b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 1 LA poll还好吧。trump最后43%，poll也差不多那个数。唯一错的是cruz surge. |
|
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 2 Yes. Carson's votes went to Cruz in LA. |
|
r******g
发帖数: 4002 | 3 几乎每一个教会都在给神棍洗脑，让他们投CRUZ，所以，川普初选比大选还难。 |
|
m********g
发帖数: 10469 | 4 克露子就是认为上次几百万嫉妒徒没出来，只要保持上次人数，加入这几百万就赢了.
他认为不需要靠中间都能赢 |
|
b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 5 missing millions voters theory.这个theory是个幻想。这次催出来都是trump的支持
者。 |
|
m********g
发帖数: 10469 | 6 是啊，和甜妈的封顶论一样，文科生拍脑袋想出来的，这人都是活的，４年过去，啥想
法的都有。 |
|
c***n
发帖数: 1034 | 7 而且我觉得那些黑人居多的州之所以Sanders输给Hillary，原因并不是黑人不喜欢
Sanders的教育、医疗、养老政策；而是他们根本就不知道Sanders是谁以及他的政策是
什么。不是黑人更喜欢福利超过大学教育，而是他们根本就没有时间或者能力去了解一
个完全陌生的候选人。这可以从那几个黑人比例高的州的low turnout反映出来。
在阻挡Sanders上，主流媒体为Hillary做出了重要贡献。 |
|
m****s
发帖数: 8992 | 8 Many Trump voters are Reagan democRATS.
Trump taunted he brought voter increase to GOP
And all the media/press agreed
And they even pointed out that while GOP voter turnouts increased . The
democRATs side have decreased.
Well. Dumbass. Because those democRATS went to vote "republican front runner"
Bloomberg is democRATs
Trump is democRATs
Kasich is democRATs
Marco to some extent is also RATs
GOP is so messed up. It's now a ticket to RIDE. |
|
b**********s
发帖数: 9531 | 9 你这3点都错了
1。98年共和党中期选举胜利，但2000年其实是输了。如果不是nadar出来分票，共和党
根本没戏。
2。trump对中间选民非常有吸引力，共和党初选turnout这么高，很多都是中间选民加
入和保守民主党加入的结果。
3。Cruz的宪法路线听着就让人睡觉，共和党都没有吸引力，你还说民主党？最后cruz
的所谓宪法路线也是假的。芝加哥极左挠闹场，违反宪法言论自由，cruz屁都不放一个
，反而指责trump.还有更low的吗？ |
|
b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 10 CHICAGO — Leaders of more than 20 leading liberal groups supporting both
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are set to release a scathing letter on
Tuesday that serves as a progressive call to arms against Donald Trump,
imploring Americans to undertake a unified set of concrete steps to oppose
the Republican front-runner — from protesting to organizing large-scale
voter turnout efforts.
“This is a five-alarm fire for our democracy. A hate-peddling bigot who
openly incites violence is the likely ... 阅读全帖 |
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 11 别担心，当初巴马也是一路给骂上去的，还一做两届 可见有人骂是好事。希拉里就是
2008的马坎，2012的罗姆尼 就一看戏的，没她什么事。所有的focus，enthusiasm,
turnout，momentum都在共和党这边 |
|
r***l
发帖数: 9084 | 12 共和党的确不容有失任何大的摇摆州，而民主党可以afford丢掉2个大摇摆州。
民调这个东西还是靠谱的。12年选举罗姆尼民调一直落后，大部分poll都预测他会输掉
，vegas赔率一直也是罗姆尼下狗。最后结果比大部分poll预测还惨，特别是在佛罗里
达，本来罗姆尼觉的佛罗里达胜算不小，但最后输的很多，究其原因，绝大多数poll都
不会poll到那些穷人，而如果turnout高，这些穷人出来头，共和党就没戏了。佛罗里
达就是这种情况，12年佛州西班牙裔投票排起了长队，共和党里面的聪明人一看就说罗
姆尼危险了，所以某种程度上，对于共和党来说，真实情况会比poll更糟糕。
现在这么多poll都显示trump vs hillary是所有共和党候选人里面最低的，而rubio/州
长都是领先希拉里几个百分点，起码在目前是这样，这不可能是空穴来风。现在民主党
一直躲边上看热闹，还没有追打trump. 真等到general election, 民主党发动机器连
篇累牍甚至断章取义的反复播放trump那些有争议的镜头，中间选民/西班牙裔选民会受
影响的，trump情况会更糟。
我也喜欢trump不少地方，... 阅读全帖 |
|
x****d
发帖数: 2239 | 13 Trump urged to be more serious as Wisconsin contest looms
---------------------------------------------------------------
By Steve Holland
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Donald Trump is facing pressure to adopt a more
serious tone in his U.S. presidential campaign from Republicans worried that
a string of missteps may do him lasting damage in remaining state-by-state
contests needed to clinch the nomination.
Those who have marveled at Trump’s rise are cautioning the front-running
New York billionaire as... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 14 In the latest shock for the GOP, which in recent weeks some have speculated
is willing to scuttle the entire republican presidential campaign if it
means not having Trump as the candidate, according to a just released
Reuters poll, one third of Republican voters who support Donald Trump could
turn their backs on their party in November's presidential election if he
is denied the nomination in a contested convention.
Or, as The Hill puts it, "blocking Donald Trump from the Republican
presidentia... 阅读全帖 |
|
l*****8
发帖数: 16949 | 15 说得一点不错啊。而且民主党的两个可能的候选人是烂得不能再烂的了。本来共和党有
7-8成机会，现在我看一成都没有了。说他是民主党的卧底一点都不错。这里的不少床
粉把所有反对床铺的都统统打成左派。可是这些自认最正宗的“右派”，如果川普不是
候选人，宁愿跑去投民主党，真是可笑至极。
川普从一开始就玩下三路。把别的共和党候选人搞臭的同时，他自己其实也把自己搞臭
了。共和党的女性选民都7成讨厌他，更不用说中间选民了。虽说他的主张能吸引一些
平时不投票的白人出来投票，但反过来也激发更多的反对者出来投票。这个在初选时已
经证明的了（turnout rate虽然高，但他的得票几乎从来没有高过名调）。这种玩法也
就是共和党初选竞争的人多的时候有效，现在只剩三个人已经开始受挫了，更不用说GE
了，那是一点戏都没有。
正这 |
|
a****n
发帖数: 1528 | 16 Simply put, women and minorities HATE Trump, and those are the groups of
voters who will really decide the election in November. Plus, where are the
“new voters” that Trump is really bringing to the general election? Trump
has been really good at energizing the racist morons and losers who already
came out to vote against the Black Guy in 2008 and 2012, but he’s not going
to bring hordes of new voters to the polls in November. Lots more people
are going to be strongly motivated to vote AGAINST T... 阅读全帖 |
|
b**********s
发帖数: 9531 | 17 PA有大量民主党crossover,应该希望比较大。另外民主党那边即使turnout高,sanders
也有很多票可以争取。 |
|
f********8
发帖数: 5601 | 18 克林顿有少数族裔的基础是没错，但是奥巴马让turnout显著提高。肯尼迪家族也就搞
了个祝日大使的位置，贡献其实不大。奥巴马通过social media号召了年轻人和黑墨，
这是体制内的民主党做不到的。 |
|
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 19 看一看人家的干货：川普对老黑比任何共和党候选人有吸引力。
"Mitt Romney only garnered 6 percent of the black vote in 2012. However,
this election is shaping up to be more competitive: nearly one-tenth of
African-Americans view the Donald positively, with another 15 percent
undecided. If even half of the latter group ultimately sides with Trump, or
simply stays home on Election Day, Clinton loses. For her to win, African-
American participation needs to at least match 2012 turnout, and Clinton
must win roughly 90 percent of t... 阅读全帖 |
|
b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 20 只要足够多的黑人，latino出来投票。
WASHINGTON - Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton posed a wild
notion in a new interview: She could carry Texas in the fall.
In a newly published New York magazine interview with reporter Rebecca
Traister, Clinton was asked which traditionally red states she might make a
play for against likely GOP nominee, Donald Trump:
“Texas!” she exclaimed, eyes wide, as if daring me to question this,
which I did. “You are not going to win Texas,” I said. She smiled,
undaun... 阅读全帖 |
|
m********g
发帖数: 10469 | 21 这左疯婆子一看又要悲愤了
I was wrong: Trump WILL be the next president
Jake Novak | @jakejakeny
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
A few months ago, I wrote that Donald Trump would win the GOP presidential
nomination – but that would be the end of the line for him. I was sure that
Trump just couldn't shore up enough of the already too small Republican
base to win in November, thus nearly guaranteeing not only a loss but a big
loss to Hillary Clinton in the general election.
Well, I was wrong.
Presidential Repub... 阅读全帖 |
|
f********8
发帖数: 5601 | 22 看这几天rally的走势，他要继续扩大共和党的turnout和吸收民主党内反体制的那一群。
对于swing voters不打算下大功夫。因为中间选民主要看具体政策，他这个outsider一
时半会也端不出菜来。估计carson那群人正在帮忙收罗门客，成型以后也许有牛肉出来
。 |
|
f********8
发帖数: 5601 | 23 这个会降低希老太的turnout。在加州是作死。 |
|
f********8
发帖数: 5601 | 24 两个候选人对美国的认知完全不同，vision也南猿北撤。在这样的分水岭下，其他都是
trivial details。
已经决定投谁了的人，短短4个月不可能跳到另个一阵营。今年没有中间选民。今年也
没有中间偏左或者骗右的问题。能冲高turnout的一方就赢定了。 |
|
|
I********w
发帖数: 763 | 26 话说这个网上直播是哪个电台做的？Fox照说是支持共和党的，也没见给crowd个全景。
如果把Trump和Hilary每次rally的turnout全景播出，那画面太美主党不敢看
[在 keyeast2004 (keyeast) 的大作中提到：]
:他通过拉力给和党领袖施加压力。和党领袖可以不在乎老川，但不得不正视和党选民
的民意。 |
|
j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | 27 Scottish turnout likely to be 70%！ |
|
A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 28 双方对比显然Leave的turnout更高，而且伦敦并没汉城纽约那样变态的人口高。手工计
票，作弊很难，我看exit基本赢了 |
|
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 29 http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jun/9/bernie-sanders-ted-cruze-best-vp-picks/
Mr. Trump appears vulnerable in North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia and perhaps
Utah — all states that Mitt Romney won in 2012. In order for Mr. Trump to
win in November, he must at least hold these states, while flipping others.
Mr. Trump — who’s brash remarks about a federal judge has created a crisis
among Republican leadership this week — needs a consistent, reliable
conservative to be on his ticket. One who ... 阅读全帖 |
|
A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 30 这些poll故意不把双方投票热情这个最重要指标放进去，你可以说不是造假，但本意就
没想准确预测结果。结果就是打他们的脸，脱欧派的turnout锁定结果 |
|
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 31 选民不是傻逼，奥黑2012年就很勉强上了（靠老黑破纪录turnout），今年老婊子肯定
没戏。 |
|
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 32 Just look at the Turnouts this primary season, Dems are down 21% and
Republicans are up by something like 50+%, in addition Trump performs better
with independents. A lot of these polls are using weights that were for
2012, 2008. So as of right now, I think he will outperform these polls by a
rather large margin. |
|
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 33 其实，base都差不多，大选就是要看turnout。前两届，老黑打鸡血，奥黑就赢了。 |
|
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 34 Just look at the Turnouts this primary season, Dems are down 21% and
Republicans are up by something like 50+%, in addition Trump performs better
with independents. A lot of these polls are using weights that were for
2012, 2008. So as of right now, I think he will outperform these polls by a
rather large margin. |
|
i***a
发帖数: 4718 | 35 这个两边都会受影响。床铺在赌白人turnout很高。希拉里赌中间选民不想社会更分裂。 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 36 nope
very small turnout |
|
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 37 摇摆州选民结构改变没有那么严重。除了VA，估计都可以拿下来。大选要看turnout，
前两次老黑倾巢而出，奥黑不赢也难。 |
|
o**1
发帖数: 6383 | 38 https://wikileaks.org/dnc-emails/emailid/13830
花钱雇来抗议的 intern. 有点意思。
That was taken before the “protest” started when I was talking to Aaron.
From: Miranda, Luis Sent: Thursday, May 12, 2016 9:42 AM To: Helmstetter, TJ
; Regional Press Subject: RE: Tv coverage of protest great Yes, but going
forward, when our allies screw up and don't deliver bodies in time, we
either send all our interns out there or we stay away from it.. we don't
want to own a bad picture: https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/... 阅读全帖 |
|
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 39 也没什么好担心的，大选还是要看turnout率。老婊子花钱买rally人数，还想赢大选，
做梦吧。奥黑2012年能赢，也就是老黑倾巢而出，还有就是摇摆州投票欺诈。 |
|
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 40 看今天Virginia的民调，Virginia是我本人最不看好的摇摆州。所以，民调看看而已，
最终要看turnout率。 |
|
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 41 民调显示只有6%的美国人信任媒体。媒体越抹黑，大选时，川普支持者的turnout率越
高。 |
|
g******a
发帖数: 778 | 42 绝对是神迹。过了这个村就没这个店了。
共和党现在除了在堕胎同性恋这些无聊话题上跟民主党扯淡，其他已经完全投降左臂了
，包括支持非移穆斯林，对外武装干涉输出意识形态，对内滥发货币借新债还旧债
就因为老川跳出来揭开这些被PC高压的禁忌话题，触动了沉默的大多数，所以今年共和
党turnout才增加了60%
美国的最后一次机会了 |
|
p****n
发帖数: 402 | 43 poll基本不用看了，都是电话采访。受访人如果说支持trump，基本会有push back,迫
于压力不会说支持trump,特别是他大比分落后的情况下。
还是看捐款，rally实况来预测最后的turnout ratio。
美国很多传统企业现在六神无主，因为以前基本都有和Hillary以及Obama各种advisory
的直线联系，现在都在抱怨trump周围谁都没有，想套近乎也不行，说难道要去找
Ivanka??现在都在发动群众，看谁的子女认识Eric...lol
而且corporate都知道trump有很强的群众基础，经过brexit，基本不相信poll了。现在
的准备是，hillary上台大家都知道政策走向，trump如果上台估计会乱一阵。但其实都
在准备可能会有的shock -也就是trump当选的备案。如果真像poll预测的那样，大家不
会积极部署Plan B的。
刚刚又想了一下最近几天好多GOP叛变，有可能大家知道hillary现在比较危，趁火打劫
捞一个好deal。 |
|
d*******p
发帖数: 2525 | 44 说all lives matter的学生会被suspend 50天，你们应该想得到大众对电话poll的回答
会是怎么样吧。08，12，到处车上都是支持侯赛因的sticker,今年你看见有拉拉的吗？
我看见的几次都是hillary for prison 2016
poll对于turnout高的选举/公投会很不准，因为基数太小，所谓likely voters，根本
是把沉默大多数排除在外的，今年只要大家别呆在家里不投票，相信能把床铺选上去，
我在平常生活中就没听过任何一个人说过拉拉好话，不过文字狱太厉害，说床铺好话都
是要偷偷看周围，确保不被无关者听到，但就这样，我也听了很多次同事悄悄说要投床
铺 |
|
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 45 这是一个WI选民的留言：
Certain Judgment ✓יהוה • 4 hours ago
Prepare to lose, sucker! I know that my wife and I were not the only ones
who could not wait until August 9th to vote against you, and got their
ballots in early!
The Nehlen staffers told me yesterday that early voter turnout has been VERY
low, which is extremely good for Nehlen, and internal polls show support
for both Ryan and Nehlen is below 50%. Ryan's primary is the only contested
one in Kenosha county, w... 阅读全帖 |
|
g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 46 这是有关加州让非法移民办驾照和注册选民的新法案：
While critics of the New Motor Voter Act fear that undocumented people may
slip through the loopholes and get registered to vote, it's false to say
that California has made it legal for undocumented people to vote. In fact,
California Secretary of State Alex Padilla said that the new law is actually
more secure:
The way automatic registration works is relatively simple: Eligible
citizens are registered to vote when they show up at a Department of Motor
Vehicles offic... 阅读全帖 |
|
a****a
发帖数: 3905 | 47 不看 poll里D/R/l比例，光看各个成分里的支持度，C在D里的支持度有90左右，T在R里
有80，在I里领先。要稳赢，一个是R的turnout要上来，一个是党内支持度要提高。 |
|
r*********e
发帖数: 7733 | 48 这就是以前有人提过的大数据。
还有创纪录的和党primary turnout。 |
|
A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 49 这类人早就是预料之中的。好多观众太沉不住气了，也相信媒体炒作的什么90%选民已
经决定了自己选给谁，不去看看每届大选poll的变化曲线。首先，美国合法选民的投票
率就远远低于90%，最后turnout说话。其次，往年辩论都会有很大的swing,何况今年媒
体作弊，敲醒梦中人最直接有效的就是辩论。不说希拉里被媒体盖着的满身屎会被川普
面对面揪出来，就看她糟糕的健康状况怎么能蒙混的过去，川普现在已经提出来希拉里
的mental stability.辩论时候肯定会当面揭出来的 |
|
A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 50 这类人早就是预料之中的。好多观众太沉不住气了，也相信媒体炒作的什么90%选民已
经决定了自己选给谁，不去看看每届大选poll的变化曲线。首先，美国合法选民的投票
率就远远低于90%，最后turnout说话。其次，往年辩论都会有很大的swing,何况今年媒
体作弊，敲醒梦中人最直接有效的就是辩论。不说希拉里被媒体盖着的满身屎会被川普
面对面揪出来，就看她糟糕的健康状况怎么能蒙混的过去，川普现在已经提出来希拉里
的mental stability.辩论时候肯定会当面揭出来的 |
|
