O*******d
发帖数: 20343 | 1 马克吐温的“Running for Governor"在一百年前就有精彩描述。
Title: Running For Governor
Author: Mark Twain [More Titles by Twain]
A few months ago I was nominated for Governor of the great state of New York
, to run against Mr. John T. Smith and Mr. Blank J. Blank on an independent
ticket. I somehow felt that I had one prominent advantage over these
gentlemen, and that was--good character. It was easy to see by the
newspapers that if ever they had known what it was to bear a good name, that
time had gone by. It... 阅读全帖 |
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T******t
发帖数: 458 | 2 此人在FB上揭了警察局这些乱七八糟的黑幕，又是个黑人。留他活口肯定是重要不安定
因素。此人被和谐几率超高。
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/07/christopher-dorner-wri
他说的也还挺实在的：拉丁警察对拉丁移民也粗暴。亚裔警察就在旁边看着，这群废物
果然不出所料。
From: Christopher Jordan Dorner /7648
To: America
Subj: Last resort
Regarding CF# 07-004281
I know most of you who personally know me are in disbelief to hear from
media reports that I am suspected of committing such horrendous murders and
have taken drastic and shocking actions in the last couple of days. You are
saying to yourself ... 阅读全帖 |
|
S*********g
发帖数: 24893 | 3 From: Christopher Jordan Dorner /7648
To: America
Subj: Last resort
Regarding CF# 07-004281
I know most of you who personally know me are in disbelief to hear from
media reports that I am suspected of committing such horrendous murders and
have taken drastic and shocking actions in the last couple of days. You are
saying to yourself that this is completely out of character of the man you
knew who always wore a smile wherever he was seen. I know I will be vilified
by the LAPD and the media. Unfor... 阅读全帖 |
|
j****n
发帖数: 7636 | 4 Combined analysis of case-control studies of smoking and lung cancer in
China
Shun-Zhang Yu, Ning Zhao
Department of Epidemiology, Shanghai Medical University, Shanghai, China
Corresponding author.
Available online 19 March 2004
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-5002(96)90221-4, How to Cite or Link Using DOIPermissions & Reprints
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
Abstract
Fifteen case-control studies on the relationship between smoking and lung
cance... 阅读全帖 |
|
M******8
发帖数: 10589 | 5 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/devin-stewart/is-china-taking-the
Now that China's leadership transition has been completed, its new president
Xi Jinping faces numerous challenges, from
maintaining economic growth to combating corruption, pollution, and food
supply scandals. Yet disagreement has been stirring
on the best path to achieve these goals: whether Xi should relax political
control over society to match economic reforms that
began with Deng Xiaoping in 1978.
Signs suggest Xi's inclination... 阅读全帖 |
|
s*********8
发帖数: 901 | 6 Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.
Just months before being gunned down, Sheriff Eugene Crum made good on a
campaign promise to do what many in law enforcement have attempted in
southern West Virginia — crack down on drugs, especially the illegal sale
of prescription pills.
In three months and two days on the job, he'd already helped indict dozens
of suspected drug dealers through Mingo County's new Operation Zero
Tolerance.
Authorities haven't said whether tha... 阅读全帖 |
|
G***o
发帖数: 249 | 7 你怎么处理confounding factors的? |
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I********l
发帖数: 8702 | 8 我理解的理工科vs文科，可能和你的定义是不同的。通常人们是以学科来区分理工和文
科的。上了理工院校，就是理工科，上了文科院校，就是文科。我的看法不同，我更赞
同强国论坛数学网友的区分方式，也就是说，文科和理工科，只是研究领域有区别，但
是方法论是可以通用的。而生活中嘲笑的文科生，也不是因为他们读了文科，而是因为
这些人没有掌握理工科思维，也就是从数据和实证出发，应用概率统计方法论。
比如说，大家通常都说，毛泽东是文科生，是这样吗？我看不是。毛泽东是典型的理工
科思维模式。从20年代起，他就注重调查研究，而调查研究本身，就类似于做实验取得
数据，然后再对数据进行挖掘分析，再将结果拿到实践中做对比检验，从中排除干扰因
素（confounding factor）的影响，找出复杂变量之间的关联或因果关系。
当然，毛泽东最突出的理工科思维方式就是，承认自己不知道就是不知道，不迷信古人
（传统儒家），也不迷信洋人（马列主义）。毛泽东很爱学习，并且一直都是从群众中
学习，这一点，是中国文科生以及传统文人最不能做到的，文人似乎喜欢很宏大的理论
，动不动就是制度啊，选举啊，投票啊，以为这样就解决问题了。... 阅读全帖 |
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a***y
发帖数: 19743 | 9 你这篇是
我先贴那篇不是。
而且差别也很小。39周前自然生产的：
南亚：28.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 27.8-28.6
黑人：24.6%, 95% CI 24.0-25.1
白人：16.9%, 95% CI 16.8-17.1
也就十分之一。
而且这个貌似也没有control其他因素
比如营养，收入，年龄等。
我贴的那篇讨论了：
The presented results suggest that gestational length may vary by ethnicity.
However, it is possible that these results have arisen from confounding by
other variables, such as environmental factors. The number of available
variables in the dataset permits limited further exploration of this point,
although the... 阅读全帖 |
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I********l
发帖数: 8702 | 10 世界之大，无奇不有。很多事情，你没经历，自然说什么你也不信。就好象针灸麻醉，
扎几根银针，就可以剖腹，你没见过，肯定也不信嘛。
至于说可重复实验的问题，前提是要控制因变量之外的其他无关变量，也就是
confounding variables。对不对？
但是自然科学研究的是自然，而人体科学研究的是人体。自然科学的无关变量容易控制
，而人体呢？如果情绪本身就是影响到结果的变量呢？
本帖的主旨其实就是，对气功要批判性吸收，不要一概说成是迷信了。 |
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I********l
发帖数: 8702 | 11 这里把气功，特异功能，都笼统称为人体科学的研究范畴。经历了八九十年代的气功热
之后，90年代之后严打邪教，所以气功（以及特异功能）基本被打入冷宫，虽然至今卫
生部依然承认“医疗气功”，但是总体而言，主流看法是，气功（特异功能）属于伪科
学。
比如说，包括方舟子等id就指出，气功现象缺乏符合科学标准的实验结果，如双盲实验
。我没有研究过80年代气功热时国内到底做没做双盲试验，本帖只是换一个思路，从实
验设计的原理，来提出一个假说：那就是，双盲试验也好，或者现有的其他实验方法，
有可能无法测量到引起气功的隐含变量，这也导致了目前气功研究一直在误区里徘徊。
下面就简单说说我这么讲的道理。
从实验设计的原理来说，就是要测量自变量和因变量的关联，也就是说，自变量的单位
变化，引起因变量相应的单位变化，而且二者之间的关联存在统计学的显著性。简单的
表达式就是y =α*x + ε。但是我们也知道，影响因变量的可能不止一个自变量。如果
实验中存在干扰变量（confounding variable）Z，就会应先到实验结果，导致我们错
误的认为，Z引起的因变量变化，是X造成的。所以无论是生物实验，物理实验... 阅读全帖 |
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A****s
发帖数: 932 | 12 说汉语有效率的，谁能把 Stanislaw Lem 这一段话翻译成中文？注意原文是用波
兰语写的，翻成英文一点问题都没有。这些词都是用词根词头拼凑的，但是逻辑严谨，
一看就懂。
For true intelligence demands choice, internal freedom. And therefore we
have the malingerants, fudgerators, and drudge-dodgers, not to mention the
special phenomenon of simulimbecility or mimicretinism. A mimicretin is a
computer that plays stupid in order, once and for all, to be left in peace.
And I found out what dissimulators are: they simply pretend that they're not
pretending to be defective. Or perha... 阅读全帖 |
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v*******e
发帖数: 11604 | 13 当然牛顿强。
他投入神学也有当时的大环境因素。用这个来判断是没有control confounder。 |
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a*****y
发帖数: 33185 | 14 http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/aug/6/chellaney-chinas
CHELLANEY: China’s salami-slicing strategy
Beijing works incessantly to redraw political boundaries
By Brahma Chellaney - - Tuesday, August 6, 2013
China’s furtive, incremental encroachments into neighboring countries’
borderlands have emerged as a key destabilizing element in Asia. While China
’s navy and a part of its air force focus on asserting revanchist
territorial and maritime claims in the South China and East China seas, it... 阅读全帖 |
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k**********4
发帖数: 16092 | 15 社会发展程度是个confounder 。。社会发展程度高的社会可以人工改变自然条件 |
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c***h
发帖数: 1862 | 16 New York Post: Hillary could lose to Trump in Democratic New York
By Fredric Dicker
Confidential polling data shows Hillary Clinton could lose the presidential
election in heavily Democratic New York to Donald Trump as the GOP front-
runner’s support grows to the point of being “surprisingly strong,” The
Post has learned.
The poll results, from Democratic and Republican legislative races, have
surprised many leading Dems, virtually all of whom have endorsed Clinton,
while confounding and ... 阅读全帖 |
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k**********4
发帖数: 16092 | 17 跟美国相比，他们的贫苦有可能是历史文化等其他原因造成的，但是南韩北韩，东德西
德，出制度外其他都一样，没有confounder，更能说明问题 |
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D**s
发帖数: 6361 | 18 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: tnc (long shot), 信区: USANews
标 题: 民主党参议院党团谴责奥巴马的以色列政策
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Dec 27 09:31:00 2016, 美东)
以民主党参议院领袖Chuck Shumer为首的民主党议员发表
声明谴责奥巴马政府对以色列的背信弃义。这是罕见的民主党议员响应川普的例子，全
文如下：
“It is extremely frustrating, disappointing and confounding that the
Administration has failed to veto this resolution,” Schumer said. “[P]ast
Administrations – both Democrat and Republican- have protected Israel from
the vagaries of this biased institution. Unfortunately, this Administration
... 阅读全帖 |
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m*******e
发帖数: 1598 | 19 BY TINA AMIRTHA8 MINUTE READ
This story contains interviews with Christian Kästner, assistant
professor at Carnegie Mellon University; Amy Hirotaka, state policy and
advocacy manager at Code.org; and Janet Siegmund, researcher at the
University of Passau.
In order to expose more students to computer science, 17 states have passed
legislation to create basic math and science requirements in the curriculum,
rather than count them as electives. But lawmakers in Texas have made
computer program... 阅读全帖 |
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d****o
发帖数: 32610 | 20 农村社会关系简单，
本来就相对容易破案
无头案一般还是城里多
既然是城里就肯定老黑也多
这是个confounding factor
不能简单推到老黑头上 |
|
|
t**x
发帖数: 20965 | 22 From: Christopher Jordan Dorner /7648
To: America
Subj: Last resort
Regarding CF# 07-004281
I know most of you who personally know me are in disbelief to hear from
media reports that I am suspected of committing such horrendous murders and
have taken drastic and shocking actions in the last couple of days. You are
saying to yourself that this is completely out of character of the man you
knew who always wore a smile wherever he was seen. I know I will be vilified
by the LAPD and the media. Unfor... 阅读全帖 |
|
k**********4
发帖数: 16092 | 23 不是，SARS爆发时有很多事件同时发生，都有相关性，确定不了根本原因一点用没有,
相反有反作用，医学上较confounders
吧。 |
|
s******r
发帖数: 5309 | 24 Bob Woodward’s new book reveals a ‘nervous breakdown’ of Trump’s
presidency
Bob Woodward’s new book, “Fear: Trump in the White House,” is based on
hundreds of hours of in-depth interviews. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington
Post)
By Philip Rucker and
Robert Costa
September 4 at 11:08 AM
John Dowd was convinced that President Trump would commit perjury if he
talked to special counsel Robert S. Mueller III. So, on Jan. 27, the
president’s then-personal attorney staged a practice session to try to make... 阅读全帖 |
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w********2
发帖数: 632 | 25 Phylogenetic analysis
Phylogenetic analysis of gene or protein sequences for the presence of an
incongruent phylogenetic signal is considered to represent the most rigorous
method for de- tecting past HGT events (Koonin et al., 2001; Syvanen, 1994)
. Smith et al. (1992) established the basic require- ments for application
of the phylogenetic congruency test to identify and support cases of HGT.
The test com- pares the phylogenetic tree constructed from a specific
protein or gene sequence with th... 阅读全帖 |
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w********2
发帖数: 632 | 26 Inconsistent evolutionary scenarios
Deriving a parsimonious evolutionary scenario is based on the premise that
over time, genetic change is relent- less, such that distant relatives are
expected to have fewer features in common than close relatives (Koonin et al
., 2001). Therefore, the presence of some distinguishing ge- netic signal in
a distant relative but absent from more closely related organisms
contradicts this expectation. The most common causes of these anomalies are
loss of the geneti... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
发帖数: 1 | 28 How a black man ‘outsmarted’ a neo-Nazi group — and became their new
leader
One of the largest and oldest neo-Nazi groups in the United States appears
to have an unlikely new leader: James Stern, a black activist who has vowed
to dismantle it. (Rogelio V. Solis/AP)
By Katie Mettler March 2 at 10:03 AM
This story has been updated.
Without notifying his followers or even his inner circle, the longtime
president of a legacy neo-Nazi group has signed over its control to a black
civil rights activist... 阅读全帖 |
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h******g
发帖数: 209 | 29 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: hounddog (巴蒂), 信区: USANews
标 题: 纽约市的学生们以后不用为功课难发愁了。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jul 24 02:52:49 2019, 美东)
在纽约市上公校的学生们以后不用为功课难发愁了。教育局想出了好办法。再不用担心
数学不好或者阅读太差了。再按照纽约时报指示，不送孩子去补习班，以后孩子们个个
都是当议员的料。不是无脑投猪党，又有小孩但没钱读私校的还是尽快搬吧。至于华左
川黑们，希望你们坚定你们的信仰，守在纽约市，不要背叛革命，搬出去祸害其他地方
。希望华左川黑们在这种教育下多培养几个人权斗士，培养几个议员出来。加州纽约，
两大革命圣地的小朋友真幸福。加州是早早学习肛交口交拳交，纽约是专注学习革命。
怎能不让外州的老百姓羡慕嫉妒恨。华盛顿州要加油了，作为第三大革命圣地，不能输
哟。
http://nypost.com/2019/07/23/forget-reading-and-math-carranza-wants-focus-on-racial-privilege-ac... 阅读全帖 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 30 出生率下降是个confounder，饿着肚子肯定没心思干，即使没饿死那么多人也会造成总
人口减少
29
等。 |
|
|
k**********4
发帖数: 16092 | 32 这叫confounder，必须排除其他因素才能知道主要因子的作用 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 33 纽约用氯喹死亡率低，医生都承认了 off label use。 Avigan 是日本低死亡率的原
因 (~2000 测出的患者死亡不到50）。氯喹一定是中国大量快速治愈的原因。
中药confound所有有效的药 |
|
v**e
发帖数: 8422 | 34 索马里海盗杀死四美国人
4 American hostages killed by pirates, US says
By JASON STRAZIUSO and MALKHADIR M. MUHUMED, Associated Press
NAIROBI, Kenya – Four Americans taken hostage by Somali pirates off East
Africa were shot and killed by their captors Monday, the U.S. military said,
marking the first time U.S. citizens have been killed in a wave of pirate
attacks plaguing the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean for years.
U.S. naval forces, who were trailing the Americans' captured yacht with four
warships, qu... 阅读全帖 |
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s******h
发帖数: 23 | 35 god save the queen--一听这歌名就好听不了
God Save the Queen (standard version)
God save our gracious Queen,1
Long live our noble Queen,
God save the Queen:
Send her victorious,
Happy and glorious,
Long to reign over us:
God save the Queen.
O Lord, our God, arise,
Scatter her enemies,
And make them fall.
Confound their politics,
Frustrate their knavish tricks,
On Thee our hopes we fix,
God save us all.
Thy choicest gifts in store,
On her be pleased to pour;
Long may she reign:
May she defend our laws,
And |
|
i*****s
发帖数: 4596 | 36 God Save The Queen (standard version)
God save our gracious Queen,
Long live our noble Queen,
God save The Queen:
Send her victorious,
Happy and glorious,
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Long to reign over us:
God save The Queen.
O Lord our God arise,
Scatter her enemies,
And make them fall:
Confound their politics,
Frustrate their knavish tricks,
On Thee our hopes we fix:
God save us all.
Thy choicest gifts in store,
On her be pleased... 阅读全帖 |
|
a**n
发帖数: 3801 | 37 原来罗格实在没词了
God Save The Queen (standard version)
God save our gracious Queen,
Long live our noble Queen,
God save The Queen:
Send her victorious,
Happy and glorious,
Long to reign over us:
God save The Queen.
O Lord our God arise,
Scatter her enemies,
And make them fall:
Confound their politics,
Frustrate their knavish tricks,
On Thee our hopes we fix:
God save us all.
Thy choicest gifts in store,
On her be pleased to pour;
Long ... 阅读全帖 |
|
i****g
发帖数: 3896 | 38 罗格说他不喜欢用“史上最好的一届奥运会”来评价每次奥运会
估计用英国国歌里的这两个词评价也是想显得unique一点 未必是表示不满
原来罗格实在没词了
God Save The Queen (standard version)
God save our gracious Queen,
Long live our noble Queen,
God save The Queen:
Send her victorious,
Happy and glorious,
Long to reign over us:
God save The Queen.
O Lord our God arise,
Scatter her enemies,
And make them fall:
Confound their politics,
Frustrate their knavish tricks,
On Thee our hopes we fix:
God save us all.
Th... 阅读全帖 |
|
g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 39 Seven or more Senate Republicans have signaled Gov. Cuomo that they're ready
to legalize same-sex marriage, more than enough to put the controversial
and historic measure over the top this week, The Post has learned.
A highly knowledgeable Senate insider said yesterday that "far more of the [
GOP] members are in play than anyone realizes, including some surprising
names from conservative upstate areas."
Among the unexpected potential Senate Republican "yes" votes, insiders say,
are Kemp Hannon o... 阅读全帖 |
|
m******1
发帖数: 19713 | 40 The Top 10 LGBT Victories From Last Night's Election
By: Daniel Villarreal
11.7.2012
Last night's election results resulted in an awe-inspiring and monumentous
night for LGBT rights and candidates. Here's a rundown of all of them in a
handy top 10 list.
1) Despite all the "this is gonna be a close race" hype, Obama was elected
by a large margin consisting primarily of young people, Hispanics, blacks
and women "micro-targeted" by his effective get out the vote effort in
battleground states such a... 阅读全帖 |
|
B*V
发帖数: 3365 | 41 Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.
Just months before being gunned down, Sheriff Eugene Crum made good on a
campaign promise to do what many in law enforcement have attempted in
southern West Virginia — crack down on drugs, especially the illegal sale
of prescription pills.
In three months and two days on the job, he'd already helped indict dozens
of suspected drug dealers through Mingo County's new Operation Zero
Tolerance.
Authorities haven't said whether tha... 阅读全帖 |
|
a***c
发帖数: 315 | 42 Sarah Palin is not such a small-town girl after all
By James Bennett
Last Updated: 12:01am BST 09/09/2008
Have your say Read comments
It is clear that few in America, let alone Britain, have any idea what to
make of Sarah Palin. The Republicans' vice-presidential candidate confounds
the commentators because they don't understand the forces that shaped her in
the remote state of Alaska.
Senator John McCain and Republican vice-presidential nominee Alaska Governor
Sarah Palin
John McCain |
|
m******1
发帖数: 19713 | 43 【 以下文字转载自 QueerNews 讨论区 】
发信人: globalized (球球), 信区: QueerNews
标 题: GOP swings both ways on NY gay-marriage bill
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jun 13 15:41:06 2011, 美东)
Seven or more Senate Republicans have signaled Gov. Cuomo that they're ready
to legalize same-sex marriage, more than enough to put the controversial
and historic measure over the top this week, The Post has learned.
A highly knowledgeable Senate insider said yesterday that "far more of the [
GOP] members are in play than anyone realizes, ... 阅读全帖 |
|
l******a
发帖数: 3803 | 44 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-22/hyundai-teaches-uaw-be
Hyundai Confounds UAW With Good Factory Jobs
Hyundai pays top wage in the local level and workers see no
interest to join a union for nothing. Frankly, introduction
of union may drive investment outa door just as soon.
Liberal's ass bin fakid again. |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 45 I read an article in USA Today that was ironic in that the report was on how
much American originated ammo made its way into Mexico. It emphasized the
penalties in Mexico for obtaining even one illegal bullet. So, the natural
path the article took was how drug cartels used American ammo purchases from
individuals, gun shows etc., to arm themselves. What was ironic was an ATF
agent that was interviewed. His comments were of someone incredulous how so
much ammo made its way into Mexico by so many ... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 46 posted at 5:56 pm on June 15, 2012 by Erika Johnsen
President Obama and first lady Michelle Obama visited the home of actors
Sarah Jessica Parker and Matthew Broderick for a joint fundraising
appearance on Thursday night, during which the president offered the
gathered stars a rather frightening piece of flattery.
The intimate dinner banked about $2 million, with 50 people paying $40,
000 each. …
Speaking in a dimly lighted, art-filled room, Obama told supporters they
would play a critic... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 47 On Labor Day, 1980, Jimmy Carter’s presidential re-election campaign was
ahead by 4 points. On November 4, 1980, the incumbent lost by 10 points. As
I learned firsthand back then, a lot can happen in two months.
Today, as the RealClearPolitics average shows Mitt Romney down by less than
a point in his White House bid, the challenger needs “the fierce urgency of
now,” to borrow a phrase often used by Barack Obama in 2008--although he
hasn’t used it much since. Ronald Reagan had that sense of ur... 阅读全帖 |
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s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 48 刚才dodgers老兄在另外一个帖子里也提到这一点，咱们就来探讨一下。尽管观点不同
，但我喜欢你们用数据说话，而不是象版上几位，张口闭口黄茶袋。
我觉得这个11% vs 2.7% argument 有两个潜在的fallacy:
1. Multiple time windows were mentioned in the article. Let's say we talk
about post WWII, so that's less than 70 years, which means about 17
presidential terms, and certainly means fewer than 17 presidents. Statistics
tell us that any conclusions drawn from about a dozen data points won't be
reliable at all.
2. At a deeper level, I feel this is a quite classical example of
confoundi... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 49 Egypt’s New Leader Spells Out Terms for U.S.-Arab Ties
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and STEVEN ERLANGER
CAIRO — On the eve of his first trip to the United States as Egypt’s new
Islamist president, Mohamed Morsi said the United States needed to
fundamentally change its approach to the Arab world, showing greater respect
for its values and helping build a Palestinian state, if it hoped to
overcome decades of pent-up anger.
A former leader of the Muslim Brotherhood and Egypt’s first democratically
elect... 阅读全帖 |
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S*********g
发帖数: 24893 | 50 From: Christopher Jordan Dorner /7648
To: America
Subj: Last resort
Regarding CF# 07-004281
I know most of you who personally know me are in disbelief to hear from
media reports that I am suspected of committing such horrendous murders and
have taken drastic and shocking actions in the last couple of days. You are
saying to yourself that this is completely out of character of the man you
knew who always wore a smile wherever he was seen. I know I will be vilified
by the LAPD and the media. Unfor... 阅读全帖 |
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