a*o
发帖数: 25262 | 1 That depends on a lot of factors, not only the inflation rate. Theoretically, in a normal equilibrium market, it's protected against inflation. But there are other factors. If you keep an eye on financial news, not only TIPS yields are negative, the other normal bonds went into negative yields territory during market turmoil before.
First, supply and demand, when demand is high, bond price is higher, then yield is lower. If the demand surpasses supply, (everyone wants to buy TIPS, but the suppl... 阅读全帖 |
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a*o
发帖数: 25262 | 2 No matter what the yield it is now. TIPS principle is adjusted to the
inflation rate. It's not Uncle Sam that determines the inflation rate. it's
one of Fed's purposes to control inflation rate within a reasonable range.
High inflation is bad, but deflation is worse.
They calculate inflation rate by excluding energy and food sectors which
prices are too volatile.
really
/change |
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a*o
发帖数: 25262 | 3 That depends on a lot of factors, not only the inflation rate. Theoretically, in a normal equilibrium market, it's protected against inflation. But there are other factors. If you keep an eye on financial news, not only TIPS yields are negative, the other normal bonds went into negative yields territory during market turmoil before.
First, supply and demand, when demand is high, bond price is higher, then yield is lower. If the demand surpasses supply, (everyone wants to buy TIPS, but the suppl... 阅读全帖 |
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r********0
发帖数: 200 | 4 Seattle
Family Fourth at Lake Union
MON Playfield family activities, noon-8 p.m.; music, food vendors, beer
garden, noon-10 p.m.; fireworks show, 10 p.m., followed by encore
performance by the Dusty 45s; outside food, including coolers, allowed,
subject to search; Gas Works Park, 2101 N. Northlake Way, Seattle; free;
nonperishable food-bank donations requested (206-281-7788 or family4th.org).
Naturalization Ceremony
MON Music by Greenwood Concert Band, 11 a.m.; U.S. Army Color Guard, musical
per... 阅读全帖 |
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i*********5
发帖数: 19210 | 5 http://triathlon.competitor.com/2013/11/gear-tech/5-causes-of-a
Q: I keep getting flat tire after flat tire and I can’t really figure out
why. Is it just bad luck or is there something wrong with my tire?
A: It’s possible that you keep getting punctures from new sharp things
poking through the tire, but that’s unlikely. There’s probably something
wrong with your tire, wheel or the way you are putting a new tube into the
tire. These are the things that could be causing your recurring flats and
h... 阅读全帖 |
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i****n
发帖数: 1283 | 6 前几天在版上众佬群策群力的指点下（-----特别鸣谢威力鲈，给了许多非常宝贵的经
验！！！），俺和LD权衡了各方面的利弊后，脚踏实地，以安全性、经济型、舒适性为
主要出发点，摒弃当下不切实际的想拖大船的念头，将豪华老马升级（降级？）为
Subaru Outback，全四轮驱动，8.7''的Ground clearance，很适合爬冰过雪，过一些
乱石滩啥的也问题不大，就是注意别翻。
接下来的又一件大渔具就是船了，初步决定是能顶在车顶上或充气后塞进后备箱的
Kayak或者Canoe（只准备在静水或者流速很缓的河里使用）。最好是能够把一家三口都
装得进，否则的话就得买两条船了。再最好是船体上能有插竿子的地方。
版上玩船的人虽然没有玩竿子的多，但应该也不少，能否现身讲讲充气船使用起来是否
真的很痛苦（操控性、漏气、充气、放气、清洗、干燥、收藏。。。）？加个小锚能否
解决风的影响？安全性如何？有没有具体哪一款充气/硬壳船推荐或者需要回避购买？
俺在amazon上找了这几款，不知是否有人正好有这其中的某一款：
http://www.amazon.com/Sevylor-Inflatable-Co... 阅读全帖 |
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C*****E
发帖数: 2679 | 7 “Our office has been conducting an investigation as to whether the
footballs used in last Sunday’s AFC Championship Game complied with the
specifications that are set forth in the playing rules. The investigation
began based on information that suggested that the game balls used by the
New England Patriots were not properly inflated to levels required by the
playing rules, specifically Playing Rule 2, Section 1, which requires that
the ball be inflated to between 12.5 and 13.5 pounds per square ... 阅读全帖 |
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m*p
发帖数: 1331 | 8 http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/rickards-china-slow
China's Premier Wen Jiabao has just warned that China's economy is now
facing challenges, including higher-than-desired inflation and an economic
slowdown.
Our guest James Rickards, the author of Currency Wars: The Making Of The
Next Global Crisis, says this slowdown will be significantly worse than most
people think. He believes it will trigger a policy response from the United
States that will likely lead to a third round of "quan... 阅读全帖 |
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L*******t
发帖数: 2385 | 9 看到一篇文章，觉得挺不错的，不知道是不是too old
全文如下。
The new portfolio management view is that the focus of investors should be
on risk-based investment decisions not asset-based decisions. Stop thinking
about what is your exposure to bonds or stocks and think about your exposure
to inflation or economic growth. The assets do not matter. The factor risks
matter.
It is not easy to make this switch and it still requires that you map risks
into asset allocation space, but this focus on factor risks is a strong
advanc... 阅读全帖 |
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C*****D
发帖数: 1299 | 10 看了这文章，对广大专心烤鲍的学子，有无心理打击？
http://dickmorris.rallycongress.com/5420/obamacare-declares-war
OBAMACARE DECLARES WAR ON DOCTORS
The worst fears about Obamacare are now being realized in a decision on
Monday by the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MPAC) established by the
law to supervise $500 billion in Medicare cuts. MPAC, whose decisions have
the force of law, has voted to impose drastic pay cuts on all doctors under
Medicare and, by extension, under Medicaid (which tends to follow suit).... 阅读全帖 |
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C*****D
发帖数: 1299 | 11 看了这文章，对广大专心烤鲍的学子，有无心理打击？
http://dickmorris.rallycongress.com/5420/obamacare-declares-war
OBAMACARE DECLARES WAR ON DOCTORS
The worst fears about Obamacare are now being realized in a decision on
Monday by the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MPAC) established by the
law to supervise $500 billion in Medicare cuts. MPAC, whose decisions have
the force of law, has voted to impose drastic pay cuts on all doctors under
Medicare and, by extension, under Medicaid (which tends to follow suit).... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 12 【 以下文字转载自 Investment 讨论区 】
发信人: GoDotNet (()), 信区: Investment
标 题: 巴菲特午餐采访：高通胀迟早要来
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 25 01:31:45 2009, 美东)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31526815/page/3/
BECKY: When we sat down with you here last year, you said inflation was a
very big worry for you. What do you see today? Do you worry about
inflation or deflation?
BUFFETT: Well, I don't worry about deflation at all. We won't see
deflation in any significant amount in your lifetime, which is more relevant
than my lifetime. ... 阅读全帖 |
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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 13 The four reports are closely related.
(1) Regional Jets Struggle For Traction In China. Aviation Week, Apr 25,
2011.
This report is for subscribers only. It talks about regional jets. But most
important, it mentions airports in China are mostly underutilized. I will go
to a library tonight and make a few quotes available tomorrow.
My point is return on investment (ROI) dimishes over time even under the
best of circumstances. China seems profligate and prodigal to me.
(2) George Magnus, China Ris... 阅读全帖 |
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s********n
发帖数: 26222 | 14 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: smokinggun (硝烟), 信区: Military
标 题: 格林斯潘涉嫌伪造美国的低通货膨胀率数据
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jun 18 00:19:21 2011, 美东)
Williams estimates that current Social Security payments are roughly half of
what they should be if the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the
Consumer Price Index honestly.
Many of the CPI manipulations were masterminded by Alan Greenspan, chairman
of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve from 1987 under President
Reagan to 2006 under President George... 阅读全帖 |
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l*******m
发帖数: 262 | 15 真是胡搅蛮缠啊。
谁说美国没有通货膨胀了？是不是只要美国有Inflation,中国的涨到天上去的
Inflation就合适了呢？这里面是一个简单的量的概念。美国是有Inflation,但是相比
于中国的Inflation,是TM一个等级的吗。 |
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s****i
发帖数: 2993 | 16 No you are wrong. Monetary inflation and price inflation are two separate
thing. All price inflation are not from monetary inflation.
呵呵要不你给科普一下？通货膨胀就是钱多了，钱怎么多的呢？你可以解释钱印多了也
可以有很多方法使通货膨胀没有发生。但是凡事发生了通货膨胀，还没有不是因为钱印
多了的。你可以举出很多印........
★ Sent from iPhone App: iReader Mitbbs 6.88 - iPhone Lite |
|
c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 17 报97-98亚洲金融危机一箭之仇的机会也许真的来了！
China missed its opportunity to stem inflation and may now risk a hard
landing, billionaire investor George Soros said.
The world's second-largest economy is in a "bit of a bubble," Soros, 80,
said today at a conference in Oslo. There are some signs that China is "
losing control," he said.
China today ordered lenders to set aside more cash as reserves after
inflation last month accelerated at the fastest pace in almost three years.
Consumer prices rose an annual 5.5 p... 阅读全帖 |
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s********n
发帖数: 26222 | 18 Williams estimates that current Social Security payments are roughly half of
what they should be if the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the
Consumer Price Index honestly.
Many of the CPI manipulations were masterminded by Alan Greenspan, chairman
of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve from 1987 under President
Reagan to 2006 under President George W. Bush.
Williams points out that one of Greenspan's manipulations of the CPI
involved the consideration that when steak got too ex... 阅读全帖 |
|
s********n
发帖数: 26222 | 19 Williams estimates that current Social Security payments are roughly half of
what they should be if the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the
Consumer Price Index honestly.
Many of the CPI manipulations were masterminded by Alan Greenspan, chairman
of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve from 1987 under President
Reagan to 2006 under President George W. Bush.
Williams points out that one of Greenspan's manipulations of the CPI
involved the consideration that when steak got too ex... 阅读全帖 |
|
l*x
发帖数: 891 | 20 我不是学经济的，对邹恒甫的学术水平不敢妄下结论。下面是我在（http://ideas.repec.org/e/pzo17.html）搜索到有关他的文章：
首先，他是2个出版物的编辑（Editor）：
1. Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF.
2. CEMA Working Papers, China Economics and Management Academy, Central
University of Finance and Economics.
他的文章分“Working Paper”和“Article”两种，我不大清楚这两者的区别。现将他
近5年的文章做个统计。
Working Paper部分：
2012年：共25篇，22篇CEMA，
3篇MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany
2011年：共25篇，24篇CEMA，
1篇MPRA Paper
2010年：共7篇，7篇CEMA
2009... 阅读全帖 |
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t**********8
发帖数: 1683 | 21 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: lczlcz (lcz), 信区: USANews
标 题: 欧元区失业率达到创纪录的12.1%
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed May 1 16:20:01 2013, 美东)
Governments across the eurozone have again been left counting the human cost
of the financial crisis after news that unemployment in the currency bloc
reached a record high, driven by soaring youth joblessness.
Eurozone unemployment rose to 12.1% for March, an all-time high, according
to Eurostat, the statistics office of the European Union. In the wider EU
area of 27 coun... 阅读全帖 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 22 美国familiy中位数也就是5，6万。医生中位数要到20以上。5倍的差距。
提供发达国最差的服务。
美国医疗吸血能力仅次于墙街。
但是，墙街全世界吸血。 医疗可就只吸国内的血。
还有就是保险公司和医院医生狼狈为奸。
The richest year was 2015, when 70 health care CEOs collectively made $2
billion. That was an average of about $28.5 million per CEO and a median of
about $17.3 million per CEO. The median household income in 2015 was $56,515
, which the average health care CEO made in less than a day.2017年7月24日
he sky-high pay of health care CEOs
The CEOs of 70 of the largest U.S. health care companies c... 阅读全帖 |
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b*********3
发帖数: 1709 | 23 THERE IS NO SINGLE SOLLUTION TO THE PROBLEM!!
1. With the current deficits, a way bigger effort needs to be made to cut
spending. DRASTICALLY!
The current hiring stop is a good beginning and has cut thousands of
government jobs but it's to slow and not enough.
2. The social system needs to be cut. More incentives for workers, a drastic
cut to generational unemployed. This is happening already but needs to be
stepped up.
3. THE DEBT PROBLEM: Yes, American can't cut spending fast enough to get rid... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 24 By Steve McCann
Gasoline has exceeded or approached $5.00 per gallon in some parts of the
United States long before the normal peak travel season has begun. Already
the politicians, headline writers, and some cable and talk show pundits are
pointing to the usual suspects. But they have avoided or are unaware of
where the fault actually lies.
One of the foundational tenets of economics is what is known as the law of
supply and demand. Normally whenever a product or commodity is in short
supply... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 25 Do we really have a revenue problem?
Share
638
POSTED AT 9:25 AM ON JULY 7, 2011 BY ED MORRISSEY
Over the last couple of days, we’ve had a good debate at Hot Air over the
nature of our fiscal crisis between Jazz Shaw, and J. E. Dyer, and me. At
least we all recognize that we have a fiscal crisis; some members of
Congress and “intellectual authorities” (with interesting if unreported
conflicts of interest) still act as though nothing at all is wrong. My
friend Jazz wrote yesterday that we ha... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 26 Fed Pulls Trigger, to Buy Mortgages in Effort to Lower Rates
Published: Thursday, 13 Sep 2012 | 3:35 PM ET
The Federal Reserve fulfilled expectations of more stimulus for the
faltering economy, taking aim now at driving down mortgage rates until an
improvement in unemployment that the central bank says will be a problem for
several years.
The Fed said it will buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities per month
in an attempt to foster a nascent recovery in the real estate market.
The p... 阅读全帖 |
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d*****s
发帖数: 5610 | 27 我都懒的说了，叫inflation的人都是神经病，确实应该出门看医生，看是不是天天做
梦里面有inflation。从2008年开始，无数的人做梦喊inflation，到目前为止，哪有
inflation？ CPI指数每年就2-3%，Fed还在担心deflation。
怎么天下就一帮不懂装懂的人那？都被经济数据打脸4年多了，还不懂装懂。 |
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b*******h
发帖数: 2585 | 28 同意你说的。反正我感觉这里人指望什么SPENDING CUT很难。从卡特里根起两党谁CUT
SPENDING了。我感觉不要说福利开支，就是军事开支，黑8也不希望减，毕竟是他的钱。
现在情况比什么时候都难。
inflation伤的还是经济生活上依赖美国的普通老百姓， 这是事实。
日本西德台湾战后都经历过CRAZY INFLATION， 什么时候伤到大资本家了。
但是老百姓现在已经没有什么办法避免。硬着陆更坏。INFLATION总比丢了工作好。
现实的可能，是接着印钱，让通货膨胀变相消减福利。
我觉得对保守派比较现实的作法，是争取福利不被INFLATION ADJUSTED。 我一点不仇恨
吃福利的，老实说也不觉得个人吃得多，只是吃的人太多了。但是吃福利的旱涝保收，
工作做小生意的朝不保夕，收入下降甚至丢工作， 也不公平。
， |
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g***y
发帖数: 1268 | 29 为什么要算？ 每个人都可以用自己的方式感受inflation. 需要政府告诉所有人
inflation是多少本身就是犯贱。
现在的game无非是用一个人为扭曲的index来justify 各种central planned price
control, 比如postage, interest rate, medicare. 如果没有central planning, 根
本不需要cpi.
如果非要算，最重要的是消除这种不看investment只看consumption的做法。
fed最大的骗局就是inflate investment, but not inflate consumption. 希望大家看
到401k上涨，房价上涨，而walmart货架上的货物不涨，房租不涨。这样给大家创造
wealth的感受.
如果仔细想一想，房价上涨但是房租不涨，说明买房的投资收益比太差，买房变成亏本
买卖，应该驱使大家从买房变成租房。这时买房唯一赚钱的方法就是希望另一个傻子以
更高价格买你的房子。这样房地产就从正常的business变成ponzi scheme.
所以要是我算我会把所有invest... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 30 Governments across the eurozone have again been left counting the human cost
of the financial crisis after news that unemployment in the currency bloc
reached a record high, driven by soaring youth joblessness.
Eurozone unemployment rose to 12.1% for March, an all-time high, according
to Eurostat, the statistics office of the European Union. In the wider EU
area of 27 countries, unemployment stood at 10.9%, as the rate increased in
all but eight countries compared with a year earlier.
Economists... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 31 U.S. Economic Growth Slows To a Crawl in First Quarter
Frigid Weather, Weak Exports Curtail Activity
WASHINGTON—The U.S. economy nearly stalled in the first quarter as weakness
overseas hurt exports and frigid weather curtailed business investment.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced
across the economy, grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.1% in the
first quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That matched the
second-weakest quarterly r... 阅读全帖 |
|
s********n
发帖数: 26222 | 32 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: smokinggun (硝烟), 信区: Military
标 题: 格林斯潘涉嫌伪造美国的低通货膨胀率数据
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jun 18 00:19:21 2011, 美东)
Williams estimates that current Social Security payments are roughly half of
what they should be if the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the
Consumer Price Index honestly.
Many of the CPI manipulations were masterminded by Alan Greenspan, chairman
of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve from 1987 under President
Reagan to 2006 under President George... 阅读全帖 |
|
L***q
发帖数: 38 | 33 Volvo 一直是汽车行业安全的先锋，而且始终以安全作为企业之本，不断研发和创新，
不断有新的安全设计加入到新的产品，所以在汽车安全性能上没有另外一家汽车厂能出
其右的。除了前面说的以外，volvo还发明了ABS, Safety belts in rear seat，Rear-
facing child seat and childproof locks，Energy-absorbent bumpers。
Milestones in 80 years of Volvo safety
1944 Safety cage
1944 Laminated windscreen
1959 Three-point safety belts in front seats
1960 Padded dashboard
1964 Prototype of first rear-facing child seat
1966 Dual-circuit braking system
1966 Crumple zones
1967 Safet... 阅读全帖 |
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M*********t
发帖数: 260 | 34 找到了下面这个答案。
“recommend 32 to 35 psi”
“Do not inflate your tires to the pressure listed on the tire itself. That
number is the maximum pressure the tire can hold”
*****************************************************************
http://ask.cars.com/2007/05/how_do_i_find_t.html
Having the correct tire pressure is extremely important for getting good gas
mileage and the most life out of your tires. Your car has a specific tire
pressure that will give the best gas mileage, handling and tire life for
... 阅读全帖 |
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b****n
发帖数: 3343 | 35 You are risking damaging your tire and wheel. You can either inflate the
tire at gas station or buy Air Compressor/Tire Inflator at Wal-Mart or
Target for about $10. Connect the tire inflator to 12v socket in your car,
you can inflate your tire whenever you want. It's very handy especially when
you travel.
When you are at store, buy a tire pressure gauge so you can measure tire pressure yourself. |
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t**********3
发帖数: 12623 | 36 Indirect TPMS do not use physical pressure sensors but measure air pressures
by monitoring individual wheel rotational speeds and other signals
available outside of the tire itself. First generation iTPMS systems utilize
the effect that an under-inflated tire has a slightly smaller diameter (and
hence higher angular velocity) than a correctly inflated one. These
differences are measurable through the wheel speed sensors of ABS/ESC
systems. Second generation iTPMS can also detect simultaneous und... 阅读全帖 |
|
e**n
发帖数: 5876 | 37 你Y除了整天在网上散布谣言还会干什么?
看看你东家ford edge的手册上怎么说的, 门上的就是最佳值, "Failure to follow
the tire
pressure recommendations can cause uneven treadwear patterns and
adversely affect the way your vehicle handles"
"Always inflate your tires to the Ford recommended inflation pressure
even if it is less than the maximum inflation pressure information found
on the tire. The Ford recommended tire inflation pressure is found on
the Safety Compliance Certification Label (affixed to either the door
hinge pillar, door-lat... 阅读全帖 |
|
m**c
发帖数: 2103 | 38 鸭梨士还是赶快去修你的雅力士吧。
Toyota Motor Engineering & Manufacturing (Toyota) is recalling certain model
year 2014 FJ Cruiser vehicles manufactured August 7, 2013, to August 20,
2013. In the affected vehicles, the intermediate steering shaft which
connects the steering wheel and the steering gear box may have an inadequate
weld. If the intermediate steering shaft weld fails, there would be a loss
of steering control, increasing the risk of a vehicle crash. Toyota will
notify owners, and dealers will replac... 阅读全帖 |
|
G***G
发帖数: 16778 | 39 is a tire inflator useful and economical?
The cheapest price for a tire infaltor is around $40.
But if you inflat your time $1 each time each year, $40 can let you inflat
for 40 years.
please give you some advice whether it is worth to buy a tire inflator and
put it in your trunk. |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 40 Toyota recalls another 600,000 cars to replace defective Takata air bags
Toyota is recalling 601,000 more vehicles in the U.S. to replace defective
and potentially deadly Takata air bag inflators.
The company says the recall covers the Toyota Corolla and Matrix, Scion xB,
Lexus IS250 and 350, and the Lexus IS-F from 2009, 2010 and 2013. Also
covered are the 2010 and 2013 Toyota 4-Runner, Lexus IS250C and 350C and
Lexus GX460, as well as the 2009 and 2010 Toyota Yaris and Lexus ES350, and
the 201... 阅读全帖 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 41 It is not. If you are not rich, does not buy those nonsense bonds. Another
note, inflation is the only way to get out this current mess on toxic assets
, so Fed wants to inflate your money. Watch out inflation expectation
carefully. Buy high yield treasury at those high inflation eviroment. It may
be a once in a life opportunity. So be patient. |
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 42 To be fair, there is still no meaningful methods for Chinese citizens to
hedge against inflation, so they have to throw money at the house, which is
a tangible asset.
The US likely will not have inflation for a while, but it is interesting to
see in the coming years how the rest of the world can keep inflation under
control. The real hope of Chinese house slaves is that inflation will lesson
their debt burden faster than their kids grow up.
30 |
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s*******d
发帖数: 126 | 43 This is an important point, is inflation relative or absolute? My
understanding is that for the US to see high inflation, it has to be
inflation w.r.t. other currencies. But it well could be that the inflation
has to take place w.r.t. certain commodities, such as rice or gold. That
said, a commodity is not a commodity if it is not traded in some currencies,
and therefore in all currencies (minus RMB, which is an entirely different
story, since it is not freely traded on the open market). Ain't w |
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v****o
发帖数: 978 | 44 shangstud (某某某), 信区: Investment
标 题: Re: 通货膨胀到来的时间点
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 4 07:28:43 2010, 美东)
This is an important point, is inflation relative or absolute? My
understanding is that for the US to see high inflation, it has to be
inflation w.r.t. other currencies. But it well could be that the inflation
has to take place w.r.t. certain commodities, such as rice or gold. That
said, a commodity is not a commodity if it is not traded in some currencies,
and therefore in all currencies (minus RM |
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b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 45 Who's the person define Gold is inflation protected?
Even though it does protect inflation, speculation has already taken that
into account for many many years. Believe it or not, you won't see any
inflation protection when inflation really comes. Most commodity price is
purely determined by speculation.
it
not
dollar
% |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 46 Put the current rate into a historic perspective is not a good way to
compare the seriousness of the bond market. I agree the current rate is
lower (4%) than the historic norm 5.48% for 10 year treasury bonds. But you
have to remember that growth rate and more importantly inflation rate are
very high in 70-80-90s. Inflation was close to or above 10% in 80s. We have
very low growth rate and low inflation and possible deflation environment.
So the spread between the rate and inflation is actually |
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s********n
发帖数: 4535 | 47 因为在计算里就是假设没有inflation，那么也不需要增加401k cap，将来的tax
bracket也不变（变的话也可以从最后的计算结果从查到适合的那项）
所以从这个计算里，结论是如果没有inflation, 6%可能是平衡点，如果考虑inflation
，把inflation rate加上去作为平衡点有什么问题么？ |
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S******1
发帖数: 1831 | 48 "首先我们现在还处于美国房市很多年的一个低谷"，这个实在有待考证，我觉得我们是
处在美国房市将维持很多年的低谷的开始。
租金确实比房价回暖太多了，Rental property貌似国内国外都是个麻烦事，如果交给
management公司管，nobody will take good care of your money as you do，但是自
己管又太费事了。潜在风险比较大，运气很重要，不好好管理，房子的折旧要占租金很
大一部分。而且对于已经lose home的这部分人，I don't think they will care to
screw up a few more landlords.
过去的一个DECADE 是BOND 的牛市， 在未来的几年， 恐怕很难再指望BOND 每年将近
10%的收益了。
内，都很难说是很好的 INFLATION HEDGE。(参考资料： STOCKS FOR THE LONG RUN)不
过， 因为拥有STCOK 也是拥有对上司公司拥有的一部分HARD ASSET的CLAIM， 长期看
， STOCK是比BOND 更好的 INFLATION ... 阅读全帖 |
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h****h
发帖数: 1168 | 49 bond is the reverse of inflation.
so bond do not hedge inflation.
stock neither.
tips will hedge inflation.
过去的一个DECADE 是BOND 的牛市， 在未来的几年， 恐怕很难再指望BOND 每年将近
10%的收益了。
内，都很难说是很好的 INFLATION HEDGE。(参考资料： STOCKS FOR THE LONG RUN)不
过， 因为拥有STCOK 也是拥有对上司公司拥有的一部分HARD ASSET的CLAIM， 长期看
， STOCK是比BOND 更好的 IN
购买 RENTAL PROPERTY 出租。首先我们现在还处于美国房市很多年的一个低谷，房子
的按揭贷款利率也仍然相对较低。 其次， 统计资料， 很多美国人失去自己的HOUSE
以后， 转为租房居住， 因此
%的首付。这笔钱和一些必要的TRANSACTION FEE是你需要付出的头期投资。 然后除去
每月需要付的按揭以外，作为房东还需要一些预计为一些必要的维修买单。 另外最大
的风险是遇到糟糕的房客... 阅读全帖 |
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Q***u
发帖数: 433 | 50 Yes. But you'll have to take inflation into consideration. If you buy some
long-term treasuries today, which has pretty low returns and gives you--just
as an example--3% annual return, then when the inflation becomes higher
than 3% (pretty normal thing when the economy is good), you will in effect
lose money in treasury. Also, I'm assuming you're buying treasuries mutual
funds, then their prices can go down, too, especially when the Feds start to
increase the interest rate, which means you can p... 阅读全帖 |
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