l*****r
发帖数: 2123 | 1 The inverted yield curve has set off alarm bells that a recession may loom
around the corner. Historically, that's been a good bet, and recessions
almost always unleash bear markets for the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
But this yield-curve inversion, which may be short-lived, looks different.
While it raises some concern about the long-term economic outlook, the
recent inverted yield curve actually is welcome in the near term.
"We may actually have seen a rather unique occurrence: the Fed actu... 阅读全帖 |
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F*V
发帖数: 3978 | 2 Recession Generation Opts to Rent Not Buy Houses to Cars
By Caroline Fairchild | Bloomberg – Wed, Aug 8, 2012
The day Michael Anselmo signed a lease on his first apartment in New York
City, he lost his job at Buck Consultants LLC. He spent about 10 months
struggling to pay rent with unemployment benefits. Two years later he's
still hesitant to buy a home or even a road bike.
"Every decision that I have made since I lost my job has been colored by
that insecurity I feel about the future," said An... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 3 By
MORTIMER ZUCKERMAN
In recent months, Americans have heard reports out of Washington and in the
media that the economy is looking up—that recovery from the Great Recession
is gathering steam. If only it were true. The longest and worst recession
since the end of World War II has been marked by the weakest recovery from
any U.S. recession in that same period.
The jobless nature of the recovery is particularly unsettling. In June, the
government's Household Survey reported that since the sta... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 4 Déjà Vu Weather? No, It's a Recession!
New Seasonal Pattern?
Yesterday Fed Governor Stanley Fischer proclaimed U.S. Economy Should
Rebound After ‘Poor’ First Quarter.
“There’s definitely a rebound on the way already, and we’ll see at
what speed it proceeds,” Mr. Fischer said during an interview on CNBC. “
The first quarter was poor. That seems to be a new seasonal pattern. It’s
been that way for about four of the last five years.
Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said Wednesday that ... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 5 The Near- and Longer-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy
Good morning. As always, thanks are due to the Federal Reserve Bank of
Kansas City for organizing this conference. This year's topic, long-term
economic growth, is indeed pertinent--as has so often been the case at this
symposium in past years. In particular, the financial crisis and the
subsequent slow recovery have caused some to question whether the United
States, notwithstanding its long-term record of vigorous economic growth,
might n... 阅读全帖 |
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p********6
发帖数: 994 | 6 link :
http://etfdailynews.com/2012/07/10/19-major-sources-warning-abo
July 10th, 2012
Michael Snyder:
Global leaders have tried just about everything that they can think of, but
the coming global financial catastrophe continues to march steadily toward
us. We have seen “stimulus packages”, quantitative easing, bond buying,
interest rate cuts, emergency economic summits, bailout packages for banks,
bailout packages for entire nations, “Operation Twist”, unprecedented
government intervention in ... 阅读全帖 |
|
y****i
发帖数: 1265 | 7 【 以下文字转载自 Biology 讨论区 】
发信人: yweili (杨威利), 信区: Biology
标 题: 据说哈利波特上nature了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 6 14:13:20 2011, 美东)
发信人: Isaiah (SKIASONARANHR), 信区: Emprise
标 题: 据说哈利波特上nature了
发信站: 水木社区 (Thu Jan 6 09:19:54 2011), 站内
http://blog.renren.com/share/225423167/4622536314
刚看了《哈利波特7上》，无聊的在PubMed里面用"Harry Potter"做关键词搜索文献，
得到32篇文献，居然还有发在Nature上的文章两篇 还有其他牛文若干篇。灰常的欢乐。
附该文章链接： http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16094345
以免大家以为是我胡诌。最近真是闲的蛋疼。
==========================神==作==分==割==线====================... 阅读全帖 |
|
y****i
发帖数: 1265 | 8 发信人: Isaiah (SKIASONARANHR), 信区: Emprise
标 题: 据说哈利波特上nature了
发信站: 水木社区 (Thu Jan 6 09:19:54 2011), 站内
http://blog.renren.com/share/225423167/4622536314
刚看了《哈利波特7上》，无聊的在PubMed里面用"Harry Potter"做关键词搜索文献，
得到32篇文献，居然还有发在Nature上的文章两篇 还有其他牛文若干篇。灰常的欢乐。
附该文章链接： http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16094345
以免大家以为是我胡诌。最近真是闲的蛋疼。
==========================神==作==分==割==线==========================
在下面第一篇nature文章中，在2005年《哈里波特与混血王子》出版后，来自澳大利亚
皇家儿童医院的Graig等人，同样对哈里波特中描述的有超能力的巫师wizards and
witches与麻瓜muggle结合后，后代属性问... 阅读全帖 |
|
p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 9 Barron's Cover | SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2011
Which Way Up?
By VITO J. RACANELLI | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
Stocks were pounded in August, but most market strategists expect them to
rally this fall as the economy expands.
Few expected Hurricane Uncertainty to wallop financial markets last month,
after U.S. stocks had risen 23% from Labor Day 2010 to July. Yet, as worries
intensified in August over the possibility of a second U.S. recession and
worsening debt problems both here and in Europe, the S... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 10 Do we really have a revenue problem?
Share
638
POSTED AT 9:25 AM ON JULY 7, 2011 BY ED MORRISSEY
Over the last couple of days, we’ve had a good debate at Hot Air over the
nature of our fiscal crisis between Jazz Shaw, and J. E. Dyer, and me. At
least we all recognize that we have a fiscal crisis; some members of
Congress and “intellectual authorities” (with interesting if unreported
conflicts of interest) still act as though nothing at all is wrong. My
friend Jazz wrote yesterday that we ha... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 11 By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER, Associated Press
July 2, 2012
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. manufacturing shrank in June for the first time in
nearly three years, adding to signs that economic growth is weakening.
Production declined, and the number of new orders plunged, according to a
monthly report released Monday by the Institute for Supply Management.
The slowdown comes as U.S. employers have scaled back hiring, consumers have
turned more cautious, Europe faces a recession and manufacturing has slowe... 阅读全帖 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 12 Sanders and Trump: How the Political and Media Establishment Got 2016 So
Wrong
http://historynewsnetwork.org/article/162019
Perhaps the biggest story coming out of campaign 2016 is not the rise of
Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, but the fact that the media and political
establishment never saw it coming. And the fact that they never saw it
coming perfectly explains the rise of Sanders and Trump.
And here's why: the economic and social wreckage wrought by the Great
Recession of 2007-2009, which ... 阅读全帖 |
|
p**h
发帖数: 737 | 13 .. I found this joke, or a least I think it is a joke..
Hillary Clinton goes to a gifted-student primary school in New York to talk
about the world. After her talk she offers question time.
One little boy puts up his hand. Hillary asks him what his name is. "Kenneth
.” "And what is your question, Kenneth?"
"I have three questions:
First - whatever happened in Benghazi?
Second - why would you run for President after your husband shamed the
office?
Third –whatever happened to the missing 6 billion... 阅读全帖 |
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Q*****8
发帖数: 369 | 14 No, 昨天还是前天哪里看到说，总统有权利Recess appointment,当然这只是报道分析
，trump在这个时候对塞申斯动作多多，估计希望塞申斯,不辞职也可能硬开除，
congress recession期间总统做出的Recess appointment是不需要confirm的，虽然是
短期的，但能有效延续到2019年初，时间上足够cover这russia investigation了。报
道分析有这么Recess appointment的可能性，背后动机就是找个AG把mueller 给fire掉。
估计大家也有嗅觉了，弄不好国会今年真取消recession，防止trump搞动作。问题是很
难找到替代AG开除mueller，因为替代的AG听从trump开除mueller，肯定被全方位攻击
，因为不得人心，所以NYC former mayor 老朱也不傻，肯定不愿意这个时候接手，接
手后不听从trump指令开除mueller，trump这种人一样翻脸。
我觉得trump在放手一搏了，开除了mueller，某种情况下已经达到了进去弹劾程序的条
件，这样子让国会共和党为难，不支持进... 阅读全帖 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 15 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/janet-yellen-recession-indicator-could-mean-
a-rate-cut-not-a-downturn.html
Former Fed Chair Yellen says bond market could be hinting need for rate cut
— not a recession
HONG KONG — Janet Yellen, the former chair of the Federal Reserve, said
Monday the recent triggering of a recession indicator in the U.S. bond
markets could signal the need for an interest rate cut and not a prolonged
economic downturn.
Stocks tumbled Friday after an inversion of the so-called yie... 阅读全帖 |
|
d*2
发帖数: 2053 | 16 http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2011/0531/Double-dip-in-home-
Home prices fell sharply during the first quarter of 2011, according to the
S&P/Case-Shiller index. The 'double dip' means they dropped below their
Great Recession low point, reached in early 2009.
By Mark Trumbull, Staff writer / May 31, 2011
A widely watched index of home prices has fallen to a level below its
recession low point, an official sign that the US housing market is in a so-
called "double dip" downturn.
Home prices fel... 阅读全帖 |
|
m******e
发帖数: 2515 | 17 美国更牛逼，把全世界人民当傻子。小布什就不提了，单说联邦储备局主席伯南克面对
全球人民说谎从不脸红的记录如下，
1〉2007年美国房屋市场泡沫即将破灭，伯南克说少数地区可能房价较高但不存在全国
性泡沫；
2〉2008年美国房屋市场出现全国性崩溃，经济摇摇欲坠，伯南克说美国经济很
resilient,不会进入recession;
3> 2009年美国经济进入recession，伯南克坚持说没有recession，但相继多次减息，
并陆续推出QE1， QE2。。。
4〉2010年伯南克正式宣布recession结束，但既然从来没有recession，又何来结束？
5〉2010年后到现今，我们感到仍然处在recession,联邦储备局准备要推出QE3救市，尽
管伯南克已宣布recession结束。。。 |
|
p******e
发帖数: 897 | 18 It will cost $15 to ask Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) a question in person during
the August congressional recess.
The House Budget Committee chairman isn’t holding any face-to-face open-to-
the-public town hall meetings during the recess, but like several of his
colleagues he will speak only for residents willing to open their wallets.
Ryan, who took substantial criticism from his southeast Wisconsin
constituents in April after he introduced the Republicans’ budget proposal,
isn’t the only member of ... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 19 Americans’ Incomes Have Dropped 6.7 Percent During the ‘Recovery’
10:03 AM, Nov 1, 2011 • By JEFFREY H. ANDERSON
New evidence suggests there’s a reason why this economic “recovery” hasn
’t felt much like a recovery. Figures from the Census Bureau’s Current
Population Survey, compiled by Sentier Research, show that the “recovery”
has actually been harder on most Americans than the recession from which
they’ve allegedly been recovering.
Depression Great
According to Sentier’s report, the med... 阅读全帖 |
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S*********g
发帖数: 24893 | 20 $26,364
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/20/us-incomes-falling-as-
U.S. Median Annual Wage Falls To $26,364 As Pessimism Reaches 10-Year High
Americans' wages are falling, perhaps a reason why pessimism about their
personal finances is now the lowest it's been in a decade.
The annual median wage fell in 2010 for the second year in a row to $26,364,
a 1.2 percent drop from 2009, and the lowest level since 1999, according to
David Cay Johnston at Reuters.
(A correction has been upended to thi... 阅读全帖 |
|
Q*****8
发帖数: 369 | 21 所以说很难找到替死鬼。人家报道也只是分析理论上有这么一个可行性。但也不是没可
能，trump没啥做不出的，真做出来了，为难的反而是国会共和党。既然理论上有这么
一种可能性，国会国和党也得适当考虑考虑应对这种万一情况。
recess appointment是不需要国会马上通过，有效期可以延续到下一届国会，每两年一
届，2018竞选，2019年1月新session开始。时间上足够了。
wiki link说了，一般来讲，这个confirm只要在2018年底能通过（recess appointment
must be approved by roughly the end of the next calendar year），这个AG就不
需要在2019新session开始时离开。注意写的是the end of next calendar year，那是
2018年底。
recess appointment是专门的一种appointment，不是说在recess期间的提名，然后等
recess过后进入confirmation process。appointment是直接任用，不等同于普通的提
... 阅读全帖 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 22 还是别让老头有recess 任命机会，省得他没事折腾手下高级干部
: 参议院可以通过pro forma sessions的手段来阻止总统make recess
appointment，这
: 在小布什与奥巴马执政时期都出现过。
: Senate won't let Trump make recess appointments
: By Ted Barrett, CNN, Tue July 25, 2017
: http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/25/politics/trump-recess-appointments/
: Washington (CNN) -- Senators are planning to continue procedural moves
to
: prevent the Senate from formally adjourning for recess next month in
order
: to prevent President Donald Trump from ... 阅读全帖 |
|
S*********g
发帖数: 24893 | 23 $26,364
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/20/us-incomes-falling-as-
U.S. Median Annual Wage Falls To $26,364 As Pessimism Reaches 10-Year High
Americans' wages are falling, perhaps a reason why pessimism about their
personal finances is now the lowest it's been in a decade.
The annual median wage fell in 2010 for the second year in a row to $26,364,
a 1.2 percent drop from 2009, and the lowest level since 1999, according to
David Cay Johnston at Reuters.
(A correction has been upended to thi... 阅读全帖 |
|
k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 24 http://business.time.com/2013/05/15/why-this-housing-upturn-loo
This Housing Upturn Looks Like the Real Thing
Ever since the recovery began in 2009, a weak housing market has held back
the U.S. economy. The first rebound in home prices was lackluster and after
only a year was followed by another dip. But the recent upturn in home
prices looks like the real thing. One clear sign of a turning point: In
March, homeownership hit a 17-year low, while the 12-month gain in home
prices was the biggest i... 阅读全帖 |
|
d***a
发帖数: 13752 | 25 今天WSJ的一篇文章，也是这么说。
https://www.wsj.com/articles/many-u-s-financial-officers-think-a-recession-
will-hit-next-year-11544612460
Many U.S. Financial Officers Think a Recession Will Hit Next Year
Almost half of U.S. chief financial officers believe a recession will strike
the U.S. economy by the end of 2019
By Sharon Nunn
Dec. 12, 2018 6:01 a.m. ET
WASHINGTON—Almost half of U.S. chief financial officers believe a recession
will strike the U.S. economy by the end of 2019, with the tight labor
market a... 阅读全帖 |
|
s*******y
发帖数: 26 | 26 分享一下英文论坛对我这个问题的回复。觉得信息量很大，应该对很多人都有用。我自
己是研究/从事教育的。这里有没有对whole child education approach感兴趣的父母
？如果有的话，欢迎跟我站内交流。
Newton很多小学建筑状态比较糟糕，需要施工。这里有个video 可以看到：
https://vimeo.com/58028843
Massachusetts in general is very "whole child" unfriendly with its
monomaniaical focus on testing. It is a very strange environment because the
same progressive parents that want holistic, nurturing, progressive, nature
-based or waldorfy preschools want verifiably assessed and codified "good
schools" when it comes time f... 阅读全帖 |
|
S*********g
发帖数: 24893 | 27 $26,364
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/20/us-incomes-falling-as-
U.S. Median Annual Wage Falls To $26,364 As Pessimism Reaches 10-Year High
Americans' wages are falling, perhaps a reason why pessimism about their
personal finances is now the lowest it's been in a decade.
The annual median wage fell in 2010 for the second year in a row to $26,364,
a 1.2 percent drop from 2009, and the lowest level since 1999, according to
David Cay Johnston at Reuters.
(A correction has been upended to thi... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
S*********g
发帖数: 24893 | 29 $26,364
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/20/us-incomes-falling-as-
U.S. Median Annual Wage Falls To $26,364 As Pessimism Reaches 10-Year High
Americans' wages are falling, perhaps a reason why pessimism about their
personal finances is now the lowest it's been in a decade.
The annual median wage fell in 2010 for the second year in a row to $26,364,
a 1.2 percent drop from 2009, and the lowest level since 1999, according to
David Cay Johnston at Reuters.
(A correction has been upended to thi... 阅读全帖 |
|
b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 30 http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/04/19/cnbc-be
10 best jobs for 2014:
1. Mathematician
Change from ranking on 2013 list: Up 17
Midlevel income: $101,360
Key factors for ranking: work environment, high income and outlook, low
stress
These are the people who figure out if a decision makes sense for a company
or organization, be it digging for oil or building a car. They work in a
variety of sectors, including energy, transportation and IT. "Mathematicians
have historically been th... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 31 December 30, 2011
By Jeffrey Folks
Most economists predict that, under current policies, the nation's
unemployment rate will be close to 9% through the end of 2012, with the
broader measure of unemployment (U-6) running above 16%. GDP growth is
predicted to be sluggish, in the range of 2%. Government will continue to
lay off workers as growth stagnates and tax receipts remain flat. In short,
the economy will remain lousy.
It doesn't have to be this way.
The President, whose fiscal restraint was ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 32 January 27, 2012 by Rodney Graves
He has made a bad situation much worse.
Recovery Doesn’t Feature Typical Snapback in Growth
By Ben Casselman and Josh Mitchell | The Wall Street Journal
The U.S. economy has taken more than two years to claw its way back to
producing the amount of goods and services it did just before the last
recession.
But what about all that “lost” growth? After slumps, growth usually
sprints forward—allowing the economy to not only regain its previous peak
b... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 33 After graduating from Brown University in 2009 with a bachelor’s degree in
comparative literature and completing a Fulbright scholarship in Brazil,
Cassie Owens was left with a few dollars on her stipend and no job in sight.
So, Ms. Owens returned home to her mother in Philadelphia.
“I moved back home pretty much for lack of money and prospects,” she says.
Owens’s cousin, Evon Burton, who also returned home after graduating from
Morehouse College in 2009, adds, “The choice is to go out and be in... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 34 By SUDEEP REDDY and SCOTT THURM
U.S. companies are scaling back investment plans at the fastest pace since
the recession, signaling more trouble for the economic recovery.
U.S. companies are scaling back investment plans at the fastest pace since
the recession, signaling more trouble for the economic recovery. Sudeep
Reddy reports on Markets Hub. Photo: AP.
Half of the nation's 40 biggest publicly traded corporate spenders have
announced plans to curtail capital expenditures this year or next, a... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 35 How did the U.S. reach a 'fiscal cliff' and what does it mean? Here are the
facts.
Posted on November 30, 2012
Summary
The U.S. faces the possibility of another recession — the third in 11 years
— if President Obama and Congress cannot find a way to avoid the so-called
fiscal cliff. The one-two combination of massive tax increases and spending
cuts scheduled to take effect, beginning Jan. 1, would push the
unemployment rate back above 9 percent, according to the Congressional
Budget Office.
Ther... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 36 Supreme Court Narrows President's Recess-Appointment Powers
Justices Rule Obama's Appointments to NLRB During Senate Break in 2012 Were
Invalid
WASHINGTON—The Supreme Court unanimously ruled Thursday that President
Barack Obama exceeded his authority in appointing three National Labor
Relations Board members during a brief Senate break in 2012, holding that
presidents may only exercise their appointment powers during recesses of 10
or more days.
But in a 5-4 split, the court's liberal bloc and s... 阅读全帖 |
|
w********t
发帖数: 12853 | 37 这篇文章对你的图儿们，有不同的解释：
https://thinqopen.wordpress.com/2016/01/13/hmmm-those-charts-look-
cherrypicked/
HMMM… THOSE CHARTS LOOK – CHERRYPICKED
JANUARY 13, 2016 THINQOPEN LEAVE A COMMENT
A meme going around which attempts to illustrate Barrack Obamas Failure
displays various charts that are from the Federal Reserve Banks branch of
Economic Research (FRED the charts are from FRED). The charts claim to
display Student Loans, Food Stamps, Federal Debt, Money Printing, Health
Insurance Costs, Labor F... 阅读全帖 |
|
w********t
发帖数: 12853 | 38 (转载）
What’s the Matter With Connecticut?
By Annie Lowrey
A funny-sad back-and-forth appeared in the pages of the Hartford Courant
last month.
It started when one Christopher Edge wrote into the letters section to say
he had had it and was moving out in a brief tirade entitled “Farewell,
Connecticut.” More positive residents then chimed in with their support for
the Nutmeg State. “Running away is not the solution,” chided one Patricia
Karwoski.
But what problems could Edge possibly be trying to d... 阅读全帖 |
|
Q*****8
发帖数: 369 | 39 当然可以，但你有能量一下子搞掉两个人？搞掉comey时都面对排山倒海的压力。
现在不断羞辱sessions的背后目的估计就是想放手一搏fire mueller,其实版上讨论
sessions怎么怎么，我认为都不对，trump现在在乎的才不是啥law and order,他现在
羞辱sessions的动机是fire mueller,只有先让sessions辞职或者fire sessions，才能
为下一步创造条件。
问题是羞辱sessions好像达不到让sessions辞职的目的，指责sessions已经受到far
right push back，所以fire sessions也是有顾虑的，今天far right媒体攻击trump之
后，trump语气也软了一些。现在大家也嗅觉到trump企图fire mueller的动机，媒体也
大量报道民主党设法阻止trump recess appointment,如果不能recess appointment,他
fire掉sessions没法达到啥目的。fire掉一个估计都难抗住，没法继续fire了，再则你
一直fire下去，也不一定能找到原意帮你... 阅读全帖 |
|
s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 40 Last mild recession only last like half a year, and we are officially in
this greater recession for 1-1/2 years now.
IMHO, last time the market drops too early before the recession because the
bubble was too big (look at the valuation compared to this one) so that you
get a much longer bear market than then recession.
This time things are different. The market respond too mildly and too late
in the 10/2007-09/2008 period. When we are 1-1/2 years within the recession,
if we project the economy to |
|
a***r
发帖数: 146 | 41 Bullish outlook on European and emerging market stocks, as well as
commodities.
By Jurrien Timmer, co-manager of Fidelity Global Strategies Fund, Fidelity
Viewpoints – 12/19/2012
It has been a year of confusion, of tail risks anticipated and averted,
fiscal cliffs, and quantitative easing (QE). It has been a year of a housing
recovery in the United States and a growth recession in China. It has been
a year when the eurozone stared into the abyss. It has been a year of an
against-all-odds rally i... 阅读全帖 |
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G**T
发帖数: 2610 | 42 这样的地方，会有两个高年级的小孩在recess时那么对待你儿子， 还没人管？ 同样的
小孩还敢再犯，而老师竟然会敷衍。。。是课间recess还是lunch recess？ 我们这里
一年级是不可能跟高年级一起recess的。 recess时候有老师或家长volunteer 在场吗
？
Something just does not add up here. |
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f******d
发帖数: 6361 | 43 WASHINGTON (AP) -- For more Americans, being out of work has become a semi-
permanent condition.
Nearly one-third of the unemployed -- nearly 4.5 million people -- have had
no job for a year or more. That's a record high. Many are older workers who
have found it especially hard to find jobs.
And economists say their prospects won't brighten much even after the
economy starts to strengthen and hiring picks up. Even if they can find a
job, it will likely pay far less than their old ones did.
The o... 阅读全帖 |
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d***a
发帖数: 13752 | 44 别激动。说的不是一码事。
https://www.wsj.com/articles/many-u-s-financial-officers-think-a-recession-
will-hit-next-year-11544612460
Many U.S. Financial Officers Think a Recession Will Hit Next Year
Almost half of U.S. chief financial officers believe a recession will strike
the U.S. economy by the end of 2019
WASHINGTON—Almost half of U.S. chief financial officers believe a recession
will strike the U.S. economy by the end of 2019, with the tight labor
market and growing trade tensions driving economic jitt... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****r
发帖数: 1074 | 45 咳，有机会和一个大牛谈了谈，加上自己的野鸡分析，大胆评论一下现在的经济吧：
先说股市吧，不管唱衰，唱旺现在经济基本面的，有一点大家都承认，就是根据历史数
据，股市总是先于经济5，6个月触底，所以在recession的时候，大家都看股市什么时
候狂牛一下（就像现在这样），然后就预言recession还有半年就结束了。
唔，可是巨牛的萨缪尔森说过，股市最擅长预言了，所以成功的预测了六次经济危机中
的10次！ 还记得去年年底的牛市么？那是也是一片欢呼雀跃，说recession要结束了，
从那时算起，到现在4个月了，恐怕没什么人还觉得recession能在两个月内结束吧？
这次的recession要是不能在六个月里over的话，这次的牛市，也不过是又一个死猫蹦
而已，还得大跌一下吧？从技术上讲，这次的小牛不过是道指深度跌破50天均线后的技
术性反弹罢了。
房市也是一样，本来决定房屋价格的最重要指标是失业率。现在失业率不断攀升，上个
月单月就失去了60万工作机会，想在这种形式下抄底，只能自求多福了。
Money Supply也有很大的问题，FED冒天下之大不韪，左手印钱，右手买国债，导致美
元信 |
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C**********y
发帖数: 480 | 46 看这篇文章：
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/09/01/friends-israel
有点长，一句话总结：胡萝卜加大棒，各议员的竞选经费10～15%来自犹太人，不听话
，下次对手会拿到这钱，差额就是20到30%！
This was a daunting challenge. Jews made up less than three per cent of the
American population, concentrated in nine states, and they voted
overwhelmingly Democratic. How could AIPAC, with such a small base, become a
political force in both parties and in every state?
Dine launched a grass-roots campaign, sending young staff members around the
country to search for ... 阅读全帖 |
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t******g
发帖数: 462 | 47 The economy and stimulus
Looking up
THREE months ago Barack Obama was firmly in the dock over news that no net
jobs were created in August. Some gloomy people even saw a double-dip
recession on the way.
America, it turns out, was not on the verge of recession, and it still isn’
t. Subsequent revisions show that 104,000 jobs were in fact created in
August. Later months have also been revised upwards, and in November
payrolls grew by 120,000, or 0.1%. On December 2nd the government also
reported t... 阅读全帖 |
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t******g
发帖数: 462 | 48 The economy and stimulus
Looking up
THREE months ago Barack Obama was firmly in the dock over news that no net
jobs were created in August. Some gloomy people even saw a double-dip
recession on the way.
America, it turns out, was not on the verge of recession, and it still isn’
t. Subsequent revisions show that 104,000 jobs were in fact created in
August. Later months have also been revised upwards, and in November
payrolls grew by 120,000, or 0.1%. On December 2nd the government also
reported t... 阅读全帖 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 49 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: MB80528 (肥猫(Contrarian)[食MM而肥]), 信区: Stock
标 题: Is It 1937 All Over Again?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Aug 16 03:34:03 2011, 美东)
Is It 1937 All Over Again?
Background:
Have global events begun to look and sound too familiar in 2011 to a
previous era in the 1930s? In 1937, economic conditions were surprisingly
similar to those at present. Commodity prices were rising, people worried
about inflation and deficits, and so they acted -- and paid the price. Many
who remember histor... 阅读全帖 |
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J*V
发帖数: 3150 | 50 Recession Left Baby Bust as U.S. Births Lowest Since 1920
By Frank Bass - Nov 30, 2012 12:01 AM ET.
.
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QUEUE
Q
..
Getty Images
The U.S. birth rate in 2011 was 63.2 per 1,000 women of childbearing age,
according to preliminary numbers. That’s down by almost half from a peak of
122.7 in 1957 during the postwar baby boom.
The U.S. birth rate fell to a record low last year, driven by a decline in
the number of babies born to immigrant women, who hav... 阅读全帖 |
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