M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 1
.......................
Don't over-commit, i.e. take too large a position
Wait for short-squeeze peak to average up
Wait for bear raid bottom to average down.
Always keep plenty of cash, remember, price just swings.
short/sell at peaks of swings and buy/cover at their bottoms.
Also, don't be greedy, begin taking profits when prices have
move 1/2 or more of forecast. Use trend lines.
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for larg... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 2
..................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: BRCM AS OF 20111206 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111206 was 30.1000
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BULLISH
Short-Term Price Potential is UP: 0.3150 ( 1.00%)
Short-Term Price Target: 30.4150
At Price Target, profit is 10.4651 on $1000 investment. (+1.05%)
Close out >= half of your long position at about 30.4150
There is a small chan... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 3
......................
VELA 拿不到。
还有更多预测在此：
http://groupspaces.com/StockCue/forum/
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: CYOU, AS OF 20120110 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20120110 was: 21.8000
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1,000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
STOCK RATING: BULLISH
Short-Term Potential is UP 0.7779 ( 3.60%)
Short-Term Price Target: 22.5779
Price Chart Link:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CYOU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&c=
DETAILED TRADING P... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 4
.......................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: HUM AS OF 20111107 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111107 was 87.1400
STOCK RATING: ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -0.8073 (-0.90%)
Short-Term Price Target: 86.3327
At Price Target, profit is 9.2644 on $1000 investment. (+0.93%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 86.3327
There is a ... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 5
.........................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: GOL AS OF 20111107 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111107 was 8.2500
STOCK RATING: ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -0.2735 (-3.30%)
Short-Term Price Target: 7.9765
At Price Target, profit is 33.1515 on $1000 investment. (+3.32%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 7.9765
There is ... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 6 For those curious about them:
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: GOOG AS OF 20111107 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111107 was 608.8000
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BEARISH
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN:-13.9346 (-2.30%)
Short-Term Price Target: 594.8654
At Price Target, profit is 22.8886 on $1000 investment. (+2.29%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 594.8654
There is... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 7
.............................
稍后我会给些价格低的。
CBI：
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: CBI AS OF 20111108 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111108 was 37.7000
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BULLISH
Short-Term Price Potential is UP: 0.0928 ( 0.20%)
Short-Term Price Target: 37.7928
At Price Target, profit is 2.4615 on $1000 investment. (+0.25%)
Close out >= half of your long position at about 37... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 8
.....................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: ANF AS OF 20111109 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111109 was 56.2500
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BULLISH
Short-Term Price Potential is UP: 0.8911 ( 1.60%)
Short-Term Price Target: 57.1411
At Price Target, profit is 15.8418 on $1000 investment. (+1.58%)
Close out >= half of your long position at about 57.1411
There is a small ch... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 9 *** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: PCLN AS OF 20111109 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111109 was 536.5500
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BEARISH
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN:-14.2034 (-2.60%)
Short-Term Price Target: 522.3466
At Price Target, profit is 26.4717 on $1000 investment. (+2.65%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 522.3466
There is a small chance of price reach... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 10 *** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: AMD AS OF 20111109 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111109 was 5.4000
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BULLISH
Short-Term Price Potential is UP: 0.1435 ( 2.70%)
Short-Term Price Target: 5.5435
At Price Target, profit is 26.5741 on $1000 investment. (+2.66%)
Close out >= half of your long position at about 5.5435
There is a small chance of price reaching ... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 11
....................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: ACI AS OF 20111111 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111111 was 16.9600
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BULLISH
Short-Term Price Potential is UP: 0.6701 ( 4.00%)
Short-Term Price Target: 17.6301
At Price Target, profit is 39.5106 on $1000 investment. (+3.95%)
Close out >= half of your long position at about 17.6301
There is a small cha... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 12
..................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: CBI AS OF 20111111 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111111 was 38.8200
STOCK RATING: ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -0.6792 (-1.70%)
Short-Term Price Target: 38.1408
At Price Target, profit is 17.4961 on $1000 investment. (+1.75%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 38.1408
There is a small... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 13
..........................
TODAY'S MARKET IS UNDER WALL STREET BEAR RAID
THEREFORE PAY ATTENTION TO THE BEAR RAID TARGET BELOW
FOR PROPER GUIDANCE, I.E. THE LINE STARTING:
"In case of bear raid, expect the next bottom ....."
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: CMG AS OF 20111118 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111118 was 311.3900
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BULLISH
Short-Term Price Potentia... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 14
－－－－－－－－－－－－－
多数股票是在被打压的情况。
i.e. Bear Raid
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: ISIL AS OF 20111122 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111122 was 10.3300
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BULLISH
Short-Term Price Potential is UP: 0.4524 ( 4.40%)
Short-Term Price Target: 10.7824
At Price Target, profit is 43.7948 on $1000 investment. (+4.38%)
Close out >= half of your long position at about 10.78... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 15
......................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: BRCM AS OF 20111202 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111202 was 29.9900
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BEARISH
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -0.5611 (-1.90%)
Short-Term Price Target: 29.4289
At Price Target, profit is 18.7096 on $1000 investment. (+1.87%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 29.4289
There is a sma... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 16
.......................
Don't over-commit, i.e. take too large a position
Wait for short-squeeze peak to average up
Wait for bear raid bottom to average down.
Always keep plenty of cash, remember, price just swings.
short/sell at peaks of swings and buy/cover at their bottoms.
Also, don't be greedy, begin taking profits when prices have
move 1/2 or more of forecast. Use trend lines.
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for larg... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 17
..................
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: BRCM AS OF 20111206 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111206 was 30.1000
STOCK RATING: MODESTLY BULLISH
Short-Term Price Potential is UP: 0.3150 ( 1.00%)
Short-Term Price Target: 30.4150
At Price Target, profit is 10.4651 on $1000 investment. (+1.05%)
Close out >= half of your long position at about 30.4150
There is a small chan... 阅读全帖 |
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 18
......................
VELA 拿不到。
还有更多预测在此：
http://groupspaces.com/StockCue/forum/
*** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: CYOU, AS OF 20120110 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20120110 was: 21.8000
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1,000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
STOCK RATING: BULLISH
Short-Term Potential is UP 0.7779 ( 3.60%)
Short-Term Price Target: 22.5779
Price Chart Link:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CYOU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&c=
DETAILED TRADING P... 阅读全帖 |
|
d*****d
发帖数: 10658 | 19 JUNCKER SAYS IMPORTANT PROGRESS MADE ON EFSF, EUROGROUP AGREED ON EFSF
LEVERAGE OPTIONS
REGLING: EFSF HAS INCREASED ITS FUNDING FLEXIBILITY, EFSF LEVERAGE IS A `
PROCESS OVER TIME'
REGLING SAYS EFSF TO ENTER SHORT-TERM MARKET IN DECEMBER, CURRENT LENDING
CAPACITY IS 40B
EFSF'S REGLING SAYS EFSF PARTIAL PROTECTION APPRCH TO GIVE 20-30% PROTECTION
EFSF SAYS CAPACITY APPROVED FOR FUND, TO USE CO-INVESTMENT APPROACH
具体内容不详,都是最新的头条,from forex.com |
|
c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 20 bailout的事情我知道。而且bailout只是延續了ESFS的版本，這次峰會的ESM加上ESFS
的fund 總額的上限在brussel的會議是500 billion euro,也就是說比過去一個月大家
知道的440 million euro,只多了60 billion的euro。 hardly any news.
另外歐盟說出錢，並不代表ECB出錢。所以討論的問題是這些bailout誰埋單。這問題沒
達成協議，所有的數字都只是紙上的，無法實行。
峰會沒有說明是ecb出錢，事實上德國到目前為止沒同意ecb印錢bailout。
而美國各國和private investors在ecb fully commit之前不會commit。那就是說500
billion euro要的添加leverage ratio很難達到。
如果沒有leverage, 500 billion euro，如果意大利出事，根本不頂事。
現在重要的問題是德國在什麼情況下才會fully committed? 是不是要等到像2008年那
樣金融市場頻臨崩潰才答應，還是各個peripheral答應並實行德國要的條件，實現第... 阅读全帖 |
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l**********y
发帖数: 2050 | 21 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
dongbeiren2 (东北人) 于 (Fri Oct 14 19:17:03 2011, 美东) 提到:
http://www.datanx.org/nxinfo001/ShowArticle.asp?ArticleID=4498
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
ericz (eric) 于 (Fri Oct 14 19:20:12 2011, 美东) 提到:
求宅要
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
YUYN (丫丫) 于 (Fri Oct 14 19:21:00 2011, 美东) 提到:
自己懒，好好读
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
slimcan (独孤九剑) 于 (Fri Oct 14 19:24:54 2011, 美东) 提到:
今天的美国绝对不会是70年代的美国了。第一，利率现在已经是0了。第二，当年bab... 阅读全帖 |
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p******e
发帖数: 17163 | 22 我玩中长期，leverage不高，margin call倒还不至于。不过输到现在，leverage已经
到了我可容忍范围了。 也没钱加码了，两个礼拜内如果没有像样的下跌，只能砍掉一
部分了。
不说丧气话了，
虽然今天不跌，但我仍相信，暴跌在即！ 我知道我的700/800不是梦！曙色已现！
本周1260/1300，不怀疑！
一曲曲浩荡熊歌
起伏回响 悲壮动心魄
一辈辈英熊好汉
前赴后继热血染花儿
风吹过雨打过 疯牛践踏过
火烧过刀砍过 野猪欺辱过
抚摸着伤痕昂起头
吞咽下屈辱心如火
走过长夜 走过坎坷
走进曙色
1个月内见1200/20
2-3个月内见1040/80
3-6个月内见700/800
爱信不信，信者得救。
我,终将坚持到最后的胜利!
我们一定得胜，正义属于我方，
“我们信仰泰迪”，此语永矢不忘.
免责声明：
以上内容纯属poiuytre个人意见。poiuytre对证券市场的评述和预测等各类信息仅作娱
乐用途，并不构成对任何金融产品的购买、认购、抛售或持有的邀约。投资者据此进行
的金融证券等投资行为所造成盈余或亏损概与poiuytre无关。
Disclaimer... 阅读全帖 |
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k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 23 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
dbmj (大变马甲) 于 (Fri Jan 6 11:23:14 2012, 美东) 提到:
http://blog.renren.com/GetEntry.do?id=795741387&owner=233307405
不知道为什么,决定在2011年结束之前完成我5年以来的第一篇中文写作;这么多年了,从
来没有用中文写过一片文章,希望文笔还没有生疏到无法表达自己经历和故事的地步.
2011年对于我来说是值得纪念的一年,在我生活中发生的事恐怕是很多人这一生都不可
能经历的.个人的财富从1月1号的10万美金到6月19号的接近2000万美金到今天的数字;
个人财富的变更让我学到了很多,对于人生的思考更加深刻了,同时也意识到生命中的变
数..两年前的我还在为我的第一份工作而兴奋不已,华尔街的名头,投资银行的魅力..参
加工作之前对于自己的职位有着那么多的期望;但是在工作两个月的蜜月期度过之后,每
天的生活其实就是在和幻灯片excel做无脑的交流..我至今仍然记得在纽约3点种在等同
事从西海岸发来文件... 阅读全帖 |
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l******2
发帖数: 5522 | 24 我给你出一道题：
有两个贷款， 一个是银行的房贷款， 一共50万， 利息3%。 另一个是民间高利贷，
一共5万，利息30%。你支付的利息都一样，每年1.5万，你会借哪一个？
我会借高利贷， 虽然利息高出10倍， 但是我的杠杆(leverage ratio/debt to equity
ratio)不会高出10倍。只要我有稳定的现金流， 我可以在短期内把债还清。 但是50
万则是长期贷款，你可以保证短期现金流稳定， 但是你无法保证长期现金流稳定(你可
能会失业)。 一旦你的现金流断裂， 那50万的长期贷款能让你见外婆。
记住，昨天的雷曼和今天的希腊都是死在leverage ratio上， 而不是利息上。 |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 25 "Sell to open put" has limited loss potential, and it is the best I like to
do on good value stocks.
For index, i like to sell calls and puts.
For leverage 3x ETFs, I sell uncovered calls only, and let both time/
volatility Decays work for me. I use hedge to limit leverage, and am always
bull-biased. |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 26 http://seekingalpha.com/article/415291-why-zynga-should-be-wort
Zynga's (ZNGA) official announcement last week of the upcoming launch of
Project Z, its own independent gaming platform on Zynga.com, is a true game
changer that fundamentally transforms Zynga's business model into that of a
social network, similar to Facebook (FB) and LinkedIn (LNKD), and should
lead to substantial multiples re-rating and long-term share price
appreciation, far beyond the initial jump witnessed last week. JPMorgan'... 阅读全帖 |
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B****o
发帖数: 1393 | 27 I think the following should be enough...
While the leveraged ETF can fill a need in the day trader’s arsenal or be
utilized for a once in a blue moon trend trade, they are certainly not
suitable investments for an investor with a time horizon any longer than a
week. Due to the decay in share price value that occurs as a result of
daily volatility, both the long and short side of these daily rebalancing
acts decay over time, approaching zero regardless of what happens to the
underlying sector.
... 阅读全帖 |
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B****o
发帖数: 1393 | 28 I believe the leverage comes from options. So all leveraged ETFs are like
options - you should be on the right boat. Jump in and out properly can make
you big money. So it is not for buy and hold.
But a flat market can kill both as the overhead for options remains.
Am I right? |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 29 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-einhorn/fed-interest-rates_
A Jelly Donut is a yummy mid-afternoon energy boost.
Two Jelly Donuts are an indulgent breakfast.
Three Jelly Donuts may induce a tummy ache.
Six Jelly Donuts -- that's an eating disorder.
Twelve Jelly Donuts is fraternity pledge hazing.
My point is that you can have too much of a good thing and overdoses are
destructive. Chairman Bernanke is presently force-feeding us what seems like
the 36th Jelly Donut of easy money and wondering... 阅读全帖 |
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 30 看这几天国债的走势，现在流行的是降低risk, 降低leverage.
gs的季报里也提到它的顾客都在降低leverage. |
|
i*******e
发帖数: 1904 | 31 我承认我经常front run市场，因为我看的主要是一些leading indicator。其实现在的
楼市，车市已经显现出一点resilience了。
我3月的看空也跟欧债问题，一些订单数据的弱化及暖冬的修饰作用有关的。虽然大跌3
，4月没来，但毕竟还是在5月来了。基于此，我不是弱化了我对leading indicator的信心，而是根据
leading indicator在timing上做一定的修正。
另外，Crisis data对春夏季的失业率有丑化的作用，而对秋冬季的失业率有美化的作用。
所以最最最迟到了8月数据也会开始upbeat的。
我推荐大家低价持股打个埋伏。Long比short对timing的要求要低得多，所以大家不用太担心。
最后，我承认当前市场上的leverage在减少。但当QE3，LTRO3来临的时候，funds还是会加leverage和加
仓的。一年的return不能总靠年初的那一点点来撑场面吧，况且年初时不少fund sideline了。 |
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m*******n
发帖数: 307 | 32 2X means leverage, which contains time decay.
Leverage etf is only for short term tracking. |
|
L**J
发帖数: 606 | 33 这个你google leveraged etf time decay自学一下，lz这个idea的point 也就是这里。
leverage |
|
g****8
发帖数: 1580 | 34 因为是leveraged，所以实际上里面有发行商50%的钱，你可以google关于leveraged
ETF的risk，我看到过3x的ETF，跌去1/3就要见外婆了的说法 |
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 35 老巴这话说得像是他的保险公司不用leverage一样，他还就是靠这个敛财的。当然，同
是leverage，风险并不一样。 |
|
f******d
发帖数: 6361 | 36 因为那是钱少，玩的很小心，后来交易会好像改了leverage，最高降到100：1好像后来
又降到50：1，有些米国broker使坏，改道英国设分店，仍维持400：1
leverage |
|
l******2
发帖数: 5522 | 37 Knight， 总共10亿美元的资产， 确买了60亿的股票和option, 这么高的杠杆玩起来很
刺激， 但是死起来就30分钟。巴菲特有据名言， leverage能让你富的很快， 但也能
让你穷起来更快。 所以他老人家情愿重仓保险公司， 也不做银行， 因为保险公司借
钱/做杠杆是不用支付利息的。 巴菲特虽然持有WFC， 但是WFC的leverage在八大银行
里是最低的。
说到土共， 政府的杠杆至少在5000%以上。 苏共解体花了三天的时间，Kight见外婆花
了30分钟， 我预期土共倒台的时间不会超过3秒钟(只要大陆人都敢到街上喊一声“皇
帝并没有穿衣服”)， 独裁政权立刻坍塌！ |
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a********t
发帖数: 4508 | 38 用小钱，赚大钱，一定要上大的leverage。
上了大的leverage早晚会外婆的。（或自己失误外婆，或被人陷害外婆。）
因此用小钱想赚大钱，早晚要外婆的。 |
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W******r
发帖数: 789 | 39 Never hold leveraged ETF overnight.
If you don't know how leveraged ETF works, don't trade it. |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 40
1. Miners are like leverages on gold and could be very profitable.
2. Like leverages, miners has extra risks, political risks to be exact.
3. PET wants as little excitement as possible in gold/silver sector
4. So all gold related investment is rigged. Miner is no exception.
5. Fighting PET is not for faint-hearted so be careful & skillful.
6. In addition to PET, miners have political risks.
7. If miners make a lot money, they could be taxed heavily.
8. Government might even confiscate their min... 阅读全帖 |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 41 I was not saying APA has no chance to go to 95
but the chance that it might go down first before resuming its uptrend
is even greater
Personally, I would put the leverage on the company itself instead
of through wall street by using margin and options. So I prefer smaller
companies who have better leverages on their capitals and oil/gas prices. |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 42 你说的是有很高Leverage的。
我的要求是低leverage，但高回报。 |
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d********1
发帖数: 3828 | 43 任何不考虑市场暴跌，赶上暴跌就麻爪的策略都是靠leverage，而不是靠聪明的投资。
靠leverage beat大盘谁都会。 |
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d********1
发帖数: 3828 | 44 IB现在也不容易short了。好几次想short tmv都不行。记得以前都是想short就能short。
其实tvix short不了可以short vxx call。leverage etf的“decay”其实被神化了。
不leverage的调整仓位（跌买涨卖）也可以实现类似的效果。 |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 45 刚统计了一下全年，从小的不到10K到大的20多万排序
6个月 9个月 全年
----------------------------
+9.6% +14.8% +23.6%
+35.5% +86.9% +94.7% （小账户炒XIN为主）
-7.9% -5.4% -5.3% （上半年煤矿损失很大）
+32.3% +44.5% +47.7% （主要对冲空3x ETF及其靠）
+14.7% +14.3% +29.7%
+9.0% +22.1% +24.5% （401k，一直100%股票基金，但板块轮转）
+10.2% +12.9% +27.1%
----------------------------
+11.7% +17.8% +26.8% （总数）
全年基本上保持在40%到80%净多仓。强调低Leverage，以指数为主，多倍的ETF和期权
仓位必须换算成1倍指数来算Leverage。 |
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d********1
发帖数: 3828 | 46 这种逆势操作的前提是你能hold得住，也就是没有太高的leverage。我当时leverage到
头顶了。 |
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b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 47 靠，over-leverage怎么做的，很容易啊。。。
我leverage这么多，从来不交利息，随时有cash抄底。 |
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c*******o
发帖数: 5387 | 48 【 以下文字转载自 Living 讨论区 】
发信人: challenger (Ray), 信区: Living
标 题: blackstone rushed to buy 16,000 single family homes last year
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 9 09:10:19 2013, 美东)
Blackstone has spent more than $2.5 billion on 16,000 homes to manage as
rentals, from the $13.3 billion fund it raised last year.It is buying in
Atlanta, Chicago, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Northern and Southern California,
Miami, Orlando and Tampa, Florida.
(BN) Blackstone Rushes $2.5 Billion Purchase as Homes Rise: Mort gages
+----... 阅读全帖 |
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b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 49 UVXY不是很容易借到烧。所以捞底的话烧UVXY靠是可能的选择。
leveraged ETR margin requirement也比较高。
也可以加大size买non-leverage的ETF，最后效果可能也差不多。
XIV不错。回头买点。 |
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d********1
发帖数: 3828 | 50 你要是不懂概率就别装懂。4和5分别是两个stochastic differential equation的解，
它们只是决定了分布，而不能确定z是同一个随机变量。这一点从公式6本身就看得出来
。那个公式不可能是对的，如果它是对的，就意味这给定underlying的初始价格和终止
价格，完全不需要中间的价格信息，就可以决定leverage etf的价格。你应该知道这个
是不可能的。否则也别搞leverage etf了。 |
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