s*f
发帖数: 1071 | 1 除了唱通俗歌曲，你读得懂英语吗，给你布置个作业，拿本字典回家慢慢读读。
Burlesque has been succinctly defined as "an incongruous imitation"; that is
, it imitates the manner (the form and style) or else the subject matter of
a serious literary work or a literary genre, in verse or in prose, but makes
the imitation amusing by ar idiculous disparity between the manner and the
matter. The burlesque may be written for the sheer fun of it; usually,
however, it is a form of satire. The butt of the satiricr idiculem ay be the
particular ... 阅读全帖 |
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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 2 David Pilling, Japan's splendid isolation may be at risk. Financial Times,
Apr. 15, 2010.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/943e1104-4826-11df-b998-00144feab49a.html
(1) Excerpt in the print: Only eight months after an opposition party
finally wrestled power from the crusty Liberal Democrats, disillusion has
set in.
(2) Quote:
"falling nominal output [caused by 15 years of deflation] has accelerated
Japan's relative economic decline.
"Japan has experienced nothing like the backlash visited upon China, e |
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J*V
发帖数: 3150 | 3 China Stimulated Its Economy Like Crazy After The Financial Crisis ... And
Now The Nightmare Is Beginning
http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-excess-capacity-problem-2
China is seeing slower economic growth.
Concerns are building over a massive credit bubble, and some say it is no
longer an engine of global growth.
Excess capacity — in which demand for products is less than potential
supply — continues to be one of China's biggest problems.
An excellent piece by Jamil Anderlini in today's Fina... 阅读全帖 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 4 Pop! Why the Obama Bubble Has Collapsed
September 10, 2008 11:04 AM ET | James Pethokoukis
The Obama campaign seems to have experienced a "Minsky Moment." That, as any
financial bubblologist worth his weight in tulips knows, is the particular
point in time when no more "greater fools" can be found to support a bubble
and a Great Deflation finally begins. Sssssss. (The financial phenomenon is
named after economist Hyman Minksy.)
Now Obama's Minsky Moment is morphing into the McCain Moment. The ev |
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L****a
发帖数: 572 | 5 我觉得说的挺有道理的。其实美国的问题和希腊，西班牙一样，那就是
Real Wage 和很多国家比仍然太高。由于 Real Wage 太高，就业市场
的demand 就变小，引起慢性高失业率综合症。解决方案是要么 deflate
wage, 要么加大 inflation， 要么贬值美元. 无论哪个都意味着美国人
必须降低消费和生活水准。结果美国人不干，那么只好靠借贷过日子了。
2008 之前靠私人借贷，2009 后靠国家借贷， 维持一个基本上属于
Zombie 的经济结构。最终结果就是 -》希腊。 这个过程可能在
1，2年内是很难看出来的，但是如果美国一直靠这样子借钱过日子，
总有一天要变成希腊，西班牙。
有些人说美国有创新啦，有移民啦。这里要指出一点。整个科技创新
工业在美国的经济中的成分并不大。在2000 bubble 破灭后，变的
更小了。而且由于整个IT，biotech 产业的价值都被挖的差不多了。
美国很难在下一个十年重现90年代的辉煌。我看了一下90 年代的美国
科技股。发现现在根本没法和那时候比. 更何况现在还有亚洲国家
在竞争。IT 泡沫破灭以后，基本上美国就是靠房地产， |
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D******e
发帖数: 1085 | 6 We will have deflation like Japan for years to come.
Yes, money has been printed. But the money printed sits at the printer. It
does not make any difference to the world outside the printing factory.
I am saying that because the money is not being put into circulation. The
biggest channels are the mortgage loans, or company loans. Who is borrowing
? Even they do, they borrow less. |
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e*****e
发帖数: 212 | 7 are stock brokerage firms and mutual fund managers. They make money by
trading stocks, which bring virtually no contribution to the wellbeing of
the society. They suck up the wealth of the society by artificially
inflating and deflating the stock prices. They can do this not because they
are smarter, but because they have insider information and a big pile of
money. For those who hates parasites should focus on the banking system
reform, not just the welfare system. |
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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 8 【 以下文字转载自 Japan 讨论区 】
发信人: choi (choi), 信区: Japan
标 题: US Peers into Japan and Sees Itself
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Oct 30 14:32:09 2010, 美东)
peer (vi): " to look searchingly at something difficult to discern"
All English definitions are from www.m-w.com.
Martin Fackler and Steve Lohr, U.S. Hears Echo of Japan’s Woes; Striking
Parrells Seen in Economic Slump. New York Times, Oct. 30, 2010.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/30/world/asia/30japan.html?src=twrhp&scp=1&sq=fackler%20japan&st=cse
Window in t... 阅读全帖 |
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p******o
发帖数: 9007 | 9 Finally, you got it. This is a downward spiral, and is called deflation.
Capitalism itself can not solve this very well. |
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p******o
发帖数: 9007 | 10 Pull out any economics book, it would explain very well to you.
Since you appear always such angry, I would spend a few seconds trying to
make you through.
Business owner would expand his business only when marginal benefit beats
marginal cost. If the consumer base is significantly limited, since the
scale of economics is not there, so not much extra benefit would be brought
in. So owners keep their business tight, or even shrink it further. Then we
would have a vicious "positive" feedback syste... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 11 December 17, 2011
By Matt Palumbo
There are many myths that proponents of socialized medicine commonly use to
advance their cause. One thing that is true, however, is that rising costs
are a major flaw in the current system. In due time, this problem could
well constitute a "crisis."
There are many different ways to combat rising costs: rationing and price
controls, increasing subsidies to health care (and thus further masking
costs), or market competition. Rationing has its obvious consequen... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 12 State and local governments are broke. Pension plans are unfunded.
Unemployment is as high as ever. Sovereign debt is a problem. The total debt
in the world economy is too high. Entire western world has borrowed
excessive amounts in the last few decades. This is not just the money owed
by governments, but it is the money people and companies borrowed from the
banks. Debt has reached an all time high compared to the GDP of the
countries involved. Perfect storm is coming. Austerity and spending cu... 阅读全帖 |
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B******e
发帖数: 16928 | 13 看来像日本那样的10年deflation才是你认为的commen sense economics? 中国的房价
崩溃可不是你想像的所谓跌下来，直接影响一批industry影响unemployment rate影响
大家的income，照你这么说美国现在房价跌也是好事了。 还商品供给越来越充足，真
要是没钱赚没人会去develop这种商品，你让Hermes, Ferrari 让大家都
affordable你看他们还会继续做生意吗？ 你的意思是就不该有luxury good? 没有人
consume你produce越多赔得越多，没有common sense的是你。 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 14
你就好比一个人开咖啡馆，别的店都卖5块一杯，你非要卖20块一杯，以
为这样挣得多，结果没生意。别人要你也降价到5块，你说:"不行！那样
的话我要suffer deflation，影响我的income，影响我的就业，影响国家
的unemployment rate。应该让政府推出刺激计划，以20块钱一杯的价格
到我这里采购，问题就解决了。"LOL，Cart before Horse Economics.
价格要看市场供需关系，如果供大于求就该下降，反之上升。徒劳的和市
场斗，非要在没有需求的市场找就业机会，只能是浪费时间、浪费金钱。
房价跌当然是好事，一个房子如果能够30万拿下为啥要付40万？省下来的
10万块可以去买新车，买家具，买高清电视，外出旅游，给子女存学费...
为啥要全堆到房市才发展经济？你就是没common sense, 还嘴硬。 |
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d*****s
发帖数: 5610 | 15 Taylor是90年代初提出Taylor rule，这个rule的基础就是New Keynesian Macro, New
Keynesian Macro的一个结论就是货币政策短期是有效的。所以Taylor原来自己的理论
是认为货币政策是短期有效的，但是由于dynamic inconsistency的问题，而提出rule-
based policy， taylor rule。
在过去20年内，monetary policy的研究进展了很多，Taylor rule是个good start，是
解决dynamic inconsistency的一个办法，但并不代表monetary policy就应该遵循
Taylor rule。他当然可以批评，但是解决dynamic inconsistency的rule有很多种，哪
种最好还是debatable，何况这次危机是residential investment-deleverage driven
，最大的风险在deflation，所以联储不需要那么担心inflation yet。
如果楼主对最新货币政策感兴趣的话，可以看看michael woodf... 阅读全帖 |
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d*****s
发帖数: 5610 | 16 我都懒的说了，叫inflation的人都是神经病，确实应该出门看医生，看是不是天天做
梦里面有inflation。从2008年开始，无数的人做梦喊inflation，到目前为止，哪有
inflation？ CPI指数每年就2-3%，Fed还在担心deflation。
怎么天下就一帮不懂装懂的人那？都被经济数据打脸4年多了，还不懂装懂。 |
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y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 17 Many on Wall Street are increasingly convinced that Barack Obama will win
the election.
On the eve of the election, many financial professionals on Wall Street
believe that Mitt Romney has lost the election. In phone conversations,
email and instant messaging exchanges, and text messages with over 20 people
in different jobs on Wall Street today the message I picked up was almost
universal: The president will be re-elected tomorrow.
Many of those with whom I spoke—all of whom spoke on the condit... 阅读全帖 |
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F******t
发帖数: 948 | 18 Did Wall Street Just Give Up on Romney?
Published: Tuesday, 6 Nov 2012 | 3:36 AM ET Text Size
By: John Carney
Senior Editor, CNBC.com
Getty Images
Mitt Romney at a campaign rally in Toledo.
Many on Wall Street are increasingly convinced that Barack Obama will win
the election.
On the eve of the election, many financial professionals on Wall Street
believe that Mitt Romney has lost the election. In phone conversations,
email and instant messaging exchanges, and text messages with over 20 people
i... 阅读全帖 |
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F******t
发帖数: 948 | 19 All smart ones think he will lose.
Did Wall Street Just Give Up on Romney?
Published: Tuesday, 6 Nov 2012 | 3:36 AM ET Text Size
By: John Carney
Senior Editor, CNBC.com
Many on Wall Street are increasingly convinced that Barack Obama will win
the election.
On the eve of the election, many financial professionals on Wall Street
believe that Mitt Romney has lost the election. In phone conversations,
email and instant messaging exchanges, and text messages with over 20 people
in different jobs on W... 阅读全帖 |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 20 Japan tried that, increase tax and cut spending in '97, and as a result,
falling into deflation spiral, their debt ballooned, their GDP shrunk, and
they never recovered.
have
I |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 21 其实既使现在就采取 Dr. Paul's 政策， 也已经晚了，
350% credit bubble has to deflate to 120%. When it came down from 370% to
350% in 2008, the whole world went bust. Imaging 350% to 120%.
What should we do? What can we do?
Comparison: 1929 credit bubble was 270%. It led to world war II. |
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c******i
发帖数: 4091 | 22 另，这里其实大家讨论的是和日常生活相关的price inflation，而广义信贷其实是通
缩credit deflation，定义不同。
就好象后清人民纸对外升值对内贬值的道理类似。
一个钢镚儿的两面。 |
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c*****g
发帖数: 21627 | 23 By DAVID A. STOCKMAN
GREENWICH, Conn. -- The Dow Jones and Standard & Poor’s 500 indexes reached
record highs on Thursday, having completely erased the losses since the
stock market’s last peak, in 2007. But instead of cheering, we should be
very afraid.
David Stockman
Over the last 13 years, the stock market has twice crashed and touched off a
recession: American households lost $5 trillion in the 2000 dot-com bust
and more than $7 trillion in the 2007 housing crash. Sooner or later —
within a ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 24 Employers slammed on the brakes in March, adding just 88,000 jobs and
keeping the economic recovery from shifting to a higher gear despite a
mending housing market and steady consumer and business spending.
The grim report, out Friday from the Labor Department, was the first slip
back into five-digit job growth since June 2012 and a stark pullback from
February's upwardly revised 268,000 gain. The unemployment rate, which is
derived from a different survey than the payroll numbers, fell to 7.6%,... 阅读全帖 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 25 好像你不在乎股票市场。美国人的财富一半在股票市场一半在房市上。
美国股票市场强劲上涨，这是在全球是没有的。比如中国的股票市场这有以前的1/3，
从6000-->2000。美国股票市场上涨，创造了几十trillion的财富，
是拯救了多少普通人的pension fund和退休金账户？否者将有几千万人无法退休。
这么大的事，对你来说不重要？
再说房市，也开始复苏，上个月house inventory只有三个月，历史新低，
房价开始强劲上涨，旧金山，凤凰城上涨>20%。
就业率，每个月也是增加>100,000。这还在政府职位减少的情况下。
通货膨胀非常低，低于2%的预期。现在的危险和日本是一样的，怕deflation 而不是
inflation。3%的通货膨胀是最有利经济增长的。
还是搞hedge fund的，经济数据靠自己个人吓琢磨，而不是科学统计结果。
你自己一个能消费那些产品。跟不用说不消费的中国人了。比方我是租DVD看的， 价格
就没有涨，油价也没有涨，事实上所有的 commidity多降价了，包括大豆大米玉米，铝
，铜，媒等等 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 26 好像你不在乎股票市场。美国人的财富一半在股票市场一半在房市上。
美国股票市场强劲上涨，这是在全球是没有的。比如中国的股票市场这有以前的1/3，
从6000-->2000。美国股票市场上涨，创造了几十trillion的财富，
是拯救了多少普通人的pension fund和退休金账户？否者将有几千万人无法退休。
这么大的事，对你来说不重要？
再说房市，也开始复苏，上个月house inventory只有三个月，历史新低，
房价开始强劲上涨，旧金山，凤凰城上涨>20%。
就业率，每个月也是增加>100,000。这还在政府职位减少的情况下。
通货膨胀非常低，低于2%的预期。现在的危险和日本是一样的，怕deflation 而不是
inflation。3%的通货膨胀是最有利经济增长的。
还是搞hedge fund的，经济数据靠自己个人吓琢磨，而不是科学统计结果。
你自己一个能消费那些产品。跟不用说不消费的中国人了。比方我是租DVD看的， 价格
就没有涨，油价也没有涨，事实上所有的 commidity多降价了，包括大豆大米玉米，铝
，铜，媒等等 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 27 我也是觉得没有太大的意识。
觉得这儿大多数人无知幼稚，缺乏常识。
别人说什么就是什么，
对一些表面上有些道理，实际上无法用事实验证的东西甚至相反的东西深信不宜。
喜欢用个人生活经验，不喜欢科学和统计。不喜欢model和simulation。
拍脑袋判断事情的对错。
比方QE--->inflation
这就是无稽之谈，日本QE了33年，还是deflation。 |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 28 there is no use.
It is designed that way. As credit bubble inflates, all resources get sucked
into the game. there will be no productive capital investment, therefore
there will be no job growth.
China has the largest credit bubble in human history, by far.
When it deflates, it will be as ugly as hell. |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 29 Because when bubble burst, they did not have someone like Bernanke/Paulson
who knew how to deal with the aftermath. Tax hike at the peak of Asia
financial crisis shot itself at the foot. Instead of increasing tax revenue,
the economy plummet, tax revenue down sharply. And they are in a deflation
environment ever since. |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 30 They are in a two decades long deflation, certainly they should change
course. But I am not as optimistic as in earlier this year. They raised
consumer tax, and BOJ governer said they did everything they can, which is 1
) not the right thing to say and 2) of course they can do more. |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 31 UAW Faces Another Southern Setback
By
Damian Paletta
March 14, 2014 5:21 p.m. ET
CANTON, Miss.—The United Auto Workers union headquarters here—tucked
beside a cow pasture down the road from a sprawling Nissan Motor Co. 7201.
TO -0.35% plant—was supposed to be a springboard for a new wave of
labor activism across the South.
It has become instead a center of discouragement and uncertainty in a state
where many want the union to pack up and leave.
Labor organizers at Nissan were shocked when ... 阅读全帖 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 32 这个联储不是说的明明白白，还要你自作聪明胡想？
QE是买长期债卷，控制长期利率尽可能的低。
同时，是为了有2-3%的通货膨胀。
没有QE，现在美国已经是日本了，就是可拍的物价下跌deflation了 |
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u***n
发帖数: 10554 | 33 I want deflation badly. |
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f***e
发帖数: 5443 | 34 裏根經濟學亂彈 - 兼紀念裏根夫人
本來是寫給芹泥《政治幽默-裏根》一文的留言，結果越寫越長，隻好貼在自己園子了。
芹泥和牧人對裏根的理解是一致的：裏根最大的政績是“以星球大戰摧毀蘇俄 和 拯救
美國經濟”，這兩大政績讓戰後所有總統望塵莫及。取得這樣的政績需要的是判斷力和
決心兩大要素，裏根在這兩項素質上可以說無可挑剔，唯一能和他媲美的大概就是林肯
了（對了，林肯是什麼黨來著？不會是巧合吧？）。
摧毀共產主義這個邪惡的製度就不多說了（這個功績其實比另一個偉大的多），牧人就
說說拯救美國經濟。
了解宏觀經濟學的都知道，宏觀經濟調控就是兩個手段：貨幣政策和財務政策。貨幣政
策就是以利率和貨幣投放量來保證經濟在正軌上，實施貨幣政策的是美聯儲或中央銀行
；財務政策則是通過稅收和投資來拉動經濟，實施財物政策的則是財政部。譬如2008金
融危機時就是靠美聯儲的低利率和貨幣寬鬆、以及美國政府的bailout和加大基建（譬
如bridge to nowhere什麼的）來迅速度過這場戰後最大的財政難關的。
一個國家的經濟最棘手的不是衰退recession、不是通脹inflation、甚至不是通縮
def... 阅读全帖 |
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f**********n
发帖数: 29853 | 35 肯定比一开始的那个设备高级。这一持枪抢匪，其实直接火箭弹搞定，我一点意见没有。
Troopers pursued the vehicle and repeatedly saw the driver display a handgun
, the release states. Troopers used tire-deflating devices in an attempt to
stop the vehicle, but the driver avoided them. In an effort to end the
pursuit, troopers used a precision immobilization technique to stop the
vehicle, which was successful.
http://www.mlive.com/news/saginaw/index.ssf/2016/03/2-county_po |
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发帖数: 1 | 36 what for deflation then? decrease min wage?
That is not going to work. |
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V**3
发帖数: 12756 | 37 如果全面大萧条deflation，为啥不能减低？
理论上公司都可以降薪的 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 38 The Obama administration starts work to save Clinton
In ways subtle and in some ways not so subtle, the Obama administration is
beginning to matter-of-factly do what it can to help Hillary Clinton be
elected president. Its members are beginning to circle the wagons around
Clinton. Beyond their partisan bias, perhaps many in the administration are
motivated by a desire to stay in government or even get promoted if Clinton
is elected. Bureaucrats and political appointees alike may be looking for
w... 阅读全帖 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 39 http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2011/08/obama_the_affirmative_action_president.html
Years from now, historians may regard the 2008 election of Barack Obama as
an inscrutable and disturbing phenomenon, a baffling breed of mass hysteria
akin perhaps to the witch craze of the Middle Ages. How, they will wonder,
did a man so devoid of professional accomplishment beguile so many into
thinking he could manage the world's largest economy, direct the world's
most powerful military, execute the ... 阅读全帖 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 40 Liberals routinely admit minorities to schools for which they are not
qualified, yet take no responsibility for the inevitable poor performance
and high drop-out rates which follow. Liberals don't care if these minority
students fail; liberals aren't around to witness the emotional devastation
and deflated self-esteem resulting from the racist policy that is
affirmative action. Yes, racist. Holding someone to a separate standard
merely because of the color of his skin - that's affirmative action... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 41 Trump cracks the Electoral College lock
A new round of state polls shows Donald Trump suddenly has a path to 270
electoral votes.
By Steven Shepard
09/15/16 07:53 PM EDT
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-electoral-college-polls-228249#ixzz4KNYBBYMW
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
Just six weeks ago, Hillary Clinton's advantage in the Electoral College
looked insurmountable. Now, based on the latest round of public polls, it's
a different story.
... 阅读全帖 |
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i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 43 TheHill.com 描述得更完整 ‘The FBI and the DOJ declined to comment to the
Times.’
FBI Director James Comey reportedly asked the Justice Department this
weekend to publicly reject President Trump's claims that former President
Barack Obama wiretapped Trump Tower before the election.
Senior American officials told The New York Times on Sunday that Comey has
said the president's wiretapping allegations are not true and asked the
Justice Department on Saturday to publicly correct the record.
The report com... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 44 Comey的反应很不正常
：TheHill.com 描述得更完整
：FBI Director James Comey reportedly asked the Justice Department this
：weekend to publicly reject President Trump's claims that former
President
：Barack Obama wiretapped Trump Tower before the election.
：Senior American officials told The New York Times on Sunday that Comey has
：said the president's wiretapping allegations are not true and asked
the
：Justice Department on Saturday to publicly correct the record.
：The report comes after President Trump, in a ser... 阅读全帖 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 45 Let's print shall we? Hyperinflation at any cost until bust baby. There's no
choice left for the warmongers because the country is falling into third
world status with its' rotting infrastructure system. Washington politicians
jail more people than Russia and China combined in order for Judges and
Cops to put the dividends in their pension plans. They trade and get rich
while in Office. There's not enough tax money coming in any more because of
deflation and demographics. The baby-boomer generat... 阅读全帖 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 46 受迫害实在太久了
That’s when Robby, drained and deflated, watching the results with his team
in a room down the hall from Hillary’s suite, labored into the hallway of
the Peninsula to break the news. Hillary didn’t seem all that surprised. ‘
I knew it. I knew this would happen to me….’ Hillary said, now within a
couple of inches of his face. ‘They were never going to let me be president.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/hillary-clinton-they-were-never-going-to-let-
me-be-president |
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b******a
发帖数: 30 | 47 You mean pumping a bubble?
Deflating the housing bubble should be the highest priority. Then people
will have actual money left to spend after they bought an overpriced house.
then
exactly
in
economy |
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I***i
发帖数: 14557 | 48 Also, did you deflate the tires to 30psi IMMEDIATELY AFTER YOU DROVE IT FOR
SEVERAL MILES? The recommended tire pressure for your car should be measured
when the car is cold. |
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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 49 James May, Cracking the Problem of Hydrogen-Fuel Future; Right then. A few
of you, over on the internet forum, have requested it, so here it is: James
’s Ladybird Book of How It Works - the hydrogen fuel-cell motor
carTelegraph, Feb 24, 2011.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/columnists
/jamesmay/8338090/Cracking-the-problem-of-hydrogen-fuel-future.html
Note:
(a) smashing (adj): "extraordinarily impressive or effective
performance>"
All definitions are from www.m-w.com, except othe... 阅读全帖 |
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d***a
发帖数: 13752 | 50
没有反，这是常识啊。:-) 其实和沙地上越野是一个道理。
http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Car-Talk-What-s-the-prope
"Here's the story. On a slippery surface, like ice, compacted snow or sand,
the larger the contact patch on the ground, the more traction you'll get.
And "flattening" the tire does give you a larger contact patch."
"In fact, if you've been someplace where park rangers allow driving on the
beach, they'll often require that drivers deflate their tires. Those tires
may be set as low as 10 psi, to expand th... 阅读全帖 |
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