m*h
发帖数: 85 | 1 hehe, when gold standard comes back, government loses power to inflate any
enonomy, like now, japanese style deep deflation is expected. |
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h*9
发帖数: 38 | 2 The 1970 recession is as severe as 1929 recession if adjusted for inflation.
But the drop in equity price is much different, one is close to 90% and
other is only 50%. One had a bear mkt for 20 years, another has it only for
3 years. IMHO, the key question is how gov will respond to this crisis, i.e.
how much $ they will print out from thin air.
1929, with gold standard, the world got into a deflation spiral, the winner
of next 20 years is of course bond.
If one buy bond in 1970 and hold it thro |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 4 Houses in Seattle: down 20% from peak.
It |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 5 Mortgage rate: sub 5% and dropping. |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 6 Hyundai's new promotion: if you lose you job, we pay two monthly payment
for you. If that still doesn't help, you can return your car. |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 7 National highest savings/MM account rate: dropped from 4% to 3.15% or so
in less than 2 months. |
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s**********d
发帖数: 36899 | 9
房产、油价都不算吧。要日用品。。。昨天去汽车年检，看到好多维护项目都比
五六年前高50%。。。 |
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x******n
发帖数: 1328 | 10 最重要的是工资在降。我们公司的几家竞争对手都给全体员工降12%~20%
工资了。我一同事还戏言说相当于我们涨了1x%的工资。不过昨天就收到
公司头儿的信说可能会给大家降工资。
裁员也是一种变相的降工资。 |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 11 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tonys (基因决定人生) 于 (Mon Oct 6 22:36:40 2008) 提到:
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Wohui (我不会) 于 (Mon Oct 6 23:20:16 2008) 提到:
M3 2006年后的估计准确度高吗？简直是脱缰野马
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
jiangh (jiang) 于 (Mon Oct 6 23:27:13 2008) 提到:
Pictures show inflation.
Future is not certain. There are many possible causes:
1. Fallen asset prices.
2. Insolvent companies. (e.g., AIG)
3. Insolvent banks. (too many to list)
4. Fear of insolve |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 12 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
erdong (wade) 于 (Tue Oct 14 20:56:47 2008) 提到:
我们需要从有决定权的人的角度去考虑，就是那些控制华尔街，美国的利益集团。
对他们来说，适当的inflation是好的，但是hyperinflation绝对是不可接受的，要这
样，他们宁可让GS倒闭。
道理很简单，hyperinflation，谁的损失最大？美元持有者，中国那些显然是小头。大
部分在美国老百姓和有钱人手中，hyperinflation 会让这些财富清0，姑且不说社会动
荡，就对那些决策者，这也是最坏的情况，是绝不能发生的。
1930年代的魏玛共和国发生superinflation，包括现在的赞米比亚，那是因为他们自己
没有决定权，当时的德国你如果有几个美元，简直比上帝还幸福，这可能在美国发生吗？
鉴于美国仍然一超独大，我认定hyperinflation不会发生，10%inflation很有可能，但
这个对房市，股市是坏消息，意味着高利率，另外老百姓的disposable income会减少 |
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c*****s
发帖数: 16 | 13 你有孩子吗，你有房子吗，你有汽车吗。光是托儿所可就没见deflation啊 |
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i******l
发帖数: 828 | 14 去年米国家庭财富平均减少18% （this is fact)
Below are mine..
今年继续减少18-20%
中国童鞋s stand to gain because you guys are still earning and saving
退休人士最惨，估计减少了30%以上
有房人士估计平均财富减少了30%以上，多的应该有50%（比如我老一个同事，三处房产）
没房，三十5，6岁以下，两个人工作的，是最大赢家，财富应该木有大的缩水。
将近四十或者以上的，如果失去工作，那就比较恶心了。
deflation force is still in charge.
conclusion---只要耗过今年不赔钱，这次大局就基本进入收官阶段。中国童鞋胜出，
米国婴儿潮退休生活彻底完蛋 |
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u****d
发帖数: 2578 | 15 this is not true. say, 90% of the shares fo Company A were bought at $1
before the bubble was inflated, then 5% was traded at $100 when the bubble
was inflated half-way, and 5% was traded/bought at $1000 when the bubble was
at its full swing. The market cap of A has grown 100 times, but how much
real money was actually invested in? The average cost of the shares is less
than $2, and far less than $1000. So, when the bubble deflate, all the so
called wealth destruction is on paper. |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 16 St Louis FED M1: The plunging ratio suggests that little of this base money
is
actually making its way into M1.
St Louis FED Reserve Bank Credit: Base money is sitting in bank reserves. In
other words, banks are not lending.
Debt level: The debt chain is in deflation. On the other side of debt, there
's
the credit. Without credits, where is the inflation?!
泡沫经济崩溃之后，印
了20年的钞票，也通缩了20年，到近几年才开始微微通脹。 |
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l****n
发帖数: 6773 | 17 bank will sell all its mortgage, MBS to 2F
and Fed also will buy 500 billion MBS
At last, deflation is over.
Fed |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 18 Yes, we are trying to take out as mush cash as possible. Hopefully we
can reach the group w/ the help of mark-to-myth
and stretch hands to Treasury/FED for bailouts.
Wow, then I can pay bonus to myself. o)<
BTW, it's a deflation play. Cash is the king. |
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 19 if deflation, the tips rate is also 0??
also, mmf consists a lot of tips? |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 20 They are under 1-25 leverage, in other words, worse than Fed would like
to see in worst situation. In other words, they are insolvent if Fed doesn't
keep them float.
And regarding unemployment rate a lagging indicator, check this out.
I don't necessarily agree all these points, but it's true this is the
first deflational recession since 1930 and you don't take it for granted
either.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/faith-based-economics/
“Normally, labor markets lag the economy because incre |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 21 The bond market is calling Bernanke's bluff.
Fed can go on buying more long bonds for sure, but it is DANGEROUS.
By the way, higher interests --> deflation, hoho |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 22
How is current situation better than 1930-32? How is that even
possible?
In 30s, government didn't have the burden of massive national debt
and welfare programs. Manufacture business was still strong in US
unlike now being moved to overseas. Dollar was on gold standard so
government could not inflate like crazy to steal people's money when
they needed it the most. Deflation therefore actually helped the
people w/o income. Individuals didn't have credit card debt and
mortgage payment piled up to |
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k**o
发帖数: 15334 | 23 Deflation was the biggest problem of the Great Depression. Once you are in a
deflationary spiral, it's hard to climb out, economy will keep shrinking.
Inflation is healthy for the economy if it is under control. |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 24 I hope the deflation trade came back from last week.
Not bad 10-year auction, terrific 30-year auction.... Let's see if we
can get more this week. |
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G******t
发帖数: 1782 | 27 it just ruins the party for all bankers, that is all. if the $1 i saved last
year is worth much more goods next year, i am much happier. |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 29 I am w/ you 100%. It's good for us who save and live within our means.
Banksters (and their agent FED) don't want it. But whether they can
successfully re-inflate? So far NO,hoho.
last |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 30 I suggest you reduce your position ... |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 31 I suggest him to reduce the speed to add puts, but not reduce the
position, hehe. |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 32 xie xie...
After TNX touched 4 I sold all TLT puts in 2 days.
Index puts are out to deep 2010,hehe,mouse-sized balls I have. |
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m*h
发帖数: 85 | 33 inflation expectaion is gone, so is speculation. inflation has never come.
wage growth is down a lot, deflation threat is real |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 34 If you believe inflation, bond fund is a bad choice.
If you believe deflation, bond fund is the best choice. |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 35 DBA is the absolute long term investment for me. So what I am doing is
very simple: DCA every month.
I have been doing this since the beginning of this year and I don't have
a plan to end it any time soon.
I don't really buy other commodities for long term right now. Because I
feel there will be sort of deflation before the long-term inflation trend
starts. However, this is too hard to predict for me. So I started DBA
earlier just in case. |
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G******t
发帖数: 1782 | 36 Robert Prechter 为代表的是认为要通货紧缩一阵子的
Peter D. Schiff 为代表的是认为要高通胀的
现在能下定论了么? |
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K******l
发帖数: 39 | 38 Peter 是说要high inflation， more than 70s, but not hyperinflation
Marc faber is 100% sure for hyperinflation
Jim Rogers: inflation holocaust
If there is no second Paul Volcker, hyperinflation is sure.
If there is, annual payment on national debt will surpass fed gov revenue. |
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h****h
发帖数: 1168 | 39 http://www.indexuniverse.com/sections/features/6438-tips-still-a-bargain.html?Itemid=5
Heading into the second half of 2009, Treasury Inflation-Protected
Securities have been a success story few probably imagined a year ago.
Inflation is still a source of debate. Indeed, many investors say they're
still more concerned about deflation. So from a near-term view, what is
driving a dramatic reversal in fortunes in TIPS funds this year?
Consider the most popular exchange-traded fund in the group. Tha |
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l******n
发帖数: 641 | 40 in the deflation case, china has a good opportunity to exit the us bond mark
et, which i don't think that's the case.
after |
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 41 I'll bet the quantitative easing will continue in some fashion and the
fed has no exit strategy whatsoever. The fed has zero credibility to me
in terms of monetary policy.
The politicians, bankers and general public all prefer an inflationary
policy rather than a deflationary one, even when deflation is the clear
answer to the structure problem while inflation is the cancer.
We all hope for the best but unfortunately the human history is full of
darkness.
sustained
I'm |
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 42 Commodities are fair picks but still subject to deflating price pressure,
if the black swan event of another depression hits the world again. Gold
is the only exception as it's more of currency than commodity. It's
probably the least useful stuff but the ultimate hedge to deteriorating
sovereign solvency. Gold is not the best hedge for inflation, but it's the
best hedge for political stupidity. |
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m******t
发帖数: 165 | 43 Housing crash, stock crash are the results of deflating money supply. That
is the entire problem. We have borrowed from the future for 50 years. We
have inflated the money supply. The future is here. It is pay back time.
When an entire population goes from expansion into debt payment mode, prices
will not stay the same. This is a ponzi scheme. Housing, stocks, 401k all
require that a new generation of suckers appear to buy them from previous
investors. But in this case, that generation does not |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 44 IRX dives to 0.005% today.
I believe people are smelling deflation to pile on short end Ts.
修改一下: 与地佛雷神无关，可能是周五某个大银行要崩，或者美国以外的什么
玩意要崩(日本?)，昨天和今天，五年，两年，二十六周和十三周国债收益大跌。
Yes, I know, this is so 2008, hoho.
But /DX & SPX correlation is cracking today as well. Coincidence?
to |
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s***w
发帖数: 521 | 46 if printing money will prevent it, how couldn't Jap do that? |
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h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 47 Printing money is bad for savers. Japan is a nation of savers just like
China. But unlike China, it is a democratic country with elected officers,
so the political obstacle to massively print the money is very strong.
It would be a political suicide to carry QE to extreme in Japan, but it
would be much easier here in US given the majority of populations are not
savers here in US. My local area has 60% of the household that have negative
equity in their houses. So it become so easy to push the ho |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 48
Deflation is not a bad thing. It's only bad for those who make the wrong
investment and then have to go bankrupt. To bail them out, you have to
take money away from people who did the right thing. That's wrong from
both moral standard and business standard.
It's wrong morally b/c it basically says that you can gamble all you
want. If you make a profit, keep it. If you fail, then we force other
people to cover your loss. It's not fair or legal.
It's wrong from a business point of view b/c those |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 49
There you go. That's the problem. They don't want short term deflation
pain but a long term currency collapse down the road. |
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s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 50 But the problem is there will not be any "good assets" at all in a totally
destructive deflation, at least in the early stage. Good assets turn bad
when deleveraging continues so that no one dare to vulture anything, except
the government.
The problem is till what point the deleveraging can stop, and real vulture
investors can come in. It may not be at the final natural point (almost no
leverage at all), but given the massive leveraged nature of our economy, I
do think a
factor of 10 is not mere |
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