s********0
发帖数: 3644 | 1 忍着吧。
我看了它的fs，debt ratio 54%, 除了drys（25%），它是第二低的。我觉得在ship
number glut的时候，杠杆越高，利息负担越重。所以我看好它的季报。 |
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g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 2 one possible solution to the global problem:
RMB jumps and bounces in value in relation to USD. All Chinese all of a sudden
become or feel wealthy and spend like crazy. This demand surge pulls the world out of supply/over capacity glut.
Eventually, current account turns deep red at the same time RMB valuation
reaches an absurd level. China becomes a net borrower. RMB crashes. East
Asian Crises all over again, but at a much larger scale. World goes into
chaos. |
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d*****l
发帖数: 8441 | 3 New home sales slip again in June
By Blake Ellis @CNNMoney July 26, 2011: 11:21 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Sales of new homes slipped for a second straight
month in June, unexpectedly falling 1%, as homebuilders remained reluctant
to boost production.
The Census Bureau reported an annual sales rate of 312,000 new homes last
month, down slightly from a revised rate of 315,000 homes in May. Compared
to new home sales a year ago, June sales were up 1.6%.
Despite the year-over year uptick, the res... 阅读全帖 |
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k*********u
发帖数: 2897 | 4 信人: kunlunrunyu (返璞归真), 信区: Military
标 题: Re: 全球变暖，温室气体控制，基本就是个joke
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Dec 7 21:14:11 2011, 美东)
Carbon Credits Becoming ‘Junk’ Before 2013 Ban Closes Door: Energy Markets
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-06/carbon-credits-becomin
Investors are rushing to sell some United Nations emission credits before
they become almost worthless in 2013, pushing prices to a record low.
With Europe set to stop recognizing credits for projects that destroy
industrial gases known as hydrof... 阅读全帖 |
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k**********4
发帖数: 16092 | 5 Natural gas export debate grows
Simone Sebastian, Houston Chronicle
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Debate is brewing over whether to keep the nation's glut of natural gas at
home for cheap energy or export it at five times the price, possibly
creating jobs and boosting the domestic economy.
Businesses that purchase natural gas for industrial and residential use have
rallied against proposals to liquefy and export the fossil fuel to Asian
and European nations willing to pay much higher prices.
Nine co... 阅读全帖 |
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m****e
发帖数: 1197 | 6 http://www.lombardidigital.com/lcpa-sept26/index_ca.php?sb=ISA&
His first five predictions have already come true!
Critical Warning Number Six
Fail to heed this final warning at your own risk!
Dear Reader:
Something very big will happen in America within the next 180 days.
It will be more devastating than the credit crisis of 2008.
For most people, it will hit them like a brick wall.
It will touch Americans harder and deeper than anything else we’ve seen
since the Great Depression.
I feel so str... 阅读全帖 |
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y*******o
发帖数: 6632 | 7 First Solar Inc. (FSLR), the biggest U.S. solar manufacturer, halted
deliveries to the world’s largest photovoltaic power plant, which it’s
building in Arizona, because construction is ahead of schedule and the
company must slow down to meet contractual milestones.
First Solar won’t ship additional modules until January to the $1.8 billion
Agua Caliente project and won’t install panels currently sitting on the
ground at the site, said Fred Pech, the power plant’s construction manager.
The solar ... 阅读全帖 |
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l*******a
发帖数: 467 | 8 Housing data will take center stage next week as financial markets take a
day off on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.
A report on existing-home sales is due Monday. Like many housing statistics,
existing-home sales data, which measure closings of previously constructed
homes, condos and co-ops, have bounced around in recent months but the
trajectory seems to be moving slightly higher in the long run.
After years of an inventory glut brought about by record foreclosure levels,
the number of... 阅读全帖 |
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y******i
发帖数: 2584 | 9 Chanos Says Petrobras, Vale Are Two of His Favorite Shorts
By Jesse Westbrook - Nov 19, 2012 1:32 PM ET
Facebook Share
LinkedIn
Google +1
0 Comments
Print
QUEUE
Q
Jim Chanos, who oversees $6 billion at Kynikos Associates Ltd., said he’s
betting against Brazil’s Petroleo Brazileiro SA (VALE5) and Vale SA (VALE3)
, adding that investors buying the stocks risk subsidizing failed government
policies.
“Increasingly, these state and capitalist marriages end up giving
capita... 阅读全帖 |
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h***2
发帖数: 2351 | 10 如果是暖冬，可能到春天天然气的GLUT会比去年还高。 |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 11 http://business.time.com/2013/05/15/why-this-housing-upturn-loo
This Housing Upturn Looks Like the Real Thing
Ever since the recovery began in 2009, a weak housing market has held back
the U.S. economy. The first rebound in home prices was lackluster and after
only a year was followed by another dip. But the recent upturn in home
prices looks like the real thing. One clear sign of a turning point: In
March, homeownership hit a 17-year low, while the 12-month gain in home
prices was the biggest i... 阅读全帖 |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 13 GARTMAN: We're Witnessing The End Of The Oil Era
Business Insider
By Myles Udland October 27, 2014 6:14 PM
Dennis Gartman has a new forecast for oil: a lot lower.
In an appearance on CNBC's Fast Money on Monday, Gartman, publisher of the
Gartman Newsletter, said that crude oil prices will fall demonstrably from
current levels.
Earlier on Monday, it had been reported that Gartman saw crude oil going to
$10 a barrel, but he backed a bit off that claim in his appearance on Monday
, saying that mayb... 阅读全帖 |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 14 Buffett Said He Paid a Lot. $15 Billion Later, BNSF Is a Cash Machine. 'He
Stole It'
By Noah Buhayar Nov 10, 2014 8:48 AM CT
Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway said third-
quarter profit dropped 8.6 percent on investment results, including an
impairment tied to a holding of U.K. retailer Tesco. Bloomberg's Noah
Buhayar takes a look at the numbers on "Taking Stock." (Source: Bloomberg)
Days after Warren Buffett announced his $26.5 billion buyout of railroad
BNSF, he insiste... 阅读全帖 |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 15 China’s Stocks Head for Biggest Weekly Gain in Three Years
By Bloomberg News Nov 27, 2014 8:44 PM CT
China’s benchmark stock index headed for its biggest weekly advance in
three years on optimism a slide in oil prices will reduce costs for
transport companies and the central bank may extend interest-rate cuts.
Air China Ltd. and China Cosco Holdings Co. jumped more than 8 percent after
crude sank to a four-year low. China Everbright Bank Co. and Citic Bank
Corp. both climbed more than 3 percent,... 阅读全帖 |
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n*******y
发帖数: 3337 | 16 today's yahoo news
Russia oil output hits post-Soviet high, small firms help
Oil hits new five-year low below $56 as supply glut persists
都在增产，没有减产，没办法减啊。 |
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K********s
发帖数: 6 | 17 CALGARY, Alberta, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell will cut from 5 to 10
percent of the about 3,000 jobs at its Albian Sands mining project in
northern Alberta, a company spokesman said on Friday, but refrained from
connecting the move to plunging oil prices.
Spokesman Cameron Yost said the actual number of job reductions at the
Canadian operation had not yet been finalized, adding it would be "well
below" 10 percent.
The cuts were announced to Shell employees internally on Thursday.
"It's no... 阅读全帖 |
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J*******r
发帖数: 37 | 18 If the peace plan is not reached, the war is about to break out. Oil price
will continue to hike. I always feel the political factors outweigh the
supply-demand factor. The war is the solution to this. The glut of oil
supply is solved and oil price will roar again, while the Russia is still
plagued by War. |
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c*********v
发帖数: 589 | 19 早上看报告基本confirm API的数据, 比较吃惊. 10M以上的储存, 加上炼油厂开工(从
汽油量可以反应出来,基本汽油短缺被磨平)都没能降低储量.的确大大利空.
晚上终于有空仔细研究报告.又有新的一个视角.
首先进口大量增加(>10%). 这一项一个星期就增加6M. 所以增加的多数不是本地油,是
进口油 (重油,酸油? 这个东西进口多些,本地不太产). 为什么增加?炼油厂开工后, 用
重油的厂大进货?无论如何应当是个暂时现象. 另外,不认为进口的是甜油,除非炼油厂
疯了,不买WTI买更贵的Brent.
那么大家关心的美国油产量如何? 如果你读一下产量数据,可以发现和上周,上上周,基
本在类似水平. 这说明什么呢? 美油产量可能已经peak, 那么产量回落后, 五月储量应
该也peak. 这是个好消息. 大家大可不必恐慌.
这信息对我们有什么用呢?
1. 我觉得应该调整操作期望.
首先油价不应该再到42-44. 那个价钱对应着油满仓的恐慌. 但是这个牛皮已经破了.
到底这次的最低限在哪里呢?我们可以追溯这次涨价的历史, 可以看到如果储量增加,只
是glut,市场给它的定价在47.... 阅读全帖 |
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a****o
发帖数: 6612 | 20 你读错了好几个地方。
第一，WTI和Brent是benchmark。实际上交割的油，有相应的折扣。不管油是从沙特来
，还是从墨西哥来，在美国交割的以WTI为标准。
第二，现有的炼油厂，绝大部分处理不了页岩油轻油，需要和重油混了才能加工。也就
是说，如果美国的产量不降，那么要处理这些油，就必须进口一定比例的重油。当然，
对于原油公司来说，轻油和重油相混，好油和差油相混，可以在符合合同要求的同时，
获得最优价格。
第三，美国原油产量可能会进入一个平台期。比较长的一段时间内，不大幅上涨，但也
未必马上下降。
“首先油价不应该再到42-44. 那个价钱对应着油满仓的恐慌. 但是这个牛皮已经破了.
” 这个同时还有美元指数暴涨的因素。如果希腊违约，欧洲经济恶化，美联储加息，
美元还会涨。
“可以看到如果储量增加,只是glut,市场给它的定价在47.4或者以上. 我认为是这次行
情的硬底.” 现在库存还是增加趋势。谁能打包票说这种趋势不会延续到6月？到了六
月份，美联储会再开会；六月底是伊朗解除制裁的最后期限。 6月份可能会有更大的恐
慌。在最坏的可能下，不排除wti价格还会来一次下跌。
, 用 |
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b********s
发帖数: 272 | 22 Rare-Earths Miner Molycorp Prepares to File for Bankruptcy Protection
Molycorp Inc., the only U.S. miner and processor of rare-earths elements,
plans to file for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as soon as this month to
cut its $1.7 billion debt load, according to people familiar with the matter.
The Greenwood Village, Colo.-based company is completing a plan that would
involve senior bondholders exchanging some or all of their debt for
ownership of the company, some of the people said. It is ex... 阅读全帖 |
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f*****t
发帖数: 901 | 23 12年很特殊, 巨大glut加上天气很不favorable. 今年到2.0是极小概率事件. 当然如果
整个夏天都很凉快, 到接近2 也并非没有可能. 策略是低捞, 控制仓位, 一旦有反弹就
部分取利.
15
移动 |
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f*****t
发帖数: 901 | 24 google 一下当时的新闻. 巨大的glut到接近爆满. 最后公司减产才完事. |
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g*******e
发帖数: 3013 | 25 今年不会
为什么？
气源自油
...
[在 firebat (给我一掌海棠红) 的大作中提到：]
：google 一下当时的新闻. 巨大的glut到接近爆满. 最后公司减产才完事.
：【 在 Alumnus (Alumnus) 的大作中提到: 】
：........... |
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C********1
发帖数: 5281 | 26 前些年，大家天天喊能源危机，寻找替代能源。就因为美国从石头缝里挤出一点页岩油
，就石油过剩了？ |
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C********1
发帖数: 5281 | 28 就因为中国放缓了高楼大厦的建造，基础原材料就都过剩了？ |
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C********1
发帖数: 5281 | 30 就因为所谓的供需关系：供大于求，还是供不应求，就发生翻天覆地的变化。其实也就
只是差了那么一丁点。能源危机照样还是能源危机，就是当前供多了那么一丁点。 |
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s****n
发帖数: 485 | 32 我是想不通为什么过剩之后价格差这么多。以前200桶油，一桶100。现在也就220桶，
一桶60。 |
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c***x
发帖数: 1922 | 33 油不贵。巴马拿啥说事呀。不过，这是鸡蛋的问题。搞不懂呀。 |
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m*********h
发帖数: 5449 | 34 政治经济学。
发信人: marketwatch (市场观察), 信区: Stock
标 题: 总结教训，最近一年只有一个股票做的不好 WLT
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jun 8 22:21:24 2015, 美东)
9块买的5块卖了，好在同时买了X, AKS, AA，都在较高价位抛了，所以这部分就当白做
了，错误很大，但损失不大。最近这些资源股都不好，尤其是WLT今天跌到0.30了，估
计马上就摘牌了，特此发帖纪念，纪念的是割肉的那天，老天爷对我太好了。
教训：下手太早。本来是要布局通胀，结果发现奥黑对待共和党不是一般的狠。回过头
来想想，2008年这些资源也涨到天上了，说明共和党也不是善类。狗咬狗的时候，离远
点别被连累。
我承认有时会错得很离谱，错误一定还会再犯，模型也要不断完善。 |
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C*K
发帖数: 400 | 36 我也没研究啊。就觉得那个地方太tmd闭塞，又不靠海，pipeline又少，太依靠local
需求。感觉在蓝州盖化工厂也不容易啊，而且化工产品的glut也很严重吧。ngl价格更
是大幅缩水啊
：或者被收购? 或者在它PA附近的气田盖什么化工厂增加需求?
： |
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C*K
发帖数: 400 | 37 所以现在有rumor国内四大化工油企要整合 上下游互补。最近美国的drivers驾驶的里
程都要破纪录，wti竟然跌成狗了，炼油厂还加速进口，进一步加大glut。这个down
cycle真不知道要洗掉几个chk。
：一桶石油基本上可以提炼31加仑的汽油和柴油。
： |
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C*K
发帖数: 400 | 39 我敢代言么？一直就不看好这个公司，本身问题太多了。Natural gas glut，low
realized gas price，资产负债表问题，low(little) production growth，cash flow
问题。 |
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s*****o
发帖数: 459 | 40 上个月autosale 特别是truck/suv销量增加10%以上，consumer credit 爆增20%，主要
是由于0利率汽车销量带动的，在这种环境下，consumption demand减少？不是睁眼说
瞎话吗？呵呵
是花街想让人们相信oil glut，媒体的报道是有选择性的 |
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g*q
发帖数: 26623 | 41 oil glut是事实
美国和中国的石油消费是在增加,但是其它国家(欧洲,日本,印度,还有OPEC自己)的消费
都不行.中国的消费增幅也低于预期,虽然进口量不低(头7个月同比增加10%),但是多数
用于储备而不是消费.
最关键的是产量.美国的产量比8年前翻番,再加上沙特恶性竞争,其它出口国为了保证总
收入也在增产.这样就造成了过剩,而且会持续一段时间.
当然一旦美国产量开始下降,新能源车推广受阻,那时候沙特也会减产,油价会暴涨.但是
这个时间可能是3-5年之后,不是3-5个月. |
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C*******r
发帖数: 10345 | 42 这是要把投机客全部歪炮的节奏了
UWTI Market Cap Continues to Grow
The world saw oil prices decline in 2014 and early 2015 on the heels of
record-level well productivity, advances in extraction techniques and a dip
in global demand for crude. Combine this with a relatively stronger dollar,
and American consumers have received a huge break at the pump. Commodity
investors haven't been as ecstatic; crude prices declined nearly 60% over
the course of one year. In spite of this, one exchange-traded note (ETN)
contin... 阅读全帖 |
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f**********r
发帖数: 2137 | 43 像你这种不要命只要效率的不就是土共的做法么，最后结果就是医疗没保障，年轻人赚
了钱也不敢花存起来，搞个saving glut引爆全球金融危机 |
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u********3
发帖数: 3785 | 44
Cushing build少是mm的一个炒点。
地球人都知道这个季节crude会build，build多少而已
历史上没有glut这几个礼拜也有几个M的build的
EIA如果没显示特别多的build其实是中性的，看产量，汽油、柴油什么的存量才知道
等10点半吧
10/21/2015
All eyes on EIA |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 48 OPEC is at war - and it's sending shockwaves around the world
By Matt Egan @mattmegan5
Crude truth behind oil's global boom
OPEC is broken.
Oil prices fell below $40 a barrel on Friday after a 7-hour OPEC meeting in
Vienna highlighted the deep divide within the cartel.
OPEC surprised observers by failing to agree on an official output quota,
leaving production near record highs despite the massive glut keeping prices
low.
"The cartel is basically broken," said Matthew Smith, director of commod... 阅读全帖 |
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r****a
发帖数: 447 | 49 “OPEC on Wednesday predicted oil prices will rebound in coming years,
;and the cartel said it expects to reduce its own production by 2019.
The report comes after global oil pricesthis week fell to levels not
seen since 2004 amid an increasing glut.”
难怪今天石油涨。看来OPEC是不想听美国人的话了。。。 |
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g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 50 Markets | Wed Dec 9, 2015 2:32pm EST
Biggest 2016 risk may be the one just behind us: oil
------------------
The biggest financial risk in 2016 may be the one that's been on stage all
year.
Financial markets have been living with the consequences of the energy
deflation since mid-2014, and the fallout has been pervasive. The idea of
another shock of that magnitude is unnerving to say the least.
More than a trillion dollars of market capitalization has been wiped off oil
stocks worldwide.
Almost ... 阅读全帖 |
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