s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 1 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said U.S. unemployment may take
five years to fall to a normal level and that Fed purchases of Treasury
securities beyond the $600 billion announced last month are possible.
“At the rate we’re going, it could be four, five years before we are back
to a more normal unemployment rate” of about 5 percent to 6 percent,
Bernanke said according to the transcript of an interview to air today on
CBS Corp.’s “60 Minutes” program.
The purchase of more bonds than pl... 阅读全帖 |
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y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 2 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: coldface (送你一朵红玫瑰), 信区: Stock
标 题: 当前股市及未来走向分析
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jun 11 22:59:40 2011, 美东)
为庆祝版主上任，为大象申请板斧所激励，也写个小文，娱乐一下。就凭记忆写，有错处一定指出。
分析当前股市要从2009年3月6日那天说起。why? 因为那天非常特殊，DOW 从最高14000
点跌到6500点，跌幅超过50%。这种跌幅之前在美国股市一百多年的历史上只有两次，
1929年和1969年，2009年是第三次，正好40年一轮回，天意？巧合？
言归正传。从2009年3月6日至今，是一个两年多的大牛市，dow 几乎翻倍。在这两年里
，发生两次较为引人注目的回调，2009年夏，回调近9%，2010夏，回调近15%，其它小
波动小于5%，几乎可忽略。2011年夏这近6周回调大约7%。大家都在想，回调结束了？
还是一年高于一年，继续回调？
牛熊都怎么想呢？
现在坏消息这么多，低GDP，high unemployment, potential inflat... 阅读全帖 |
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a***r
发帖数: 146 | 3 2012 markets: Expect ups and downs
BY Jurrien Timmer, Co-Manager of Fidelity® Global Strategies Fund,
Fidelity Viewpoints — 12/21/11
Consider U.S. stocks, high-yield corporate, and floating-rate high-income
bonds.
It’s been quite a year, one of violent mood swings but little overall
direction. We seem to be in a time warp where everything happens faster and
faster. Everything seems to be correlated. There are very few places to hide
, and even those places don’t feel like good options anymor... 阅读全帖 |
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H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 4 关于房事,我有几点臆测,我自己认赌服输,对自己的行为负全部责任,所以我自己从股市
里抽了点钱出来在一个中等偏上的区买了一个房子,但是你们不认识我,所以你们不要相
信我的推理.
(1) 股市还没有恢复到2007高点, 是否仍然有上涨空间, 当然有, 是否有回调, 当然有
, 把握不好的话, 会死得很难看的, 我最近在GAME上亏了很多, 幸亏BP和Sprint大涨,
所以基本持平.
(2) 天下大牛(包括本不男客)都在高唱没有inflation, 经济小步增长, 病人逐渐康复,
公司deleverage, 所以没有inflation. 我却觉得inflation毕竟是要来的, 因为
inflation可以解决很多巨大的问题. inflation本身是剧毒无比的断肠毒药, 但是正如
砒霜, 也是可以做药的, 政府的赤字(原来欠债800块,inflation后还你800块等于实际
还你500块), 人民币的汇率(原来一个蛋糕两美元, inflation后卖10美元, 大家纷纷卖
美元买人民币, 人民币上涨压力就更大了), 企业补贴(低利率加上inflation就等于实
际负利率, 是变相补贴 |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 5 http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20101103a.htm
Press Release
Release Date: November 3, 2010
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in
September confirms that the pace of recovery in output and employment
continues to be slow. Household spending is increasing gradually, but
remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower
housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and
software is risi... 阅读全帖 |
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h*l
发帖数: 807 | 6 Release Date: August 9, 2011
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June
indicates that economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower
than the Committee had expected. Indicators suggest a deterioration in
overall labor market conditions in recent months, and the unemployment rate
has moved up. Household spending has flattened out, investment in
nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains
depressed. ... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 7 For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June
indicates that economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower
than the Committee had expected. Indicators suggest a deterioration in
overall labor market conditions in recent months, and the unemployment rate
has moved up. Household spending has flattened out, investment in
nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains
depressed. However, business investment ... 阅读全帖 |
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u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 8 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tooearly (郎教授不炒股) 于 (Mon Jul 11 20:46:11 2011, 美东) 提到:
这篇文章写得很用心，作者表达观点也很充分，
文章很不错，
教授帮着顶一下。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
USAsheriff (badge) 于 (Mon Jul 11 21:44:26 2011, 美东) 提到:
现在跟70年代不一样了，现在是全球化，美国发行货币，通涨转向海外了。
经济周期里，从底部起来后是要有温和的通涨，不然就没有人愿意买东西了。不都等着
下跌后再买？巨型通胀在目前的经济全球化下几呼是不可能的，中国有多少生产能力？
大大超过了它自己的消费能力，只要中国的大工厂在，没有可能巨型通胀。要有也要等
到经济到达高峰后才出现，现在说巨型通胀还太早了。
么？
肯定很糟糕。为什么？因为巨大的inflation很可能会来了。
之间的money multiplier开始涨了。你可以简单的把M0看作Fed撒给银行的钱，而M2... 阅读全帖 |
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B*********e
发帖数: 909 | 9 The dollar traded near the lows of the day against a basket of currencies
after a Goldman Sachs strategist said the greenback will need to drop by a
lot more than Federal Reserve thinks in order to meet the central bank’s
inflation target.
"Statistically, the pass-through from Dollar declines into US inflation has
always been low, and appears to have fallen to near negligible levels in
recent years," said Goldman's Robin Brooks in a note today. "This means that
the Dollar needs to fall a lot fur... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********g
发帖数: 30882 | 10 谢国忠：2011年不是中国玩完了就是美国玩完了。言下之意就是你死我活的斗争开始了。
来源: miat42 于 2010-12-27 07:18:16 [档案] [博客] 旧帖] [转至博客] [给我悄悄
话] 本文已被阅读：1101次 字体：调大/调小/重置 | 加入书签 | 打印 | 所有跟帖 |
加跟贴 | 查看当前最热讨论主题 Andy Xie: Either America Or China Will Crash
In 2011
Gus Lubin | Dec. 27, 2010, 9:25 AM | 767 | 2
Andy Xie's latest sees the liquidity war getting worse in 2011.
America will continue to pump the financial system with liquidity via tax
cuts and quantitative easing. China will keep the yuan cheap and avoid
clamping down on inflati... 阅读全帖 |
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|
h******i
发帖数: 661 | 12 你们学校ap能发这么多paper?
1989
Cosmological implications of quasar-galaxy associations, L.Z.Fang, Y.Q.Chu
and X.F. Zhu, Mod. Phys. Lett., 4, 887.
Geometrical optics in an inhomogeneous universe, L.Z.Fang and X.P.Wu,
Chinese Phys. Lett., 6, 233.
Quasar clustering and its cosmological implication, L.Z.Fang, Inter. J. Mod.
Phys. A4, 3477.
L'Osservatorio astronomico di Pechino: la sua storia, il presente, L.Z.Fang,
Scienza e Tecnica, Annuario della EST 88/89 404.
Overview on the frontier of high energy astr... 阅读全帖 |
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S******8
发帖数: 24594 | 13 老方到美国后发的文章列表，你自己看吧：
1990
174. Biased clustering in a universe with hot dark matter and a cosmic
string, L.Z.Fang, S.P.Xiang and L.Yan, Astr. & Astrophys. 233, 1.
175. Periodicity of redshift distribution in a T-3 universe, L.Z.Fang, Astr.
& Astrophys. 239, 24.
176. An upper limit to quasar's peculiar velocity, L.Z.Fang, Y.Q.Chu, X.F.
Zhu and L.F. Wang, Inter. J. Mod. Phys., 5, 2993.
177. Quasar pair and quasar's peculiar velocity, L.Z.Fang, Developments in
general relativity, astrophysics and qu... 阅读全帖 |
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s*****g
发帖数: 3693 | 14 呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵
变着法骂中国车，隐藏深的汉奸就是你吧
http://newsroom.aaa.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/vehicles-wit
Volvo
C30 (2008 – 2013): Spare tire optional, inflator/sealant kit provided when
not equipped with a spare
C70 (2006 – 2013): Spare tire optional, inflator/sealant kit provided when
not equipped with a spare
S60 (2012 - 2013): Spare tire optional, inflator/sealant kit provided when
not equipped with a spare
S80 (2008 – 2013): Spare tire optional, inflator/sealant kit provided when
not equipped with a spa... 阅读全帖 |
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X***9
发帖数: 7385 | 15 我贴一下详细信息吧。这个是高田气囊的回召，高田气囊可能因为释放力道太强而把一
些老旧松掉的配件震碎然后以飞溅的方式对成员造成伤害。
有以下车型的同学要注意一下
贴一下受影响厂家的回复态度和可能的车型列表
宝马车型
In support of NHTSA's Preliminary Evaluation (PE14-016) into Takata Holdings
' airbags,
and at the request of NHTSA, BMW will conduct a voluntary limited regional
parts
collection campaign for the vehicles identified below, although BMW has not
determined
that a safety defect exists:
为了支持nhtsa的高田气囊评估，宝马会配合自愿有限度的区域性的回召以下车型
2001 - 2005/3 Series Sedan
2001 - 2006/ 3 Series Coupe
2001 - 2005/3 ... 阅读全帖 |
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s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 16 随着FED 不断的使用宽松的货币政策， 一定程度的INFLATION 恐怕很难避免。
起码看起来， Bernanke 是要两害相取权其轻， 宁可通货膨胀， 也要经济走出萧条。
在INFLATION 的环境下， 首先受伤害的将是 BOND， 特别是长期的BOND 的价格， 过去的一个DECADE 是BOND 的牛市， 在未来的几年， 恐怕很难再指望BOND 每年将近10%的收益了。
如果比较 STOCKS 和 BONDS 这两个ASSET CLASS， 过去大量的历史资料表明，短期内，都很难说是很好的 INFLATION HEDGE。(参考资料： STOCKS FOR THE LONG RUN)不过， 因为拥有STCOK 也是拥有对上司公司拥有的一部分HARD ASSET的CLAIM， 长期看， STOCK是比BOND 更好的 INFLATION HEDGE。至于在INFLATION 的环境下， 究竟购买什么样的STOCK 最 MAKE SENSE， 我希望以后发贴详细探讨。
我个人认为作为工薪阶级， 现在可以应对 可能发生的INFLATION 的另外一个办法是购买 RENTAL P... 阅读全帖 |
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y****i
发帖数: 17878 | 17 Fixed rate = 0.00%
Semiannual inflation rate = 1.53%
Composite rate = [Fixed rate + (2 x Semiannual inflation rate) + (Fixed rate
x Semiannual inflation rate)]
Composite rate = [0.0000 + (2 x 0.0153) + (0.0000 x 0.0153)]
Composite rate = [0.0000 + 0.0306 + 0.0000000]
Composite rate = 0.0306
Composite rate = 3.06%
if the Semiannual inflation rate becomes 0.75%, and fix rate remains 0%
Fixed rate = 0.00%
Semiannual inflation rate = 0.75%
Composite rate = [Fixed rate + (2 x Semiannual inflation rat... 阅读全帖 |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 18 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: sephiroth (SOLDIER), 信区: Stock
标 题: 关于股市（本来想回帖，结果越写越多）
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Feb 13 22:02:56 2016, 美东)
现代世界金融规则基本是90年代初建立起来的,90-91年几件大事包括苏联倒台,海湾战
争全面确立了美国的国际霸主地位.从此国际金融秩序都是在美元主导下直至今日.所以
归根结底一切问题都要回到美元的monetary policy.
1990年以前USD的M2 Money Supply基本和US Nominal GDP 吻合, 换句话说velocity of
money supply长期稳定.今天和1990年以前比大概有30%的gap. 91-94年格林斯潘时期
衍生品大爆发加上Fed一些列policy的变更迅速扩大market leverage ratio. 1995年美
元印钞机开动money supply重回5-7%增速,但已经确立的金融杠杆没有明显减少,直接导
致接下来两次bubble. IT和地产都只是花街的媒体,钱多了总归要... 阅读全帖 |
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j****y
发帖数: 1714 | 19 http://library.hsh.com/read_article-hsh.asp?row_id=85
The questions are simple enough: What's going on with mortgage rates?
What makes them rise, or fall? Is it the Fed? The economy? Inflation?
The banks? The President? Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac? Is it a secret
conspiracy?
The answer is that rates are moved by a number of related factors, and
believe it or not, you -- Joe or Jane Consumer -- are one of those
factors.
Mortgage money can come from many sources, including deposits at banks
and brok... 阅读全帖 |
|
s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 20 发信人: stocksguru (guru), 信区: Investment
标 题: 在通货膨胀的环境下，RENTAL PROPERTY 是好的投资
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Dec 14 17:50:16 2010, 美东)
随着FED 不断的使用宽松的货币政策， 一定程度的INFLATION 恐怕很难避免。
起码看起来， Bernanke 是要两害相取权其轻， 宁可通货膨胀， 也要经济走出萧条。
在INFLATION 的环境下， 首先受伤害的将是 BOND， 特别是长期的BOND 的价格， 过去的一个DECADE 是BOND 的牛市， 在未来的几年， 恐怕很难再指望BOND 每年将近10%的收益了。
如果比较 STOCKS 和 BONDS 这两个ASSET CLASS， 过去大量的历史资料表明，短期内，都很难说是很好的 INFLATION HEDGE。不过， 因为拥有STCOK 也是拥有对上司公司拥有的一部分HARD ASSET的CLAIM， 长期看，STOCK是比BOND 更好INFLATION HEDGE。至于在INFLATION 的环境下，究竟购买什么样的... 阅读全帖 |
|
t*********e
发帖数: 313 | 21 Press Release: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20110126a.htm
Release Date: January 26, 2011
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December
confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that
has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor
market conditions. Growth in household spending picked up late last year,
but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth... 阅读全帖 |
|
c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 22 The Near- and Longer-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy
Good morning. As always, thanks are due to the Federal Reserve Bank of
Kansas City for organizing this conference. This year's topic, long-term
economic growth, is indeed pertinent--as has so often been the case at this
symposium in past years. In particular, the financial crisis and the
subsequent slow recovery have caused some to question whether the United
States, notwithstanding its long-term record of vigorous economic growth,
might n... 阅读全帖 |
|
c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 23 Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August
indicates that economic growth remains slow. Recent indicators point to
continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment
rate remains elevated. Household spending has been increasing at only a
modest pace in recent months despite some recovery in sales of motor
vehicles as supply-chain disruptions eased. Investment in nonresidential
structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depre... 阅读全帖 |
|
k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 24 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-einhorn/fed-interest-rates_
A Jelly Donut is a yummy mid-afternoon energy boost.
Two Jelly Donuts are an indulgent breakfast.
Three Jelly Donuts may induce a tummy ache.
Six Jelly Donuts -- that's an eating disorder.
Twelve Jelly Donuts is fraternity pledge hazing.
My point is that you can have too much of a good thing and overdoses are
destructive. Chairman Bernanke is presently force-feeding us what seems like
the 36th Jelly Donut of easy money and wondering... 阅读全帖 |
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s*****n
发帖数: 5488 | 25 经过内部擦屁股的版本。考虑到这个鸟公司一贯作风。我相信它是short sequeeze然后
反被别人搞了。因为对手盘资金更雄厚。
Iskil’s positions were reported large enough that they moved prices, so
that buying protection on the index was cheaper than buying protection on
the individual credits underlying the index.
Hedge fund traders reportedly started calling Iskil the “London Whale” and
began placing a variety of bets against his positions. Many believed that
his position was so large that he would have to lose money once the index
and the underlying cr... 阅读全帖 |
|
s*******h
发帖数: 1361 | 26 现代世界金融规则基本是90年代初建立起来的,90-91年几件大事包括苏联倒台,海湾战
争全面确立了美国的国际霸主地位.从此国际金融秩序都是在美元主导下直至今日.所以
归根结底一切问题都要回到美元的monetary policy.
1990年以前USD的M2 Money Supply基本和US Nominal GDP 吻合, 换句话说velocity of
money supply长期稳定.今天和1990年以前比大概有30%的gap. 91-94年格林斯潘时期
衍生品大爆发加上Fed一些列policy的变更迅速扩大market leverage ratio. 1995年美
元印钞机开动money supply重回5-7%增速,但已经确立的金融杠杆没有明显减少,直接导
致接下来两次bubble. IT和地产都只是花街的媒体,钱多了总归要找地方投资,无论投什
么也担不起实体经济的增速,最后泡泡总归要破.
90-07年的金融大方向就是leveraging和deregulation,对银行的限制形同虚设,世界范
围内的Basel II到2007年还没有implement. 货币一直超发,所有as... 阅读全帖 |
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m****s
发帖数: 8992 | 27 we all live in the yellow inflatable, yellow inflatable, yellow inflatable.
we all live in the yellow inflatable, yellow inflatable, yellow inflatable.
in the town, where i was born, lived a man, who sailed to sea.
the Sky of blue, and sea of green,
In our yellow inflatable |
|
G*********8
发帖数: 644 | 28 Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve may need to slow or stop its
purchases of U.S. Treasuries in response to an accelerating U.S. economy
next year, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said.
“If the growth rate of the economy continues to strengthen and looks
sustainable, then I am going to be looking for the Fed to react to that,”
Plosser said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio’s “The Hays
Advantage,” with Kathleen Hays. “That may be to cut back on the degree of
accommodatio... 阅读全帖 |
|
h*v
发帖数: 173 | 29 昨天,今天老将依然造谣说死了人.事实是没有
【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: EUV (奶特都是卖国贼), 信区: Military
标 题: AP通稿来了,老将果然造谣
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Apr 21 13:19:01 2011, 美东)
By JOE McDONALD
AP Business Writer
SHANGHAI (AP) - Police clamped down Thursday on a protest by hundreds of
truck drivers upset over rising fees and fuel prices in China's busiest port
city, the latest display of public resentment over surging inflation.
The security move comes after truckers blockaded a dock in Pudong district
Wednesday in eastern Sha... 阅读全帖 |
|
l*******u
发帖数: 1288 | 30 Geithner: Inevitable That China Will Appreciate The Yuan
Accelerating inflation will force China to continue to appreciate the yuan,
and if Beijing continues at its current pace of currency rise against the
dollar, the move will be "huge," U.S. Treasury Secretary said Thursday.
Taking into account the inflation rate in China and the U.S., the yuan is
continuing to rise compared to the dollar more than the rate Beijing is
allowing the yuan to appreciate nominally.
"The risk for them if they slow ... 阅读全帖 |
|
b***y
发帖数: 14281 | 31 No. The search include his early works up to 1978. Here is the same list
sorted by year.
1) The Influence of Gravitation on the Vacuum State.
By Li-Zhi Fang.
Acta Phys. Sinica 27 ( 1978) 181-18.
2) THE STRUCTURE AND STABILITY OF THE ABNORMAL NEUTRON STAR.
By Li-Zhi Fang, Qin-Yue Qu, Zhen-Ru Wang, Tan Lu, Liao-Fu Luo.
Sci.Sin.22:187-198,1979.
3) Some Recent Developments in Astrophysics. (Talk).
By Li-Zhi Fang, A. Qadir, R. Ruffini.
In *Nathiagali 1980, Proceedings, Physics and Contemporary Needs... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********g
发帖数: 30882 | 32 美元的国际储备货币地位还能维系多久？ (2013-10-13 20:52:13)
葡萄牙、西班牙、荷兰、法国、英国、美国各自货币作为国际储备货币的时间
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-13/chinas-official-press-
China's Official Press Agency Calls For New Reserve Currency, And New World
Order
by Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, 13 October 2013
We assume it is a coincidence that on the day in which we demonstrate China'
s relentless appetite for gold, driven by what we and many others believe is
the country's desire to have a call option on a gold-backed reserve
currency wh... 阅读全帖 |
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w*******g
发帖数: 9932 | 33 central bank's job is to print money and maintain inflation target.
The US federal reserve is a semi-office/private organization designed to
coordinate money supplies.
you don't strictly need a fed reserve to do this job but you got to have
something with related functionality.
For example, Hongkong allows several big banks to print currency but they
can only print as much Hongkong dollars as the amount of hard currency they
have. So, Hongkong pegs its currency to US dollar mainly and pretty muc... 阅读全帖 |
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t*******s
发帖数: 492 | 34 There are 2 ways to get out of recession: grow or inflate. Since "grow" is
nearly impossible given the lack of technological advancement in the
foreseeable future. Then inflate. But deliberate inflation will be deemed as
default in slow motion by other countries and investors, that will deal a
fatal blow to US credit. Raising minimal wage will be a very subtle and
sneaky way to increase inflation.
Dude, look up trickle-up. Anyone who believe in trickle-down will keep
trickle-up in mind. It's two... 阅读全帖 |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 35 Takata Puts Worst-Case Airbag Recall Costs at $24 Billion
Yuki Hagiwara, Takako Taniguchi,Bloomberg Tue, Mar 29 10:41 PM PDT .
Takata Corp., the supplier behind the auto industry’s biggest recall
ever, estimated that a comprehensive callback of its airbag inflators would
total about 2.7 trillion yen ($24 billion), according to a person familiar
with the matter. The shares plunged.
The worst-case recall scenario would involve 287.5 million airbag inflators,
said the person, who asked not to be... 阅读全帖 |
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p*****y
发帖数: 529 | 36 "s/he bears the inflation risk of 1 month."
s/he almost effectively removes all inflation risk - when you invest in
floaters, you don't have inflation risk (or strictly speaking, minimal
inflation risk reflecting the fact that you invest at the beginning of the
month for the whole month).
And interest rate parity is only true when fx rate can float freely. You are
almost risk-free in betting up RMB at this moment. And the situation is
actually caused by lacking of mechanism to bet it down (You c... 阅读全帖 |
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 37 I couldn't care less on what central banks are buying because this time they
are simply forced to do so. All central banks want to depress the PM price
so that they can print their worthless fiat money to infinity. The reason
they are buying after 2009 is simply because Fed officially started printing
money, aka QE, on the top of zero-interest-rate policy. This direct
currency depreciation is detrimental to us-dollar-nominated foreign reserve
and especially dangerous to countries with a small fo... 阅读全帖 |
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L*****e
发帖数: 2926 | 38 yes. there is a meeting and news conference at 2PM.
"Short-term will be still low. "
I guess short-term means 15-year fix?
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/09/18/what-to-expect-from-t
By Victoria McGrane and Jon Hilsenrath
The Federal Reserve concludes its policy meeting later today, and it’s a
nail-biter. Fed officials are likely to emphasize they’re moving slowly and
carefully even if they do decide to start pulling back on their signature
bond-buying program, and will also seek to reassure... 阅读全帖 |
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Y********d
发帖数: 1478 | 39
title recession 和 title inflation 本质区别是什么？求解。
我自己体会title inflation不仅在高中，而且在大学，不仅在美国教育，而且在中国
教育，都是非常明显的趋势。
昨天一个本科的小小师弟来我们学校读硕士，找我吃饭聊天。我问他本科最基本的几门
课谁上的，用的什么教材。他一说，惊我一跳。他们大一下用的教材XXX，是当年我们
硕士才用的；据说比较好学的学生直接上YYY，那个可是美国top50的学校博士第一年才
用的。想当年这些书国内还没有正版引进，我们都是啃的一个普罗米修斯似的人物从美
国背回来的书影印的。感概之于，就和他深入聊聊具体的模型和问题，发现小师弟虽然
聪慧，但是理解的水平也和我们当年本科毕业无异。
再说美国，Susan Athey在给本科生申请研究生院的建议里就直接说，在过去的二十年
里，本科申请人的成绩单上，课程的名字是越来越高深，GPA是越来越高，有时都疑问
，本科都学了这么多了学了这么好，还读什么研究生。可最后发现，也就是个title
inflation + grade inflation。所以，她干脆就直接说，Underg... 阅读全帖 |
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s********s
发帖数: 259 | 40 Goldman Cuts GDP View to 2% as Economy Weakens
Faced with the bruising headwinds of high unemployment, weak manufacturing
and an otherwise listless economy, Goldman Sachs has slashed its forecast
for gross domestic product.
The firm cut its second-quarter GDP outlook to 2 percent from 3 percent, a
stunning blow for an economy expected to be well on the path to recovery
following the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009.
From a policy standpoint, Goldman said it does not expect the subpar growth
to ... 阅读全帖 |
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s********i
发帖数: 17328 | 41 我最近一直在看金子的原理，买金子就是赌hyper inflation导致美元crash。理论上美
国印了这么多钱，早该hyper inflation了，从这推出金子under value。但是为啥美国
还没有出现hyper inflation，我看过的讲金子的书上并没有提到。我觉得有两点导致
hyper inflation至今没有出现，1。中国等emerging market的经济发展导致外汇储备
猛涨，这些美元没有进入流通领域。2。derivative的大发展吸纳了大量资金。只有这
两个存钱罐破了，才会导致hyper inflation。搞欧元就是在保证第一点，大家必须且
只能存美元，存啥都不保险（金子增量不够）。但是第一个存钱罐可吸纳的资金越来越
有限第二点也很criticle，derivative就像赌场里的筹码，赌客把钱都换成筹码了，而
且是赌客间对赌，输赢钱还是在赌场里，啥时候赌客要离场了，寻找其他机会，这部分
美元才会进入流通领域。有人说把QE1/2的钱挤出来美国的经济就好了，就不用QE3了，
金子就玩了，其实正好说反了，如果QE的钱真的到了流通领域，马上就会导致hyper... 阅读全帖 |
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l**********y
发帖数: 2050 | 42 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
dongbeiren2 (东北人) 于 (Fri Oct 14 19:17:03 2011, 美东) 提到:
http://www.datanx.org/nxinfo001/ShowArticle.asp?ArticleID=4498
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
ericz (eric) 于 (Fri Oct 14 19:20:12 2011, 美东) 提到:
求宅要
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
YUYN (丫丫) 于 (Fri Oct 14 19:21:00 2011, 美东) 提到:
自己懒，好好读
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
slimcan (独孤九剑) 于 (Fri Oct 14 19:24:54 2011, 美东) 提到:
今天的美国绝对不会是70年代的美国了。第一，利率现在已经是0了。第二，当年bab... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 43 New policy stand - link monetary policy to unemployment rate and inflation
target. This is big!
"In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the
federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this
exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at
least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent,
inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a
half percentage point above the Committe... 阅读全帖 |
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l*****7
发帖数: 2844 | 44 看看这个
2013 Outlook: Lex Parsimoniae
There are known knowns; there are things that we know
There are known unknowns; that is to say there are things that we now know
we don't know"
But there are also unknown unknowns - there are things we do not know we don
't know"
-Donald Rumsfeld, U.S. Secretary of Defense, 2002
The economic and market environment remains as uncertain as ever as we move
into 2013. One does not have to look far to find extreme risks that could
propel us sharply in either directi... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****r
发帖数: 529 | 45 Should You Trust Your Instincts on Gold?
Recent events in San Francisco and at La Guardia Airport made me recall a
terrifying experience years ago. It was my last flight of the year, and I
was headed home for Christmas. The plane was speeding down the runway to
take off, when the pilot suddenly reversed thrust and slammed on the brakes;
the plane shook like I have never experienced before as the pilot aborted
the takeoff. As we stopped mere feet from the end of the runway and caught
our breath, ... 阅读全帖 |
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r********o
发帖数: 1423 | 46 That's my gut feeling after comparing the previous rate and the current rate
. But here is my analysis:
The past decade inflation rate is close to 3%, but from 2008~2010 it's low
due to weak economy. This year the inflation is high due to multiple OEs and
higher labor cost in China.
The past tuition increasing rate is between 7%~8% per year, but recent years
it's skyrocket high due to deep budget cut.
Let's say in average, the annual tuition rate is higher than the inflation
rate about 5%. Your ... 阅读全帖 |
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s*********t
发帖数: 16647 | 47 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
renxiaoyao (逍遥) 于 (Wed Dec 14 19:01:30 2011, 美东) 提到:
用数据说话，大家可以看到从2010年开始，华州的学费点买进价已经严重超过卖出价。而到今年，已经达到史无前例的159％。这表明华州的５２９计划用新钱pay旧钱benefit已经到了临界点，庞式骗局业已到头了。难怪现在开车的时候电台里都是５２９的广告，原来就是为了骗新钱br />
Year Purchase Pay
1999 $35.00 $33.75
2000 $38.00 $35.19
2001 $41.00 $36.42
2002 $42.00 $38.64
2003 $52.00 $45.31
2004 $57.00 $48.63
2005 $61.00 $51.81
2006 $66.00 $55.05
2007 $70.00 $58.80
2008 $74.00 $64.00*
2009 $76.00 $67.20*
2010 $101.00 $76.00
2011 $117.00 $... 阅读全帖 |
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s*****o
发帖数: 557 | 48 首先速度是个问题，其次这类硬壳船需要有排水pump，这个和inflatable不一样，那个
灌满水了也沉不了，第三是重量问题，要有trailer。这类的船在风平浪静的小湖还是
可以的，但是如果是有地方放这类船，就不如买bass boat了，便宜的有bass tracker
，贵的如ranger boats。
我用了一个季节的inflatable，对储存，运输和搬运有一点体会。
1）储存上如果能有地方放，最好是上bass boat，如果没有，需要很小的空间，pota
bote和inflatable都可以，我自己是倾向inflatable，但是pota bote也是不错，其他
的东西都一样，汽油马达，电动马达，电池，油箱，等等，组装的时间也差不多，唯一
的差别是pota bote的高度略高了一点，别的都一样。
2）运输上，看板上有pota bote的都是放到车顶，inflatable可以放到suv后背箱里，
其他的都可以放在里面，空间还是比较省。
3）搬运，这个是个大问题，大多数的inflatable都需要trailer的，100磅以上的占多
数，可是如果需要trailer，又回到前面的话... 阅读全帖 |
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T****M
发帖数: 1913 | 50 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: kithan (Cathay), 信区: Military
标 题: 房价的实际是杠杆
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Dec 2 19:31:10 2009, 美东)
你花30万，买200万的房子
房子如果升15%的话
你就赚了30万
这其实就杠杆，就是期货
从长远来说，一旦买了房子，价格就是死的
你三十年后供的就是现在的价格
就像现在供三十年前的房子，一个月给100块钱就够了
这是因为价格定了，而inflation一路在继续
人类历史就是inflation的历史
只有inflation才有发展
因为人类是贪婪的
只有inflation才能让人感觉到社会在进步
所以inflation贯穿了人类社会的大部分时候
这是稳赚的生意
总而言之，现在买房子，是非常值的 |
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