I***e
发帖数: 1136 | 1 这两种策略不等价。
我们假设股票现价100。投资人买100股，高利贷一万美元。另外一种情况总投入500美
元赌涨，买一个call。
如果一个月后，股票120美元一股，那么两种情况回报是一样的。
如果一个月后，股票原地没动，那两种情况都是亏损500美元。
如果一个月后，股票80美元一股，那买Call的优势就体现出来了：损失只有500美元本
金。而借高利贷的方式则损失在2500美元。
所以，两种投资方式只是在到期日时股票价格在起始价格之上时才等价。
-iCare- |
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I***e
发帖数: 1136 | 2 希望不等于现实。如果你认为downside protection一文不值，那是十分错误的。
在大萧条时跳楼的破产投资人们肯定不同意。他们付出了生命的代价。
事实上，买call是很好的投资方法。如果你用options来投资，那一定记住，市场是有
偏差的。大部分投资者会卖covered call来提高回报，或者买put限制亏损。因为这样
的bias，使得call的价格偏低，而put的价格偏高。所以反着去做，买call和卖put会使
期望回报率上升一到两个百分点。Goldman去年有一篇研究报告说的就是这样的
strategy。
另外，你关于强制止损的论点不全面。假设这个100元的股票先掉到80，然后涨到150，
你如果强制止损了，那绝拿不到最后。可是买call的话，就没有问题。
-iCare- |
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I***e
发帖数: 1136 | 3 Looks like you sold a butterfly at around 15, with $2.5 of spread on each
side.
What's good about your trade is, all four legs ends up making money. That's
very rare for a butterfly, and you must be taking out your positions
individually, that is, you may be swing trading the underlying, selling
calls / buying puts when it rallies to 16, and selling puts / buying calls
when it drops to 14. Apparently, the only position you have left now is the
short position in $12.5 put which has only 1 week to... 阅读全帖 |
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n***r
发帖数: 2074 | 5 我觉得有宝马奔驰不开，开icar的，基本都是SB |
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I***e
发帖数: 1136 | 6 If this line of argument works, then we can derive that market will never
fall.
Market falls -> frogs scared -> _therefore_ market will rebound -> nothing
bad will happen :)
Are you saying in the weeks and months after Obama wins 2008 election the
market wasn't frightening retail investors?
Truth is, nobody has a clue what'll happen. It's all random. It may go up or
down tomorrow, next week, and next month. What you can control is your risk
level, not the market condition.
-iCare- |
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I***e
发帖数: 1136 | 7 How can the stock board be so wrong? Odds so good today.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------
寄信人: tooearly (郎教授不炒股)
标 题: 博彩中奖通知
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov 14 15:55:35 2012)
来 源: mitbbs.com
Icare,您好：
恭喜发财!
您于2012-11-13 23:18:53在Stock版购买的50注关于主题<
竞猜>>的彩票中奖,
收获伪币159.28个，请注意查收
tooearly |
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D*w
发帖数: 1011 | 8 北京时间3月8日消息，据国外媒体报道，苹果已故创始人史蒂夫•乔布斯（Steve
Jobs）生前曾表示，他最终希望苹果能够生产汽车。虽然近期这种可能性几乎为零，
但是种种迹象表明，苹果正与汽车厂商合作，悄无声息地欲把汽车打造成iCar。
苹果目前的一系列动向，包括招聘新员工、推出新产品以及建立合作伙伴关系表明，苹
果正试图为其他企业生产的汽车打造iOS操作系统。
证据如下：
苹果正在招聘与汽车业相关的工作人员。苹果不断增加像“iOS汽车服务”（iOS Car
Services）和“车载软件测试经理”（Manager, Software QA (In-Car)）这样的岗位
。车载软件测试经理是最新增加的工作岗位。
苹果建立合作伙伴关系。去年秋，苹果高管埃迪•库（Eddy Cue）加盟法拉利董
事会，如今苹果和法拉利已在公开讨论合作事宜。
苹果不断为iOS添加汽车友好功能。据不完全报道，苹果针对iPhone和iPad的最新操作
系统iOS 6的一项功能即为Siri Eyes Free。凭借这项功能，用户可以不用看就能操作
iOS设备。很明显，这对驾驶人员非常有用。当前... 阅读全帖 |
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g**********2
发帖数: 2408 | 9 不要迷信教主，如果不是教主，iphone的大屏幕手机早出来了. 现在的苹果机的最大短
板就是没有大屏幕。
其实如果去读读jobs自传，很多的idea他都是反对的，后来又把功劳算在自己头上。苹
果的工业设计一直靠的是JONATHAN IVE. 现在还是干的好好的。
其实所谓创新，都是下面人搞出来的。提个概念还不简单？ 我张嘴就来：itv, icar,
ihouse, ibed, ikitchen, |
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I***e
发帖数: 1136 | 10 Top will be around here (within 10 points)
Downside 1420.
-iCare- |
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c*********o
发帖数: 8367 | 11 i DON'T THINK YOU MAKE ANY MONEY ON GOOG FOR NOW. AS ICARE SAID...LOL
BUT IF YOU KEEP PLAYING, YOU MIGHT BE.. |
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s*********d
发帖数: 1998 | 12 agreed.
unless it comes up with the next market killer. i.e. iTV, iCar, iPlane,
iKitchen, iToilet, etc. |
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m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 13 我直接上 icar, iship and iplane. |
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I***e
发帖数: 1136 | 15 In this case, GS actually telling the truth.
GS doesn't hold the risk on their books. They simply use the options market
to hedge out all their risks in such "structured notes".
For example, one of such deals can be:
You make 7% if AAPL doesn't drop 10% in 1 year.
From that point, you lose 1% per each 1% drop. So if AAPL drops 17%, you
break even. If AAPL drops 25%, you lose 8%.
Assume the client want to do 10mm of such trade today, when AAPL = 456.83,
GS will simply hedge the risk by writing 24... 阅读全帖 |
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I***e
发帖数: 1136 | 16 That is because put writing is beyond many institution accounts' mandates.
Also, many rich folks have very limited knowledge of how the banks are
ripping them off.
A friend used to show me the following structured product based on S&P 500
offered by AXA financial:
- Term is 1 year.
- Your account tracks S&P, capped at 10% gains.
- If S&P loses money, they swallow the first 8% of losses.
So, if S&P drops 20%, you'd lose 12%. If S&P goes up 15%, you make 10%. If S
&P loses 5%, you get your money b... 阅读全帖 |
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I***e
发帖数: 1136 | 17 10000000 / 410 = 24390.24 shares, so options should be 244 lots.
410 put for a year now is selling for 30.73 (source: Bloomberg) at the time
i wrote the post.
Options are very useful tools. However, for financial illiterates, anything
can be used to fool them...
-iCare- |
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I***e
发帖数: 1136 | 18 the bank didn't take the risk... it's just a hedge of the contract sold to
the client.
the whole deal for the bank is:
1. Sell a client this product. Essentially entering into a contract
promising the client this payoff. That is, selling the payout to the client.
2. To hedge the risk, replicate the payoff by entering into the combo
options trade in either open market or institutional market.
If you just look at 2, of course it looks like the bank took the risk :)
-iCare-
's
( |
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s*********d
发帖数: 1998 | 19 Wow, looks like I'm going to lose big if wrong. Who said WB is nothing? Can
you give me some if you don't care? So far I have the following bets. But
hill168 and NYKnicks, you don't have enough WB though. It can't be a valid
bet if you knew you can't pay the bail if lose. Can you confirm if you'll
get enough WB?
hill168 (need WB confirmation)
NYKnicks (need WB confirmation)
lovefreedom (confirmed)
Icare (confirmed) |
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s*********d
发帖数: 1998 | 20 I can bet 200 WB on this, 2 weeks to 480.
I can bet with 6 person based on the amount of WB I have right now.
===================================================================
Disclaimer - Please don't buy based on my perception because I might be
terribly wrong. (But I still want to play the bet).
===================================================================
List of bets below:
NYKnicks (confirmation with credit)
lovefreedom (confirmed)
Icare (confirmed)
gongjie437 (confirmed)
luke837 (... 阅读全帖 |
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s*********d
发帖数: 1998 | 21 Wow, looks like I'm going to lose big if wrong. Who said WB is nothing? Can
you give me some if you don't care? So far I have the following bets. But
hill168 and NYKnicks, you don't have enough WB though. It can't be a valid
bet if you knew you can't pay the bail if lose. Can you confirm if you'll
get enough WB?
hill168 (need WB confirmation)
NYKnicks (need WB confirmation)
lovefreedom (confirmed)
Icare (confirmed) |
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s*********d
发帖数: 1998 | 22 伪币。都是冲动害的。破了好，乐得清静。以下的人除了information应该已经收到
200WB了。一
天转账不得超过一千。你的明天转。
http://www.mitbbs.com/article0/Stock/34637893_0.html
NYKnicks (confirmation with credit)
lovefreedom (confirmed)
Icare (confirmed)
gongjie437 (confirmed)
luke837 (confirmed a 147WB bet)
information(confirmed) |
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g*********e
发帖数: 14401 | 23 apple需要不断推出类似ip, ipad mac air这种革命性的产平，打出新的category赚取
高magrgin. 同时逐渐放弃旧的，竞争强大的产品线。
只有这样才能增长，要不就是被copycat玩死。
potential product:
iCube, iBall, iCar, iShoe, iKey, iWife, iHusband, iPorn, iDish, iGlass, iHat
, iBra
tons of thousands to be reinvented! My ass! |
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I***e
发帖数: 1136 | 25 No idea where market will go. That said, I think volatility is going to
explode (or has already exploded), and option sellers will be punished.
-iCare- |
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I***e
发帖数: 1136 | 26 Hidden BSO post :)
MCP touches your price ($6.20) at 3:30 then dropped 3%, and it swiftly
recovered and hit your price after close. That's a giant fill of 4,564,000
shares, and is the NYSE close print. Today is a busy day so the print came
out at 16:03:54.
Good trade. But you really should have used a market order at 3:30 to pay
that 1c and be sure you get out.
-iCare- |
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I***e
发帖数: 1136 | 27 紫荆美眉说不上是反指。毕竟她是在ES跌倒1632点的时候说的调整结束了。然后ES旱地
拔葱35点之多。
不过说调整结束了似乎有点儿早：SP从1360直升到1710，掉到1635算什么调整？后市似
乎没有什么好消息可以期待，因该会有大的波动。
-iCare- |
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I***e
发帖数: 1136 | 28 A major problem is I don't know any of their products.
EDU has so many users of their services that everybody knows it's a legit
business.
NQ may be an outright fraud, and it would not surprise me if it goes to <$2
in a year.
-iCare-
EDU
高。 |
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u****r
发帖数: 478 | 29 AAPL
iBeacon(iWallet), iWatch, iTV, iOS 8(iCar) |
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I***e
发帖数: 1136 | 31 好吧，我解释一下。
MLP是Millennium，他们对新的Quant Manager的要求一般是在5%回撤时减半杠杆率，在
10%回撤时收回投资。
Brevan Howard对于他们新雇的投资经理也是类似的5-10%还是7.5-15%（记不清了）。
这两家都是很大的公司，我觉得可以代表业界对于没有太多的外界可确认信息的投资标
的提出的一般性的要求。
-iCare- |
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m********8
发帖数: 7463 | 32 icare大牛的名号已经纵横江湖有好多年了
他的武功不是一般小散户能看懂的好伐 |
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I***e
发帖数: 1136 | 33 老的基金因为有很长时间的业绩记录，所以投资人会更有准备处理大一些的回撤，比如
五年前Citadel的两种旗舰级别的基金就分别腰斩，然而Citadel有20年的记录，所以很
多投资人选择留在基金里。
对于楼主这样的未经大资金检验的管理方式，如果是想去MLP或者Brevan Howard去融资
可能就会面对10%的最大回撤的要求。同时，如果小资金年实收Sharpe在2以下的话，一
般就不用去谈了，呵呵。
-iCare- |
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I***e
发帖数: 1136 | 34 Impossible to have $0.03 price for 50C with 3-month to go. Standard Black-
Scholes produces a 0.35 price for 20% implied vol.
So, probably your 50c is with June expiration? :)
-iCare- |
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r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 35 美国的老汽车业积重难返
未来的希望在TSLA（电动车）和GOOG（无人驾驶）。可惜乔帮主早逝，不然还有iCar。 |
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L***6
发帖数: 8307 | 36 开始转金融业，丫的资金完全可以开个商业银行，至少一个网络银行，厨子看着一个浙
江文科小瘪三靠着手机购物，支付和理财，能尼玛忽悠个史上最大IPO，尼玛搞软件搞
网站加金融的市井文科瘪三，竟然赚钱比这些绞尽脑汁做精品硬件的nerds要快的多，
苹果转型是必须的。
未来可能是： 一个Apple id，同时也是银行账号，里面的钱通过Apple pay直接网上或
实体店消费苹果产品和iStore产品，还有其他接受Apple pay的商家，AP既是信用卡也
是debit card也是paypal。iBank的利息也可能像理财宝一样高一点，这样用AP的人就
多，商家会乐意接受AP，苹果反过来在储户消费的时候把利息通过手续费赚回来。
有了巨额的存款，苹果也可以做银行业务，比如放各种贷款，特别是买苹果产品的贷款
，可以给出很低的分期利率。
不排除还有iCar，iHome，像Google一样涉及汽车业，特别是高度自动化的智能电动车
。iHome可以是个全新构思的建筑，用模块化的新材料组装，打造一个高度电子化智能
化的居住环境，能源全部依靠太阳能，家具都是苹果范儿的而且都尼玛电子化，整的和
宇宙飞船一样，电... 阅读全帖 |
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h******s
发帖数: 3420 | 37 以后增长不光靠卖phone 啦，靠把各种东西绑在一起。
比方 Apple pay 必须有 iPhone, I watch 像遥控器发展，会带动 iTV, iCAR, I
kitchen , I home
I watch 本身可以向 medical equipment 发展，比方无穿刺跟踪血糖（现在看来不可
行以后不一定），光是测血糖这块美国一年多少钱？
要有想像力。人有多大胆，地有多大产。 |
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b********n
发帖数: 5997 | 38 你也不会下。嘿嘿。
[在 Icare (土豆自风流) 的大作中提到：]
：让业余4段六个子怎么也得业余六段或者职业初段了吧。天下没有人可以让职业棋手6
个子。 |
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c*******9
发帖数: 6411 | 40 when you see all these product is going to coming out..
iwatch, icar, icondom ...
you know the apple is running out of ideas |
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w**k
发帖数: 6722 | 41 不是说好了
iPod
iPhone
iPad
iMat
iMac
iCar
iHouse
iStock, and
iWatch
么？ |
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n*****e
发帖数: 237 | 42 他颠覆整个汽车行业？当其他车商都是吃干饭的。还有苹果也即将研发“iCar”。
这个股票确实被操纵得太厉害。 |
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L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 43 First of all, "nothing becomes available" is more likely to happen with oil
than electricity. Battery are nothing more than capacitors to hold
electricity. many kinds of metal can hold electricity. from Lead, to Nicad
to lithium, and now aluminum - i don't see why u would think battery would
become exhausted? the price can only go down, how soon? nobody knows.
Lithium battery was quite expansive when it first came out, but now its
fairly cheap. - just check the price on your iPhone portable char... 阅读全帖 |
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x********o
发帖数: 2092 | 44 苹果会上1000刀again，现在苹果用户基本上每年1%的收入交给苹果，等icar出来，果
子基本稳收十一税。 |
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b*********n
发帖数: 13256 | 45 叫ICar,伊大嘴负责忽悠。 估计逼果股票立马窜到150+。 |
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g***n
发帖数: 14250 | 46 花姐就喜欢果果冒险一点，现在的手机平板玩了这么多年太小气巴巴了 |
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e*********r
发帖数: 337 | 48 Highly unlikely... Apple car is the worst kept secret in silicon valley or
on wall street anyway. Besides, Apple does not respond to rumors and it
never reveals its future products that are still in the development stage.
The chance of apple revealing anything related to Apple car during a
earnings conference is zero.
Iphone was the "bet the company" project in which Apple spent all its money
and resources it had at the time. Had the iphone flopped, Apple would have
been dead. Nowadays, with 165... 阅读全帖 |
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v****r
发帖数: 353 | 49 果不是已经确认project titan了吗？
[在 goFan (够范) 的大作中提到：]
：花姐就喜欢果果冒险一点，现在的手机平板玩了这么多年太小气巴巴了 |
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