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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 2 【 以下文字转载自 ChinaNews 讨论区 】
发信人: choi (choi), 信区: ChinaNews
标 题: China's April CPI Forcast as 8.5%
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue May 6 12:03:15 2008)
Goldman Sachs just released a report, which XFN (Xinhua Finanacial Network)
cited in a news report titled "China April CPI inflation seen rebounding to
8.5 pct: Gldman Sachs" which also said, "China is due to announce April CPI
data on May 12."
In part due to this, VOA Chinese today has a report titled "中国官员称控制通
胀是首要任务."
What are the causes of China's inflat |
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b***k
发帖数: 2673 | 3 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
magnitude (难以释怀) 于 (Sun Aug 3 15:24:13 2008) 提到:
有做 Forcasting Modle的么?工作好做么?该看些什么书?
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
stoneyl (stone) 于 (Mon Aug 4 06:31:12 2008) 提到:
u mean "forecasting model"
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
stoneyl (stone) 于 (Mon Aug 4 06:57:18 2008) 提到:
u mean "forecasting model"
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
JackSheng (重新振作) 于 (Mon Aug 4 09:15:49 2008) 提到:
forecasting what?
☆──────────── |
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w********2
发帖数: 16371 | 4 我一般er 有超过50%接近54%的准确率，不知是否能保持
猜yahoo rev beat erning meet , 支持美女ceo，封低捞
猜 vmw rev ok earning beat， 猜云走出谷底 看多
猜 msft rev beat profit beat，forecast soft, 看多
猜 lltc rev miss forcast miss，rev miss，forecast soso, 看跌
猜 isrg rev miss earning miss forcast ok, 看跌
猜 gpro rev 一般 profit 不错 forcast 一般，有跌就捞，看长期多
猜cmg rev meet profit miss 短期过热而衰
猜苹果 profit rev 都beat （因为前面forecast low ball） 看长期变衰，短期多（
买了leap put +短期 far otm call） |
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h****u
发帖数: 277 | 5 Er和forcast都是beat了的。花街的说法是forcast beat 不够多。呵呵。前面长得太猛
调整也好。
友情提醒下，这家公司上市从来就没Miss过，forcast一贯保守.
: 它家ER不好，趋势变熊了呀。
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a****1
发帖数: 654 | 6 LDK current forcast for Q1 2011:
Revenue : $745 ~ $755 million,
Gross margin: between 30.0% and 31.0%.
Which give a gross profit : 223.5~ 234.05 million
Prior forcast for Q1 2011:
Revenue: $800 to $850 million,
Gross margin : between 27.0% and 29.0%.
Which give a gross profit : 216~ 246 million
I can not see 业绩大降. ZLPW |
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g****t
发帖数: 31659 | 7 我之前说过多次，大盘的forcast目前industry是什么水平，
找本CFA的教材看看就明白了。
你要能把基准水平提高，找个年薪几M的risk officer工作不成问题。
所以就别纠结这个forcast的问题了。对这个大盘预测，什么民间
股神我都不信。不按美联储，中日欧央行的路数走，能有活路吗？
保险公司，银行的准备金怎么算的？怎么定的？这点基本概念都没有，
那还是别看宏观了。
其实别说股市了，你从现有观测数据里面，能把天气预报
的水平提高，那开个start up赚大钱是妥妥的。 |
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g******n
发帖数: 67 | 8 zero curve is built by using zero rates(only one coupon payment at maturity)
. Basis curve is defined as a comparison with swap curve。For example, USD
swap curve is based on Libor 3m, using 3m deposit, euro dollar futures and
swaps．USD Libor 6m curve is a basis curve. Although there is Libor 6m swaps
traded in the market, the most liquid ones are Libor 3m vs Libor 6m basis
swaps. Thus, theoritically, you can use 6m deposit, 6m FRAs and 3m vs 6m
basis swaps(the spread is added on the Libor 6m leg... 阅读全帖 |
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h****6
发帖数: 229 | 9 It is very difficult to make a forcast even for a couple of days with all
thes radars and satelites..
In US, you hear the joke " there is 50% of chance of rain and 50% chance of
sunshine. So bring with you umbrela and sunscreen." |
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A*****s
发帖数: 813 | 10 来源:创幻论坛 作者：周口店人
MA30:MA(C,30),COLORWHITE,PRECIS2;
hhv(h,20),COLOR7070ff,linethick1;
llv(l,20),COLORFF2020,linethick1;
MA125:MA(C,125),COLORFFFF00,PRECIS2;
反压线:HHV(FORCAST(C,10),18),colorff00ff,linethick1,PRECIS2,DOTLINE;
Var1:=(2*CLOSE+HIGH+LOW+OPEN)/5;
A1: (EMA(Var1,3)+EMA(Var1,6)+EMA(Var1,12)+EMA(Var1,24))/4,PRECIS2;
A2: EMA(A1,2),PRECIS2,COLORGREEN;
A3: EMA(A2,2),PRECIS2,COLORGREEN;
A4: EMA(A3,2),PRECIS2,COLORGREEN;
A5: EMA(A4,2),PRECIS2,COLORGREEN;
A6: EMA(A5,2),PRECIS2,COLORGREEN;
A7: EMA |
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A*****s
发帖数: 813 | 11 来源：创幻论坛 作者：周口店人
E:=(H+L+O+2*C)/5;
次日突破价位:E+(H-L),LINETHICK0,PRECIS2;
次日阻力价位:2*E-L,LINETHICK0,PRECIS2;
次日支撑价位:2*E-H,LINETHICK0,PRECIS2;
次日下跌反转价:E-(H-L),LINETHICK0,PRECIS2;
次日心理价位:(E+次日突破价位+次日阻力价位+次日支撑价位+次日下跌反转价)/5,
LINETHICK0,PRECIS2;
lhnh:=BARSLAST(DISPSTATUS=1)+1;
nnl:=DISPSTATUS=2;
反压线:HHV(FORCAST(C,10),18),colorff2020,linethick1,PRECIS2;
gj:=if(c=INDEXC,(INDEXC+INDEXh+INDEXl+INDEXO)/4,AMOUNT/(v+0.01)/100);
E1:=(REF(H,1)+REF(L,1)+REF(O,1)+REF(2*C,1))/5;
反转价:=E1-(REF(H,1)-REF(L,1));
明日阻力:=l+(g |
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b***n
发帖数: 13455 | 12 【 以下文字转载自 WaterWorld 讨论区 】
发信人: lukewang1983 (luke), 信区: WaterWorld
标 题: Re: Walmart 的利润有多高？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun May 23 00:50:39 2010, 美东)
呵呵，我是walmart的vendor,给你讲讲吧
单个产品的价格是不一样的，电子产品上100块的，基本markup 10%-20%之间，因为涉
及到每个产品
的运费不同，购买价格不同，导致每个产品的成本非常不一样。跟沃尔玛的buyer谈价
钱，是精确到1分
钱的，因为你不知道walmart的量多大，利润有多少。譬如说你买wii,walmart可能下单
一下下一年
的，虽然forcast不是很准，但是基本上，wii这样的东西量实在太大了，一订就是50-
100万的量，加
单就死，而且只能先满足他家，要是不给，马上威胁明年不给你做，做不出来也要做。
哪有vendor受得
了，一年少几个亿的量？1毛钱的差价，可能意味着5万-10万的纯利润就没有了。
其他你看到的日常用品，毛利walmart都保持在40%-50%，不 |
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f*******e
发帖数: 603 | 13 according to a recent survey, 90% of small to medium online gaming retailer
with monthly revenue of 1M or more forcasted a 20-30% drop year over year
for Q4 of this year. most of them blame the slow econmic and lack of new
release this year. |
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s******d
发帖数: 323 | 14 GMO 对未来各个asset class return的预测. |
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c******7
发帖数: 2586 | 15 公司算作是management/strategy consulting,不算大也不算小，名气不算太大。有针
对多个行业的部门： energy, IT,manufacturing, consumer products，government
agency等。
第一轮学校里的面试，然后第二轮电话面试，这次是第三轮on-site,下面还有个第四轮
的和partner的面试．
on-site当天三个behavior面试，问为什么选择consulting,为什么选择PA, 以及如何
handle team conflicts.另外还有就是谈论过去做的school/work project，如何处理
和客户关系等，以及为什么选择去我现在的学校．
中间有一个team exercise,给一个项目，选择怎样去选择最好的option,最后几个
candidates共同推出一个presentation给公司，同时回答各种刁钻的提问．
最后还有SAT style考试，有verbal/math，基本都是business week一类的阅读和
capital one的那些数学考试（就是看懂报表和forcast数据 |
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l******a
发帖数: 58 | 16 我面的是统计类的，就是问问怎么forcasting，怎么建模
然后针对简历问做过的project
因为本人半路出家，所以被刁难的多点，问问为啥转行之类的
上次挂了大概是因为为啥转行这个问题答得比较草率 |
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l******a
发帖数: 58 | 17 我面的是统计类的，就是问问怎么forcasting，怎么建模
然后针对简历问做过的project
因为本人半路出家，所以被刁难的多点，问问为啥转行之类的
上次挂了大概是因为为啥转行这个问题答得比较草率 |
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b****w
发帖数: 71 | 18 1. Data Scientist是在Search Science & Traffic的组，要求如下：
Job Description
• Excellent understanding of computer science fundamentals, data
structures, and algorithms. Experience in Java, Python or C++ is a
must.
• Experience in data mining and machine learning techniques like
feature extraction, decision tree, additive models, EM algorithm, SVM, etc
is a must.
• Experience in applied statistics including hypothesis testing,
analysis of variance, model evaluation, forca... 阅读全帖 |
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i*****e
发帖数: 2810 | 19 这个和FORCAST没关系。老祖宗说三岁看大，七岁看老，还是很有道理的。
孩子都是小时候好教，越大越叛逆，直到青春期过了，人也定型了。 |
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M****o
发帖数: 13571 | 20 经常看您在这里顶贴，不是故意打击您，还是多做些准备才更容易拉到投资。
比如说你得至少有个business plan and sales forcast, budget，最好还有已经运营
了的CPA certified financial statements。谨慎靠谱的投资人在做due diligence时
都会要求看这些的。 |
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c*****k
发帖数: 2080 | 21 Sure only for short term, maybe 2 two 3 weeks.
First and first, after this week, tell me one more bad news from any
financial firms, kaka.
Secondly, I read INTC's earning report again tonight and actually it is not
that bad, the AH action looks to me was overdone. INTC's earning actually
was okay and with an impressive margin improvement and forcasting. Look for
below words I quoted from WSJ:
"Stacy Smith, Intel's vice president and chief financial officer, stressed
in an interview that the comp |
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j****9
发帖数: 312 | 23 You won't get a retreat until S&P hits 1100. The market is just too over
sold at the moment. Any decent forcasts by companies will push the market
right backup. It might hit one more bump before September but after that
the bull should charge into the end of the year. |
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w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 24 赞酒馆，lz就不要觉得委屈了
Stock daily forcast这玩意，
要不Work的话贴了也白贴，
要Work的话自己留着就完了，
哪有还害怕别人不知道的，雷锋啊? |
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D****6
发帖数: 3429 | 25 2011上半年的很多东东都sold out了， 所以ldk's forcast should be really good |
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a********a
发帖数: 99 | 26 # Gann, W.D. - Mathematical Formula For Market Predictions.pdf
# Gann, W.D. - Wall Street Stock Selector.pdf
# Gann, W.D. - Method for forcasting the stock market.doc
# Gann, W.D. - 1922 Forecast.gif
# Gann, W.D. - 45 Years In Wall Street.pdf
# Gann, W.D. - Annual Forecasts 1919-1922.pdf
# Gann, W.D. - Annual Stock Forecast 1929.jpg
# Gann, W.D. - Astrology 2.jpg
# Gann, W.D. - Astrology 3.jpg
# Gann, W.D. - Astrology.jpg
# Gann, W.D. - Circle Chart.jpg
# Gann, W.D. - Coffee 1954.pdf
# Gann, W.D... 阅读全帖 |
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w******s
发帖数: 16209 | 27 forcast is out for q2?
The company said operating income in the second quarter would fall between 9
% and 65%. |
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d*****y
发帖数: 1365 | 28 你现在的这个forcast 做过back test吗，结果如何？ |
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P******l
发帖数: 1648 | 29 10am soon. ism expected 48.5 forcast 47.0
friday monday. 10am dip are all bought. But let's see this time and if we
have long black candle today. |
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r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 32 看来先前price in了相当多的negativity， 包括中国slow down。 |
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v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 33 基本price in了全球小型recession。现在的sentiement应该是“虽然慢，可我们还在
增长嘛！”不过离“虽然增长，可是真TNND慢啊！”也不远了。 |
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t*****9
发帖数: 10416 | 39 昔日黄花，win8 都不支持flash ～～～～～～～～～lol |
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v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 40 miss不是问题，他那一次都miss eps。这次主要是forcast的不够好 |
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r***l
发帖数: 9084 | 41 大概说两句，没有beat,算是比较好的in line. revenue同比增加39%, profit同比增加
17%，其实都不错，这些都严重和鹿鼎记原来的期望值不符。个人估计鹿鼎目前也就相
当于天龙八部营收的1/4-1/3。 cyou 8月报表后暴跌的本质原因是给的Q3 forecast太
低，市场预计鹿鼎记和天龙八部差不多，结果8月时候一看forecast不行,股价自然就掉
了。
当然现在鹿鼎记失望的因素价格已经price in了,今天出来报表只是确认一下而已，好
在cyou还没有miss.
补充两句，Q4 forcast也算比较好的in line. anyway, 目前只能说没好消息，也没坏消息。
打算握着没问题，股价和基本面比还是很attractive，打算抛了或者小割肉也不失明智，毕竟cyou流通股太少，起伏大，心脏容易受不了。 |
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i*u
发帖数: 299 | 42 you are right, maybe we are in a bull market.
My highlights are summaries of all the pages. I am just trying to point to
the reader what the focus on each page as well as the whole report.
I just built a new model to integrate the "seasonally adjusted sector
analysis" page into a more useful and understandable report. That I applied
monte carlo simulation to forcast one week returns based on historical daily
returns. I am still working on it, hopefully get it done soon. |
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K******r
发帖数: 4052 | 44 貌似只是FORCAST MARGIN MISS而已
尼玛 |
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f******y
发帖数: 830 | 45 Any one guess why? Analyst estimates the HCV drug sale is $3.5B to $5B.
Gilead total sale is $11B, but that is excluding the HCV.
So Gilead put half of their sale number off the guideline of 2014. |
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a*******l
发帖数: 98 | 46 fyi, syna has surged to 78 after hours after confirming buying display chip
maker Renesas SP (exclusively for iphone) and raising revenue forcast. I
luckily added some more shares right today around 65.5. |
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w**a
发帖数: 1522 | 47 UAL 各方位 raise forcast啊。。。 |
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h****5
发帖数: 191 | 48 maybe they lower the forcast |
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m***e
发帖数: 810 | 49 衡量TSLA股价的主要是delivery 和 forcast。不出意外Q3 delivery 7800 (best
number ever), Q4 guidance 14000+ (just blown-out）。
TSLA过去的瓶颈主要是production，Q4开始正式1000/week产能，还很可能exit with
1100-1200/week产能。Model X release imminent, Gigafactory substantial
progress ....
..
TSLA is a fast growing company, don't be freak out by such bear attack |
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b********0
发帖数: 91 | 50 cnn money forcast的中位数是77，底和顶是58和89 |
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