发帖数: 1 | 1 Shiller PE Ratio = 总市值 / 过去十年平均总利润
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
但现在S&P 500市值34%都是IT股贡献的，其中占总市值9%的高增长互联网公司都有很高
的PE，极高的Shiller PE Ratio。过去10年海量互联网公司在美国上市，强烈推高
Shiller PE。
Shiller PE Ratio来头不小，是2013年度诺贝尔奖经济学奖Robert J. Shiller提出的
，之前用来预测股市风险都很精准。但十年前远没有这么大比重的低盈利高增长高市值
的互联网公司，所以互联网时代Shiller PE被推高是必然，吓坏传统行业投资者之后会
出现超级大底，到时候正是抄底的好机会。 |
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g********n
发帖数: 2314 | 2 唱衰的：
S&P/Case-Shiller: Housing Prices Mostly Declined In November
Yesterday, I wrote about the big existing home sales decline in December.
Today, another important housing market metric was released: the S&P/Case-
Shiller Home Price Indices for November. The news here isn't any better here
. Both, its 10-city and 20-city composite price averages were down in
November. Prices were down for 16 of the 20 metropolitan areas it tracks.
The indices trend isn't encouraging.
Here's how the month-over-m... 阅读全帖 |
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s******r
发帖数: 868 | 3 大牛 大师怎么看。清仓吧
转
在对股市的历史估值进行研究后，诺贝尔经济学奖获得者罗伯特席勒（Robert Shiller
）周四表示，他认为未来股市有“大幅下滑的风险”。
即使在最近的危机拉低了道琼斯工业平均指数、标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克之后，
Shiller向CNBC表示，市场依然过高。
截至周三收盘，尽管涨势强劲，但道指依然处于修正区间。标普和纳斯达克综合指数的
反弹将指数拉出修正区间。
Shiller用周期调整后市盈率（CAPE）来衡量股市估值。CAPE是股价与过去10年平均利
润的比例。
他说：“CAPE目前大约是25。它处于高位。历史平均水平约为17，这样道指应该大约为
11,000点，标普应该处于1300点附近。”这样的回撤意味着股市将下跌超30%。
Shiller表示，他并不是这会发生，而是CAPE已经发出了警告。
事实上，从历史上来看，股市可能继续上升，因为CAPE曾经达到过更高水平。
他说：“月度CAPE在2000年达到44的顶峰，随后，股市大幅下跌，一度跌至13，并于
2007年上升至27，随后股市再度下跌。”
Shiller表示：“没有人能真正预测市场，但我认... 阅读全帖 |
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g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 6 Case-Shiller: 美国20个城市的房地产价格的跌幅超过预期，
1-months 3-months 1-year 2-years 3-years
earlier earlier earlier earlier earlier
============================================================
US Composite-20 -0.64% 0.35% -3.59% -3.18% -12.17%
------------------------------------------------------------
Miami -0.65% 0.27% -3.99% -6.59% -21.76%
Chicago -0.76% 2.49% -5.03% -10.32% -19.85%
-----------------------------------
NOTE: Th... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****1
发帖数: 1826 | 7 Here are the September Case-Shiller numbers, with metropolitan areas sorted
by 1-year change.
Metropolitan Area Sept-09
Level Sept./August
Change (%) August/July
Change (%) 1-Year
Change (%)
Denver 129.45 -0.50% 1.00% -1.20%
Dallas 120.57 -0.70% 0.20% -1.20%
Boston 155.62 -0.20% 0.90% -3.30%
Cleveland 105.75 -1.60% -0.50% -3.70%
Washington 180.45 0.50% 1.80% -5.00%
San Diego 154.76 0.90% 1 |
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发帖数: 1 | 8 FAANG就推高了不少Shiller PE ratio |
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g*********9
发帖数: 1285 | 9 Shiller PE就是衡量股市的一个指标。它能引起什么？没有逻辑。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 10 Shiller PE太高，就有很大概率股灾，这是过去一百年反复证明的 |
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g*********9
发帖数: 1285 | 11 这个是现象。Shiller PE高不高是相对于利息而言。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 12 The fuse of current huge bomb is automatic trading software which detected
dangerous Shiller PE ratio.
The fuse has been lit, it'll be a huge drop in the following months. |
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g*********9
发帖数: 1285 | 13 Shiller PE高了不是一天两天，不是一个月两个月，好几年了。利息是主因。 |
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n*******s
发帖数: 17267 | 14 这个属于听风就是雨， shiller 那玩意真正的作用在于不看好10年return， 而不是预
测股灾。
但是老八那个 market cap vs GDP 的老方子在死皮前高那里的确是火烧煤头了。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 15 如果市场是efficient, 那么不同智商的人从市场得到的回报应该是一样的。为了反驳
这一观点，Robert Shiller引用了一篇文章的观点：基金经理本科毕业学校的入学SAT
成绩要求越高，投资公司的回报越高。换句话说：基金经历本科是否名校毕业最重要，
MBA没用。而现在很多银行的基金经理只是读了个MBA就替别人理财。
文章摘要
我们研究共同基金的回报是否与基金经理的可能代表能力，知识或努力的特征有关。尤
其是，我们研究了绩效和经理年龄之间的关系，经理本科机构的平均综合SAT分数，以
及经理是否拥有MBA。尽管原始数据显示不同特征的经理之间存在显着的回报差异，但
其中大多数可以通过管理者之间的行为差异和选择偏差来解释。在对这
些进行调整后，仍然存在一些回报差异尤其是，本科要求SAT越高的学校毕业的的经理
有越高的风险调整后的超额收益。
Are Some Mutual Fund Managers Better Than Others? Cross㏒ectional Patterns
in Behavior and Performance
Judith C... 阅读全帖 |
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t***y
发帖数: 34 | 17 有点儿好奇这个index是怎么算出来的，
每次的existing home sale 和 new home sale, 都有一个median house price, 那个
简单，是成交的房屋的1/2，就是说一半的比它高，一半的比它低。
这个SP cahse-shiller据说是同一个房屋的historical price的记录，可是一个house
不是每个月都成交啊，怎么算的？是不是就是同一个地区差不多情况的house算成一个
了？
而且这个index比别人都晚一二个月，人家都是Aprile 和 May了，这个还是March的。 |
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h****r
发帖数: 2056 | 19 “This isn’t a forecast, but it’s a worry,” Robert Shiller, founder of
the index, told unwilling ears on CNBC, “that home prices might drop
substantially from here foreward, once this government support is taken away
… Mortgage rates will go up, the economy might double dip, the expectations
for housing -- which helped drive the markets -- might change suddenly when
people see the support being withdrawn. Some people were buying because of
the homebuyer tax credit. When that’s withdrawn, a lot of... 阅读全帖 |
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q**6
发帖数: 513 | 20 万维读者网记者唯一编译报道：美国股价自去年三月以来已经回升了70%，但是与2007
年最高峰时相比仍然低25%。那么现在股票是不是还值得买？还是已经超值了？
不仅普通很多投资者关注这个问题，华尔街专家也在争论不休。
CMM Money刊登的文章说，一向用P/E ratio(股价与业绩比值)来预测股市的耶鲁经济学
家Robert Shiller通常采用十年P/E历史数据来对美国股市进行了预测。他曾经正确地
预测了九十年代末的高科技泡沫。(www.creaders.net 老牌中文网）
现在Shiller采用同样的方法，他得到的结论是，与以前相比股市还没有科技泡沫时的
一半贵。但是现在的P/E ratio在21，按历史标准股价已经超值30%。如果按照这样的标
准，未来十年里美国股市的年回报率将在4%，低于历史水平。
但是Wharton教授兼著名经济学家Jerely Siegel不同意Shiller的分析，他认为Shiller
的方法不是用来预测经济的正确指标。
Siegel在他的著作Stock for the Long Run中说Shiller的方法最不适合今天的经济状
况下使用，现在美国... 阅读全帖 |
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d*2
发帖数: 2053 | 21 http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/22/real_estate/december_home_price
By Les Christie, staff writerFebruary 22, 2011: 2:02 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Home prices took a big hit at the end of 2010, even
as the rest of the economy gained steam.
National home prices fell 4.1% during the last three months of 2010,
compared with 12 months earlier, according to the latest report from the S&P
/Case-Shiller home price index, a closely watched indicator of market trends
. They were down 1.9% compared with th... 阅读全帖 |
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d*2
发帖数: 2053 | 22 http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2011/0531/Double-dip-in-home-
Home prices fell sharply during the first quarter of 2011, according to the
S&P/Case-Shiller index. The 'double dip' means they dropped below their
Great Recession low point, reached in early 2009.
By Mark Trumbull, Staff writer / May 31, 2011
A widely watched index of home prices has fallen to a level below its
recession low point, an official sign that the US housing market is in a so-
called "double dip" downturn.
Home prices fel... 阅读全帖 |
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q**6
发帖数: 513 | 23 万维读者网记者唯一编译报道：美国股价自去年三月以来已经回升了70%，但是与2007
年最高峰时相比仍然低25%。那么现在股票是不是还值得买？还是已经超值了？
不仅普通很多投资者关注这个问题，华尔街专家也在争论不休。
CMM Money刊登的文章说，一向用P/E ratio(股价与业绩比值)来预测股市的耶鲁经济学
家Robert Shiller通常采用十年P/E历史数据来对美国股市进行了预测。他曾经正确地
预测了九十年代末的高科技泡沫。(www.creaders.net 老牌中文网）
现在Shiller采用同样的方法，他得到的结论是，与以前相比股市还没有科技泡沫时的
一半贵。但是现在的P/E ratio在21，按历史标准股价已经超值30%。如果按照这样的标
准，未来十年里美国股市的年回报率将在4%，低于历史水平。
但是Wharton教授兼著名经济学家Jerely Siegel不同意Shiller的分析，他认为Shiller
的方法不是用来预测经济的正确指标。
Siegel在他的著作Stock for the Long Run中说Shiller的方法最不适合今天的经济状
况下使用，现在美国 |
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r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 24 FORTUNE -- Don't believe the bulls who predict a new era of rising stock
prices. Sure, their arguments sound convincing: Confidence will surge
following the arrival of a new, business-friendly Congress, the U.S. economy
always rebounds strongly after a deep recession -- it's just taking longer
this time. Or, it's the nature of the market to post big gains after a
decade or more of poor returns.
Unfortunately, the basic math doesn't support the optimists' case. Put
simply, the stock market is in ... 阅读全帖 |
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t*****d
发帖数: 525 | 25 耶鲁大学金融学教授、诺奖得主Robert Shiller认为，越来越多的投资者相信美股被
高估，这可能会引发美股进入大熊市的风险。
Shiller告诉英国《金融时报》称，他的基于投资者调查的估值信心指数显示，投
资者对美股估值过高的担忧创2000年互联网泡沫峰值以来最大。
“美股从2009年开始仅用了6年的时间就涨至3倍，同时投资者也对市场估值失去信
心，这在我看来有点像美股再次催生泡沫。”
然而，他也明确指出，不大可能猜出美股何时会下跌，也怀疑美联储本周加息后美
股会下跌。
“我不认为美联储加息会对美股产生重大影响。”他称，“投资者很长时间以来就
一直在谈论它，所有投资者都知道美联储将要加息了。它不会给市场带来非常大的影响
。”
Shiller补充称，历史数据证明利率和股价直接不存在联系。“你可能会认为加息
的时候投资者会抛售股票，但是金融市场不会那么简单。”
在2000年和2007年市场峰值前，经周期性调整后的市盈率就显示美股严重被高估。
过去几年，经周期性调整后的市盈率也一直显示美股被高估，但是美股仍然持续上涨。
Shiller称，经周期性调整的市盈率没有考虑到税收和会计准则的变... 阅读全帖 |
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g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 26 [2] S&P/Case-Shiller Indices
The Case-Shiller index prices are measured monthly and tracks repeat sales
of houses using a modified version of the weighted-repeat sales methodology
proposed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller and Allan Weiss. This means that,
to a large extent, it is able to adjust for the quality of the homes sold,
unlike simple averages.
As a monthly tracking index, Case-Shiller Index has long lag time. Typically
, it takes about 2 months for S&P to publish the results, as opposed ... 阅读全帖 |
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g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 27 [2] S&P/Case-Shiller Indices
The Case-Shiller index prices are measured monthly and tracks repeat sales
of houses using a modified version of the weighted-repeat sales methodology
proposed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller and Allan Weiss. This means that,
to a large extent, it is able to adjust for the quality of the homes sold,
unlike simple averages.
As a monthly tracking index, Case-Shiller Index has long lag time. Typically
, it takes about 2 months for S&P to publish the results, as opposed ... 阅读全帖 |
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S*********y
发帖数: 481 | 28 Analysis: In the U.S. housing market, recovery or Lost Decade?
By Michelle Conlin and Leah Schnurr | Reuters – Sun, Jul 15, 2012
(Reuters) - The worst U.S. housing crisis since the Great Depression has
been declared over. But is it?
What some of Wall Street's forecasts for a recovery may be underestimating
are tectonic shifts in the U.S. economy that make the housing market a
different place from a decade ago.
Record levels of student debt, 15 years of flat incomes and the fact that
nearly half ... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 29 鍙湅鍒拌〃璞★紝娌℃湁鍟ユ繁鍒昏瑙ｃ
Housing market reminiscent of 2006 bubble, ready to burst 鈥Nobel Prize-
winning economist Shiller
Published time: 5 Nov, 2018 06:40
The weakening housing market is similar to the last market high, just before
the subprime housing bubble burst a decade ago, says famed housing-watcher
Robert Shiller.
The economist, who predicted the 2007-2008 crisis, told Yahoo Finance that
current data shows 鈥渁 sign of weakness.鈥br />
Housing pivots take more time than those in the stock market... 阅读全帖 |
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b********2
发帖数: 5191 | 30 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
发信人: blueangel2 (Frank in Fremont), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: 瞎忽悠一下, 房市快触底了.
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Mar 18 15:01:50 2012, 美东)
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB500014240531119047970045772
It hit with the ferocity of an Old Testament plague, wiping out large
populations of homeowners in the U.S. Five million of the country's 76
million mortgage holders have lost their homes to foreclosure or lender-
ordered short sales since 2006, and an estimated 14 million more owe more... 阅读全帖 |
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b********y
发帖数: 5829 | 31 Jennifer Schonberger at Motley Fool interviews Professor Robert Shiller:
Shiller: The Housing Recovery Could Be on Shaky Ground.
A couple of comments from Shiller, first on house prices:
Robert Shiller: Home prices have been going up for nearly a year now,
according to our data, the S |
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b********y
发帖数: 5829 | 32 Jennifer Schonberger at Motley Fool interviews Professor Robert Shiller:
Shiller: The Housing Recovery Could Be on Shaky Ground.
A couple of comments from Shiller, first on house prices:
Robert Shiller: Home prices have been going up for nearly a year now,
according to our data, the S |
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J*K
发帖数: 331 | 33 【 以下文字转载自 Chinook 俱乐部 】
发信人: JFK (John F. Kennedy), 信区: Chinook
标 题: Is the Real-Estate Rebound for Real? zz
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Aug 5 16:39:09 2012, 美东)
For investors, "home" is no longer a four-letter word.
The real-estate sector, for the first time in years, is serving as a beacon
of relative strength in an otherwise weak economy. Standard & Poor's on
Tuesday reported that home prices in its S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index rose
0.9% in May from the prior month, after adjusting for seasonal t... 阅读全帖 |
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a**i
发帖数: 608 | 34 分析文章天天有。看看下面这个。
我觉得对 NJ 中北部大部分好的学区，房价底部已经过了。
利率还很低，股市天天涨，这些地方的房子上涨只是时间问题了。
Housing Declared Bottoming in U.S. After Six-Year Slump
Bloomberg
By John Gittelsohn and Prashant Gopal - Apr 25, 2012 11:51 AM ET
The U.S. housing market is showing more signs of stabilization as price
declines ease and home demand improves, spurring several economists to call
a bottom to the worst real estate collapse since the 1930s.
“The crash is over,” Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics
Inc. in West Ch... 阅读全帖 |
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b********2
发帖数: 5191 | 35 http://online.barrons.com/article/SB500014240531119047970045772
It hit with the ferocity of an Old Testament plague, wiping out large
populations of homeowners in the U.S. Five million of the country's 76
million mortgage holders have lost their homes to foreclosure or lender-
ordered short sales since 2006, and an estimated 14 million more owe more on
their homes than their properties are currently worth. In all, some $7.4
trillion in homeowners' equity has been destroyed, according to Mark Zan... 阅读全帖 |
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c******2
发帖数: 4019 | 36 (Reuters) - U.S. home prices could fall another 25 percent from current
levels, influential economist Robert Shiller said on Tuesday.
"My intuition rates the probability of another 15, 20, even 25 percent real
home price decline as substantial. That's not a forecast but it's a
substantial risk I think," Shiller told reporters on a conference call.
U.S. single-family home prices fell for the sixth month in a row in December
, bringing them closer to the low seen in 2009, according to the S&P/Case... 阅读全帖 |
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l******a
发帖数: 3803 | 37 Confidence among U.S. consumers declined more than forecast in January,
reaching the lowest level in more than a year as higher payroll taxes took a
bigger bite out of Americans’ paychecks.
Enlarge image
Sales grew to $48 billion from Oct. 28 through Dec. 22. Photographer: David
Paul Morris/Bloomberg
3:15
Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Karl Case, co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller index
of property values in 20 U.S. cities, talks about the housing market. The S&
P/Case-Shiller index increased 5.5 percen... 阅读全帖 |
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S******1
发帖数: 1831 | 38 http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/housing-dead-bubble
Five years after the housing market peaked, conditions are not improving in
most areas. The latest data shows housing prices are still down and housing
sales are sluggish. New home sales hit a record low in February and the S&P/
Case-Shiller home price index suffered it's sixth-consecutive price slump in
January.
Unfortunately, the halcyon years of real estate will not return, no matter
how much stimulus is pumped into the economy, ... 阅读全帖 |
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T****8
发帖数: 505 | 39 The real estate market is already in the deepest depression in modern U.S.
history. If you think it can't get any worse, think again. In several cities
, the real estate market is about to drop even more. Home values in many of
those cities, such as Las Vegas, have already collapsed as unemployment has
shot higher. And with no hope of quick recovery, housing prices are expected
to continue to fall. 24/7 Wall St. identified ten housing markets that are
expected to drop by at least another 10% by ... 阅读全帖 |
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T****8
发帖数: 505 | 40 The real estate market is already in the deepest depression in modern U.S.
history. If you think it can't get any worse, think again. In several cities
, the real estate market is about to drop even more. Home values in many of
those cities, such as Las Vegas, have already collapsed as unemployment has
shot higher. And with no hope of quick recovery, housing prices are expected
to continue to fall. 24/7 Wall St. identified ten housing markets that are
expected to drop by at least another 10% by ... 阅读全帖 |
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z****0
发帖数: 3942 | 41 source: WSJ
Home Prices Hit New Lows in January
By TESS STYNES And KATHLEEN MADIGAN
U.S. home prices fell in January from a month earlier, hitting new lows,
with average home prices back to the levels they were at nearly a decade ago
in early 2003, according to Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home-price
indexes.
Separately, U.S. consumers in March remain confident about the economy and
labor markets generally, but a broader index dipped as inflation worries
jumped this month, according to a repor... 阅读全帖 |
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l******x
发帖数: 1697 | 42 席勒：美国房价或将从目前水平再跌25%
2011年02月23日02:26汇通网我要评论(1)
著名经济分析师Robert Shiller周二(22日)表示，美国房价可能将从目前水平再下跌25
%。
Shiller在电话会议上表示，“我直觉认为实际房价可能将再下降15%-20%，甚至是25%
，这不是预估，仅是我认为的实际风险。”
根据标准普尔/Case Shiller综合指数，12月美国独栋房屋价格连续第6个月下降，接近
2009年所见的低位。 |
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p******e
发帖数: 17163 | 43 闲来无事，发个贴谈一下spx。 事先声明，以下用来估spx价值的方法不适宜用来炒
spx，也不是本人用来炒spx的基础，但对于长线投资或许有点参考价值。
数据来源， yale robert shiller 的网站的.
CAPE(or shiller pe)-cyclically adjusted price to earning,就是price/10yr
average earning, shiller 用real price/real earning, 我用他的nominal data,估
计差不多。
以下是统计数据
post 1881 post 1945 post 1972
average cape 18.089121132 21.2391410143 22.9730820113
median cape 15.9243524863 20.0333490382 21.8896179244
stedev cape 7.0461650924 7.6921046915 9.05... 阅读全帖 |
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b*******e
发帖数: 24532 | 45 Calls for another house bubbles
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There could soon be another bubble in housing, pontificates famous Yale
economist Robert Shiller. The father of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price
index said this week that, yet again, “People have gotten very speculative
in their attitudes toward housing." Unlike the previous bubble -- when
borrowers were convinced home prices would rise forever -- Shiller is now
concerned that ultra-low mortgage rates and the plethora of for |
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y***n
发帖数: 2318 | 46 美国房价仍有下行空间
信源：华尔街日报
体购房者正在焦虑地关注住房市场持稳的任何迹象，同样关注的还有那些认为住房市场
是经济问题关键的人。不过，最新公布的数据却显示形势愈加黯淡。
受到密切关注的Case-Shiller住房价格指数追踪着美国20个大城市住房价格走势。该指
数显示，截至1月份美国住房市场状况每况愈下，未见好转迹象。
然而，即便在价格下跌之后，整体房价与工资相比仍然不便宜。随后我们会进一步讨论
这点。
整体房价表现已经相当低迷，1月份Case-Shiller房价指数较上年同期下滑了19%。而怀
疑拖累房价的几个城市跌幅果然惨烈：凤凰城房价暴跌了35%，拉斯维加斯跌了32%，迈
阿密跌了29%。
房价下跌现象确实也在扩散。明尼阿波利斯房价跌了20%，芝加哥跌了16%。过去房价相
当坚挺的旧金山房价如今表现也令人瞩目。该市房价过去一年下挫了32%，跌幅甚至比
圣地亚哥和洛杉矶还高。
根据Case-Shiller数据显示，单是过去3个月旧金山房价就下跌了11%。
过去一年纽约房价下跌了10%，过去3个月下跌了4%；不过这种表现仍然好于平均水平。
住房市场能否承受住华尔街危机和普遍 |
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h********8
发帖数: 7355 | 47 【 以下文字转载自 Living 讨论区 】
发信人: Terp98 (Terp98), 信区: Living
标 题: Re: 房价开跌？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Aug 11 14:10:56 2011, 美东)
The real estate market is already in the deepest depression in modern U.S.
history. If you think it can't get any worse, think again. In several cities
, the real estate market is about to drop even more. Home values in many of
those cities, such as Las Vegas, have already collapsed as unemployment has
shot higher. And with no hope of quick recovery, housing prices are expected
t... 阅读全帖 |
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b**********u
发帖数: 2817 | 48 Home prices are showing signs of topping out: The S&P/Case-Shiller index
posted its first month-over-month decline in 10 months on Tuesday.
The annual measure of home prices still increased 13.7% in November, but
that was only narrowly better than the rise posted in October.
The housing recovery was one of the stronger aspects of the economy last
year, boosting household wealth and home construction.
But with mortgage rates climbing steadily since hitting record lows in May,
it's clear the housi... 阅读全帖 |
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j***h
发帖数: 4412 | 49 《热点透视》美国房价恐怕还要继续下探
2011年 1月 26日 星期三 12:59 BJT
(本文作者为热点透视专栏撰稿人,以下内容仅代表其个人观点)
撰稿 Martin Hutchinson; 编译 蔡美珍
路透华盛顿1月25日电---美国房价目前已经比高峰水准下跌31%.但或许还要再跌很多.
Case-Shiller 10大城市房价指数的1993年低位,以实质水准计算,几乎比目前水准还要
低三分之一.银行业者最好期望通货膨胀高于利率升速,减轻房价未来跌势.
上一次楼市衰退的底部是在1993年10月.当时,Case-Shiller房价指数只比1990年3月高
峰下跌8%,严重的房价下跌只出现在南加州.当时整体经济所摆脱的景气衰退,比我们刚
经历的这次衰退轻微.举例来说,当年失业率到了7.8%就回落,而最近美国失业率还高达
10.1%.不过当年的利率较高.1993年10月的30年期抵押贷款利率为6.8%,而2010年11月的
仅4.3%.
自1993年以来,实质收入成长约15%,但由于美国刚经历过的景气衰退较为严重,通货膨胀
调整後的房价是有可能会跌向1993年低位--特别是如果抵... 阅读全帖 |
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T****8
发帖数: 505 | 50 The Ten Housing Markets That Will Collapse This Year
by Michael B. Sauter, Douglas A. McIntyre
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
tweet61EmailPrintprovided by
The real estate market is already in the deepest depression in modern U.S.
history. If you think it can't get any worse, think again. In several cities
, the real estate market is about to drop even more. Home values in many of
those cities, such as Las Vegas, have already collapsed as unemployment has
shot higher. And with no hope of quick recove... 阅读全帖 |
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