c********n
发帖数: 17 | 1 D is more likely 4432 than 5431 so play D is safe enough even if T in West.
However, if West wins D then switches to C, declarer has to make a decision on
how to finesse C anyway. CT would be the choice here.
If West holds D AT and East has D KQxx and C KJx, either play would fail base
don a good defense.
However, i would still play D from dummy at 2nd trick. Even if West wins with
T, as long as West does not switchs to C after 3 rounds of D, South is more
likely to have a D winner, or 4th D thr |
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f*****x
发帖数: 545 | 2 perhaps u should take a deep finesse of hj, playing 4-0 break.
If opps are weak, i will simply play h from dummy twice via dk and ck.【 在
xlxie (《※★★★※§三少爷§※★★★※》) 的大作中提到: 】 |
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w****b
发帖数: 623 | 3 Finessing the 1st HJ is too deep a position. RHO doubled on S strength,
probably. |
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f*****x
发帖数: 545 | 4 easy, h5, they dont know u have a trump trick, so they wont finesse hk【 在
xlxie (《※★★★※§三少爷§※★★★※》) 的大作中提到: 】 |
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w****b
发帖数: 623 | 5 I won't. But I will not finesse HJ, especially when SJ is pitched. I will test
H and when it doesn't work, get back to S.
play, |
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f*****x
发帖数: 545 | 6 You must assume at least one minor suit King is on side to make 6H. If DK is o
ff then CK will almost certainly be off as RHO opened. So we have to assume DK
is on.
If DK is on, then we should finesse CQ first to see if we can afford to play s
afely in trump suit.
So the correct play is Dx back to DQ, then Cx to CQ, if it wins, then Hx from
dummy, cover any card played by RHO. If CQ loses to CK, then play H2-2. |
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b***n
发帖数: 13455 | 7 2nd round: dummy ruffed with S2
3rd: dummy SJ finess Q
4th: dummy S3, taken by K at hand
5th: C7 from hand, taken by A of dummy
6th: dummy CK
7th: dummy small C, trumped with S7 at hand
8th: SA, SQ fell
9th: small D to A of dummy to finish |
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c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 8 you want to return S9, although normally you can return 2 from 3 cards,
here you have to return S9 in case your partner holds SQT87x, if you return
low, declarer can play low so that your partner can't attack the suit
from his side. If you play 9, declarer has no solution, if he plays
K, you can finesse his SJ when you take you CA. If he plays low, your
partner can also plays low. if he plays J, your partner can continue
spade and then develop a trick in another suit if he has no
fast entry. |
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a****s
发帖数: 524 | 9 I don't think your argument is convincing either.
first, line 1, because east discard a spade, he's likely to have 5+ spades,
the chance of west has 4 diamonds is likely 50-50.
second, I can't see line 2 is better, because after you lost club to Q,
east won't return a spade if the finesse is on. if he has the last diamond,
you going down for sure, or he could just return a
club. Now the best you could do is ruffing a diamond in hand and hope for
miracle.
东4 |
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c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 10 perhaps play DA, then H4 to H J, if it loses, I have to play SQJ or SQJx on
side combining with some squeeze possibilities if they
play H back or D 3-3 H3-3 if they don't play H back,
and it's just tough cause we never know whether
our opps can always find the killing defence, so
even without H return, S finesse can still
be right cause D can be 4-2 and S still can be
a good position. If it wins, now it becomes
interesting, I probably play C to CQ, diamond ruff, if everybody follows,
then CAK, p |
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w****b
发帖数: 623 | 11 Very tough. Too many possibilities, and this is a hand that you need to 比拼
内力 with oppo very early on. At the end of day, for a given layout, there
is probably a winning line, but in reality, chances are, I didn't choose
that line.
I think the best chance (not necessarily the best chance on paper) is
probably duck two rounds of H, win the 3rd, play a C to A, and play the DJ.
If RHO covers the Q, duck it. If he did not, assume he does not have it. So
win the A, finesse the C, cash a 4th. Now you |
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w****b
发帖数: 623 | 12 Yep,only a ruffing finesse against the HQ would work.
so |
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w****b
发帖数: 623 | 13 Your LHO wins CQ, and returns D. Then when neith C3-2, nor S3-3, you will go
down. Even though your RHO holds both black suits, you don't have 11th
trick so no squeeze for 12th either.
Even if you miraculously guessed to finesse the C to get 11th, your entry is
screwed up so no squeeze and no 12th trick either. |
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b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 14 Win SA and finesse CJ. The line of play depends on whether CJ wins. |
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c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 15 DA, draw trumps, SA, HJ to HK, S ruff, if HQ and SK didn't fall,
you can draw a lot of trumps and watch how they discard.
The end game is like:
SQ HKT
Hx DQ CT
when you play CT, if west huddles and pitches a D, you can pitch SQ,
east may be under pressure and give up his D guard as well,
then you may make it when
west holds SK, or when east holds SK, CK and DQ.
If west discards a lot of spades without problems, you may have to relie
on the H finesse later. Or if you find east has some problems, |
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b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 16 Yes. But against expert defenders who foresee the problem earlier, you may
not able to read the cards with 100% certainty. Still, playing for the
combined chance of squeeze and either defender having SKxx, that is a much
better line than simple H finesse.
7C. |
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b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 17 S8-SA-S4-S9
...
S9-S2-S5-SQ
Two S9's in the same deck?
Anyway, it looks like declarer has 5 tricks in the majors. If declarer has
DK also, the contract is unbeatable unless I smoothly duck CQ and find
declarer with 3442 shape (and that he tries to finesse club again). On the
other hand, if the declarer knows we are good defenders, then he may suspect
that I have CQ, because it would be technically wrong for partner to not
cover CJ if he had that card. So, in an expert field, I'd rather take CQ
i |
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j*******e
发帖数: 2168 | 18 SK, CA, HK and ruff a club.
If HQ drops under HK, then we have plenty of entries to establish club,
provided it's not 5-1;
If not, we clear trumps and use SA to ruff another club to see if CK drops.
In case it does not, we will probably need to finesse D. |
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v*******e
发帖数: 3714 | 19 It makes no sense for LHO to attack with HK if he had only two hearts headed
by K. Therefore it makes sense to play CA and finesse CJ if LHO turned out
with 4 spades (without knowing exactly how many diamonds he has), for
percentage play. |
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p*********6
发帖数: 679 | 20 It seems not too difficult if just to play for make.
- 3 rounds of S;
- play C (unblocking J from hand) to endplay E;
- dummy has 2 entries, hA and cT, to finess dA and later to cash 1d;
so you will get 6s,2h,1d and 3c for 12 tricks |
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b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 21 If you go with this line, one thing I want to add: if on SK you find trumps
are 3-1, you should ruff-finesse DK immediately. If you play back to SQ
instead, and find LHO with CK (not likely, but possibly, if RHO rigidly
follows rule of 20 to open with a 10-count), you may find yourself short of
an entry to dummy.
In any case, making 6S should earn a good score, so definitely safety should
come first. |
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a****s
发帖数: 524 | 22 story or not, depends on how you develop the play :-)
Ok, let's regroup a little bit,
with both following the 1st round of trump, the contract
is not in danger by any account, since we can always
draw trumps and set up clubs, RHO has to provide us an
entry for ruffing finesse in diamond.
So how do we play to improve the odds of an over-trick? |
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p*********6
发帖数: 679 | 23 OK. I assume the 2nd spade to K in dummy. How about simply play D small? E
is likely to put up A if he does not have J (E 12hcp ok). Then
- draw the 3rd trump;
- play h K, then A. If Q droping, discard 2c on D KQ, ruff finess CK, hJ as
entry later to make 7; if Q not droping, discard 2h on D KQ, force out cK to
make 6. |
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v*******e
发帖数: 3714 | 24 摊牌不好吧。。。希望西家持3-4-3-3 with SK还是有点希望的。
出牌顺序是：
after HK, trump DK
finesse SQ, trump DQ
SA, then trump a spade
play clubs
最后留牌：
x
9x
-
-
-
Ax
-
J
打出草花J，西家现在还有QJx的将牌，如果大将的话明手就垫牌。西家小将的话明手9
吃到。
为了这个end play，必须用黑心进手两次，所以必须飞SK |
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p*********6
发帖数: 679 | 25 To me (if North), 3D is a game try. S likely has d A and at the high end of
1nt range. N could count 7 quick winners - 1s 5d 1c. E has most left over
hcp and many finesses should be ok. N should bid 3h (to ask S to bid 3nt if
h can be stopped). |
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f******e
发帖数: 465 | 26 That's right! The declarer hand was:
East:
S: Qx
H: Kxxx
D: AKQx
C: K10x
North's hand was:
S: AKJx
H: Q10xx
D: xx
C: J93
In actual play, South returned a H, arguing that 1) North's 1st discard of
C3 on 3rd round of D encouraged H return; 2) North's 1st S discard on the 2nd round of C discouraged S return as well. :)
In fact, if North first discarded C9 on 3rd round of D, declarer then had a chance to finesse C10 for the 7th trick. North's Sx discard on the 3rd round of C was also harmless (while... 阅读全帖 |
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p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 27 Some thoughts on one hand
This hand was played in the bbo money bridge game. You play with a robot,
your LHO also plays with a robot. The score format is total points.
You hold Ax K9x xx AKQ8xx , both white,
The first question is what to open?
Of course 1NT is a possible choice. However, this hand is probably
too strong for 1NT because of the strong suit in clubs. You don't need
a lot from partner to make 3NT. So you should open 1C, even play with
a robot.
The bidding develops :
1C p 1D 1H ?
Now... 阅读全帖 |
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p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 28 There could be another stronger line if you take HK on the first trick. When
you cash CA and opp drops C9, you can suspect that it could be a singleton.
So you just play back H right away to cut opp's connections.
If opps cash 4 hearts, you just come back to the squeeze position.
If LHO wins HT and shoot back D, you just play DA, back to CK to check the C
position. When the bad news comes (assume LHO discards a D), you just play
another H and play LHO for 4-3-5-1. If RHO cashes all his hearts, y... 阅读全帖 |
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l****a
发帖数: 272 | 29
我知道你是得猜, 砸RHO单张大牌, 在这副牌是有可能的.
但是我想问的是啥叫 double finesse
(单套打法, 跟本题无关, 假设RHO 不是单张) |
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p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 30 Both of your examples are double finesses. |
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b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 31 Both are double finesses, because two honors are missing in each case.
中文好像就叫“双飞”吧，我也不清楚，从没看过中文桥牌书，呵呵。 |
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p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 32 You can't beat the the other 6NT pairs also when LHO holds DQxxx and no HQ.
I think my estimation is actually quite close. Squeeze is slightly better to
beat the field than finesse, but the draw back is also quite high, around 8
-9% you lose to the field. |
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j*******e
发帖数: 2168 | 33 it seems DQ is with LHO and HQ with RHO...
I'll finesse. |
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p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 34 Here, the contract is actually not too bad. In top pairs event like the
final day of LM pairs or BR in US, I don't think the field would play in 7C.
At most 40% may reach 7C in my estimation. So beating those 6NTs can still
mean quite decent MPs even in that kind of events. Basically, if you make 7
and others don't, you may at least score 60% in such a tough field. If you
make 6, others make 7, your MP should be around 20%. If both make 6 or 7, it
is still somewhere about 40%.
For a weak field, ... 阅读全帖 |
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b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 35 I think you have to hope that declarer only has 4 diamonds and no D10. Then
ducking DK will work out more often:
1) When declarer has D9, ducking gives declarer a guess. If you cover, then
technically correct play for the declarer is to finesse partner's D10.
2) Even when partner holds T9x (which means that you *should* cover DK),
ducking may still work out OK, since partner should falsecard with D9 or D10
on first round of trump. So declarer may still guess wrong, not all is lost
. |
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p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 36 Well, it's not clear at all. Even if you play DK, declarer is not clear
whether it is good to finesse DT or drop your DT if you knows you tend to
always duck with DKx. because in that case, he should usually play to drop
your DT if he knows your tendency. So it's really a matter of game theory,
to mix both plays for a certain percentage. Also, DK would always beat it
when partner holds DT9x.
Then
then
D10
lost |
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p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 37 Also, if declarer knows that west's bridge is that deep and is capable of
false card a suit preference to induce a losing option, declarer can still
take the diamond finesse. Now it becomes a problem of how good you know
about your opps.
east
QT
go
not |
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w****b
发帖数: 623 | 38 But if RHO holds short C, even if it's a stiff CK, you are always safe if
you play CQ on first trick. The benefit of that is when you actually find
out RHO has Kxxx of C, you can still rely on D finesse to make the contract
-- even though in this case, it is more likely the S is 4-4. While low C on
first trick and low D to K deprives you this chance. |
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p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 39 Not really, 4-1-2-6.
Ruff, D to DK, C finesse. cash all clubs. In the final 5 card end game, keep
SKx and D AJx at dummy, cash D and play the last D to throw you in, only
down 1.
If you pitch low D, it is a down 2 game.
,
shift
1= |
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a****s
发帖数: 524 | 40 If H K couldn't stand, and declarer took club finesse,
the only trick left for you is S AQ, always down 1, no matter what you play.
keep |
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b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 41 Yes, but if you didn't pitch DQ, you may get 3 spade tricks. Pitching DQ is
like what they call "practice finesse": you don't gain anything when you are
right, but you may lose when you are wrong. |
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p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 42 I'll play DK, D ruff, and take the C finesse. west appears to hold HA, DQJ,
so east is likely to hold CK.
If east holds CKxxx, it's unlikely to make an extra overtrick. |
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a****s
发帖数: 524 | 43
You win the heart in hand and lead a spade. You are not proposed to take the
spade finesse, so you put on ace and run the 9 of clubs successfully.
Perhaps you will notice, at this moment, it cost nothing to ruff a spade in
hand, and the King appeared on your right on this trick.
You play King and another diamond ruff in dummy to run the Jack of clubs,
prepared to claim if both following, but lefty shows out.
now you can cash the 9 of hearts and lead Q of spades to catch RHO in a
trump coup. Th... 阅读全帖 |
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b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 44 Low-percentage play is basically just wrong play. It has a chance to succeed
, but the chance is not good. Just like, if you are declarer and you have
JT9x in your hand, AQxx in dummy, your percentage play is to finesse. If you
just play to A, it is not no-win play, you may drop singleton K, but it is
wrong to play like that, unless you have extra information to suspect
singleton K behind.
Of course we all make mistakes, but a mistake is still a mistake, not
something "unlucky". |
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p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 45 I still think you need to guess well to make it.
Suppose your opps play 3/5 leads. So he shows 2S + 5D. Then it's likely to
just play him to hold 2-3-5-3 shape. With that in mind, you can just try to
finesse his CJ.
Now you can play DQ, if RHO plays DK, you can just play LHO to hold CAJx or even AJxx. |
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p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 46 The thinking process can be different at the table. According to what you
have said, RHO showed DAK, stiff C and a possible H honor. So Shi Miao might
think that it is rather safe to take the S finesse, which may allow him to
make an overtrick, because with hands like:
SKxxx HQxxx DAKxx Cx, RHO would usually double 3C as a take out.
Shi Miao's bridge is way stronger than most (or perhaps all) on this board.
I still remember when I was a college bridge player more than 15 years ago in Beijing, I ... 阅读全帖 |
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b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 47 What do you mean "still any way"? The contract is virtually cold now. You
can over-ruff and play a club, hoping that LHO shows out, in which case you can make an overtrick. If LHO follows, you ruff in dummy (club should be 3-3), finesse spades, cash SA, then club (dummy pitches heart). RHO can ruff this, but has to give you DK. Make only 2.
Actually if LHO follows club, you can even try a simpler line: pitch H on the club, then just SA and SQ. RHO gets SK, but that's it.
The point is, once you p... 阅读全帖 |
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p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 48 You have to hope RHO to hold 3-2-4-4.
If RHO holds 3-2-4-4 shape, you can play the 3rd C, ruff it, take S finesse
and claim later.
If RHO holds 4-2-4-3 shape. You also need to ruff the 3rd C with low. Then
SJ and hope RHO doesn't cover it. |
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j*******e
发帖数: 2168 | 49 should still be fine, you are playing 2S, so can lose one more trick.
finesse |
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b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 50 It also depends on the system. For many players, this sequence (Stayman
followed by 4C) suggests 4 spades in addition to 5+ clubs, so opponents won'
t be pressured to jump SA. However, this pair is probably doing something
strange, since they respond 3H with only 2 hearts. Maybe their 3C isn't even
stayman? |
|
