x***2
发帖数: 946 | 1 我在function里面生成multivariate norm变量时出错。
test<-function(rep,n1,n2,mu1,mu2,x,v1,v2,vx,rho){
...
vx1y<-rho*sqrt(v1*vx)
vx2y<-rho*sqrt(v2*vx)
xy1<-rmvnorm(n=n1,mean=c(mu1,x),sigma=matrix(c(v1,vx1y,vx1y,vx),2,2))
xy2<-rmvnorm(n=n2,mean=c(mu2,x),sigma=matrix(c(v2,vx2y,vx2y,vx),2,2))
在这里就报错，错误信息
Error in rmvnorm(n = n1, mean = c(mu1, x), sigma = matrix(c(v1, vx1y, :
mean and sigma have non-conforming size
如果我改成数字，function就没问题。
# xy1<-rmvnorm(n=n1,mean=c(0,0),sigma=matrix(c(1,0... 阅读全帖 |
|
e*********5
发帖数: 151 | 2 20%*(2-rho^2)?
rho=0应该是40%， rho=+/-1 应该是20% |
|
c*******e
发帖数: 150 | 3 【 以下文字转载自 Statistics 讨论区 】
发信人: cavaliere (Un Baiser S'il Vous Plaît), 信区: Statistics
标 题: Regression中噪音项是一个AR(1)，如何做MLE或者其它Fit？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Sep 15 22:02:42 2014, 美东)
想请教一下版上的各位大牛们，如果
Linear Regression中Noise Term是一个AR(1) process，通常都有什么成熟的算法做
MLE 或者其它方法 fit ？
具体的说，模型可以表示为 Y(t) = X(t) \dot \beta + E(t),
X(t) 和 \beta 都是 K-维的向量，其它都是标量。
t = 1, 2, 3, ..., T 是手头的 sample，
但是和经典的 Linear Regression 不同，E(t) 不是 i.i.d. 的高斯白噪音，可以假定
E(t) 服从一下 model:
E(t) = \rho * E(t-1) + \sigma * Z(t)
\rho 和 \s... 阅读全帖 |
|
F*****t
发帖数: 2580 | 4 假设一个人身高1.75m，体重70公斤，鞋底与水泥地面的摩擦系数为0.6
不考虑力矩，让这个人在地面滑动的力大小为
70*9.8*0.6=411.6N
假设风速为v=100km/h，也就是27.8m/s，这个是10级风的级别
空气密度取rho = 1.2kg/m^3
那么风压=0.5*rho*v^2=0.5*1.2*27.8^2=463Pa
再假设人的平均宽度为0.5m，则人受到的风压=463*1.75*0.5=405N
10级以上大风，人应该就很难顶住 |
|
t********t
发帖数: 1070 | 5 昨天贴了个关于张汤姆证明的帖子，引来几个装逼傻叉的质疑，怀疑老子装逼看不懂，
所以现在我觉得有必要科普一下张汤姆的证明原理。这里强调是原理，不是详细过程，
但这并非是因为我没看懂过程，而是因为张汤姆的文章有56页，要解释清楚每个证明大
概需要两倍的56页。而且，这是个需要大量函数和公式的证明，没有公式将极其难以说
清楚，而本版帖子是没法打公式的。所以，你要是看懂了没有公式的本贴，就知道叔是
如何的牛逼且又是如何的低调，而且也会发现你是多么的牛逼，能看懂张汤姆的素数对
是咋回事。
本贴分两部分，第一部分是给我一样的数论钓丝门外汉看的，第二部分是张汤姆文章导
读。重点是第一部分，如果你看懂了第一部分，那么看第二部分应该象上厕所一样的容
易。而如果你看懂了第二部分，自然会去读张汤姆的原文，那时也就没我什么事了。
不过还是有几个前提条件，一，你得去下载一份张的文章，可以与第二部分对照，原文
网上到处都是。二，如果你想看第二部分或原文，则至少应该对原文page 3 notation
中的概念有所了解，不然会造成写本贴和看本贴的人互骂一声傻逼的严重后果。也就是
你必须对如下概念有所了解，admis... 阅读全帖 |
|
h******1
发帖数: 16295 | 6 【 以下文字转载自 Mathematics 讨论区 】
发信人: hsh (三胡), 信区: Mathematics
标 题: 电工科普：张汤姆素数对证明原理 (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Feb 2 12:23:30 2015, 美东)
发信人: threeheart (氷), 信区: Military
标 题: 电工科普：张汤姆素数对证明原理
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Feb 1 23:37:08 2015, 美东)
昨天贴了个关于张汤姆证明的帖子，引来几个装逼傻叉的质疑，怀疑老子装逼看不懂，
所以现在我觉得有必要科普一下张汤姆的证明原理。这里强调是原理，不是详细过程，
但这并非是因为我没看懂过程，而是因为张汤姆的文章有56页，要解释清楚每个证明大
概需要两倍的56页。而且，这是个需要大量函数和公式的证明，没有公式将极其难以说
清楚，而本版帖子是没法打公式的。所以，你要是看懂了没有公式的本贴，就知道叔是
如何的牛逼且又是如何的低调，而且也会发现你是多么的牛逼，能看懂张汤姆的素数对
是咋回事。
本贴分两部分，第一部分是给我一样的数论钓丝门外汉... 阅读全帖 |
|
w***u
发帖数: 17713 | 7 一个封闭刚性量杯里的气体压强p=h(rho)g吗？ h-高度，rho-密度，g-重力加速度，即
和高度成正比。初中物理题？ |
|
i******4
发帖数: 20643 | 8 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Jobman (剑狼) 于 (Fri Jan 13 08:14:01 2012, 美东) 提到:
我也没见过新蛋，交情也很淡，完全是版务上
但是她做事勤勤恳恳任劳任怨，了解ebiz但是好像也不怎么做ebiz
，做事能够做到公平公正
我私下里跟新蛋说过最进可能没有时间来
而且也跟她说过如果她想当斑竹我支持
钻风呢，也不过是给老邢打工的
老邢呢也是要靠mitbbs赚钱的，风往哪边吹他就往哪边倒
这个跟政客拉选票一样，谁管你以前做的怎么样，民意风向变了照样牺牲你没商量
说白了，这个世界就是利益之间的关系不会变，其他的都在变
给后来的版主提个醒，
这个版上反正总是有事的，因为总是有骗和被骗的人，做生意嘛，正常
你纵容吧会有人说你不理朝政，你删帖维持秩序吧，又会有人说你徇私
发包子时候都积极，一有事就总是那几个跳出来弹劾版主，唯恐天下不乱
还有就是做斑竹呢肯定会跟人结下梁子，再正常不过结梁子以后这些人会随时准备报复
你，人性如此，这也正常
就说这些吧，祝大家新的一年里生意兴隆哈
☆─────────────... 阅读全帖 |
|
i******4
发帖数: 20643 | 9 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
NewEgg (驻驴观花|落英缤纷 落雪缤纷 尘缤纷土缤纷) 于 (Mon Jan 23 00:00:05 2012, 美东) 提到:
看了春晚开始的2012龙舟logo，我突然明白，原来2012，华人都fine，
因为在龙身上稳着呢，大家从出生的那一天，都已经拿到了2012的船票:)
2012，祝愿龙的传人都平安幸福，心想事成
2012，祝愿mitbbs这个海外华人的绿洲欣欣向荣
2012，祝愿ebiz这个众JS腾云驾雾大展身手的地方，也宝光祥瑞，和气生财
2012，让我们从龙年新春大吉包开始，1/id，截止时间1/23/2012 23:59:59 (以bbs系
统时间为准)
__
http://mitbbs.com/article1/WBCenter/12532167_3_0.html
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
FIBA (飞吧) 于 (Mon Jan 23 00:00:23 2012, 美东) 提到:
沙发
☆────────... 阅读全帖 |
|
t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 10 I agree that tracking an index very accurately could be hard. But is it
necessary?
Say, there are two SP500 index funds, denoted as MF1 and MF2.
MF1 has a strong/expensive manager team and tracks SP500 very well, with the
correlation rho^2 at 0.995 (before any fees charged). And it's expense ratio is 0.1%
MF2 has an OK manager team and tracks SP500 fairly good, with the
correlation rho^2 at 0.985 (before any fees charged). It's expense ratio is 0.05%
In long run, will MF1 outperform MF2? |
|
b***i
发帖数: 10018 | 11 有两种职位，Data Engineer和Data Research Engineer。给办H1-b和绿卡。Junior也
欢迎。
有意者请把简历发到t*******[email protected]。谢谢。
Senior Data Engineer at Tapjoy in San Francisco, CA
Sr. Data Engineer
About Us:
Tapjoy is a mobile value exchange platform, driving personalized app
discovery for consumers, customer acquisition and engagement for app and
brand advertisers, and rich monetization for innovative developers. The
Tapjoy network spans over 20,000 apps and 800 million global consumers on
iOS, Android and Windows Phone. ... 阅读全帖 |
|
l**********y
发帖数: 2050 | 12 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
zlion (smilingsky@cathy) 于 (Fri Jan 13 11:05:26 2012, 美东) 提到:
等着发吧， 甭排队了
**---------*----------*----------*----------*----------0----------0*
如果爱一个人，就借钱给他/她玩option
如果恨一个人，就拿钱给他/她玩option
*0---------0----------0----------0----------0----------0----------0*
> 请你一定要爱我
> 实在不行 恨我也成
^ ……
> 敖 敖 敖................................................
> 别介
> 君子动口不动手
> 小人才动手呢
^ ……
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
KeepBuying (雁过留声) 于 (Fri Jan... 阅读全帖 |
|
r******s
发帖数: 925 | 13 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
AprilSummer (但盼守得云开见日月) 于 (Thu Mar 10 21:05:09 2011, 美东) 提到:
今天包子题的问题就是，以下几种常见表格分别是申请什么的？I-130， I-140，I-485
， I-131， I-765, G325A, I-693.
答对的给包子每个人包子5个。不要反复回帖，不要灌水，不
要起混砸场子，违者罚包子5个。光re的没包子，得答对问题。
现在开始！！！！
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
sunfish (fly tying in progress) 于 (Thu Mar 10 21:05:23 2011, 美东) 提到:
Petition for Alien Relative I-130
Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker I-140
Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Stat... 阅读全帖 |
|
c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 14 In the final of a regional level barometer pair
This was the last board, we didn't play very well, only scored
a little bit above average. Both vul, My RHO opened 1S,
I had Sx HKxxx DKxx CAJxxx.
Some aggressive bidders may double, I thought it was MP and we were vul,
if we had no fit, 2 level would be very risky for our side, so I passed.
My LHO bid 3C, which in their method is constructive raise in spade.
To my surprise, my partner jumped to 4H!
My RHO bid 4S, I came in with 5C, showing H fit a |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 15 Looks the best chance is to try squeeze RHO in the black suit -- it's
reasonable to assume LHO has something like 2-5-4-2 shape.
So draw trumps, pitch 1C and 2S in the dummy. And hopefully duck a C to East.
Then on your run of D, East will be squeezed.
If LHO's alert enough to play a C honor, win it, cash the SA, and run the D to
squeeze RHO, hoping him to hold 2 of the 3 C honors. To protect his S holding,
he'll be stripped of one and you can throw him in to lead into your S tenance.
You can no |
|
a*******s
发帖数: 295 | 16 After all the study, you decide to draw trumps, pitch 2S and 1C in dummy,
RHO pitches 3 more diamonds. Then you duck a club to RHO's Q. He gives some
thought to the situation before exiting with a club to dummy's Ace. You
cash the diamond king, all following. now the cards left are:
KJ8 |
|
a*******s
发帖数: 295 | 17 S 8
H AKJ2
D AK762
C 763
YOU
S AK654
H 7
D J10984
C A5
LHO opens 1D, RHO 1H, you join this with 1S, LHO 3H, and finally RHO plays 4H.
you lead spade ace, pd drops the 9, declarer the deuce.
What's your plan of defense? |
|
a*******s
发帖数: 295 | 18 In a team game, all play precision.
1. red vs white. You hold
S KQ1098
H KQ3
D Qxx
C K9
PD RHO YOU LHO
1C* - 1S 3C
3D - ?
* precision, 16+
if you raise 4D and pd rebid 4S, what's your plan next?
2. both vunlerable, You hold
S Q
H AJ109
D 9
C AKQ109xxx
you opens a precision 1C, and the auction went on:
1C - 2D -
3C - 3S -
3NT - 4NT -
?
4NT was natural, I presume. What's your call?
3. you hold
S 87
H A10954
D 763
C QJ5
The auction of opps: (precision)
LHO RHO
1C 1NT
2C* 2S
3N |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 19 Same hand as the lead problem, but from opponents.
You bid to 3N with these hands
J9xx
xx
Axxx
J9x
x
AKQx
KJxx
AKTx
the bidding was 1D-1S-3N.
LHO led the SQ, and continues with S2, you play the 9, RHO's 10 wins. You can
discard a H, no problem. RHO cashes SK, now what?
(for your record, the S was 4-4) |
|
f*****x
发帖数: 545 | 20 You sit south, holding
S: 98X
H: A1087X
D:9XX
C:KX
RHO BID 1S, LHO 2S, RHO 4S.
WHAT DO YOU LEAD? |
|
f*****x
发帖数: 545 | 21 You sit south, holding:
S: AJT87
H: KX
D: AXX
C: KXX
RHO PASSED, YOU 1S, LHO PASSED, PD 2H, RHO 2N, SHOWING TWO MINOR SUIT. what
do you bid?
suppose you reach 6s anyway.
west lead dx, dummy is
S:K9X
H:AJTXXX
D:KXX
C:X
How to play? |
|
b***n
发帖数: 13455 | 22 Bidding: I would bid 3NT, leaving the final decision to my partner, since he
would know about my pts and strength. If he would pass, fine, it shows he's no
support to S. If he would respond, he would have to bid 4NT to begin Blackwood
process.
As of playing, I don't think it's a problem as long as not a weired
distribution (i.e., RHO has no S or/and H), just to keep DK as bridge to cash
H suits.
Round 1. Take lead with DA in hand
Round 2. S10 to K in dummy.
If Q falls from RHO: (unlikely from |
|
f*****x
发帖数: 545 | 23 yes, dealer is rho. you sit in east. not dbl is a very good decision, but a
french player choose dbl, but pd holds
S: XX
H:XXX
D:XX
C:Q109XXX
so after his dbl, lho rdbl. pd runs to 2c, rho dbl, he rdbl, sos, but pd has
no choice but to let it go. 2c rdbl -1, 600 goes away. a definitely bottom【
在 arrowhits (箭笑江湖) 的大作中提到: 】 |
|
f*****x
发帖数: 545 | 24 if LHO has 4d, maybe they can give u some trouble. If he has d aq9x, he will
take ur king with ace, and return a small c. now when u play dj, he should
duck. u let it through, right? then RHO ruff and back with small c. u ruff,
play d, ruff with j, RHO duck. now i think it will down.
east
u
(jo)
it.
大 |
|
l*********r
发帖数: 65 | 25
Playing SQ, if we isolate spade suit, is optimal for 4 tricks.
Assuming KJ654 outside, when RHO holds
K654
J654
K65
K64
K54
K6
K5
J65
J54
J64
J6
J5
J
65
54
64
6
5
4
Playing SQ from hand will get you 4 tricks.
However, I highly suspect the lead is a stiff. Still, playing Ace then small
spade to the hand, trying to "kill the ruff", only gains when RHO holds
specifically Kx(totally 3 cases, let's forget about those too horrible 4-1 or
5-0 breaks).
Therefore, I play SQ from hand. |
|
f*****x
发帖数: 545 | 26 in this case, you can only sqz RHO. So it will be clear by the time you play h
from dummy. If DK didnt appear, then Hk should appear if both kings are in
RHO.. 【 在 xlxie (《※★★★※§三老爷§※★★★※》) 的大作中提到: 】 |
|
x***e
发帖数: 2449 | 27 I don't quite understand.
RHO hold QJxx, how could you have slam?
It is like double dummy....
S: AXXX
H: X
D: XXX
C: AQXXX
Though RHo has QJxx of hearts, both minor kings are on side.
But I dont think bidding slam is the issue here. |
|
f*****x
发帖数: 545 | 28 You must assume at least one minor suit King is on side to make 6H. If DK is o
ff then CK will almost certainly be off as RHO opened. So we have to assume DK
is on.
If DK is on, then we should finesse CQ first to see if we can afford to play s
afely in trump suit.
So the correct play is Dx back to DQ, then Cx to CQ, if it wins, then Hx from
dummy, cover any card played by RHO. If CQ loses to CK, then play H2-2. |
|
t********e
发帖数: 90 | 29 Your RHO may hold:
Qx Jxx A9xxxx Ax or Kx xxx A9xxx Axx
The first is more likely. Either Way DK duck could be winner.
It will be ok for DJ continuation
and it will work when RHO won with DA and played the 3rd D (DK not DT) |
|
c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 30 yes, I ducked and made it, RHO held 5 diamonds to the ace actually.
Our opp didn't duck and went one down. At the table, LHO continued
D and RHO won by ace and thought for a long while then switched to S
which was scary, but sp blocked. |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 31 This is the winning line. The LHO had
xx
JT9xx
QJ9xx
Q
After cashing top C to drop CQ, it is not too hard to go to dummy through S,
unblock S, and take a C finesse. If finesse loses, you'll come to 3S, 3H,
2D, 4C; if it wins, RHO did not cover, you can then set up a C to come to
the same 12 tricks. If RHO covers the CJ, now your entry is screwed up so
cannot set up C any more, but you can win the CK, and work on S, for 4S, 3H,
2D, 3C.
The line of a top chinese youth player is the following: he w |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 32 Non vul vs vul, you hold this lovely collection
K7xx
965x
KJx
Qx
and are 1st to speak. You pass of course. And so did LHO. Pd opened 1C, RHO
passed.
You might belong to the group that suppress the H suit (or was there a H
suit?)in this situation, but let us say, you, like me, are not and bid 1H.
LHO came in with 1S overcall. Pd now doubles for support. RHO asked what it
was and passed. What do you bid now? |
|
b****s
发帖数: 472 | 33 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
wimptb (一失足成千古wimp) 于 (Tue Feb 12 18:07:36 2008) 提到:
Non vul vs vul, you hold this lovely collection
K7xx
965x
KJx
Qx
and are 1st to speak. You pass of course. And so did LHO. Pd opened 1C, RHO
passed.
You might belong to the group that suppress the H suit (or was there a H
suit?)in this situation, but let us say, you, like me, are not and bid 1H.
LHO came in with 1S overcall. Pd now doubles for support. RHO asked what it
was and passed. What do you b |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 34 GNT open district final. Love all, 1st seat and you hold
K9x
Kx
Kx
T9xxxx
This does not meet your criteria for 3C preempt so you passed. So did LHO.
Pd opened 2D, multi (but only weak2 type).
RHO also passed (they play option 2 of the ACBL defense, i.e, x is takeout
for S and 2H is takeout for H), and you bid 2H, pass or correct.
LHO now surprisingly came in with 2S, and pd passed. RHO bid 3H. You have an
easy double. Although undiscussed, this is unmistakenable as pd can take it
as either lead |
|
b****s
发帖数: 472 | 35 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
wimptb (一失足成千古wimp) 于 (Mon Mar 31 14:00:14 2008) 提到:
GNT open district final. Love all, 1st seat and you hold
K9x
Kx
Kx
T9xxxx
This does not meet your criteria for 3C preempt so you passed. So did LHO.
Pd opened 2D, multi (but only weak2 type).
RHO also passed (they play option 2 of the ACBL defense, i.e, x is takeout
for S and 2H is takeout for H), and you bid 2H, pass or correct.
LHO now surprisingly came in with 2S, and pd passed. RHO bid 3H. You h |
|
b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 36 Double then bid NT at minimal level. However, due to space consideration, "
stronger than 1nt" is a relative term. I think if RHO opens 1C or 1D, 1NT
overcall shows 15 to bad 18. If RHO opens 1H/1S, 1NT can be a little heavier
, since the alternative (double then bidding NT) will force our side to 2NT
or higher. |
|
f******e
发帖数: 465 | 37 I kind of agree with you now that showing the strength you had earlier
should not hurt. On the other hand, after pd opened 1s, RHO bid 2s, suppose
you don' t have S support (otherwise the bidding would be easier, I guess),
if you have a minor suit, do you want to bid now? I guess not b/c you don't
even know whether that's your RHO's suit? Also, after pass then X it has to
be for penalty (you don't want to X for take-out when there is only 1 unbid
suit, right?)
PASS |
|
b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 38 In general, it is more important to bid out your own hand. When you have a
good minor suit with length (not 5-card suit headed by 10), it will be much
more likely that RHO has the other minor suit. Bridge is a game of frequency
, in such a case you will want to concentrate on showing your hand rather
than catching RHO competing with a weak suit and penalizing him. You might
occasionally miss a juicy penalty, but you will reach a decent contract most
of the time.
As to pass then double, surely ta... 阅读全帖 |
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b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 39 老龙说得很清楚。不过老龙的英文确实不行，因为只有差到我这个水平上才能理解我在
说什么。
"in such a case you will want to concentrate on showing your hand rather
than catching RHO competing with a weak suit and penalizing him. You might
occasionally miss a juicy penalty, but you will reach a decent contract most
of the time."
我也许应该写成 ...rather than TRYING to catch the unlikely case that RHO
competed with a weak suit and asked for penalty...
如果已知对方的低花套就在我的好套上，当然是惩罚。这点资质我还是有的。。。 |
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l****d
发帖数: 228 | 40 another possible choice:
if RHO has SAx or Kx left.
DA, CA, CK, CQ. hope RHO has doubleton C and ruff the third C. |
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l****d
发帖数: 228 | 41 It may depend on the third round card.
If RHO play a large D, we may try to fool LHO,
otherwise, LHO knows pd does not have DK, we may only hope that RHO makes
mistake (D5 is not so large...) |
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w****b
发帖数: 623 | 42 I see two lines:
1. H to A, DA, DQ (if LHO drops DK, play low D).
2. D to Q, low D.
The first line succeeds if RHO holds DK and <=5 D, or if LHO has stiff DK,
or if HKx or 3-3. So chance = 1 - 70/128*32/64 = 72.6%
The second line succeeds any time RHO holds DK and when <= 6D, or if HK, Kx
drops. So that's 1 - 65/128 * 52/64 = 59.7%.
The choice is obvious.
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l****a
发帖数: 272 | 43
我知道你是得猜, 砸RHO单张大牌, 在这副牌是有可能的.
但是我想问的是啥叫 double finesse
(单套打法, 跟本题无关, 假设RHO 不是单张) |
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p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 44 easy down 2, draw 4 the trumps, play DQ, DT...
down 1, you need a few good things to happen, play CT, and RHO holds CKQJx(x).
Or, play D first, hope LHO holds Dxxx and RHO holds 6-0-2-5.
You can run a simulation, I don't know which is more likely. Perhaps the
second case. Well, that could easily be your line I assume. I actually think
that down 2 is acceptable and I should avoid down 3. |
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b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 45 Any time LHO has 3 diamonds, you will have a good chance of down 1. But this
requires RHO to be of 6025 shape (and that RHO didn't false card at trick 1
from AQJTxx). If LHO has 2 diamonds instead, you risk going down 3. Not
worth it IMO. |
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b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 46 这是另一个低级双人赛。你完全不了解对手。
１）双无，你是第三家，ＫＱ３／ＡＫＪ８７２／Ｋ７／Ａ４，叫牌过程：
CHO RHO YOU LHO
p 1C x p
2S 3C 3H p
4H 5C ?
两个问题：A)你是否同意先前的叫牌？B)现在怎么叫?
２）有对无，你是第二家，Ｑ３２／ＡＫ２／ＡＪ２／ＡＱ４３，叫牌过程：
CHO RHO YOU LHO
p 2NT p
3C 3D p p
x p ?
3C为正常stayman，A)你是否同意先前的PASS？B)现在怎么叫? |
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w****b
发帖数: 623 | 47 But if RHO holds short C, even if it's a stiff CK, you are always safe if
you play CQ on first trick. The benefit of that is when you actually find
out RHO has Kxxx of C, you can still rely on D finesse to make the contract
-- even though in this case, it is more likely the S is 4-4. While low C on
first trick and low D to K deprives you this chance. |
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b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 48 Nothing wrong to play 9, but I just don't see how RHO's play could affect
your line. If I were RHO, I would usually not play the 10 if I have it,
especially when holding Txx (and knowing partner's 7 is singleton). I do
this out of habit (rather than really foresee any deep reason), because I
consider my trumps just the same as 432.
You are right about information entropy. What I meant was 信息量. |
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j*******e
发帖数: 2168 | 49 dummy (East)
A62
KJT
AQ6
Q954
KJT53
652
2
KT72
bidding:
E S W N
P P P
1N P 2C P
2D P 2S P
3S P P P
Opening lead: D3
You played DA and RHO played D9.
Three rounds of trumps, RHO showing Qxx, LHO pitching D4.
How do you continue to increase the chance of being lucky;-) |
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p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 50 Of course you need to give the bidding explanation and leading convention,
which can be obtained at the table.
let me just assume they lead 3/5, xx shows 10 HCP or more without S fit.
So RHO shows at least 6 spades. LHO didn't lead the obvious S. We can place
him to hold SAx or natural trump tricks like HKQx. D 3 is likely to be led
from three low D or 4 low D or QT3(2).
Now the basic idea is to ruff three spades. Anyway, you can win DA, CA, S to
SJ. if RHO wins and return H, you need to play HA... 阅读全帖 |
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