m*********n
发帖数: 6098 | 1 转帖
If you asked me to distill trading down to its simplest form, I would say
that it is a pattern recognition numbers game. We use market analysis to
identify the patterns, define the risk, and determine when to take profits.
The trade either works or it doesn't. In any case, we go on to die next
trade. It's that simple, but it's certainly not easy. In fact, trading is
probably the hardest thing you'll ever attempt to be successful at. That's
not because it requires intellect; quite the contrary... 阅读全帖 |
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i*******e
发帖数: 1904 | 2 Market retreats on impulsive waves, and the downward momentum will most
likely get a pause on the 5th day or 6th day. Just my personal experience. |
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L**J
发帖数: 606 | 3 CF all time high了
太不爽了，180的时候想着first impulse肯定fail就先出来了，然后就傻b了 |
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s******i
发帖数: 132 | 4 true that but i find option gambling more exciting and its winning more
satisfying.
The regret is more on me not thinking much about it and being too impulsive.
Bad example here. |
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m*****u
发帖数: 5534 | 5 他自己的解释是：
The CIS（COBRA IMPULSE SYSTEM） actually is not bad, it’s just me, human,
made a lot of mistakes but it kind proves the system is too difficult to
follow. I’m working on a new version now.
—— Cobra
也就是说，老蛇冲动模型没有错！所有的错都是人！就像古板大牛，大牛永远没有错，
你理解错误才是错！！
不过，不知道老蛇觉得what is easy，比如收费赚钱？
另外，老蛇今天承认他的大盘3 push up pattern破产了。 |
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m*****u
发帖数: 5534 | 6 www.hutong9.com 股文观止的版主
N年来一直坚持天天分析大盘，从去年开始收费。他的分析从来都是小学生看图说话，
对交易没有任何帮助。他自己的Cobra Impulsive system 今年亏6%，还是一直交易2倍
大盘ETF |
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b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | 7 我还隔壁A君是好朋友。近几天见他没事总是唉声叹气的，觉得有必要关心一下，就邀
请他来家里吃顿便饭。席间一打听才知道，原来A君买的股票已经被套了近两年也没什
么起色，最近好像更有深跌的危险。我想作为好友，有必要给他出出主意。于是说：这
种 buy and hold 的方法其实风险也挺大的，这么长时间不解套好像不太妙啊，实在不
行现在就止损出来以求东山再起吧。另外可能做 swing trading更适合你，不会一套就
那么长时间。A君连声说好，满意而去。
过了一个月，我遇见A君问他怎么样了。结果A君说，自从做swing trading, 还是总被
套，只是被套的频率和次数变多了。我一听，觉得自己没帮到A君反而害了他，就又给
他出了个主意。我说干脆你把钱分成几份，分阶段的买入和卖出吧。几个月后A君自己
跑来说，没什么起色，只是从一次性被套变成阶段性被套。
后来我发现A君就是个被套的命。我说你买股票之前先好好分析下公司的业绩，资产和
盈利之类的再买。他反馈说他花了两个星期分析的股票还是被套了，据说可能是前面涨
得太猛了，把后面两年的盈利都提前 price in 了。我说 fa 不行就改 TA ... 阅读全帖 |
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l********3
发帖数: 175 | 8 Yep... 1st, sooner or later AMZN will go back to where it truly belongs to:
a retailer, instead of a high tech company, and no longer enjoy a P/E that
only high tech companies can have--thats below 50. 2nd, MAZN can never
provide the window shopping feeling we women like, no impulse buy, no big
money from us, its only a low end WMT:) |
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l********3
发帖数: 175 | 9 Yep... 1st, sooner or later AMZN will go back to where it truly belongs to:
a retailer, instead of a high tech company, and no longer enjoy a P/E that
only high tech companies can have--thats below 50. 2nd, MAZN can never
provide the window shopping feeling we women like, no impulse buy, no big
money from us, its only a low end WMT:) |
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Q*****T
发帖数: 558 | 10 I saw this too...
That's exactly why I had a moment of impulse to place a buy order...
And this morning it was already 15% up when I first checked...
Not sure if it's still a long candidate or not... |
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c****w
发帖数: 2830 | 11 今天道指收的巨型下阴影线hammer，后面做个小flag然后继续暴跌，作为指数比较少见
，我好像没看见过。
常见的是至少百分之五十的反弹，2000年10月，以及2010年flash crash之后是两个例
子。不过方式不同，一个是zigzag，另一个是impulse类型。
还有可能的就是没有爹干净，继续下跌，比如2011年8月的例子。这种情况下下跌连续
性较强，出现缓冲型小flag可能型不大。
大Hammer，要么就是大反弹来解脱，或者需要大震荡来释放。一下子给憋成小号的轻微
反弹，违反自然规律。 |
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N****p
发帖数: 1691 | 12 黑盒子 Graham和Elder都讲了无数次了 overfit近期数据 不能针对新情况调整
多数是赚很多次小钱 然后亏几次大钱 就全部赔进去了 准确率确实是>80% 总体还是亏
的 准确率又有何用
有一个公认的简单准确又免费的预测系统 Elder Impulse 只要红变绿 马上买 绿变红
马上取利
系统极其简单 只用EMA13和MACD 准确率也极高 但是不能consistent BEAT大盘 又有
何用? |
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n***t
发帖数: 8357 | 13 盘中并没有出现那种IMPULSIVE涨的情况。
看起来累 |
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N****p
发帖数: 1691 | 14 随便一个symbol+时间点 让TA来预测接下来的走向 当然准确率不高 只能达到80%多准确
不需要太复杂的系统 一条EMA一个MACD Elder Impulse System就可以做到70%以上
但是有时候stars aligned TA能做到 “当自己确信的时候 达到95%以上准确率"
致力于消灭最后5%失误率 达到99%以上 |
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N****p
发帖数: 1691 | 16 我不知道你有多少交易经验
靠TA的没有一个交易ALL-IN的 所谓compound的算法真的没有什么参考价值
另外这里说的不是自动交易 一个人要很努力才能平均每周找到一次 “十拿九稳”的机会
假设每笔交易只投入账户的10% 一年下来52次交易每笔都+20% 税后也就是账户翻番 这
个很多人都能做到
再说说你的compound算法 为避免wipe out 可以选择只把利润拿出来ALL-IN
假设前10次交易全部成功 产生足够利润后 本金继续按照原计划进行 产生的利
润不断记账到利润部分 一年里选择特别好的10次机会 把当前利润全部ALL-IN
这么激进的策略下 一年52次交易每次+20% 税后账户也就翻5倍 10万本金也就变成50
万 何谈胜过巴菲特？？？
更何况适合小账户的方法未必适合大账户 花街高手操作小账户 能做到每年翻番的绝对
不少 只是人家用操作大资金的方法 操作大资金 创造的价值更多
上面链接的Elder Impulse System 你自己可以数数看 有账户的话可以看30年数据 正
确率到底有没有70%以上 如果按照日线周线操作 08年熊市里做多都能接近break-even... 阅读全帖 |
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p*******r
发帖数: 23 | 17 Looks like AA is testing the OCT. low of 13.71 for the first time in a very
impulsive way. For a long term holder/buyer, today is a entry point. However
, as I have explained in the previous reply, this is not ideal entry point.
You should look for adding more positions between 12.7-11.6. For short term
trader, looking for and setting a stop just below the 13.7 or today' low and
looking for the price bounce back up to 14.2 or upto 14.6 in the following
days for profits.
Good luck!
not
|
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c****w
发帖数: 2830 | 18 萝卜兄下面大盘有一定的可能是个impulse往上，跟暴跌往下的利润有的比。可以考虑
叛变一次哈。 |
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p******e
发帖数: 17163 | 19 I will stay my course and put it to hell
[在 cfgatw (cfgatw) 的大作中提到：]
：萝卜兄下面大盘有一定的可能是个impulse往上，跟暴跌往下的利润有的比。可以考虑
：叛变一次哈。
：........... |
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k*****i
发帖数: 102 | 20 How many of these rules do you follow?
http://get.chartpattern.com/super-follower-chris/
Chartpattern.com Interview notes with
Super Follower Chris
These are some of the basic rules and methods Chris H. claims he used to
turn $10k into over $2,400,000.00 since the April 2012 Chartpattern.com
Seminar. While these gains were not verified, we have no reason to doubt
the results after reviewing some of the trades during this interview. These
exceptional results did not come from luck, but rather a ... 阅读全帖 |
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E***r
发帖数: 1037 | 22 5min k线有点像经典的Elliott Wave
向下三个impulse waves已结束
向上两个corrective waves正要开始 |
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r*****e
发帖数: 7853 | 23 归零 + impulsive noise + white noise |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 24 they r a gang of mean, selfish, greedy, cynical, grumpy, impulsive,
tactless and clueless 反中-bigots! |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 25 they r a gang of mean, selfish, greedy, cynical, grumpy, impulsive,
tactless and clueless 反中-bigots!
only PAINS 'd change their behavior |
|
发帖数: 1 | 26 （2）亚历山大·埃尔德博士和《以交易为生》
亚历山大·埃尔德博士出生于前列宁格勒（今天的彼得堡），生长在爱沙尼亚。16
岁上大学，22岁医学院毕业。他向往自由，不愿受约束。完成一年住院实习，便去轮船
上当随行医生。在非洲象牙海岸最大的港口都市Abidjan，他见机跳船，跑到美国大使
馆申请政治避难。1974年2月，辗转来到美国纽约。当时，他随身只有几件非洲带来的
夏季衣服，25美金，会讲一些英语，但在美国举目无亲。当年的苏联，仅仅持有几张美
钞就足以让人在西伯利亚劳改三年，所以，他更不会知道何为股票、债券、期货或期权。
1976年夏天，他驱车从纽约开往加利福尼亚。沿途在风景优美的国家公园露营，顺
便读了律师朋友借给他的书，恩格尔的《如何买股票》。他被这本不起眼的书深深吸引
，从而改变了人生轨迹。回到纽约，他马上买了生平第一只股票 - KinderCare。
学习股票交易是一个漫长的过程，他经历过成功的喜悦和失败的沮丧，若干次交易
账户几乎归零，不得不重新回到医院工作，积累资本， 这样周而复始。同时，他的交
易也在逐渐进步。他大量阅读，反复思考、测试，然后又开始交易。但真正的突破拐点
要... 阅读全帖 |
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T*******e
发帖数: 4110 | 27 【 以下文字转载自 PDA 讨论区 】
发信人: ThetaWave (Theta), 信区: PDA
标 题: The Land That Failed to Fail - The New York Times
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Nov 18 23:13:40 2018, 美东)
A "good" piece from NYT...
.......
China now leads the world in the number of homeowners, internet users,
college graduates and, by some counts, billionaires. Extreme poverty has
fallen to less than 1 percent. An isolated, impoverished backwater has
evolved into the most significant rival to the United States since the fall
of the Soviet Union.... 阅读全帖 |
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r*****e
发帖数: 7853 | 28 弃车逃跑
[在 CornucopiaX (斑马鱼公司总裁) 的大作中提到：]
:好的，加了油，在一个motel pull over准备休息，check in后，准备去吃饭，发现车
:起动不了了，有人帮我jump start,没用，说有很多电池。表盘上写engine service
:soon.车坏了吗？怎么办？还有1900迈的路要开回家，请高手帮忙，现在在new Mexico
的Gallup.55555
:谢谢！
:Running unites our two most primal impulses.
:We run when we're scared, we run when we're ecstatic, we run away
from our problems and run around for a good time. And when things look worst
, we run the most.----Chapter 2 |
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s**********o
发帖数: 14359 | 29 油管只要大幅度增大投资好SHOW，搞死奶飞没有问题
油管的广告收入是无限的，而奶飞只能靠有限的MEMBERSHIP,
奶飞只要拍出几个烂SHOW就砸锅，奶飞的模式，其实是大锅饭的
模式，看多看少一个价，好的坏的都投资。油管拍的IMPULSE和ORIGIN
还是不错的，但投入还是小了，没有大腕，只要SHOW好看
有点广告也不介意，收费肯定会砍掉90%的观众。 |
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b******7
发帖数: 207 | 30 Title:
Inferring causation from cross-sectional data: Examination of the causal
relationship between hyperactivity-impulsivity and novelty seeking
If interested, please drop me a line to my mailbox with your biographical
information. Thanks. |
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t***l
发帖数: 335 | 32 我不到两年。。。我觉得先不要恐慌吧。。。
http://lawandborder.com/communist-party-members-ineligible-gree
看这几个。。是不是statement里需要有强调的侧重点？
First, a person is admissible if the membership or affiliation terminated at
least five years before the date of application. INA § 212(a)(3)(D)(iii) (
or 2 years in the case of a country where the Communist Party doesn’t
control the government). Notably, inactivity can lead to termination of
membership. A Party member who fails to take part in regular Party
activities, pay membersh... 阅读全帖 |
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t***l
发帖数: 335 | 33 我不到两年。。。我觉得先不要恐慌吧。。。
http://lawandborder.com/communist-party-members-ineligible-gree
看这几个。。是不是statement里需要有强调的侧重点？
First, a person is admissible if the membership or affiliation terminated at
least five years before the date of application. INA § 212(a)(3)(D)(iii) (
or 2 years in the case of a country where the Communist Party doesn’t
control the government). Notably, inactivity can lead to termination of
membership. A Party member who fails to take part in regular Party
activities, pay membersh... 阅读全帖 |
|
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T**7
发帖数: 264 | 35 请发给我：
你的
（1）简短的PUBLICATION LIST
不超过5篇文章
（2）你的名字
（3）学位
（4）EMAIL地址
谢谢
entitled "Serum soluble CD30 - a marker of airways inflammation in multiple-
trigger wheezers?"
Article Type: Original Article
Background: Imbalance in activation of T-helper cell types 1 (Th1) and 2 (
Th2) may have a link with the development of asthma. Objective: To evaluate
the role of serum soluble markers of Th1- and Th2-lymphocyte activation with
regard to lung function, inflammatory markers, and therapy response in 90
pre... 阅读全帖 |
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d*********g
发帖数: 23 | 36 收到一审稿邀请，打算推荐一个审稿人审，有兴趣的可以发消息我, 请附上简单的介绍。
题目：A new structural based post-interpolation method for restoring
intensity of the pixels corrupted by impulsive noise
journal: Journal of Visual Communication and Image Representation |
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k******y
发帖数: 1407 | 37 如果你是本邻域，请留下名字， 学校与Email
并附上一小段英文研究经历介绍，方便推荐时发给编辑
KEY WORDS：
Norm-bounded Sontag-based controller; impulsive switched nonlinear uncertain
systems; Lyapunov analysis; Sontag's formula; numerical simulation. |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 38 娈童和同性恋都被认为是某种心理疾病.
现在gay佬们把同性恋是病这种讲法推翻了.然后自然而然的, 有人要跳出来为娈童癖正
名了.
Pedophilia
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Pedophilia or paedophilia is a psychiatric disorder in which an adult or
older adolescent experiences a primary or exclusive sexual attraction to
prepubescent children, generally age 11 years or younger, though specific
diagnostic criteria for the disorder extends the cut-off point for
prepubescence to age 13.
Pedophilia has been described as a disorder of sexual preference,
phenomen... 阅读全帖 |
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l***n
发帖数: 812 | 39 分享一篇文章给大家看看。
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000087239639044459240457803035
Jennifer Bristol recently lost one of her oldest friends—thanks to a
Facebook fight about pit bulls.
The trouble started when she posted a newspaper article asserting that pit
bulls were the most dangerous type of dog in New York City last year. "
Please share thoughts… 833 incidents with pitties," wrote Ms. Bristol, a 40
-year-old publicist and animal-welfare advocate in Manhattan.
A recent study looks at rates of over... 阅读全帖 |
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m*****1
发帖数: 500 | 40 哈哈，确诊还是不错的， 如果精神病辩护成立，行为人就无需对自己的危害行为承担
刑事责任。大家不要欺负精神病患者哟！
精神病辩护（Insanity Defense）是美国刑法的关键因素之一，因为如果精神病辩护
成立，就可以反驳犯罪嫌疑人具有所指控罪的犯罪心态[1]。但对于精神病辩护这一问
题，美国刑事法学者们一直争论不休，正如有学者所言：“很少有什么理论像精神病辩
护这样饱受争议。”[2]“尽管精神病辩护已经作为一种辩护存在了几个世纪，但在刑
法领域中恐怕没有其他的问题遭受如此多的争议。”[3]因此，精神病辩护是美国刑事
法学界长期关注的焦点。本文试图对美国刑事法中的精神病辩护制度作初步探讨。文章
第一部分为精神病辩护存废之争，阐述了美国关于精神病辩护存与废的争议及其对立法
、司法的影响；第二部分为精神病的法律标准，从进化论的角度分述了美国曾经适用过
的或正在适用的各种精神病法律标准；第三部分为精神病辩护案件的审理，分析了精神
病辩护的提出、证明责任分配与证明标准、审理程序、裁定以及专家证人的作用；第四
部分为因精神病而被判无罪者的关押与释放，探讨了因精神病而被判无罪后精神病人的
关押、... 阅读全帖 |
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d*h
发帖数: 2347 | 42 Impulse Control Disorder, 其实看上什么好东西老长草不买不舒服也是ICD... |
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t******o
发帖数: 5314 | 43 对方律师肯定在挖路虎的各种纪录，希望能找到一些impulsive behavior/bad
judgement的例子，然后提出路虎当时overreact。 不过有人用刀子扎胎的时候，冲出
去怎么都不能算overreact。
defense
test |
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t******o
发帖数: 5314 | 44 对方律师肯定在挖路虎的各种纪录，希望能找到一些impulsive behavior/bad
judgement的例子，然后提出路虎当时overreact。 不过有人用刀子扎胎的时候，冲出
去怎么都不能算overreact。
defense
test |
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g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 45
In the 1960s, however, Princeton made a conscious decision to change,
eventually opening its admissions to urban ethnic minorities and women. That
decision has now borne fruit. Astonishingly, the last three Supreme Court
nominees — Samuel Alito, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan — are Princeton
graduates, from the Classes of 1972, ’76, and ’81, respectively. The
appointments of these three justices to replace Protestant predecessors
turned the demographic balance of the court.
Why did the Protest... 阅读全帖 |
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g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 46
In the 1960s, however, Princeton made a conscious decision to change,
eventually opening its admissions to urban ethnic minorities and women. That
decision has now borne fruit. Astonishingly, the last three Supreme Court
nominees — Samuel Alito, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan — are Princeton
graduates, from the Classes of 1972, ’76, and ’81, respectively. The
appointments of these three justices to replace Protestant predecessors
turned the demographic balance of the court.
Why did the Protest... 阅读全帖 |
|
g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 47 ......
In the 1960s, however, Princeton made a conscious decision to change,
eventually opening its admissions to urban ethnic minorities and women. That
decision has now borne fruit. Astonishingly, the last three Supreme Court
nominees — Samuel Alito, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan — are Princeton
graduates, from the Classes of 1972, ’76, and ’81, respectively. The
appointments of these three justices to replace Protestant predecessors
turned the demographic balance of the court.
Why did the P... 阅读全帖 |
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z******r
发帖数: 756 | 48 Whenever I hear anyone arguing for slavery, I feel a strong impulse to see
it tried on him personally.
- Abraham Lincoln |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 49 他是有错，应该受到处罚。但是一个法制社会，不该这么impulsive。什么都是一阵风。
你赶上了，就直接上限--6个月；你没赶上，啥事儿没有。简直是儿戏。 |
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s********e
发帖数: 1898 | 50 macy's的FF，我记得impulse，coach，designer shoes都参加，同理到ugg
今年下半年，普通sale pass的exlusion也少了很多
lz贴的款式很新，这1个月内等到大打折的机会太小了 |
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