m****p
发帖数: 865 | 1 继习总龙袍之后，经济学人隆重推出安倍cosplay
WHEN Shinzo Abe resigned after just a year as prime minister, in September
2007, he was derided by voters, broken by chronic illness, and dogged by the
ineptitude that has been the bane of so many recent Japanese leaders. Today
, not yet five months into his second term, Mr Abe seems to be a new man. He
has put Japan on a regime of “Abenomics”, a mix of reflation, government
spending and a growth strategy designed to jolt the economy out of the
suspended animation that ... 阅读全帖 |
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D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 2 China's shadow banking system is out of control and under mounting stress as
borrowers struggle to roll over short-term debts, Fitch Ratings has warned.
Fitch warned that wealth products worth $2 trillion of lending are in
reality a "hidden second balance sheet" for banks, allowing them to
circumvent loan curbs and dodge efforts by regulators to halt the excesses.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The agency said the scale of credit was so extreme that the country would
find it very hard to grow its wa... 阅读全帖 |
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D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 3 China Stimulated Its Economy Like Crazy After The Financial Crisis ... And
Now The Nightmare Is Beginning
http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-excess-capacity-problem-2
China is seeing slower economic growth.
Concerns are building over a massive credit bubble, and some say it is no
longer an engine of global growth.
Excess capacity — in which demand for products is less than potential
supply — continues to be one of China's biggest problems.
An excellent piece by Jamil Anderlini in today's Fina... 阅读全帖 |
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s*****r
发帖数: 11545 | 4 Once they are paid, their passion deflates. |
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S*****s
发帖数: 7520 | 5 Will China shake the world again?
COMMENTS (455)
China's exceptional growth has been fuelled by massive debt and government s
ubsidies as Robert Peston reports from Wuhan
More from Robert
Who loses from punishing Russia?
Is Standard Life alone?
Standard Life could quit Scotland
Co-op to report worst results in history
Unless you are an aficionado of the great moments of Chinese Communist histo
ry, you probably won't have heard of Wuhan (it is the site of Chairman Mao's
legendary swim across the ... 阅读全帖 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 6 White women are getting fatter
60 years ago, a white American woman was a highly coveted prized. She was
the ideal feminine house wife who respects her man. She also knows how to
cook, clean, treats her man with respect and raise the children to be
upstanding citizens.
But now? They have balloon into a land whale, a monster of some sort,
munching on oreo cookies and riding on scooters. They claim their obese tier
BMI is “healthy” and “beauty comes in all shapes and sizes”
So when the white men b... 阅读全帖 |
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c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 7 不知道怎么说你了，日本的问题很严重的，现在是出于deflation, BOJ刚刚宣布了新的
一轮QE(就在Fed宣布美国的QE收手后1，2天的事情)，BOJ的governor已经说了QE是没办
法的，BOJ现在的目标就是要把通胀给提高到2%/year,在达到这个目的之前，日本会不
停得印钞票买自己的国债 ...
日本单方面QE的一个直接的结果就是日元贬值，基本上就是货币战了，美国知道日本（
或者说只能assume）的意图是benign的，但是，货币战的苦果还是要全世界来吞的。
你太无知了，多读点书，知道的越多就会越谦虚，不会开这种帖子的。 |
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S*********4
发帖数: 5125 | 8 美联储将结束零利率，美元将进入升息周期
来源: 虎落平原 于 2014-12-14 10:05:57 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文
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BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve would give the clearest signal
next week that its easy money stance is ending if, as some expect, it drops
its two-year long pledge to keep interest rates close to zero for a "
considerable time".
The Fed, which meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, f... 阅读全帖 |
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f********8
发帖数: 5601 | 9 最新一期的Economist认为2015的全球经济形势会类似1990s后期：
（1）美国经济在high tech的帮助下稳健增长。并且这波的high tech出现bubble的风
险不大；
（2）欧洲几乎零增长，反欧盟的政治诉求可能成为主流；
（3）日本进入deflation，和1990s末期很象。
（4）新兴市场有金融风险，上次是泰诛，这次是卢布。
个人认为这个和历史的对比还是很聪明的，Economist比一般的财经杂志更有大局观。 |
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g*q
发帖数: 26623 | 10 2014的GDP deflator很低啊，只有1%左右，比美国还低了。
7年超美还是太乐观了，除非靠改变统计口径。
主题 |
|
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b******r
发帖数: 1619 | 12 By Robert Schroeder
Published: Feb 11, 2015 11:06 a.m. ET
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — President Barack Obama used a phone call with
China’s president to pressure Beijing to let the market set the value of
the Chinese currency.
Obama spoke to President Xi Jinping on Tuesday night, the White House said
in a statement early Wednesday morning. According to the White House
statement: “The president encouraged China to continue its move toward
consumption-led growth and a market-determined exchange rat... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********g
发帖数: 30882 | 13 美网民热议:多数美国人距离睡大街只有一步之遥
文章来源: Marketwatch 于 2015-02-12 21:53:24 - 新闻取自各大新闻媒体，新闻内
容并不代表本网立场！
打印本新闻 (被阅读 32964 次)
1
虽然美国人现在感觉就业与经济的状况已经有了好转，但在理论上其中大多数离睡大街
只有一步之遥
大约有62%的美国人没有应急储蓄，而一次急诊需要1000美元，一次汽车维修则需要500
美元。个人理财网站Bankrate.com对大约1000名成年人的调查表明，在面对紧急情况是
这些人中的26%会通过减少其他支出来筹集资金、其他16%会从家人或朋友借款、12%的
人会使用信用卡。
Urban Institute的高级研究员麦克南说“应急储蓄并不仅仅对紧急事件很重要，对于
养老以及保有自己的住房同样非常重要”
美国联邦储备理事会去年发布的一项涉及4000多位成年人的调查表达了类似的观点。这
项研究发现，在经济衰退后许多家庭的存款在减少。在2008年之前有银行存款的家庭中
，有57%的家庭说他们已经在经济危机及之后的日子动用了一部分甚至全部的存款。更
重要的是,只有39%... 阅读全帖 |
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f******d
发帖数: 2394 | 14 公开点名中俄，为示公平，搭上小兄弟沙特。在中国股市开始下跌前，中国政府被人民
币国际化和亚投行的“光辉”绑架不能主动让人民币崩盘前，是最后的逃离机会。
Once Over $12 Trillion, the World’s Currency Reserves Are Now Shrinking
Bloomberg Business
The decade-long surge in foreign-currency reserves held by the world’s
central banks is coming to an end.
Global reserves declined to $11.6 trillion in March from a record $12.03
trillion in August 2014, halting a five-fold increase that began in 2004,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While the drop may be overstated
becaus... 阅读全帖 |
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s*******n
发帖数: 10 | 15 The part about Stalin is totally wrong. He was deflated and depressed in
late 1941. He retreated to his dacha and waited for his punishment. Only
when the politburo came begging did he reemerged with a brave face. |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 16 "The money was all appropriated for the top in the hopes that it would
trickle down to the needy."
Will Rogers, Nov 26, 1932
“Trickle-down theory - the less than elegant metaphor that if one feeds the
horse enough oats, some will pass through to the road for the sparrows.”
John Kenneth Galbraith
"It is no exaggeration to say that since the 1980s, much of the global
financial sector has become criminalised, creating an industry culture that
tolerates or even encourages systematic fraud."
Charles ... 阅读全帖 |
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d*****s
发帖数: 5610 | 17 这个早就说了，大陆现在是capital misallocation厉害，和当年苏联一样的，次早经
济会变慢。
铁路那些负债只能靠通货膨胀解决，票价通货膨胀上去，希望最终铁路的收入能还掉旧
的本息，而不用借新钱。
如果和日本一样deflation，中国经济必然完蛋。 |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 18 The only way for Greece to compete is to compete on price, but they do not
have a currency that they can devalue. Cut salaries? I am not aware of any
nation ever deflate their way out of economic problems. |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 19 yes, U.S. will do whatever it takes to avoid deflation, and regarding high
inflation, U.S. can say been there done that.
[在 Galleon (盖伦) 的大作中提到：]
：对。这是德国和美国货币政策的最大区别。
：
：........... |
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d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 20 确实适当的inflation对经济有好处， 促进消费， 促进投资。
欧洲中世纪的时候非常suffer deflation， 贫富分化后有钱人把钱攥的死死的。 |
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j***h
发帖数: 3205 | 21 Will China's slowdown make us poorer?
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34046942
There has never been an economic story like China's - consistent rises in
national income for 30 years at an annual rate of 10%, hundreds of millions
of Chinese people lifted out of poverty, and expansion that took it from
almost nowhere to become the world's second biggest economy, contributing 15
% of global GDP and 25% of global GDP growth.
So it is no exaggeration to say that the story of the world economy since
... 阅读全帖 |
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O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 22 你别他妈犯傻了
gdp的总数是nominal gdp
天朝公布的7是real gdp growth 天朝上半年的gdp deflator<0
上半年天朝的nominal gdp growth是6.5 去掉2.5的贬值
只有4
傻粪蠢的连猪都不如
的。 |
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i***a
发帖数: 4718 | 23 http://www.japantoday.com/category/business/view/japan-inc-soun
TOKYO —
Do not believe in official statistics, Japanese retailers seem to be saying,
as they cut earnings forecasts and warn of lackluster consumer spending, a
key growth engine for Japan at a time when exports and factory output are
stalling.
If you go by the larger-than-expected 2.9% gain in household spending in
August - the first year-on-year rise in three months - then consumption
looks like it is finally alive and well again, ... 阅读全帖 |
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m**i
发帖数: 9848 | 24 cpi is dragged by oil price decline. the core-cpi, which excludes food and
energy, is quite stable. there is no deflation for now.
yes, the stock mkt will be bearish in the next few quarters. |
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g*q
发帖数: 26623 | 25 按gdp deflator 算没那么多，也就2万8,到现在正好翻倍。70年代美国通胀很厉害。 |
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r*****1
发帖数: 3465 | 26 If Trump were to get elected and actually put his tariff into effect, it
would reverse a 20-year trend of declining prices for many consumer goods,
which has helped offset the rising cost of important things like healthcare
and college tuition and occasional spikes in the cost of energy. Overall
inflation, excluding food and energy, is a scant 2% at the moment, a level
so low that economists worry more about deflation than inflation. But a big
tariff on imports would quickly make inflation a big... 阅读全帖 |
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g*q
发帖数: 26623 | 27 钢材石油价格跌那么狠,GDP deflator为负不是明显的事么. |
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o**********e
发帖数: 18403 | 28
安培外祖KISHI等人1928-1945 推销“战争”
，以此解决日本DEFLATION，失业问题。
安培现在搞的货币战争也是同一套。
贬值日元，倾销日货，特别是废弃
和平宪法，为南海诸小国摇旗呐喊，
国际上抹黑中国。 这些都是为了日本
进而制造核武，贩卖军火，发动第三次
对华战争做的准备。
日本发动战争有以下4个特点：
1. 君子”报仇“百年未晚。他们准备非常仔细，充分。 特别是长期的情报工作
2. 准备包括：全世界抹黑受害者。 完成以后，继续抹黑受害者
3. 先发制人，喜欢偷袭
4. 误导，离间，挑拨，威逼，利诱。 各种阴招。非常厉害。 |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 29 When you are in deflation, your currency worth more as time goes by. |
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t******g
发帖数: 4044 | 30 天行者.耶伦 (Yellen Skywalker)在长廊中缓缓前行。尽管几乎看不到光亮，但原力在
引导她的脚步。很快，她感觉到了她父亲-通缩.维德 (Deflation Vader)的存在。
维德刺耳的嗓音打破了寂静：“我一直在等你。在你身上，我能感到原力的强大。很好
，皇帝早已预见到了你力量的增长，并相信你在未来会成为我们的盟友。来吧，是时候
加入我们，一起恢复宇宙的秩序吧！”
“你错了维德，我决不堕入黑暗面！”
“哈哈哈，黑暗面？什么黑暗面？难道欧比旺.本.伯南克从来没有告诉你原力的真正本
质？”
“什么本质？”耶伦困惑的问道。
“原力无处不在，它在追寻和谐与平衡。它既非光明也非黑暗，只是在循环轮转。正如
有山峰就有山谷，有光线就有阴影，作用力与反作用力。生命即是如此。你对原力光明
一面的信念，以及你为实现它而竭力制造通胀的努力，令人感动，但却适得其反。“维
德继续说道：“低利率和债务本身既非通胀也非通缩，只有当其失去平衡、不再和谐时
，才会变成光明或黑暗的工具。你看，我的杰迪，当人们举债时，它推动了通胀，当人
们还债时，它带来了通缩。你越是用低利率和信贷扩张制造通胀，试图将原力引... 阅读全帖 |
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t******g
发帖数: 4044 | 31 原文
Yellen Skywalker inched down the corridor. There was barely any light, but
the force guided her steps. Soon she felt the presence of her father,
Deflation Vader. His voice rasped out a greeting. “I have been expecting
you. I can feel that the force is strong with you. Good. The Emperor has
foreseen that your powers would grow, and that you would become our ally. It
is time for you to join me and restore order to the universe!” “You are
wrong Vader – I would never go to dark side!” “Ha ha ha –... 阅读全帖 |
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k********k
发帖数: 5617 | 32 http://blog. .net/u/10816/201611/271839.html
川普與自戀型人格 行走的教科書
KY主創KnowYourself
美國大選已經接近尾聲。川普（Donald Trump），則在過去幾個月的時間裏，穩定地占
據著各大媒體的“最熱”文章榜單標題。
由於川普種種離經叛道的行為，他的人格已經成為心理學家和媒體的熱議話題。紐約時
報評論稱，“這是美國政治史上獨一無二的時刻：一個主要政黨的提名人是否有穩定的
精神狀態竟然成了街談巷議的話題。”
心理學家們認為，川普的人格的核心特質是自戀。臨床心理學家George Simon表示，由
於川普作為自戀型人格來說太過經典，已經成為一部自戀型人格的“行走的教科書”，
因而他保存了川普的不少視頻剪輯，作為課程和討論的素材使用，而不必再專門找演員
拍攝(McAdams, 2016)。
而隨著關於他的人格的討論越來越多，近幾個月來，1979年發表的“自戀型人格清單”
（NPI）測試竟然重新開始病毒式傳播(Tolentino, 2016)。今年8月，有2.8萬人集體請
願，要求川普去檢查是否患有自戀型人格障礙。
所以... 阅读全帖 |
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g*q
发帖数: 26623 | 33 如果以80年为基点,三哥这35年的人均增长率跟美国没差多少.世行数据,印度80-15年从
272长到1598,不到5.9倍,美国12598到56116,接近4.5倍.中国195到8028,40多倍.
另外根据美国bea数据,2016年美元购买力按GDP deflator计算为80年的40%.就是说过去
35年印度人均增长135%(年均2.5%),美国78%(年均1.7%),中国超过1500%(年均8.3%). |
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t******l
发帖数: 10908 | 34 允许 title inflation 为啥就不允许 title deflation？。。。你这属于歧视。。。
: 尼玛胡扯，985一般都是省里面top1，2的学校了。
: 别的学校虽然没有那么好，但也不是技校。
|
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E*********9
发帖数: 244 | 35 The biggest problem for bitcoin is that it causes deflation. |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 36 Let's print shall we? Hyperinflation at any cost until bust baby. There's no
choice left for the warmongers because the country is falling into third
world status with its' rotting infrastructure system. Washington politicians
jail more people than Russia and China combined in order for Judges and
Cops to put the dividends in their pension plans. They trade and get rich
while in Office. There's not enough tax money coming in any more because of
deflation and demographics. The baby-boomer generat... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 37 如果你能把它翻译成中文就好了。最烦在中文网站看英文。
: Let's print shall we? Hyperinflation at any cost until bust baby.
There's no
: choice left for the warmongers because the country is falling into
third
: world status with its' rotting infrastructure system. Washington
politicians
: jail more people than Russia and China combined in order for Judges
and
: Cops to put the dividends in their pension plans. They trade and get
rich
: while in Office. There's not enough tax money coming in any m... 阅读全帖 |
|
W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 38 These Will Be the World's Top Economies in 2020 By Julia Hawley | Updated
June 27, 2016 — 11:07 AM EDT
By the year 2020, a great shift will have occurred in the worldwide balance
of economic power. Analysts predict emerging market economies will become
some of the most important economic forces, and China will take the top spot
in the list of the world’s largest economies by gross domestic product (
GDP), both outright and measured in terms of purchasing power parity.
The Current Top Economies o... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 39 a person who believes that people are motivated purely by self-interest
rather than acting for honorable or unselfish reasons.
我是在新东方学会了cynic这个词，刚刚好好看了一下definition,感觉时间才是真神啊
。。。我很少用cynic这个词，因为我不是。。。这15年已经证明这一点了。。。
"some cynics thought that the controversy was all a publicity stunt"
a person who questions whether something will happen or whether it is
worthwhile.
"the cynics were silenced when the factory opened"
synonyms: skeptic, doubter, doubting Thomas; More
pessimist, prop... 阅读全帖 |
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s*l
发帖数: 9421 | 40 不客气。话说天下分久必合合久必分，cryptocoin 数字加密货币看来也具有此趋势。
如果法币是合，是中心化货币完全是由政府控制，那比特币就是分，是去中心化货币；
如果法比是中央银行控制，那么比特币则是由分散在民间的电脑来控制；如果说法币的
转账需要通过昂贵的中央银行来记录每笔交易，那比特币转账只需把记录分存在世界各
地电脑的硬盘上。如果你用有一个比特币，它如何到你的钱包全世界的电脑上都有相同
的记录，人类无法篡改，类似于你的每一根头发的dna 与你皮肤的dna没有差异。如果
法币它是可以随意发行转嫁金融危机，如津巴布韦亿元面值钞票泛滥，那比特币的数量
是由自然规律数学为基础来决定发行数量，限定2200万枚。所以有人说比特币是是真正
的人民币，是democrcy 货币，是未来世界的货币。
自2009年金融危机爆发，美国一方面通过量化宽松转嫁金融危机，同时又不断调高国债
ceiling 来通过预算，这种左右手互搏的金融政策贻害无穷，它只会加重对中产阶级的
不断掠夺，于是一种对抗中央货币的去中央化的deflation币应运而生了，所以它是带
着使命来的，是为了对抗政府的邪恶。这是其产生的... 阅读全帖 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 41 EARNING MONEY IS WAY BETTER THAN EARNING IVY DEGREES BECAUSE THE LATTER
BECOMES MORE AND MORE DEFLATED NOWADAYS!
SO YOUNG FELLOWS, GO THINK ABOUT MAKING MONEY AS THE PRIORITY. |
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q******s
发帖数: 7469 | 42 连重庆这种欠发达地区很多制造业都在爆。持续了27年的经济扩张终于要危机一下了。
其实爆一爆也好，否则都不知道自己几斤几两了 |
|
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q******s
发帖数: 7469 | 45 尼玛这板上是有很多机器人还是有很多pj啊。土鳖的ai太厉害，现在已经看不懂了 |
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g*q
发帖数: 26623 | 46 16年工资基本上比90年上涨一倍（SSA数据，更早的数据比较难找）
房价涨了超过两倍（case shiller指数）。
油价至少涨了2倍，EIA的数据，上个礼拜全国平均汽油价格2.943，最早有数据的93年7
月1.069，布什打伊拉克之前又低得多
医疗费用更不用说了，88年全美医疗保健支出是5400亿，现在已接近4万亿了。
当然也有降价的，比如电脑电器，衣服。
美国官方估计88-17年物价上涨接近90%（按GDP deflator计算）。按老百姓关注的商品
和服务算，比90%多。如果没有了便宜的中国货，衣服电器再涨价，那生活水平就不如
88年了。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 47 就看美国能否尽快扶持其他落后国家的供应商，替换中国货了
[在 gjq (不好啦,咕咚掉到井里啦) 的大作中提到：]
:房价涨了超过两倍（case shiller指数）。
:油价至少涨了2倍，EIA的数据，上个礼拜全国平均汽油价格2.943，最早有数据的93年
7月1.069，布什打伊拉克之前又低得多
:医疗费用更不用说了，88年全美医疗保健支出是5400亿，现在已接近4万亿了。
:当然也有降价的，比如电脑电器，衣服。
:美国官方估计88-17年物价上涨接近90%（按GDP deflator计算）。按老百姓关注的商
品和服务算，比90%多。如果没有了便宜的中国货，衣服电器再涨价，那生活水平就不
如 |
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发帖数: 1 | 48 星期一将对60人发出质询，包含聚聚家的大总管歪搜博格，儿子小疮婆。
House Judiciary chair Jerry Nadler says Trump obstructed justice, will
request documents from 60-plus people in president’s circle
PUBLISHED 2 HOURS AGO | UPDATED AN HOUR AGO
Dan Mangan
@_DANMANGAN
KEY POINTS
Rep. Jerry Nadler said he believes President Donald Trump has obstructed
justice,
Nadler, D-NY, said his Judiciary Committee will request documents from more
than 60 people in the White House, the Justice Department, and the Trump
Organization — including t... 阅读全帖 |
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b*********3
发帖数: 1709 | 49 Why The United States Won't Launch A Ground War Versus Iran
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-22/why-united-states-wont-launch-
ground-war-versus-iran
China and Russia have warned Washington too that it must not attack Iran.
Iran has guarantees from Russia, China, Pakistan, Turkey, and even Japan and
India that its economic future is secure… despite US sanctions.
So, only Saudia remains as a host for US aggression versus Iran. But Saudia
has much to lose by hosting US aggression, especiall... 阅读全帖 |
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s*f
发帖数: 1071 | 50 65岁老棺材囊子liuhe，不但是个科盲还是个文盲
说小将剽窃，按照你的定义，不正是你个傻逼剽窃军港之夜在先。
你抡起一个大嘴巴最后落到你那张傻逼脸上。疼不疼啊。
无论西方还是东方文学史，滑稽模仿向来是重要文类，叫 Burlesque也好,叫parody也
好,还是叫 travesty，都是用戏谑方式模仿对方并解构对方文本。唐吉坷德尤利西斯这
些西方名著都是模仿讽刺典范 你个傻逼懂不懂
你读得懂英语吗，给你布置个作业，拿本字典回家慢慢读读。
Burlesque has been succinctly defined as "an incongruous imitation"; that is
, it imitates the manner (the form and style) or else the subject matter of
a serious literary work or a literary genre, in verse or in prose, but makes
the imitation amusing by ar idiculous disparity... 阅读全帖 |
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