h*****u
发帖数: 16 | 1 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/EO058i005p00236
At 1936 LT, the evening of February 4, 1975. a magnitude 7.3 earthquake
occurred near the town of Haicheng. Liaoning Province, in the People's
Republic of China. This earthquake was widely felt through northeastern
China and caused coniderable damage to existing structures and cultivated
land in the epicentral region. Approximately 90% of the structures in
Haicheng, a city of 90,000 people, were destroyed or seriously damage... 阅读全帖 |
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e**s
发帖数: 513 | 2 I am from Haicheng, and I wasn't born yet when the earthquake happened. But
I heard a lot of stories from my dad and other relatives. At that time,
Haicheng had already rehearsal for a big earthquake many times before the
real one hits. The government always broadcast the possiblity of a big
earthquake in near future. So citizens were all aware about it and knew how
to act upon the real one. So, the real reaons it was accurately broadcasted
is that the government paid much attention to it. If it... 阅读全帖 |
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I********l
发帖数: 8702 | 3 你在之前的一个回帖里曾经说，“（海城地震）预测成功，不具备科学上的指导意义，
这是科学结论，不能用政治结论来改变科学结论。”
http://www.mitbbs.com/article/Military/39561935_0.html
那么，能否请你继续阐述一下，你有何依据认为海城预测成功不是科学呢？
在google scholar用haicheng earthquake做关键词搜索，可以找出4710篇英文论文。
难道你认为这些都是政治论文而不是科研成果？
具体到海城预测成功的历史评价，我用”重大突破“来形容，并不算过分。人类历史上
第一次成功发出7级大震的临震预报，这不是重大突破，什么是重大突破？难道非要洋
人盖章画押才能认可本国人民的伟大成就？
那好，请你读一下美国地质调查局（USGS)网站关于地震预报的文字。第一段开宗明义
的说，“科学预报地震的现代纪元可能始于二十世纪七十年代中后期。1975年冬季，中
国官员根据科学家以及民间观测员给出的大量地区出现异常现象的报告，下令疏散辽宁
省海城的百万居民”。
The modern era of scientific earthquake... 阅读全帖 |
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y******n
发帖数: 4527 | 4 It is not 海河地震. It is Haicheng earthquake.
I know this is not your typo and it is from the person you replied. But it
is obvious that you do not know the correct answer. |
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d*****s
发帖数: 363 | 5 please list who did the correct forecast before????....
Have you heard Haicheng forecast? Every know it--maybe except you.
You also can search --中国地震预测大师翁文波先生.
翁文波对1982年~1992年国内地震预测60次，实际发生52次，错报8次，准确率86．67％
；时间平
均误差41．75天；地点平均误差399．71千米；震级平均误差0．72级。
对1986年~1992年国外地震预测次数70次，实际发生58次，错报12次，准确率82．85％
；时间平
均误差48．35天；地点平均误差692．10千米；震级平均误差0．61级。有的预测精确，
令人惊叹，
如预测
1989年4月26日墨西哥7级地震，实际时间仅提前一天，地点完全准确，实际震级为7．3
级，仅差
0．3级。
And many people have forecast before tangshang and sichuang earthquakes.
Wiki could be |
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