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c*****l
发帖数: 12 | 2 很多人计算interest spread来测度信用风险，尤其是最近次债危机以来，这种spread
显著飙升。我对金融不太熟悉，有的东西心里没有把握，特此请教，谢谢！
我计算了两个利差的长时间序列:
TED利差：3个月欧洲美元利率（即银行间利率）减去3个月国债利率。
Baa利差：10年期穆迪Baa级Corporate Bond利率减10年期国债利率，Michalel Bordo（
2008)就是用的这个。
我是否可以说，TED利差主要是测度银行间的信用风险；而Baa主要测度公司的信用风险
?对前一个还有点把握，但后者我就没底了（所谓Corportate Bond是不是也包括银行发
行的债券）？
从数据上看我发现两个利差波动趋势有一定差别，2001年衰退的时候，Baa利差加大，
但TED利差基本没有变，因此我想推断2001年当时公司信用风险很大，但银行间信用没
有出现问题。
如能点拨一二，非常感谢！很多文献都是拿这两个利差直接用，都没有给出解释，如能点拨这方面的相关背景资料，也非常感谢。
（有兴趣的话我可以把图发过去，欢迎讨论） |
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p**********6
发帖数: 3408 | 5 具体方案我肯定没有，否则我成政治家了。看法我当然有。
要把目的和手段区别开来。比如（选举制）民主是目的还是手段？如果民主的目的就是
民主，比如同样是在TED上演讲的这位英国议员说的：
http://www.ted.com/talks/rory_stewart_how_to_rebuild_democracy.
“民主的重要性并不在于它本身的‘好处’也不是它可以带来的利益”，也就是说民主
本身就是爽，是人的最终追求，那么也就没啥好说的了。但是现在西方各国的投票率这
么低，足以说明投票本身并不足以让人爽，否则何以这么多人主动不去爽而是去不爽。
其他一些则真的是目的，比如我希望饿了能吃到饭冷了有衣穿，我不想因为白天说了什
么话晚上就有人闯家里来把我揍一顿或关到牢里。就不要问为什么我想要这些了，你要
问的话，那也没有什么好说的了。一旦分清这两样事情，就不会觉得李的演讲太
provocative或enlightening。
李的演讲没有提到民主失效的原因，他自己也说只是列举事实。我觉得民主失效的原因
就在于我前面说过的《乌合之众》中说到的群体智力的低下。群众没法思考（里面的每
个个体有可能都非常... 阅读全帖 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 6 Obstacle to Senate vote: Ted Cruz
By: Manu Raju and Burgess Everett
September 26, 2013 04:08 PM EDT
A growing number of Republicans and Democrats want the Senate to finish a
stopgap spending bill Thursday to lessen the chances of a government
shutdown next week.
But there’s a big hurdle in the way: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).
Several sources in both parties say Cruz refuses to allow the Senate to vote
Thursday, a decision frustrating lawmakers who worry that delaying a vote
will make it impossible ... 阅读全帖 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 7
Ted是个人物，但他的前途要看这次shutdown的结果，如果像媒体普遍估计那样R党灰溜
溜认输，Ted会被吐沫淹死。 |
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n******g
发帖数: 53 | 8 http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/10/ted-cruz-angers-ni
Sen. Ted Cruz’s sense of humor is earning him some ill will from near and
far.
A Nigerian-American organization wants the Texas Republican to apologize for
comments he made Monday about the problems with the Affordable Care Act
website.
“You may have noticed that all the Nigerian email scammers have become a
lot less active lately,” Cruz said at a gathering with supporters in
Houston, according to the Houston Chronicle.
“They all ha... 阅读全帖 |
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t******r
发帖数: 8600 | 9 不过我还是觉得Ted有戏。Rubio is not ready for prime time，probably will
never be; 胖子太肥了；Jeb Bush肯定不会出来；Rand Paul大概被他老子screwed了；
三哥肯定不行；Ryan没有个人魅力。除了Ted，GOP没人了。
题。 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 10 I am going to vote this guy.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/13/ted-cruz-gay-marriage-
WASHINGTON -- It seems Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has taken up a new cause in
Congress -- defending states' right to regulate marriage.
Amid a wave of court decisions striking down anti-gay marriage laws in
states, the Texas Republican introduced a bill to the Senate Wednesday to
amend U.S. law "with regard to the definition of 'marriage' and 'spouse' for
Federal purposes and to ensure respect for State reg... 阅读全帖 |
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p****y
发帖数: 23737 | 11 http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NjUxNjQ0MA==&mid=200924774&
李世默，汉族，加州大学伯克利分校学士，斯坦福大学工商管理学硕士，复旦大学国际
关系及公共事务学院博士。
TED环球大会在爱丁堡举行。李世默在大会上发表演讲，题目为《China and the End
of Meta-Narratives》，以亲身经历讲述中国发展的两个三十年故事，突破了以往TED
演讲题材，涉及中国崛起的历史、制度、经验等方方面面，引起现场热烈反响，并引发
热议，西方人终于明白，什么是政治手段。
李世默对“元叙事”教条的颠覆性演讲给听众带去了极大的震撼。该演讲最终成为
TED2013年度最佳演讲。 |
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l*****h
发帖数: 709 | 12 人家爹是古巴人，05年加入美籍，妈是美国人，在加拿大做生意，有枫叶卡，在加拿大
生了Ted，Ted生下来就是加拿大公民，去年才主动注销加拿大国籍
结果人家现在是标准的“natural born citizen“，有资格竞选总统 |
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z****z
发帖数: 2054 | 13 床铺在上周六共和党辩论中的自杀性行为艺术看来终于起作用了.
在装B方面, Ted Cruz是共和党天字第一号的人物:
一个说话就象是在诗朗诵的家伙, 从头假到脚, 从里假到外.
他的基本盘是茶党+social conservative+各种极右精神病患者.
但两相比较, 比起行为艺术家床铺, 对美国来说, Ted Cruz确实还是个更好的选择.
现在的美国也确实是精神分裂得不象样子了.
就共和党剩下的这些人里面, 最好的选择应该是John Kasich.
结果两个疯子床铺和Cruz一路领先.
现在只能希望还有点理智的Cruz能把床铺干掉. |
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l*****7
发帖数: 8463 | 14 Republican presidential candidate, Ted Cruz,is battling an entanglement of
rumors that allege the Texas senator is "hiding five different mistresses,"
according to the tabloid the National Enquirer.
According to its source, identified as a "Washington insider," "private
detectives are digging into at least five affairs Ted Cruz supposedly had,"
and "the leaked details are an attempt to destroy what's left of his White
House campaign." The supposed affairs are detailed in the Enquirer's most
rece... 阅读全帖 |
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g**1
发帖数: 10330 | 15 美航母停港遭拒 克魯茲：應改道去台灣
2016年04月30日 07:52 任鳳儀／綜合整理
大陸拒絕史丹尼斯號航空母艦戰鬥群訪問香港，美國共和黨總統候選人克魯茲（Ted
Cruz）建議，航母戰鬥群應該改道去台灣。(圖取自克魯茲推特)
美國國防部29日表示，中國大陸拒絕史丹尼斯號航空母艦(USS John C. Stennis)戰鬥
群前往香港訪問。美國共和黨總統候選人克魯茲（Ted Cruz）建議，航母戰鬥群應該改
道去台灣。
甫宣布邀請前對手、惠普公司前行政總裁費奧利（Carly Fiorina）出任副總統提名人
的克魯茲，今天在他的推特（Twitter）上推文表示，「美國航空母艦訪問香港遭拒，
證明中華人民共和國不是美國的夥伴，我們應該讓航母改道去台灣。」
儘管美國軍艦有「長期訪問香港成功的紀錄」，但史丹尼斯號航艦與隨行船艦此次提出
的訪港請求，卻遭到拒絕。現象顯示，因南海主權爭議，中美關係緊張度升高。
(集團連線報導) |
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D**s
发帖数: 6361 | 17 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
Ted Cruz 太牛了，听证会上大骂民主党和八马，句句实情， 针针见血啊
真爽啊，太赞了， Ted Cruz 人才啊
When Eric Holder’s Department of Justice allowed illegal gun transactions,
illegally sold guns to Mexican gun traffickers as part of Fast and Furious,
guns that were later used to murder border patrol agent Brian Terry, the
Democratic members of this committee were silent. When Eric Holder was found
in contempt of Congress for refusing to cooperate with Congress’
investigation into Fast and Furious, once again, t... 阅读全帖 |
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D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 20 You don't even know about Fred&Ted?
It is probably NOW the most famous gay Chinese couple anywhere from China to
the U.S. They have been rather famous among Chinese gay guys for a long
time anyway.
Backchina.com just put their story and LOTS of photos on its homepage. Those
photos were earlier uploaded by Fred&Ted themselves. |
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D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 21 Because they are of different ages.
Fred&Ted are in their lower 30's. 李阮一家人 are more likely around 40 or at least in their upper 30's.
Fred was forced out a couple of years ago because many of their photos were leaked online causing the outting :-)
Now Ted fears the same scenario happening to him as well.
But they in these pictures look so different from those in 李阮一家人's. |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 22 Coming Thursday: Investigative Report on Ted Stevens Prosecution
By Joe Palazzolo
A federal appeals court won’t hold up the release of an investigative
report on the botched prosecution of the late Sen. Ted Stevens. The ruling
by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit means a redacted version
of the 500-page report will likely be made public Thursday, as planned.
The long-awaited report, parts of which were revealed in court filings in
November, found that prosecutors engaged in “sy... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 23 February 1, 2013 | by Warner Todd Huston
Texas’ newest Senator, Republican Ted Cruz, has launched a Cruz missile
right at Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel for the threatening letters the mayor
sent to several American banks because they do business with American gun
manufacturers. Cruz advises the banks not to be bullied by the Windy City
Mayor’s bluster.
On January 25 Chicago Mayor Emanuel, a former Obama chief of staff, sent out
letters threatening the CEOs of the Bank of America and TD Bank Group,... 阅读全帖 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 24 this possibility is close to zero.
It will be a disaster if Ted is nominated as the president candidate in a
GOP primary. Ted Cruz's approval rate is below 20% nationalwide. |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 25 Rep. Ted Yoho: Halt Funding to Mexico Until Border Secure
by Caroline May 8 Jul 2014, 2:15 PM PDT 2
Florida Republican Rep. Ted Yoho says Mexico should not get foreign aid
until the U.S.-Mexico border is secure.
“Mexico should not be accepting American generosity with one hand and
covering their eyes to the situation at the border with the other,” Yoho
explained.
Last week Yoho introduced legislation to suspend foreign aid to Mexico until
Congress deems the southern border to be secure.
The leg... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 26 Ted Cruz Submits Second Border Crisis Bill: 'We Must Put a Stop to President
Obama's Amnesty'
via Breitbart Feed
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) introduced another border crisis bill on Thursday,
which, like the first one he introduced last week, is aimed at curbing
President Barack Obama’s amnesty for illegal aliens via executive order.
Cruz issued a statement about his new bill:
The current situation in the Rio Grande Valley is a humanitarian crisis
of this Administration’s making. President Obama se... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 27 The Washington Post's Obama Deniers
March 25, 2015 - 7:27 AM
By L. Brent Bozell III & Tim Graham
It's as if they were waiting, breathlessly. The moment Ted Cruz announced
his presidential campaign, the national media proclaimed their horror. He
was "brash," a "hardliner," an "uncompromising conservative," they warned.
ABC anchor David Muir announced his agenda was the usual No list: "Promising
no abortion, no gay marriage, no gun control, no IRS."
Apparently, there's no room for hope and change ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 28 Michael Goodwin
By Michael Goodwin
Published March 25, 2015
March 23, 2015: Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, his wife Heidi, and their two
daughters Catherine, 4, left, and Caroline, 6, right, wave on stage after he
announced his campaign for president at Liberty University, founded by the
late Rev. Jerry Falwell, in Lynchburg, Va. Cruz, who announced his candidacy
on twitter in the early morning hours, is the first major candidate in the
2016 race for president. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
Next
Convent... 阅读全帖 |
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n**1
发帖数: 318 | 29 我对他个人不是很乐观，但觉得他的参选，提高了保守派候选人的档次。
GOP 08年推出的，是个RINO；12年，是个温和中间派；没有一个是持比较保守立场的。
如果这次GOP的正式候选人比Ted左，说明GOP已死，大伙一心一意搞保守的第三党；如
果是Ted或更右，但输了大选，那说明美国已死透，纸都免烧了。 |
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l*********1
发帖数: 936 | 30 TED 自己就是默，还输了美国墨黑化不可避免。
加拿大，澳大利亚什么时候待见过你们这些黄陂猴子呢？还做梦可以技术移民过去？
见过加拿大华人到美国打工的，没见过反过来的
TED有加拿大国籍，跑路去加拿大还比你容易些。 |
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l*********1
发帖数: 936 | 31 TED 自己就是默，还输了美国墨黑化不可避免。
加拿大，澳大利亚什么时候待见过你们这些黄陂猴子呢？还做梦可以技术移民过去？
见过加拿大华人到美国打工的，没见过反过来的
TED有加拿大国籍，跑路去加拿大还比你容易些。 |
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i******b
发帖数: 1780 | 32 Ted是古巴的白墨,比那种纯老墨要好得多,整体素质也高得多.而且他是反对美国继续黑
墨化的,这种人,不管他是哪个种族都无条件支持.加拿大华人地位很高,你难道不知道吗
? 而且加拿大澳洲的社会安全也好,即使不受人待见,也总比担心无缘无故被黑墨抢劫谋
杀要好吧.在美国黑墨看得起你这只黄猴子吗? 至于能不能移民,看你学什么专业的,我
的专业是美国加拿大最需要也最挣钱的,在哪里都能找到工作,技术移民不难,你自己猜
去吧.
TED为了竞选,已经放弃加拿大国籍了. |
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C****t
发帖数: 3813 | 33 Glenn Beck's TheBlaze is a a lot better than Sean Hannity.
Ted Cruz Scolds Harry Reid, Dems on Senate Floor After Objection to
Unanimous Consent on ‘Kate’s Law’
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) sternly scolded Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) on the
Senate floor Wednesday after the Democrat objected to his motion for
unanimous consent on “Kate’s Law,” which would implement mandatory
minimum sentences for illegal immigrant felons.
Reid argued that the mandatory minimum sentencing of criminal illegal aliens
would ... 阅读全帖 |
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T*********I
发帖数: 10729 | 34 我觉得你连接里论证的这个点非常薄弱。“Cruz was naturalized at birth.”这相当
牵强。
如果CRUZ没有经过naturalization这个手续，如果不是natrual born，怎么解释他却是
美国公民？原作者搞了好多弯。但是我认为经不住推敲。automatic acquisition of
citizenship。那一个在美国生的（即狭义的符合natural born条款的人）也实际上是
automatic被赋予了citizenship。也是要经过测试：To become a citizen at birth,
you must have been born in the United States。所以多绕这个弯子并不hurt CRUZ
的情况。
Cruz is, of course, a U.S. citizen. As he was born in Canada, he is not
natural-born. His mother, however, is an American, and Congress has provided
by sta... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 35 Ted Cruz: Honor Justice Scalia by Preventing Obama from Choosing His
Replacement
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/13/ted-cruz-hon
Sen. Cruz also issued the following statement regarding Scalia’s passing:
Today our Nation mourns the loss of one of the greatest Justices in history
– Justice Antonin Scalia. A champion of our liberties and a stalwart
defender of the Constitution, he will go down as one of the few Justices who
single-handedly changed the course of legal history.
As lib... 阅读全帖 |
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S*********n
发帖数: 591 | 36 CNN也特别往上引。明天肯定让trump骂ted。ted确实招人烦。这货其实两头不靠，选上
的机会很小 |
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r****5
发帖数: 618 | 37 可能是有一定的原因，他应该知道复读机对他的威胁。他这样搞可能是想先把Ted干翻
，然后吸收ted的人，这样应该能超过50%。 或者他觉得复读机好对付，一对一的时候
他觉得赢面很大。问题是establised现在大力支持复读机，就看下面怎么走了。另外，
Bush和前面chris都退路了，好像他们的支持者也没有多少到 trump这边来。 |
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K********y
发帖数: 5068 | 38 Ted够无耻的, 还想凌驾于IRS之上，Trump都告诉他在Audit，Audit完以后就会公布于
众，
Ted还不断死打烂缠， 真真恶心 |
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s*******p
发帖数: 1291 | 39 我是一只觉得ted是个人才， 可能真的有自己的信仰，所以不会变来变去。 查档的理
念我也认同的。
可惜，跟trump较劲过了，被贴上“liar”的标签，不知道trump以后怎么用他。
trump上位以后必须仰赖这样人冲锋陷阵的，像ted cruz霸占议会，滔滔不绝说几十个
小时，gop没有那样的人了。
rubio是个小丑，没有任何利用价值。 |
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s*******1
发帖数: 16479 | 40 你是真不喜欢Ted，哈哈，那个老王么ted是他老大
我觉得他比rubio还是好很多，至少有点真才实料 |
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t***h
发帖数: 2924 | 41 这个Jan Morgan以前在fb写过投票给cruz, 还说服了劳工也投了cruz.
现在被cruz昨天的发言气坏了， 拉了一帮朋友， 十个， 改成trump粉了。
Jan Morgan
Follow
21 hrs ·
I have officially withdrawn my endorsement and support for Ted Cruz.
His decision to blame Trump for the violence and actions of paid, liberal
thugs/ protestors in Chicago is unconscionable.
Ted Cruz should have used this opportunity to take a stand for free speech.
Instead, he sides with the protestors and lies about Trump saying he
encourages violence. (never mind the fact that his own... 阅读全帖 |
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j*****v
发帖数: 7717 | 43 到現在還沒見Ted陣營出來澄清。
如果沒這事，Ted早跳出來play victim的game，就好像照片門事件一樣。
這事情不說清楚，到了GE會被老婊子當活靶子吊著打。 |
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C*******h
发帖数: 6095 | 45 以后如果Ted说Trump, you cannot insult your way to the presidency。Trump应该
说，Ted, you cannot sleep your way to the presidency LOL |
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g********r
发帖数: 4248 | 46 美国总统竞选现在是如火如荼。 各班人马登台表演，可谓精彩纷呈。泰德克鲁兹 (Ted
Cruz)是共和党阵营的第二号人选， 也是共和党建制派想推翻第一号人选床铺(Trump
)的代理人。
截止今天床铺已得票739张；克鲁兹得票465张。 还有944张票还没有决定。 只要凑足
1237张票， 就是共和党的总统候选人， 也就是可以进入决赛了。克鲁兹现在还有些希
望。
现在进入相互诋毁的刀刃相见的阶段。
泰德克鲁兹 (Ted Cruz) 的性丑闻起源于偏克鲁兹团队（为什么要说这个‘偏’或‘亲
’字，因为都不承认是自己干的）的一个报纸在竞选电视广告中， 登出了床铺现任妻
子的以前的全身的裸照， 以暗示选民不要这样的人作为美国第一夫人。 床铺马上在他
的推特(Twitter)上反击， 贴出两个夫人的头像对比。 一张图的表达胜过一千句话。
左边是克鲁兹夫人；右边是床铺夫人，曾是模特。
泰德克鲁兹的夫人是他在布什政府幕僚的同事， 曾为华尔街工作过。华尔街在美国人
民心中的形象是贪婪，吸血的资本家们。 自从克鲁兹在德州任职后， 辞职在家， 得
了抑郁症。 有次，州警发现她在高速路口，一个人茫然地徘徊。 ... 阅读全帖 |
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n**********n
发帖数: 984 | 47 假设我是lying ted的话，那么会想好一个正常的反应，无论记者问什么，就把它当作
问是不是“刚才放了一个湿屁，屁股上都是屎"？假设lying ted当时没湿屁，那么就很
容易的用正常表情说NO. |
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m********g
发帖数: 10469 | 48 不能这么讲，ted cruz这淫虫虽然搞不来大场面，但他爹老子四处串联各地教会，这个
比较牛，你看密苏里基本上和床铺拼平了北卡也没落下太多，他就是靠这种手法。搞万
人场从来不是他的本事。lying Ted的本事在闭门抄作。 |
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 49 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/
daily-202-ted-cruz-s-war-with-matt-drudge-could-become-a-huge-problem-for-
his-campaign/570be431981b92a22deda1b9/
Savage: Cruz should disavow rigged Colorado election … Buchanan:
Apparatchiks thieve delegates for Ted … 1 MILLION REPUBLICANS SIDELINED …
Border Patrol Agents: Colorado Voters Disenfranchised.” Keep in mind that
this is three days after the Colorado convention.
The Donald’s allies in the right-wing media, including Drud... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 50 下室索男怎么办啊？手也是”玩具“
LGBT怎么办啊？对手也是个大号的”玩具“
Cruz defended criminalization of dildos
While solicitor general of Texas, Ted Cruz defended a Texas law prohibiting
the sale of sex toys such as dildos, reports David Corn of Mother Jones.
Cruz’s office filed a long brief reading in part, “There is no substantive
-due-process right to stimulate one’s genitals for non-medical purposes
unrelated to procreation or outside of an interpersonal relationship.”
That is, the pursuit of such happiness had no constitu... 阅读全帖 |
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