M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 1
.........................................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: XOM AS OF 20111109 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111109 was 77.3200
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BULLISH
Short-Term Price Potential is UP: 0.7641 ( 1.00%)
Short-Term Price Target: 78.0841
At Price Target, profit is 9.8823 on $1000 investment. (+0.99%)
Close out >= half of your long position at about 78.0841... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 2
.........................................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: XOM AS OF 20111109 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111109 was 77.3200
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BULLISH
Short-Term Price Potential is UP: 0.7641 ( 1.00%)
Short-Term Price Target: 78.0841
At Price Target, profit is 9.8823 on $1000 investment. (+0.99%)
Close out >= half of your long position at about 78.0841... 阅读全帖 |
|
a**********2
发帖数: 355 | 3 微信公众平台 USOPTIONS
Stocks in Asia were mixed Thursday as markets appear to be treading water
ahead of today's ECB meeting statement and tomorrow's US March Payrolls
report - two important events for gauging the trajectory of growth and
policy in the developed world. Stocks in Japan continue to enjoy a modest
rebound on the back of a steadily weakening yen (now ￥104.0/$). In Europe
this morning, stocks have barely budged and across asset classes we can also
see more of a desire to wait than engage ... 阅读全帖 |
|
D*****t
发帖数: 558 | 4 Yes, a 30 yr mortgage at 4.5% with 20% down payment is a very good (cheap)
leverage. But that's about the only leverage I am willing to take.
You have clearly stated the great risk associated with leveraged investing
-- everyone should know this: "What burns the leveraged investors is when
they need to post collateral (e.g., meet margin calls) at inopportune times
(e.g. option expires), and when they can’t, they need to liquidate their
positions at fire-sale prices, or can't roll over position... 阅读全帖 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 5 4月13日Direxion出了个消息，停止JNUG creation。原话是这么说的：
Direxion announced today thateffective immediately, daily creation orders in
the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares leveraged
exchange traded fund(Ticker: JNUG) are temporarily suspended until further
notice. The suspensionis due to the limited availability of certain
investments or financialinstruments used to provide requisite exposure to
the MVIS Global Junior GoldMiners Index. Redemption orders for the Fund
will not be affected... 阅读全帖 |
|
o******l
发帖数: 35 | 6 说这么多没啥用，到现在你还没有flip过你的position，等你flip过几十次之后，看你
的gain/leverage和market return相比再说。
在NQ2270时说想加仓但13000拿三个合同已经够多不敢加，就是考虑可能的回档会不会
破了我的overnight maintenance）。然后你就能知道你用这个大leverage能赚多少。
不敢抓住不卖。我敢抓住是因为我很清楚市场要向哪里走。我的把握至少有95%。我
beat市场的地方不在于大leverage，而在于我对市场方向的把握比市场上其他人高一大
截。这才敢利用大leverage 长抓不放。
）。在有大赢利在手情况下，不take profit，而且在
一天最高点回档了40点。没有正确的判断，早在这一段时间take profit走人了.外行回
头看，大leverage而已，easy.岂不知其间每天，每小时，甚至每分钟，都需要做出正
确判断，才能hold到今天的地步)
我敢抓大leverage，是因为我能在市场变化中做出正确的应对，让大leverage帮助我而
不是hurt我。各位只继续关注我的模拟，就能看到我如何应... 阅读全帖 |
|
l***n
发帖数: 812 | 7 不好意思，刚刚看到您的回复。
其实REIT是一个不容易投资的板块，大有your bet is as good as mine的意思，原因
呢主要是，
1.作为个人投资者很难衡量REIT投资经理的水平，机构投资者还有机会和REIT的管理层
面谈。投资经理的经验，已经公司管理REIT的能力是很重要的。90%的taxable income
必须发出去，发少了就会造成tax penalties.
2.适用于个人和机构：REIT的投资组合风险评估很困难，10-K/Q上最多告诉你一个大概
，也就是60%是Gov agency backed residential，20% non-gov back residential, 10
% commercial，光看这些只能知道个大概，具体的风险不容易在这个portfolio
allocation中看出来。
3. leverage: leverage的成本，leverage的程度对盈利和风险都有很大影响，但是至
少我很难找到这样的数据。
但是投资REIT，也有些数据可以作为考量依据：
1, operating expense：这个数据反映了公司的运营效率，... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 8
...................
抱歉，DNDN, SLF,取不到。
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: SNE AS OF 20111107 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111107 was 17.9400
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BULLISH
Short-Term Price Potential is UP: 0.2570 ( 1.40%)
Short-Term Price Target: 18.1970
At Price Target, profit is 14.3255 on $1000 investment. (+1.43%)
Close out >= half of your long position at about 18.1970
The... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 9
...................
抱歉，DNDN, SLF,取不到。
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: SNE AS OF 20111107 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111107 was 17.9400
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BULLISH
Short-Term Price Potential is UP: 0.2570 ( 1.40%)
Short-Term Price Target: 18.1970
At Price Target, profit is 14.3255 on $1000 investment. (+1.43%)
Close out >= half of your long position at about 18.1970
The... 阅读全帖 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 10 4月13日Direxion出了个消息，停止JNUG creation。原话是这么说的：
Direxion announced today thateffective immediately, daily creation orders in
the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares leveraged
exchange traded fund(Ticker: JNUG) are temporarily suspended until further
notice. The suspensionis due to the limited availability of certain
investments or financialinstruments used to provide requisite exposure to
the MVIS Global Junior GoldMiners Index. Redemption orders for the Fund
will not be affected... 阅读全帖 |
|
r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 11 Please do not be extremists, it hurts your health :)
Make no mistake - a 30-yr fixed mortgage at 4.5% is a very good leverage!
I believe the idea stated in the above book is great (although controversial
) for young middle class families.
To understand that, we need to first understand what makes leverage risky.
It's actually not due to the leveraged product itself, because most
leveraged investors are fully aware of the risk they are taking (take
calculated risks).
What burns the leveraged in... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 12
.............................
多数股票是在被打压的情况。
i.e. Bear Raid
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: BKS AS OF 20111122 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111122 was 17.9000
STOCK RATING: ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -0.5348 (-3.00%)
Short-Term Price Target: 17.3652
At Price Target, profit is 29.8771 on $1000 investment. (+2.99%)
Close out >= half of your short pos... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 13
.............................
多数股票是在被打压的情况。
i.e. Bear Raid
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: BKS AS OF 20111122 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111122 was 17.9000
STOCK RATING: ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -0.5348 (-3.00%)
Short-Term Price Target: 17.3652
At Price Target, profit is 29.8771 on $1000 investment. (+2.99%)
Close out >= half of your short pos... 阅读全帖 |
|
C*******r
发帖数: 10345 | 14 这是要把投机客全部歪炮的节奏了
UWTI Market Cap Continues to Grow
The world saw oil prices decline in 2014 and early 2015 on the heels of
record-level well productivity, advances in extraction techniques and a dip
in global demand for crude. Combine this with a relatively stronger dollar,
and American consumers have received a huge break at the pump. Commodity
investors haven't been as ecstatic; crude prices declined nearly 60% over
the course of one year. In spite of this, one exchange-traded note (ETN)
contin... 阅读全帖 |
|
m*z
发帖数: 2356 | 15 Dow Jones Industrial Average EFT List
Dow Diamonds ETF (DIA)
2X↓ProShares UltraShort Dow 30 Fund (DXD)
2X ProShares Ultra Dow 30 Fund (DDM)
S&P 500 EFT List
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
2X↓ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 Fund (SDS)
2X ProShares Ultra S&P 500 Fund (SSO)
iShares S&P 500 Index Fund (IVV)
↓ProShares Short S&P 500 Fund (SH)
NASDAQ 100 EFT List
NASDAQ 100 Trust Shares ETF (QQQQ)
2X↓ProShares UltraShort QQQ Fund (QID)
2X ProSh... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 16 雷曼兄弟破产时，风险与资产比是31：1，而今天德国主要银行的风险与资产比是32：1
，这些银行目前持有大量希腊债务
Sovereign Debt Crisis Won't End Until Global Financial Collapse
In the past, there certainly have been governments that have gotten into
trouble with debt, but what we are experiencing now is the first truly
global sovereign debt crisis. There has never been a time in recorded
history when virtually all of the governments of the world were drowning in
debt all at the same time. This sovereign debt crisis is never going to end
until there ... 阅读全帖 |
|
g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 17 Compelling Mexico to Pay for the Wall
Introduction: The provision of the Patriot Act, Section 326 - the "know your
customer" provision, compelling financial institutions to demand identity
documents before opening accounts or conducting financial transactions is a
fundamental element of the outline below. That section authorized the
executive branch to issue detailed regulations on the subject, found at 31
CFR 130.120-121. It's an easy decision for Mexico: make a one-time payment
of $5-10 billio... 阅读全帖 |
|
e*********e
发帖数: 2013 | 18 mm你的问题是无解的。你要老公对你关爱和尊重。但是他不给，你怎么说他也不给，还
拿你们的学历差别说事。你去上
学、去工作，不是为了钱，是为了得到老公的认可和尊重，让他不能想欺负你就欺负你
，想踩你就踩你。你在家里和丈夫吵
架，到bbs和其他人吵架对得到丈夫的爱一点关系也没有。不是你大力主张大专家庭主
妇和博士生单薪丈夫应该平等你们就
能平等的。
我说的那个leverage理论的意思是，leverage什么时候需要？对抗丑恶的时候需要。比
如有人拆你家房子，到网上发文章
基本没有用的，哭死也没人管。如果你爸是政协委员，就没人去拆你的房子了。如果你
走夜路，遇到强盗，和他讲道理是没
有用的，你要么会武功要么有武器。完美世界不存在。leverage是在不完美世界中保护
自己的武器。
一个家庭在彼此深深相爱，互相理解支持的情况下谁也不需要leverage。leverage什么
时候需要？有你老公这样对你的时
候需要！你去读个学位，他没法再说你是大专生我是博士生，我为什么听你的？你出去
工作，就不用再感叹难道工作的比做
家务的高贵？你朋友多，受欢迎，觉得你好的男人比觉得你老公好的女人还要多，他就... 阅读全帖 |
|
j***b
发帖数: 5901 | 19 谈option变色的人都是不懂 derivative 和leverage的区别。derivative没什么可怕的
。可怕的是leverage。你可以完全不用derivative就上leverage（margin，3x etf），
同样也可以上derivative但是不用leverage。
我经常买卖option。但是因为不用leverage，也就是说买卖的option都能用cash cover
，根本就没什么可怕的。 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 20 注意：
卖空时，开始的价位要保守。
必须预先留下大笔现金，这非常必要。
这样才能在预测的 Short Squeeze 高峰附近加码。
由于有冲动的散户今天会进来购买，
墙街必然不会放弃把他们吃了后再跌。
墙街还会拉高价位，高峰出货，再做空。
所以开头应该观察，等向上趋线破时才卖空。
向上趋线 ＝ Uptrend Line。
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: GOOG AS OF 20111130 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111130 was 599.3900
STOCK RATING: BEARISH
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN:-19.5546 (-3.30%)
Short-Term Price Target: 579.8354
At Price... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 21 注意：
卖空时，开始的价位要保守。
必须预先留下大笔现金，这非常必要。
这样才能在预测的 Short Squeeze 高峰附近加码。
由于有冲动的散户今天会进来购买，
墙街必然不会放弃把他们吃了后再跌。
墙街还会拉高价位，高峰出货，再做空。
所以开头应该观察，等向上趋线破时才卖空。
向上趋线 ＝ Uptrend Line。
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: GOOG AS OF 20111130 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111130 was 599.3900
STOCK RATING: BEARISH
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN:-19.5546 (-3.30%)
Short-Term Price Target: 579.8354
At Price... 阅读全帖 |
|
a********t
发帖数: 4508 | 22 首先说说什么是泡沫。一个东西的价值升高，甚至翻倍，并不意味着就是有泡沫。泡沫
的产生源于leverage。借贷高到一定程度，利润变得对市场行情非常敏感的时候，就像
泡沫的膜一样越来越薄，一旦出现市场波动，泡沫就会破裂。
所以说看泡沫要看leverage。
美国房地产08年崩溃，归根到底就是老百姓借贷严重超标，收入根本不能支持贷款以及
拥有房产的各种成本。
中国的情况不一样。买房要40%-50%首付。买房的人很多又都属于集体供楼。银行在这
方面不是有充足保护吗？
并非如此。银行日子并不好过。通货膨胀高的情况下，借款人的比贷款的银行要占便宜
。3年前收入￥3000，3年后由于通货膨胀等原因，收入变成￥5000，相当于国家印钱给
个人来还贷，银行苦在心头。国家也了解这个情况，于是要求银行严格按照40%首付来
贷款。归根结底是政府为了安抚/保护银行的和稀泥手段。
但是银行的风险又远远不止这些。
中国房地产的leverage，和美国不同，不体现在最终的消费者身上，而是体现在房地产
开发商身上。房地产开发商目前属于超借贷经营。首先是体现在土地出让金和拆迁费上
。每一个房地产项目前期规划的时候，都有... 阅读全帖 |
|
B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 23 我现在就开个专题讲讲这些。我的目的，是帮助大家从理论上认识到这些多倍ETF的一
些问题，也是为了在实际操作上发现更好的收益/风险比。如果你以为我是让你用很高
的Leverage去赌博，追求100倍的收益，那是你误解了。我希望版上的同学们都学会一
些长期稳定，而又低风险的盈利方法。
我这里的一些讨论，如果你没有数学基础无法理解，就请不要无理取闹。当然理性的讨
论是必要的，也有助于大家理解我的这些分析。我这里的讨论以TZA为例子，但这些分
析也同样适于期它很多多倍ETF，如FAS/FAZ/TNA/TZA/TQQQ/SQQQ/AGQ/ZSL/......
第一讲：一个似乎不可能的例子
这几天我有这样一个断言：“就是保持全仓做空TZA。这个TZA四年-99%，你保持全仓做
空，理论上几何式增长，就是100倍”。
当然这是一个理想化的说法。风险控制，可操作性和费用等，在这个理论例子里当然没
有考虑。很多人不理解的是，这个几何增长方式。
做Long的很简单。你的账户Y，一直全仓做多X。X每涨一个小比例，Y就增涨同一比例。
所以：dY/Y = dX/X ==> Y ~ X，就是线性关系。
... 阅读全帖 |
|
B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 24 我现在就开个专题讲讲这些。我的目的，是帮助大家从理论上认识到这些多倍ETF的一
些问题，也是为了在实际操作上发现更好的收益/风险比。如果你以为我是让你用很高
的Leverage去赌博，追求100倍的收益，那是你误解了。我希望版上的同学们都学会一
些长期稳定，而又低风险的盈利方法。
我这里的一些讨论，如果你没有数学基础无法理解，就请不要无理取闹。当然理性的讨
论是必要的，也有助于大家理解我的这些分析。我这里的讨论以TZA为例子，但这些分
析也同样适于期它很多多倍ETF，如FAS/FAZ/TNA/TZA/TQQQ/SQQQ/AGQ/ZSL/......
第一讲：一个似乎不可能的例子
这几天我有这样一个断言：“就是保持全仓做空TZA。这个TZA四年-99%，你保持全仓做
空，理论上几何式增长，就是100倍”。
当然这是一个理想化的说法。风险控制，可操作性和费用等，在这个理论例子里当然没
有考虑。很多人不理解的是，这个几何增长方式。
做Long的很简单。你的账户Y，一直全仓做多X。X每涨一个小比例，Y就增涨同一比例。
所以：dY/Y = dX/X ==> Y ~ X，就是线性关系。
... 阅读全帖 |
|
C*******r
发帖数: 10345 | 25 半年两次10：1并股，太牛逼了。
Why the UWTI Did a Reverse Split
By Nathan Buehler | January 12, 2016
On Sept. 10, 2015, VelocityShares 3x Long Crude Oil ETN (NYSEARCA: UWTI)
performed its first reverse split using the closing indicative value from
Sept. 9, 2015. This was necessary due to the low value per share after
months of crude oil declines and the expenses that come along with a highly
leveraged fund.
What UWTI Tracks
UWTI is an exchange-traded note (ETN) that tracks a subset of the S&P
Goldman Sachs Co... 阅读全帖 |
|
N****p
发帖数: 1691 | 26 "我没有看到老巴用到了什么大的leverage的效果"
看你比较的起点了 从2000年高点算起 QQQ算上全部分红 17年里涨了40% 平均每年2.5%
BRK/A 涨了300%，平均每年20%
老巴用的是安全的leverage 之前赚钱主要靠保险公司可以免费从policy holder借
leverage 这些年主要靠deferred tax liability 免费从政府借
散户赢面最大的玩法 卖options 本质也是靠leverage
直接Dollar Cost Average 买SPXL 或者XIV 也是靠leverage |
|
h****e
发帖数: 2153 | 27 leverage是把双刃剑，09年上leverage没有问题，现在上leverage很难说
leverage是投机不是投资。看好一个公司，买入股票，远远比用leverage好得多。至于
说啥spxl，svxy的都是马后炮，也没意义。
5% |
|
G****e
发帖数: 11198 | 28 这篇分析太透彻了：
DaveHiersekorn DECEMBER 09, 2014 — 09:08 PM
So, Edelman ate Duan's dinner, but Duan ate Edelman's lunch.
Okay, so let's start with the fact that Edelman is a Harvard B-School
professor who teaches in the Negotiations, Organizations and Markets
Division. Negotiations? Hah! That's hilarious because Edelman got absolutely
SCHOOLED in a negotiation by a small town restaurant owner who wasn't even
born here. Double immigrant hah!
At the beginning of the exchange, Edelman had leverage in th... 阅读全帖 |
|
G****e
发帖数: 11198 | 29 要看看这个评论：
a comment from boston.com:
DaveHiersekorn
DECEMBER 09, 2014 — 09:08 PM
So, Edelman ate Duan's dinner, but Duan ate Edelman's lunch.
Okay, so let's start with the fact that Edelman is a Harvard B-School
professor who teaches in the Negotiations, Organizations and Markets
Division. Negotiations? Hah! That's hilarious because Edelman got absolutely
SCHOOLED in a negotiation by a small town restaurant owner who wasn't even
born here. Double immigrant hah!
At the beginning of the exchange, E... 阅读全帖 |
|
y*******y
发帖数: 71 | 30 "My personal opinion is
1. Anti-dilution only works for founders who intend to stay and help growth.
if he plans to leave the company permanently, it will be extremely
difficult for him to implement any anti-dilution mechanism at this early
stage of the company. Who is going to invest in the company if there is one
person out there doing nothing but getting 25% of whatever the value the
company creates?"
Then how on earth can an angel investor protect his/her rights? You are
talking about whe... 阅读全帖 |
|
S*********g
发帖数: 5298 | 31 好的CTA长期的都在1左右。
另外你能上leverage吗？
你要是能上5倍-10倍的leverage，还能有1的sharpe ratio,那也很强了
leverage会引起volatility drag，一上leverage，你这0.4就惨了
更不用说drawdown了，你这个长期买股票要是敢上5被leverage，08年之类的就会被
wipe的很惨 |
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s******r
发帖数: 324 | 32 bank's number are all fake anyway because bank's inherent leverage is very
high. But if you want to calculate approximately, for long only, you can
assume you have 1 leverage, for long short depends on the strategy, for
stock picking long short probably assume 150/50, 2 times leverage, for stat
arb, you can assume 8 times leverage. For option book, you can assume 20
times leverage. |
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g********n
发帖数: 2314 | 33 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
发信人: dadabear (bless you), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: [合集] goldenrain的观点未免偏颇
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Feb 8 16:24:51 2007), 站内
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
MSJ (Mission San Jose) 于 (Tue Feb 6 00:42:38 2007) 提到:
看完他blog的《现在在哪里买房风险小》，我只能笑着摇摇头。在我眼里，这个列表与
其说是“风险小”列表，不如说是“房子难涨地区列表”。试论证一二：
1. 常言道“强者恒强，弱者恒弱”。NYC, SF地区房价高企不是一年两年了，支撑房价
的不是那个affordability的percentage，而是能afford的人口数和房子总数的比例。
这里看百分比是没有多大意义的。只要还有人能买得起还愿意买，即使affordability
只有15%又如何呢？
2. 正如high tech公司的P/E要远大于... 阅读全帖 |
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I******E
发帖数: 229 | 34 我不厚道说一句，用这个做空，也就是买买提股版的水平。就是把整个儿proshare fxp
买下来，才多大的盘子，leverage才多大。
做空大经济体，纯技术角度，一是得有工具，二是得有leverage, 三是得有liquidity,
从来没听说过用股票做空某个经济体的，道理很简单，盘子太小，股票仅仅是链条中
最后的一环或者说做空或者做多的结果而已。 这就是为啥都用外汇，bond等当做工具
，前者leverage大概40多倍，后者30倍左右，IB玩可以更高。
最近的case就是paulson等一帮人, 那时候一没工具，二没leverage, 三没交易的对方
也就没liquidity, 所以才要创造工具，同时拉上一帮垫背的人做交易对方制造
liquidity.
现在国内包括国际上对中国都是没有好的工具，股票就是shit, 小孩子的玩意，forex
上根本没有RMB任何事，NDF盘子太小，自己的股指期货还不够塞牙缝的，中国国债和
commodity更是joke全是自己玩自己的, 这就是为啥每次都是搞搞香港等外围。
要想玩是可以的，但是首先得跟它时间，把盘子搞大，放开地方债，加大金融改革，... 阅读全帖 |
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I******E
发帖数: 229 | 35 我不厚道说一句，用这个做空，也就是买买提股版的水平。就是把整个儿proshare fxp
买下来，才多大的盘子，leverage才多大。
做空大经济体，纯技术角度，一是得有工具，二是得有leverage, 三是得有liquidity,
从来没听说过用股票做空某个经济体的，道理很简单，盘子太小，股票仅仅是链条中
最后的一环或者说做空或者做多的结果而已。 这就是为啥都用外汇，bond等当做工具
，前者leverage大概40多倍，后者30倍左右，IB玩可以更高。
最近的case就是paulson等一帮人, 那时候一没工具，二没leverage, 三没交易的对方
也就没liquidity, 所以才要创造工具，同时拉上一帮垫背的人做交易对方制造
liquidity.
现在国内包括国际上对中国都是没有好的工具，股票就是shit, 小孩子的玩意，forex
上根本没有RMB任何事，NDF盘子太小，自己的股指期货还不够塞牙缝的，中国国债和
commodity更是joke全是自己玩自己的, 这就是为啥每次都是搞搞香港等外围。
要想玩是可以的，但是首先得跟它时间，把盘子搞大，放开地方债，加大金融改革，... 阅读全帖 |
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u****d
发帖数: 2578 | 36 当然这次又不是真的。狼真来的时候，一定是打枪的不要，悄悄地进村。A 股今年夏天
要大涨。
China Failure to Grow With $1 Trillion Is Warning to Li: Economy
By Bloomberg News - May 30, 2013 China’s economy is proving less responsive
to credit, escalating pressure on Premier Li Keqiang to strengthen the role
of private enterprise.
The government’s broadest measure of credit rose 58 percent to a record 6.
16 trillion yuan ($1 trillion) in January-to-March, when gross domestic
product gained 7.7 percent, compared with 8.1 percent a year earlier... 阅读全帖 |
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e*********e
发帖数: 2013 | 37 我觉得其实太过主张男性主导或者女性主导理论的人其实在生活中都主导不了什么。
见过很多成功男人各种尊重女性言论行为，还是有很多女人愿意去为他奉献。很多女人
不管事业多好，回家各种能干，家庭相当美满。
旧秩序早已被打破，不要指望哪个性别因为历史原因去忍让去承担更多义务。到了每个
人身上你在婚姻里有多少话语权全靠自身leverage。即使在三从四德的中国古代谁主谁
仆也是看两家势力的，驸马家里都是公婆丈夫拜媳妇。《金瓶梅》里的蒋竹山，手中无
银，腰上无力，入赘给寡妇李瓶儿，拿着老婆的钱开了个药铺，低声下气讨好寡妇，靠
吃药交公粮，还是挨了老婆不少骂。李瓶儿情愿到财大器粗的西门庆那里当小妾，进了
西门家门马上贤良起来，各种体贴各种妥协。欺软怕硬不看时代，蒋竹山那样的怂人，
就是生在古代男权也帮不了他多少。
没有什么leverage的人反而特别对提高自己地位的理论感兴趣。比如光棍和妻管严多在
军版梦版天天缅怀男权，觉得女性应该听话＋家务全包。已经被丈夫嫌弃的家庭主妇多
在家版梦版宣扬各种避免女性责任义务的言论，好像女人不该工作男人就该独立养家，
此外男人还要包一半家务。其实回到现实该被异性鄙视被... 阅读全帖 |
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V**3
发帖数: 12756 | 38 trump 说的很清楚， 他是一个相信leverage的人
当初也许是仅仅当个leverage
如果RNC不逼迫，他反而真不一定去搞第三党
现在RNC步步紧逼，就逼他放弃leverage ， 以Trump的smartass ，他能不问一句为啥
？
不就是为了下面开始下黑手么。 他们越这样逼， Trump月不可能放弃leverage
闹到最后一掰两散，反正要是那样的话共和党绝对输定 |
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r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 39 Here is a simple example to show why leveraged ETFs are bad for the long
term investors:
S&P 500 index starting price is $100, a two times long ETF price is also $
100.
Day 1: the index is down 10%, index price will be $90; the leveraged ETF
price will be $100*(1-20%) = $80.
Day 2: the index is up 10%, index price will be $90*(1+10%) = $99; the
leveraged ETF price will be $80*(1+20%) = $96.
In effect, the index is down 1% after 2 days; the two times leveraged ETF is
down 4% (not the assumed 2%)!... 阅读全帖 |
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s***n
发帖数: 678 | 40 Leverage means that you borrow money for a larger bet. For example, ERY is 3
x leverage reverse ETF for energy stocks. But leverage typically leads to
long term loss (even if its reference does not lose) and higher fees. There
are many ways to leverage and marginalize.
Five years might be long enough to hold some bonds to mature. |
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u****e
发帖数: 99 | 41 On margins -- who has read the fascinating thread on boglehead by a very
smart guy, PhD from Yale, on his market roller coast experience in 2008-2009
?
He followed two Yale financial professors' theory on "mortgage your career"
in belief that when young, one has more human capital, so taking a modest
risk would be beneficial to long term return. That means, take leverage.
He picked a modest leverage of 2x, and entered market in 2008. In the
following months, he recorded meticulously, PhD style, ... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********s
发帖数: 2136 | 42 By Using False and Incomplete Information, You Will Make Bad Decisions About
Gold and Silver
May 5, 2011 By Patrick A. Heller
Back in January 1980, when the Hunt brothers pushed up the price of silver
to $50, many politically well-connected Wall Street firms were facing
massive losses. Suddenly, the COMEX changed the rules for trading
specifically to punish the Hunts and help these Wall Street firms recoup
some of their losses.
Among the most outrageous rule changes was a prohibition against ne... 阅读全帖 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 43
If people never touch margin or leverage they would not suffer serious
damage. Don't trade call/put/zsl/agp/futures. Those things are capital
busters when you have a correction like the current one.
Gold itself has another easy 500-700% gain from the current level. That
is huge gain already. Silver is like a leverage on gold. Gold & silver
mining shares are another leverage on the metals.
If you just own fully paid positions w/o margin or leverage you can
sit there to collect huge gains already... 阅读全帖 |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 44 (Reuters) - The European Union has agreed that around 100 billion euros is
needed to recapitalise the European banking system, but deep splits remain
before a high-profile summit on Sunday over how to strengthen the euro zone'
s bailout fund.
Sources in Germany's governing coalition said the European leaders' summit
would not reach a decision on increasing the scope of the European Financial
Stability Facility, the key element financial markets were looking for to
combat the crisis.
Failure on t... 阅读全帖 |
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F*P
发帖数: 524 | 45 先来看两则消息：11:25a ET October 23, 2011 (MarketWatch)
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- European Council President Herman Van
Rompuy said Sunday he is confident that European leaders will
reach agreement on Wednesday on a comprehensive package of
measures to tackle the euro-zone debt crisis. Speaking at a
press conference in Brussels after a summit of the 27 European
Union leaders, Van Rompuy said that "good progress" was made
over the weekend on a plan to recapitalize European banks. "The
recapitalization of ... 阅读全帖 |
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e**s
发帖数: 4638 | 46 大侠给总结一下先
23 October 2011
Draft Terms and Conditions
Maximising the lending capacity of the EFSF
The capacity of the extended EFSF can be enlarged without extending the
guarantees underpinning the EFSF. This optimisation would take due account
of the rules of the Treaty.
Within the terms and conditions of the endorsed framework agreement, the
maximization of EFSF efficiency would support the continued market access of
Euro area Member States under pressure and the proper functioning of the
sovere... 阅读全帖 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 47
...............
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: PCLN AS OF 20111107 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111107 was 517.5000
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BEARISH
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN:-15.9779 (-3.10%)
Short-Term Price Target: 501.5221
At Price Target, profit is 30.8752 on $1000 investment. (+3.09%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 501.5221
There is a small chan... 阅读全帖 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 48
............................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: SAM AS OF 20111108 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111108 was 99.7600
STOCK RATING: ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -0.1523 (-0.20%)
Short-Term Price Target: 99.6077
At Price Target, profit is 1.5267 on $1000 investment. (+0.15%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 99.6077
There ... 阅读全帖 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 49
...................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: MRVL AS OF 20111111 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111111 was 14.9200
STOCK RATING: ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -0.2317 (-1.60%)
Short-Term Price Target: 14.6883
At Price Target, profit is 15.5295 on $1000 investment. (+1.55%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 14.6883
There is a sma... 阅读全帖 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 50
..................
提醒：目前ＭＭ对多数股票是打击, i.e. Bear Raid。
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: BTU AS OF 20111122 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111122 was 34.5900
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BULLISH
Short-Term Price Potential is UP: 1.0917 ( 3.20%)
Short-Term Price Target: 35.6817
At Price Target, profit is 31.5611 on $1000 investment. (+3.16%)
Close out >= half of your long position at abou... 阅读全帖 |
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