l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 By STEPHANIE BANCHERO, JACK NICAS and CAROLINE PORTER
CHICAGO—The teacher strike that has shut 350,000 students out of classes
will continue for at least another day, as a judge declined Monday to
immediately rule on a city lawsuit seeking to force teachers back into the
classroom.
The Chicago school district, under the control of Mayor Rahm Emanuel, had
asked a Cook County Circuit Court judge to prohibit the Chicago Teachers
Union from striking on grounds that it is illegal. The board argued in... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 2 October 3, 2012 Posted by DJ Drummond
Imagine I took a poll of delegates at the 2012 GOP National Convention. Let
’s say I made sure the gender, race, age, education, and other demographics
apart from party affiliation were carefully matched to voter norms. Would
you be happy with such a poll?
If you are a Republican, maybe, but obviously not if you are a Democrat. A
lot of folks would be quick to point out that Mitt Romney would pretty much
crush Barack Obama in such a poll. The flip side ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 3 by Jammie
The best and brightest, or so they think. What a bunch of dolts.
With the climate talks in Doha, Qatar limping along, and support for a
new treaty waning among nations in attendance, one might expect spirits to
be down among the global warming faithful. But this is not the case.
Yes, nations like Canada, New Zealand, and Japan seem eager to withdraw
from the process. And yes, nature has not been exactly cooperative, with 16
years of no statistically significant warming. However... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 4 About Us
Subscribe
Contact Us
Donate
RSS
Illinois GOP: 'No Amount of Presidential Pivots and Speechmaking' Can Help
Our State's Unemployed
July 24, 2013 - 3:49 PM
By Craig Bannister
Subscribe to Craig Bannister RSS
Follow Craig Bannister on Twitter
"[N]o amount of presidential pivots and speechmaking will change the fact
that too many Illinoisans are out of work, Illinois' House Republicans
declared after President Obama spoke for more than an hour today in their
home state.
The ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 5 Virginia Delegate Joseph D. Morrissey / AP
BY: Brent Scher
January 14, 2015 8:59 am
Morrissey resigned from the seat last December after he was convicted for
having a sexual relationship with a 17-year-old employee at his law office.
Morrissey, a Democrat who ran as an Independent, received more than 42
percent of the vote in a district that has long been safe for Democratic
candidates.
The Henrico County Sheriff’s Office gave him permission under its work
release program to leave the jail an... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 6 Why I'm Never Going to "Two-Bit" China
I would never go to China, even if someone paid for the trip and all
expenses.
My reason can be explained in one headline: China Arrests US Citizen for '
Endangering National Security'.
An American businesswoman has been formally arrested in China on
suspicion of “endangering national security” just days before Chinese
President Xi Jinping arrives in the US for his first official state visit.
Phan Phan-Gillis, 55, who also uses the name Sandy, disap... 阅读全帖 |
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s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 7 床铺会在iowa小胜（9~10 delegates)；科鲁兹和如表平分秋色（6~8 delegates)。
这个结果，科鲁兹基本算输。床铺老头接下来还得镇压Rubio，够辛苦的。 |
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a**t
发帖数: 3833 | 8 昨天的Iowa 民主党初选，在很多选区都出现了史无前例的选票平手情况。根据细则，
在选票相平的时候，选区会用抛硬币的方式来选出胜利者。但是有意思的是，在至少六
个不同的选区出现这种抛硬币的情况，都是判Sanders胜利，而Hillary阵营只有
胜过一次。
Who won these coin flips?
Of the seven coin flips/games of chance that were held in precincts using
the Microsoft app, six of those were flips to determine whether a county
delegate slot went to Clinton or Sanders. Of those six Clinton-vs.-Sanders
coin flips, Sanders won five and Clinton one. The seventh coin flip was used
to determine whether a county delegate slot we... 阅读全帖 |
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k**f
发帖数: 301 | 9 After Crushing Defeat, DNC Quirk Still Gives Hillary More New Hampshire
Delegates Than Sanders
...New Hampshire has 8 superdelegates, 6 of which are committed to Hillary
Clinton, giving her a total of 15 delegates from New Hampshire as of
Wednesday at 9 a.m...
http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/10/hillary-earns-more-new-hampsh |
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c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 10 这个Sanders事先怎么会不知道，他是个老党棍了。
问题是，superdelegates/delegates pledge的投票到convention的时候也是有可能有
变动的。当然一般情况下是不会变的。
那么，怎么会变？这就要看民意了。如果Sanders在全国范围小胜Clinton，而因为
superdelegates一边倒向Clinton的而最后没拿到nomination的话。那么在这一个情况
下，superdelegates/delegates可能因为当时很强的民意而反水支持Sanders - 事实就
是，如果他们一意孤行强推Clinton的话，基层选民这次肯定在大选中选择放弃投票，
甚至投共和党的票。 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 11 Only two states voted and clinton lost them both:
Results:
clinton 394 delegates
sanders 42 delegates |
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c*******e
发帖数: 5818 | 12 我理解是：没有super delegate，但如果拿了某个选取的winner，第二的也可以拿到
delegate，但第一基本可以拿2/3 ＋ |
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s*******w
发帖数: 2257 | 13 川普再能上天 也逃不出美国选举制度的五指山(组图)
文章来源: 观察者 于 2016-03-15 09:49:01
【这是继超级星期二之后，美国总统大选初选的又一次大集会：3月15日，将有6个州决
出胜负。民主党方面，希拉里依旧遥遥领先，桑德斯则显得有些疲态；共和党方面，虽
然特朗普的劲头一直很足，甚至不断引发暴力冲突。眼下美国大选的焦点也都聚焦在这
两个人身上。
“哥有87亿，哥要选美国总统”，这是特朗普在竞选初期放出的狠话，半年多过去了，
特朗普确实实现了完美逆转，以至于共和党内不少人倒戈，纽约市前市长布隆伯格也宣
布放弃总统参选，以遏制特朗普一飞冲天的势头。特朗普真的能上天？当然不是，美国
选举制度运行百年，早已形成一套完备的、甚至有些僵化的规则，这不是特朗普一个人
能够挑战的。】
年初刚看完了只有民主没有发展的台湾“选举”，世界的目光又聚集到了闪亮登场的美
国大选。
和关注谁能赢得大选以及未来政策如何变化不同，我更感兴趣的是美国的制度特色。毕
竟全世界号称民主选举的国家不在少数，其差异才是重点。
三权分立，却经常导致政府关门
和大多数欧洲国家不同，美国是总统制，是极少实行三权分... 阅读全帖 |
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s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 14 Just a pure mathematical game:
GOP's magic number is 1237 out of 2340. After SEC, about 700 delegates would
have been allocated. To be mathematically comfortable, Trump should have
370 in hand. Current delegate count is 221. If Rubio falls below 20% in TX,
Trump might get ~300.
Long hard battle ahead... |
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s**p
发帖数: 518 | 15 CNN刚刚报了delegates，trump怎么才148？
[在 smartagent (美国已死，有事烧纸) 的大作中提到：]
：早些时候估计500 delegates的老兄显然过于乐观了。现在连俺的估计，~360，都够
呛。
：
：........... |
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s*********e
发帖数: 1814 | 16 Trump目前总delegates 268
还有近200 的 delegates 还没开出来
这部分估计拿1/3，那么最后有330+ |
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K********y
发帖数: 5068 | 17 三月一日初选结果总结，祝贺Trump，再接再励，我们和你一起!!
Trump现在共拿２８５票,看来Trump还有很长的路要走，没关系，我们坚定的和你一起!!
Trump 2016!!
God Bless America~~
Total delegates 1,237 to win, 595 in play in these contests
Trump: 285 (+203)
Cruz: 161 (+144)
Rubio: 87 (+71)
Kasich: 25 (+19)
Carson: 8 (+3)
RACE WINNING 2ND RP DEL*
Alaska Cruz 36% Trump 33% 100% 28
Ala. Trump 43% Cruz 21% 100% 50
Ark. Trump 33% Cruz 30% 96% 40
Ga. Trump 39% Rubio 24% ... 阅读全帖 |
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b******i
发帖数: 1183 | 18 得了99个DELEGATES，相比老头子的33个。便宜占大了。
其他阿拉斯加差别只有一个DELEGATE
克拉后妈也只差一个 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 19 But after a disappointing Super Tuesday that saw Rubio fall further behind
Donald Trump and Ted Cruz in the delegate count, the Florida senator is
sticking to the script and batting away questions about whether he’s in
denial.
Ignoring Cruz’s call for him to leave the race and the increasingly
difficult delegate math, Rubio is focusing only on the contests ahead and
continuing to prosecute his case against the clear GOP frontrunner.
The only change Wednesday from Rubio was a slightly tempered to... 阅读全帖 |
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p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | 20 Cruz 本来就领先。
是按比例分配，最低比例是 10%. 一共 40 delegates. 按这个比例最后也就是差10个
delegate 以内。 |
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w********0
发帖数: 1211 | 21 见这个链接
http://www.bustle.com/articles/145907-is-the-louisiana-primary-
简而言之，就是at-large的那25张票，按比例分配的threshold是20%。对于没到
threshold的人，别的州一般就是把他们去掉，上threshold的人按相对比例分配，也就
是说分母得rescale到100%。可是这个LA州很奇葩，按原来实际拿到的比例分，这样没
到20%的人的票暂时不分给任何人，而是变成unbounded,delegate想投谁就投谁。
比如按目前的比例，trump 47.7%, cruz 23.5%, rubio 19.3%, kasich 3.1%
rubio,kasich都不到20%，按正常的rescale，trump和cruz应该2：1分配那25张，
trumpg该拿17张，cruz8张。但按这个奇葩规则，trump只有12张，cruz6张，剩下7张届
时 delegate可以想投谁就投谁,就好比民主党的super delgatel了。太无耻了！ |
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s*********e
发帖数: 1814 | 22 IL虽然是 winner takes all 的，但是只有十几个delegates是州winner take all
绝大多数是每个选区3个delegates，选区第一takes all |
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m********g
发帖数: 10469 | 23 DOUBLE-VOTING BY CRUZ SUPPORTERS?
by Sharon Rondeau
(Mar. 6, 2016) — On Sunday evening, former Trump adviser Roger Stone
tweeted that he would be appearing on the Alex Jones Show at 6:00 p.m. ET/5:
00 p.m. CT “to spill the latest on the GOP Rumble,” referencing Mitt
Romney, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio as well as voter fraud in his tweet.
During the segment on Jones’s show, Stone revealed that he has received
more than 200 reports of voter fraud having occurred during the Kansas
Republican prima... 阅读全帖 |
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b*******m
发帖数: 5492 | 24 (CNN)Ted Cruz emerged from "Super Tuesday 2" with one more victory and a
slew of new delegates, cementing his hold on second place in the delegate
race for the Republican presidential nomination.
Now, all he has to do is convince the rest of his party that he's the only
person who can actually stop real estate mogul Donald Trump. |
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i**t
发帖数: 3556 | 25 Marco Rubio’s campaign says supporters of the Florida senator should back
John Kasich in Ohio on Tuesday if they want to stop Donald Trump.
“If you are a Republican primary voter in Ohio and you want to defeat
Donald Trump, your best chance in Ohio is John Kasich,” Alex Conant, Rubio
’s communications director, told CNN.
“The same is true here in Florida,” Conant said, emphasizing that Rubio is
the candidate best positioned to beat the real-estate mogul in the state’s
primary Tuesday for its 99 ... 阅读全帖 |
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T***u
发帖数: 1468 | 26 Wyoming60万人怎么会有那么多delegates?
Florida2000万人才99个
每个州不是只有三个Unpledged delegates? |
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 28 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/15/donal
hit-a-critical-threshold-for-the-gop-nomination-one-that-his-opponents-might
-not/
In doing so, the Northern Marianas became the eighth state or territory in
which Trump won a majority of the delegates. (The others: South Carolina,
Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Hawaii and Mississippi.) And
according to the rules of the Republican convention, a candidate must "
demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 29 应该能拿近五十张票吧。 这个州不是按票数而是按赢得选区来分票：
if none of the four contenders have a clear majority, it will turn into a
winner-take-most situation, with 12 delegates being awarded to the
Republican with the most votes in the state, and the remaining 40 split up
by congressional district (the winner of each district receiving five
delegates).
trump赢了大部分county! |
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h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 30 winner takes all和介于winner takes all和proportional 这种的州都是对床铺有利
的 他不需要赢绝对多数 比如IL 床铺才赢39%的选票 但是拿了大概70%的delegates 床
铺选票分散能赢大多数选区是绝对的优势 很多州不管选区有多少投票选民 delegates
都是一样的 接下来的州都是有利于front runner的 床铺如果能保持目前的状态赢1273
票一点问题没有 |
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m****s
发帖数: 494 | 31 以前的delegate和现在的delegate完全不一样 没法比较 那个时代选民选代表 代表选
提名人
现在是选民直接投提名人 不可同日而语 |
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c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 32 in first ballot, 95% of the delegates are bounded.
No one says Trump is definitely going to get 1237 delegates. But, everyone
says if he gets 1237, he will be the nominee, I mean everyone says so
including the GOP establishment. |
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i**y
发帖数: 1170 | 33 先看看他能不能在Utah把Cruz搞到50%以下吧，如果他不在，Utah 40个delegates估计
Cruz全拿了。他在，Trump没准能混到10个delegates呢 |
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g****e
发帖数: 1829 | 34 建制派是为了确保trump拿不到多数。最后brokered convention合并cruz和kasich让他
们做running mate，这样他们两人不需要其他人帮助，总delegate就可以超过trump。
这比把退出的人的delegate拿出来给cruz强行压下trump冲击要小很多。不出意外的话
，cruz和kasich后面不会互相攻击的。 |
|
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 36 If Trump wins 1150 plus delegates, I believe that these delegates will go to
Trump. |
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b*********h
发帖数: 1001 | 37 http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and
But should Trump fail to accrue the necessary 1,237 delegates, 54 percent of
those polled said the party should back Trump for the nomination anyway.
More than a third said the delegates should nominate another person, and 7
percent were unsure.
Of those who said someone else should prevail at a contested convention, 33
percent favored Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, and 23 percent said they would like
to see Ohio Gov. John Kasich win the n... 阅读全帖 |
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w******8
发帖数: 977 | 38 共和党大会推举候选人有个规定，就是候选人必须至少在一定数额的州赢得超过50%的
delegate(注意不是vote)才有资格参与推举。2012年以前这个数额是5，但是2012年Ron
Paul在6个州得到多数票，为了避免意外，RNC在最后时刻把rule40从5个州改为8个州
，这样就有绝对控制把Paul搞掉，当时引起很大争议，但是Paul本身票数就远远少于
Romney，所以此事影响并不大。而今年的形势已经很清楚了，Trump已经有10个州达到
半数以上，Cruz只有5个，而Cruz很难再拿三个州的50%＋，这样如果不改Rule40的话，
将只有Trump符合规定，那就太搞笑了。Rule40是RNC搞出来控制草根候选人的，这次SB
了。不过Rule40可以随便改，所以有一点可以肯定，就是Cruz一定会达标，如果他最后
只有5个州达到50%＋，这个Rule一定会改回5个州去。
政治真是TMD太无耻了，任何Rule就跟放屁一样，其实跟民主党的Super Delegate一样
无耻。不过跟2012年不同的是，今年大家都坐等RNC无耻改Rule，到时候就看RNC怎么
Spin。 |
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p*******s
发帖数: 157 | 39 Bad news for those few who imagined Donald Trump would quietly accept the
GOP handing the party's nomination to someone else and support a non-Trump
candidate.
The Republican front-runner told CNN's Anderson Cooper he no longer promises
to support whoever ends up being the Republican nominee during a town hall
in Milwaukee Tuesday.
"Do you continue to pledge to support whoever the Republican nominee is?"
Cooper asked.
"No, I don't anymore," Trump replied.
Back in September the mercurial mogul si... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 40 Wisconsin Primary (42) — Winner take all statewide and by congressional
district
所以trump很有可能拿到delegates.他现在最重要的是拿delegates. |
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l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 41 尼玛，这种破学校的POLL居然有人相信，除非初选那天在电脑系统上直接动手脚。
A new Marquette Law School poll shows Texas Sen. Ted Cruz with a 10-point
lead over Donald Trump among likely voters in Wisconsin's upcoming open
primary election.
In the latest poll:
Cruz, 40 percent;
Trump, 30 percent;
Ohio Gov. John Kasich, 21 percent;
Undecided, 8 percent.
According to Politico, if Cruz can hold onto a double-digit win, Wisconsin
would award 15 delegates to his slate, and he could sweep the state's eight
congressional districts, with ea... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 42 according to former or not-former-yet presidential candidate: 如婊
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/274653-rubio-m
“The decision to suspend my campaign for president of the Untied States [
sic] is not intended to release any national convention delegates bound to
me as a result of the 2016 delegate selection process that took place in
your state,” he wrote.
穷的连个秘书都没了？ |
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s*********e
发帖数: 1814 | 43 12年的时候，新制定的条款要求共和党候选人至少要在八个州赢得一半以上delegates
才有资格成为共和党候选人。大家都知道这个规则是为Romney定制的，帮助他除掉潜在
的竞争对手
作为谎不离口的lying大师，Ted对这些把戏当然也很清楚。他也知道establishment和
他是互相利用关系。establishment也不想要他，于是想施压把这变成 two men race
That’s the argument of Sen. Ted Cruz, who says the party’s own convention
protocols essentially mean that only he and Republican front-runner Donald
Trump can even be considered for the nomination, with third-place candidate
John Kasich and dark horse choices like House Speaker Paul D. Ryan already
disquali... 阅读全帖 |
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s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 44 I think he's targeting the CD delegates. The 18 state-wide delegates will
all go to the state-wide winner. |
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M**********n
发帖数: 4964 | 45 现在对trump来讲，毕竟还是有希望获得共和党提名，即使有open convention,也只能
死磕了。也因为现在还有希望获得提名，所以最佳策略是集中精力竞选拿delegate。时
间上完全来不及准备third party了，需要收集大量签名。如果在open convention（
Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio, July 18-21）拿不到
nomination的话，已经来不及了，自己看看这个deadline链接，那时已经错过了好几个
州的third party deadline了，况且收集签名也不是随便谁的签名都可以，条件多多，
收集签名本身也是挺耗时的。所以即使以third party竞选，最后在很多州连名字都没
法挂上去。
本来以third party竞选胜出几率就非常非常低，如果很多州连名字都没法在deadline
前挂上去，胜选的几率为零。
所以GOP establishment也不会推出自己的人以third party竞选，trump也不会以third
party竞选，到时候不管谁，时间上来不及准备t... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******e
发帖数: 5818 | 46 WI loss is totally expected, also holding down Ted below 50%
I feel like one thing he can improve is to add more professional "politician"
to his team,and from the press he seems doing it.
Whether like it or not, he is politician now, he should know the rules and
also need to play certain game. Last time, when he met with RNC, he was
apparently lacks of knowledge of delegate rules, because of this, he made no
efforts to gain the rest delegates of LA.
Except immigration and trade topic, which he ... 阅读全帖 |
|
M**********n
发帖数: 4964 | 47 trump也complain说kasich should not be allowed to run, because he is taking
my vote 之类的话，这样的话听起来很幼稚，人家退出不退出，完全不犯法，凭什么要
求人家退出然后确保自己容易胜利。没啥为什么，还有其他类似不相关的逻辑：“朋友
帮你是善事，是道义；朋友不帮你也无可厚非”
你为什么要求人家退出？不就怕拿不够足够票吗？trump要是现在已经有九百一千
delegate的话，剩下的delegate会很容易凑够不需要brokered convention，我保证
trump就不会说这么说话，就会大度点任凭别人怎样不退出。
简单点，很多人就是冲着在convention上把trump选下去，现在convention的概率已经
很高了，人家当然不会轻易退出给你free pass。
今年的共和党注定不会那么团结，首先相当一部分不认同trump，不认同他是真正的共
和党，其次trump当初各种insult别的候选人，Jeb退出后连电话都不接，说明裂痕很深
，很多人对着和trump干，事实就是这样，nevertrump mo... 阅读全帖 |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 48 sweep NY , and then wins PA, Trump will win nomination.
PA's 54 unbound delegates actually very likely to be bound to primary
results, because it is also elected on the primary. With that 54 delegates,
and a sweep in NY, Trump crosses 1237.
|
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c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 49 Trump在NY应该可以赢到90票左右，在PA应该可以赢到50票左右，加起来就+140票的
delegates了。
delegates, |
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m********g
发帖数: 10469 | 50 关键是PA delegates得是床粉，否则第1轮投票就垮了。Cruz把床铺的DELEGATES安插了不
少他的支持者, |
|
