m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 1 http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/04/poll-trump-37-cru
According to a survey by Clout Research, Donald Trump holds only a two point
lead over Ted Cruz in Indiana. It’s Trump 37, Cruz 35, and Kasich 16.
I’m not familiar with Clout Research. However, FiveThirtyEight, which
obsesses over pollster reliability, gives good weight to Clout’s Indiana
poll. |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 2 by Ann Coulter4 May 2016
A guy just won the Republican nomination for president by spending no money,
hiring no pollsters, running virtually no TV ads, and just saying what he
truly believed no matter how many times people told him he couldn’t say
that.
I always hoped I’d see this once before I died. It’s like to going to
Mecca, for Americans. Pay attention, because it’s the last time we’re
going to see it in our lifetimes.
For those of you not yet on the Trump Train, I know you don’t want to vo... 阅读全帖 |
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h*******u
发帖数: 15326 | 3 Polls
Election 2016
Video
Writers
More
up next: Trump Exposes Liberal Journalists Disdain for American Voters
now reading: Why Trump Might Win
636 Shares
Why Trump Might Win
AP Photo/Ted S. Warren, file
Why Trump Might Win
633 Shares
By Robert Reich
May 24, 2016
A new Washington Post/ABC News poll released Sunday finds Donald Trump and
Hillary Clinton in a statistical tie, with Trump leading Clinton 46 percent
to 44 percent among registered voters. That’s an 11 percent swing ... 阅读全帖 |
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g****n
发帖数: 7494 | 5 希拉拉今年有要被陪选的打败？
08年仅仅只是哭晕在厕所，今年要哭晕在监狱里了
Schoen |
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f****g
发帖数: 23666 | 6 前几年军版提到16年大选，个个都说老太太躺赢。
结果不要说老床，连自己主党的三德子到现在还没搞定。。。。 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 7 希老太加州危险啊！
民调总是说三德子比希老太更能打败Trump，民主党选民为了打败Trump，可能会投三德
子的票。
再加上她的电邮门班加西等问题，很多人也不敢选她了，不然真的要到监狱里去继续竞
选了。 |
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d*****t
发帖数: 7903 | 8 那个论断要看上下文的语境，如果两党照常规发展必然是女克当选，但出乎意料，女克
自己犯了极其愚蠢的错误，而且今年大选两党都走了极端，已经完全不是以前的意识形
态了。结果天下大乱。我预测Trump大概率赢得大选。 |
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c*******e
发帖数: 5818 | 10 他的小team，小成本，几乎没有成建制的组织，靠马不停蹄的媒体，rally，加上
social 媒体，初选赢下来了，让很多政治大卡惊讶，也佩服他的这种unconventional
竞选。
从现在到 大会前，trump team 要不要 转换这种初选模式是关键的问题。
初选是一个一个州慢慢来，有问题可以调整，ge是一锤子买卖，没法调整。 trump据说
已经hire 了 pollster，因为这是唯一预测战场在哪儿发力的指标。
另一个问题，ge非常烧钱，trump要不要跟 金主们做某种妥协，做了也许 weakening
他反政治elite，腐败体制的 论点。
现在媒体，以很明显，完全导向 hillary，不会助trump一点，钱估计争够了，该办他
们认为的“正事儿”，就是想尽办法打压 gop
和trump。
所以，我估计这是他的team 这段时间主要考虑的问题，该不该调整。估计会是一种
semi 或 chimeric 模式。 |
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i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 11 只有你这80-20的傻逼相信这个NBC搞出来的民调。NBC的民调属于C级民调，连
realclearpolitics都不加入的。
这个民调加了10%以上为未注册为选民的人，都不管他们是从哪里来的。当然对希拉里
有利了。
Ken • an hour ago
It's a self-selected survey sample. Anyone can claim to be anything and take
the survey without regard to accuracy. Read the methodology section:
"Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for
participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling
error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of
er... 阅读全帖 |
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t******r
发帖数: 8600 | 13 绝大部分的pollsters都是极左媒体做的。GOP初选时，他们基本上是看热闹，最多是喝
个倒彩，没必要搞太多猫腻。现在不一样了，现在是Trump直接面对他们，trump是他们
的敌人。他们不光是搞猫腻，他们会大打出手。
他们的polls绝对不可靠。 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 14 Hillary Clinton has a comfortable lead over Donald Trump nationally and in
the battleground states that will be critical in determining the outcome of
the presidential election, a new poll finds.
A Monmouth University survey released Monday shows Clinton with 47 percent
support to Trump's 40 percent among registered voters nationally.
Among likely voters, Clinton’s lead increases to 8 points, 49 percent to 41
percent.
Clinton also leads by 8 points, 47 percent to 39 percent, in the 10
battlegro... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 15 两党候选人都有自己的pollster，如果希拉里真的民调超前，完全用不着媒体赤膊上阵
反川普，也用不着本版左逼赤膊上阵反川普。 |
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j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | 16 British pollster YouGov: "The results are close and it's too early to call
it definitively" |
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发帖数: 1 | 17 又点了一个区，基本持平。
: British pollster YouGov: "The results are close and it's too early to
call
: it definitively"
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m*****u
发帖数: 19562 | 18 那我还有赢2个越南大姑娘的希望
生活太艰难了啊
[在 jerrycasper (Cat) 的大作中提到：]
:British pollster YouGov: "The results are close and it's too early
to call
:it definitively" |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 19 Clinton leads Trump, 47 to 44 percent, in the NBC News/Survey Monkey poll
released Tuesday.
ADVERTISEMENT
Clinton had a 5-point edge over Trump, 48 to 43 percent, in the same poll
last week.
Pollsters also found in the new survey that 82 percent think Clinton’s use
of a private email server while secretary of State was “not appropriate,”
versus 15 percent who say it was.
Fifty-six percent also disagree with FBI Director James Comey’s
recommendation last week that Clinton not face criminal charge... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 20 等RNC召开之后，川普的人气会进一步大增，如果希拉里的民调——不一定是媒体的民
调，党和候选人自己都有pollster的——进一步下滑，那么DNC上可能真的要换人了。
毕竟党的利益高于个人利益嘛。 |
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i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 21 Media and pollster rigged to show she's ahead (no pun to Monica L), but in
actuality, her events are tiny tiny "intimate gatherings".
Reality is, no one attending her events, she even had to cancel one because
of lack of interests. |
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h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 22 他们都有自己的internal pollster |
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l******a
发帖数: 3803 | 23 Judicial Watch Uncovers New Batch of Hillary Clinton Emails
AUGUST 09, 2016
Email Print Text Size
Huma Abedin Emails Show Clinton Foundation Donor Demands on State Department
(Washington DC) – Judicial Watch today released 296 pages of State
Department records, of which 44 email exchanges were not previously turned
over to the State Department, bringing the known total to date to 171 of new
Clinton emails (not part of the 55,000 pages of emails that Clinton turned
over to the State Department).... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 24 好长。从新一轮公布的希拉里电邮可摘出两点。
1. 希拉里说谎。 她没有交出全部电邮。
2. 钱权交易。 克林顿基金会大额捐款，换希拉里的State Department的权。
Band, directs Abedin and Mills to put Lebanese-Nigerian billionaire and
Clinton Foundation donor Gilbert Chagoury in touch with the State Department
’s “substance person” on Lebanon
Clinton campaign adviser and pollster Mark Penn advised Clinton on NATO and
piracy.
Another major Clinton fundraiser, Lana Moresky, also pushed Clinton to hire
someone for a position at State. Clinton directed Abedin to follow up... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******e
发帖数: 5818 | 25 你预测H 赢，和去不去 投票 和 投谁 完全是两个问题 !
如果你觉得最近的poll 很沮丧，根本没必要，现在做 poll 的这些人都有 目的，只有
到了 labor day 之后，poll 才有意义，因为 一些 pollster 需要 credibility，要
不以后 就没人雇他们了。
再一个，今年选举会很drama，结果会让很多人 惊到下巴！ |
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t*****9
发帖数: 10416 | 26 “This is an expansion during the busy homestretch in the campaign,” Conway
told Fox News that “everyone else” on the campaign will remain in place.
Trump announced Wednesday that pollster Kellyanne Conway was promoted to
campaign manager and Stephen Bannon, the co-founder of Breitbart News, was
named campaign chief executive.
Trump said in the statement that Paul Manafort will maintain his current
title and work closely with Conway and Bannon on the campaign moving forward.
2016 Election Headqua... 阅读全帖 |
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t*****9
发帖数: 10416 | 27 “This is an expansion during the busy homestretch in the campaign,” Conway
told Fox News that “everyone else” on the campaign will remain in place.
Trump announced Wednesday that pollster Kellyanne Conway was promoted to
campaign manager and Stephen Bannon, the co-founder of Breitbart News, was
named campaign chief executive.
Trump said in the statement that Paul Manafort will maintain his current
title and work closely with Conway and Bannon on the campaign moving forward.
2016 Election Headqua... 阅读全帖 |
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h****g
发帖数: 2216 | 28 Trump这是要出大招？
我反正是越来越看不懂了。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 29 What a wonderful INSPIRING SPEECH!
胜者所见略同(老毛是否英雄各有看法，称其为胜者则无异议):
在敌强我弱之际，发动群众，动员群众，开展一场声势浩大的人民战争是取胜的必由之
途！
You can go out, you can beat the pollsters, you can beat the commentators,
you can be watching, and you'll do it by doing what we did for Brexit in
Britain.
We had our own people's army of ordinary citizens who went out and delivered
leaflets, who went to meet people where they worked and where they
socialized, who convinced and inspired people to go out if it was the one
and only time in t... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 30 Michael Straw, a senior at Penn State University, returned to campus this
week, put on a crisp blue suit, and walked into a Trump buzzsaw.
The president of the school’s chapter of College Republicans had a sense of
what he was in for. Less than two weeks before, the group had announced in
a Facebook post that they would not endorse Donald Trump after holding an
online vote — a move that sparked outrage, including a call from the
chairman of the Pennsylvania Federation of College Republicans for ... 阅读全帖 |
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A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 32 重要信息都藏在中间：“Trump is doing better among independents in all three
states, pollsters found. He has a 17-point margin over Clinton among those
voters in Ohio”
in |
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x****d
发帖数: 2239 | 33 这是个million dollar question.
今年无数pundits, pollster被Trump吧脸扇的跟猪头一样。
so far, 就我的水晶球看来，50:50.
如果股市十月大跌，trump landslide. |
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c*******e
发帖数: 5818 | 34 不用听他们讲什么，主要看body language，这些所谓的pundit 几乎十个有九个是
beding with H的，他们表面说什么不太重要，但这些人还是有些内部渠道和internal
intelegence的，就是知道或听到些不能放到台面上的内幕。
原来是很放松，嬉笑着，现在很 stiff，serious，uneasy，感觉这东西，要不是上乘
演员，很难掩盖住；还有就是，当有支持trump的pundit说话，很急着抢话，还急着把
话非要说完，主持人说没时间，也不行，一副快要输不起的样子。
总的感觉像当初 trump 初选大赢 SC后，那期的气氛，除了吃惊，还有些不知所措。
因为那时候trump是连赢 NH，NV，到 SC，而且SC 前那期debate 还说了那么些“
outrage”的话，尤其对小bush，SC本身还是 military重州，两个州内senate和high
profile 议员 都反trump，还有很popular的女州长；另外，evangelical 很多很多，
cruz的主打牌，最后让trump 以超过10个点拿下，这些人都惊掉下巴！
再说一点，nbc ch... 阅读全帖 |
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d*2
发帖数: 2053 | 35 http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/06/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-election-2016/index.html
(CNN)Donald Trump is aiming to pull off one of the greatest political
comebacks in history.
The Republican nominee is rebounding from a summer of repeated stumbles that
threatened to undermine his candidacy, underscoring his ability to claw his
way back and stay competitive despite controversies that would sink any
other politician.
Poll: Nine weeks out, a near even race
Trump and Hillary Clinton enter t... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 36 September 9, 2016
The DC Gaslight District
By Peggy Ryan
I turn on the news and want to scream – another poll with Hillary Clinton
in the lead! How? She's all but dropped out of the race, and a new Clinton
scandal breaks every half-hour. So how is she winning?
It makes my head spin. Hillary disappears – her numbers go up. She
mishandles classified information and breaks the law – her numbers go up.
She's nailed for her Clinton Foundation pay-to-play scheme – her numbers go
up. I feel as t... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 37 民主党自己有pollster的，如果他们poll的结果是三得子或者别的人更能战胜川普，那
他们根本就不会让希拉里走到今天。 |
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S******8
发帖数: 24594 | 38 http://www.conradmblack.com/1221/november-8th-predictions
Before outlining my predictions for November 8th, let me first offer this
disclaimer: I am no statistician, do not consult computer algorithms, and
have no experience as a pollster. I am happy to leave all of that to
professionals like Nate Silver. However, my experience as an author of
American history, biographer of two American presidents (who between them,
ran ten times for national office from 1920 to 1972), and as someone who has
cl... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 39 我希望她drop out.
她筹的钱肯定不希望用在别人身上
她的那一班人马，也不会立即全身心投入到别人的竞选中去，换个新人凑齐一班人马都
不是一天两天的事
还有那些认为她从政经历长，适合做总统的人，换了别人未必会拥护
想美国出个女总统的人，如果换了男候选人，有可能就不投了。
民主党内部也有pollster的，经常性的poll，如果换别人比她更有希望，早换了。 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 40 她drop out,对她身体有好处，对川普的胜选也有好处。
理由如下：
她筹的钱肯定不希望用在别人身上，别人也没她那么会筹钱。民主党竞选，靠的就是钱
，没钱就买不到媒体，买不到工作人员，买不到选票。
她的那一班人马，也不会立即全身心投入到别人的竞选中去，换个新人凑齐一班人马都
不是一天两天的事。
还有那些认为她从政经历长，适合做总统的人，换了别人未必会拥护
想美国出个女总统的人，如果换了男候选人，有可能就不投了。
民主党内部也有pollster的，经常性的poll，如果换别人比她更有希望，早换了。
最重要的一点，美国的大选，不仅是大众投票，还有electors，而最终的结果由
electors决定。
有29个州和华盛顿特区的electors是绑定了的，谁得到的popular票数多，谁就得到
elector的票。
但有21个州没有绑定electors，他们可以想投谁就投谁。
这就是索罗斯说的：川普会以landslide的方式赢得popular投票，但最终不会成为总统
，含义就是electors会选希拉里。
如果把希拉里换成别人，electors就未必那么支持了。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 41 换bernie还是不换 是个问题
[在 gemini2012 (双子AB) 的大作中提到：]
:她drop out,对她身体有好处，对川普的胜选也有好处。
:理由如下：
:她筹的钱肯定不希望用在别人身上，别人也没她那么会筹钱。民主党竞选，靠的就是
钱，没钱就买不到媒体，买不到工作人员，买不到选票。
:她的那一班人马，也不会立即全身心投入到别人的竞选中去，换个新人凑齐一班人马
都不是一天两天的事。
:还有那些认为她从政经历长，适合做总统的人，换了别人未必会拥护
:想美国出个女总统的人，如果换了男候选人，有可能就不投了。
:民主党内部也有pollster的，经常性的poll，如果换别人比她更有希望，早换了。
:最重要的一点，美国的大选，不仅是大众投票，还有electors，而最终的结果由
:electors决定。
:有29个州和华盛顿特区的electors是绑定了的，谁得到的popular票数多，谁就得到
:.......... |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 42 Clinton leads Trump by 6 points, 44 to 38 percent, among likely voters in a
Star Tribune Minnesota Poll released Sunday morning.
Her lead was 13 points, 48 to 35 percent, in the spring.
Pollsters found overwhelming support, 58 to 28 percent, for Clinton in the
Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul.
Trump, however, has the edge in suburbs, 41 to 37 percent, and the rural
areas of the state, 44 to 28 percent.
Women favor Clinton and men back Trump, according to the pool, but both
candidates are ... 阅读全帖 |
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k******0
发帖数: 2438 | 43 The media didn’t want him.
The GOP establishment didn’t want him.
The pollsters didn’t want him.
The globalists didn’t want him.
The NeoCons didn’t want him.
The Socialists didn’t want him.
The global power brokers didn’t want him.
媒体不想让他当选。
共和党建制派不想让他当选。
民意调查的人不想让他当选。
全球化主义者不想让他当选。
新保守主义者不想让他当选。
社会主义者不想让他当选。
世界权钱的代理们不想让他当选。 |
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d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 44 en,老太雇的估计又是胡妈给介绍的有30多年选举心理学经验可惜从来都不知道投票箱
长啥样的三哥pollster, 这些小本本来也就在宿舍多打一炮，现在都要出来vote
against her了 |
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l*h
发帖数: 4124 | 45 http://www.wsj.com/articles/if-not-trump-who-will-cure-the-rot-1474668631
If Not Trump, Who Will Cure the Rot?
A Chicago murder wave and New York graft scandal are manifestations of
political decay.
Police investigate the scene where Nykea Aldridge was shot dead in Chicago,
Aug. 26. ENLARGE
Police investigate the scene where Nykea Aldridge was shot dead in Chicago,
Aug. 26. PHOTO: ZUMA PRESS
By HOLMAN W. JENKINS, JR.
Sept. 23, 2016 6:10 p.m. ET
803 COMMENTS
One of the brothers charged in the Aug... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3817 | 46 这三个证据七扯八拉的怎么也会扯到希拉痢的竞选班子上
On Sunday, Trump's campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, cited three pieces of
evidence to support her boss' claim that Clinton was the original "birther."
Here's a closer look at evidence that is dubious at best, fails to tie the
falsehood conclusively to Clinton, and cannot compete with Trump's multiyear
effort to undermine the legitimacy of the nation's first African-American
president.
___
The email
In an interview Sunday with CBS' "Face The Nation," Conway offered as... 阅读全帖 |
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m***y
发帖数: 14763 | 47 现在出的早投数字都是估的。技术上来说，一般州都是封存收到的早投票，直到投票日
前再汇总，在投票日当天或者前一天再数（是哪一天，老汉有点记不清了，也懒得查了
），所以到时候才知道真实的票数。
但是，早投要事先注册再领票的，这些都是公开信息。所以，pollsters都可以打电话
去问，回答率比一般人群还要高一些，因为，很简单嘛，愿意多麻烦注册早投的，一般
参与积极性都要高一些。所以，州政府刚开始给早投寄票，不用等所有人都收到票，民
调就已经统计出两边的得票率了。概率上来说，跟最后的实际票数不会差得太大，比普
投的估计偏差小的多，因为普投的作弊空间太大了，真搞民调的，都不敢把普投的估值
说死。 |
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D****e
发帖数: 2283 | 49 难怪会有那些奇怪的poll出现
: 她自己就是pollster
|
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G**Y
发帖数: 33224 | 50 quotes from 538
“Jake Roth
I loathe trump. He is a racist bigot, but that being said I feel like there
might something wrong with the pollsdva here in florida. Hillary is
supposedly winning the educated vote, but I am a delivery Driver in the
super wealthy areas of orlando and the Trump signs are everywhere there.”
Mike Stanley
I feel the same way about Pennsylvania that you do about Florida. Many
people in PA are saying the same neighborhoods that were littered with Obama
signs in 2008 and 2012... 阅读全帖 |
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