C******y
发帖数: 3249 | 1 作为敌国的一部分，美国公民可以由美国武装力量直接处死。推测处死张是美国军方，
NSA，CIA 多方的联合行动。
这样的处死不需要任何审判，不需要对媒体公布细节，不需要承认或否认。
目前还不清楚处死的细节，有未经证实的消息说，张跳楼后，看到有两个戴着黑色墨镜
的亚裔从楼后门匆匆离去。
Lawyers for the Obama administration, arguing for their ability to kill an
American citizen without trial in Yemen, contended that the protection of US
citizenship was effectively removed by a key congressional act that blessed
a global war against al-Qaida.
Known as the Authorization to Use Military Force (AUMF), the broad and
controversial 2001 law playe... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 2 Washington (CNN) -- A federal appeals court has tossed out key provisions of
the sweeping health care reform bill championed by President Obama, setting
up a likely election-year showdown at the Supreme Court over the landmark
legislation.
A 2-1 panel of the 11th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals in Atlanta on Friday
found that the law's "individual mandate" section -- requiring nearly all
Americans to purchase health insurance by 2014 or face financial penalties -
- was an improper exercise of fede... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 3 by Ben Shapiro19 Oct 20150
The international left’s shoddy treatment of Israel continues, even as
Palestinian terrorists commit daily atrocities against Jewish civilians,
egged on by Palestinian leadership.
President Barack Obama’s administration continues to draw moral equivalence
between Israel and those who seek to murder Jews; the media continue to
treat Israel as the moral pariah even as it attempts to stop attacks on its
citizens; the international community continues to suggest that Israe... 阅读全帖 |
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I******I
发帖数: 14241 | 4 17个是bounded，还有50多unbounded |
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w********0
发帖数: 1211 | 5 见这个链接
http://www.bustle.com/articles/145907-is-the-louisiana-primary-
简而言之，就是at-large的那25张票，按比例分配的threshold是20%。对于没到
threshold的人，别的州一般就是把他们去掉，上threshold的人按相对比例分配，也就
是说分母得rescale到100%。可是这个LA州很奇葩，按原来实际拿到的比例分，这样没
到20%的人的票暂时不分给任何人，而是变成unbounded,delegate想投谁就投谁。
比如按目前的比例，trump 47.7%, cruz 23.5%, rubio 19.3%, kasich 3.1%
rubio,kasich都不到20%，按正常的rescale，trump和cruz应该2：1分配那25张，
trumpg该拿17张，cruz8张。但按这个奇葩规则，trump只有12张，cruz6张，剩下7张届
时 delegate可以想投谁就投谁,就好比民主党的super delgatel了。太无耻了！ |
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p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | 6 另一个可能是 unbound 的。
从另一个id 看到的。据说是 Convention, 只能由党内金鹰投票，普通党员是不能投票
的。
所以票数这么少。 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 7 MARCH
The Hunt for Double Agents
On Saturday morning, while the candidates were scattered across Ohio and
Florida, Illinois and Missouri, Cruz’s campaign was back in Iowa trying to
wring another victory out of the state that gave him the first win of the
primary season. After Iowa Republicans caucused on Feb. 1, diehards who
stuck around their precinct got the chance to elect a local delegate to the
county convention. It was those 1,681 precinct delegates who attended
conventions in each of Iowa... 阅读全帖 |
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x****d
发帖数: 2239 | 8 Here's How The Establishment Will Steal The GOP Nomination From Trump
--------------------------------------------------------------------
By Tyler Durden
The political establishment in America is terrified.
Donald Trump gets closer to securing the GOP nomination with each passing
month and his rivals on both sides of the aisle are in disbelief.
Worse - or “better” if you enjoy entertainment - Trump has seemingly given
up any attempt to be anything other than... well... than Donald Trump. He
rec... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******e
发帖数: 5818 | 9 Rubio 退了后，都变成unbound， 但Rubio 大概能控制有20%，其它80% 技术上变成所
谓民主党的 “super delegate”，
但要每个州，自己决定，州和州的规则都不一样，trump，cruz，kasich可以做工作争
取这些。 |
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a******d
发帖数: 191 | 10 100+ will be bound, can only be switched in the second round of contested
convention;
30+ will be unbound |
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s*********e
发帖数: 1814 | 11 这个算的不对。unbound的选票应该去掉，所以剩下的不到900，Trump得拿到58%左右 |
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s******t
发帖数: 926 | 12 宾州只有17票是WTA，剩下的都是unbounded |
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n******1
发帖数: 3756 | 13 嗯，刚看到，最只要信息是Kasich是在PA出生，长大，最近的民调升的快，不得不防，
丢掉一个对trump的目标影响很大，不过pa很多unbounded |
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s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 14 ND比较奇葩。只是选出25个delegates, who are fully unbound.到convention上去投
票。
所以才会有那个要不要disclose votes的讨论。 |
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V*****2
发帖数: 7930 | 15 Here’s the consolation, however. Unlike elected delegates, superdelegates
are unbound to any candidate even on the first ballot. They can switch
whenever they like, and some of them probably will switch to Sanders if he
extends his winning streak into more diverse states and eventually appears
to have more of a mandate than Clinton among Democratic voters.
这超级代表人，不光一票顶1万票，还能任何时候做改变。这美国的民主自由平等，在
民主党里，就是构思。 |
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A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 16 Neocon们不知道自己的斤两，即使open convention,候选人也有机会发言。床铺只要点
几个unbounded delegates的名就行了：a lot of people here will lose your jobs
if this thing goes to the second round.
虽然媒体在逼逼，但是super pac在WI两个星期集中烧钱的机会，他们烧得钱也比FL少
多了。大部分金主已经投降，就剩下极少数垂死挣扎了。Cruz周二之后牛逼吹上天，至
今没拿到什么有分量的endorsement，他的大部分参议院同行不表态就已经说明最后投
票时候他们会不会出来跟床铺撕破脸了。 |
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 17 http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/04/cruz_delegate_wrang
In North Dakota last weekend and Colorado this weekend, Cruz's team is out-
hustling and outmanuevering Donald Trump, probably picking up a majority of
unbound and "uncommitted" delegates in both states.
Manafort is a seasoned pro, but it will take him a few weeks to get
organized. Meanwhile, Cruz continues to play the long game, picking off a
delegate here, a delegate there in states won by Trump, and aggressively
going after dele... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 18 At the district and state GOP conventions in Colorado in April, Ted Cruz won
30 delegates who pledged their support to him on their intent-to-run forms,
while four others, who were elected as uncommitted delegates, verbally
pledged their support for Cruz.
In August 2015, the Colorado GOP cancelled its presidential preference poll,
which was scheduled to coincide with the Republican caucuses on March 1,
2016. According to The Denver Post, the Republican executive committee "
voted to cancel the t... 阅读全帖 |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 19 sweep NY , and then wins PA, Trump will win nomination.
PA's 54 unbound delegates actually very likely to be bound to primary
results, because it is also elected on the primary. With that 54 delegates,
and a sweep in NY, Trump crosses 1237.
|
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 20 There won't be a contested convention.
NBC article:
Pennsylvania Could be Key for Trump to Stop a Contested Convention |
|
发帖数: 1 | 21 赞PA. 这才是真正的民选。
convention |
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 22 Trump is targeting the unbounded PA delegates. |
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发帖数: 1 | 23 Oregon共和党做得比Colorado共和党好一百倍。Oregon共和党新规则，三个
superdelegates不得随意挑选候选人，要跟primary投票结果走。虽然只有三个
delegate，但向1237冲刺三个也难能可贵。
不仅primary要这样，contested convention也要跟民意走。Oregon共和党，好样的！
Oregon Republican Party reins in superdelegates' power to pick their own
presidential candidates
Oregon's Republican Party has changed its rules to eliminate superdelegates,
meaning more delegates could go to the winner of the state's May 17 primary.
Until now, the state party's top three leaders were able to support any
candid... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 24 BREAKING: GOP Makes Major Nomination Announcement – Things Are About to Get
MESSY
13 Apr, 2016 by Sierra Marlee
Candidates and supporters alike have been focused on the number 1237, the
number of delegates a candidate needs to clinch the nomination. But a new
announcement from the RNC may change everything.
From Western Journalism:
For Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, something magical
just happened to his magic number.
For weeks, Trump and his rivals have been fixated on ... 阅读全帖 |
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A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 25 这人很实在，他说的是群众和相关政客能承受的心理预期，类似股票突破800,1000之类
。1200,以上还不提名床铺肯定革命了。他说的1100是个很靠谱的bar.超过1100的话那
些freed和unbound就得在开会之前纷纷表态我尊重选民意见。床铺如果到不了1000，那
就等于跟Cruz差距很小，确实也没底气说必须是自己。 |
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a*****e
发帖数: 146 | 26 就是从150多个里选54个人来代表那些delegate呀。不过他们都是unbound的理论上随便
投他们支持的。不过现在的情况是大部分要支持选区winner，明确表示支持哪个候选人
的也是老床优势。比较fishy是那20%undecided，不知道是不是憋着坏但是不敢说 |
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t***h
发帖数: 2924 | 27 lying ted这两天都在PA， 搞unbound delegates. |
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A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 28 别信1237的媒体扯淡。他要是拿到1200那些unbounded delegates里边有些人就得出来
支持他了，否则命都难保，尤其是犹他那些傻逼 |
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A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 29 前几天田纳西那个内部人士说的靠谱，床铺只要过了1100的心理分界线，那100多个RNC
的unbounded和别的候选人放出来那两百来个就第一轮把Trump推过去了。否则好些人自
己乌纱帽保不住了。本来好多当权派指望的是挡住第一轮，让Ryan第二轮出来摘果子，
现在Ryan不出来，他们根本没法跟自己选区的老百姓交待。 |
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c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 30 你讲的有道理，但是1237 outright before convention是不太可能的了。
但是只要拿到1200， 哪怕是1175以上，unbounded delegates还是会在first ballot把
老床送过1237的。 |
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s****u
发帖数: 1433 | 31 我问个问题，这些UNBOUND票是初选就定呢，还是到CONVENTION再定？
如果初选TED第三名，而那些DELIGATE把票给了TED，那还不得闹翻了天啊。 |
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c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 32 Cruz在bluffing.
PA的规则是，state wide winner拿17票，这些是at large的，赢了primary就拿到了，
这个老床是没问题的。
PA特别的地方是18个选区共54票是unbounded的。理论上那些delegate是可以在
convention上任意发挥的。
但是！PA的delegate不是党委指定的，而是和总统候选人一起在primary上民选的。而
且delegate candidates在ballot上要指明他们支持哪一个总统候选人的。
所以PA的delegate是会反应民意的。Cruz在做梦！ |
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V**3
发帖数: 12756 | 33 delegate candidates在ballot上要指明他们支持哪一个总统候选人
不是unbound的么？ |
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a******n
发帖数: 202 | 34 其实，lying Ted的伎俩就是收买delegates，给了好处以后让他们pledge，从而在第
二轮unbound投票时选他。Trump是用自己的钱不愿意这么做。那些说trump不懂rule的
人根本不理解一个做房地产开发的大佬怎么会不知道读fine print。林宝也不相信
Trump不懂，而是Trump利用科州没有经过选民投票的事实来证明这是个rigged system
，从而激起更多的民众投票给他。 四两拨千斤现在看来确实收到了效。 |
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s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 35 所以Trump的形势并不乐观。
今早Foxnews的projection我感觉还是比较靠谱的：Trump will be somewhere around
1150, assuming he wins 100/172 in CA. If he can flip IN, he'll be really
close to 1237.
我的感觉是，如果Trump能够超过1150，应该能够secure the nomination on the 1st
ballot. 原因很简单：现在有超过170的unbound delegates.这些人里面很多anti
Trump是没错，但应该也有很多有良心的。这就看Manafort的功力了。
另外，不知道我的理解对不对：Lyin' Ted在CO和WY拿到的delegates, 并不是legally
bound, 而是pledged delegates. 所以也不是铁板一块。有些人反水，不是不无可能。 |
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f******k
发帖数: 5329 | 36 赞“不是不无可能”，你知道你在说什么么？
[在 smartagent (美国已死，有事烧纸) 的大作中提到：]
:所以Trump的形势并不乐观。
:今早Foxnews的projection我感觉还是比较靠谱的：Trump will be somewhere around
1150, assuming he wins 100/172 in CA. If he can flip IN, he'll be
really
:close to 1237.
:我的感觉是，如果Trump能够超过1150，应该能够secure the nomination on the 1st
ballot. 原因很简单：现在有超过170的unbound delegates.这些人里面很多anti
:Trump是没错，但应该也有很多有良心的。这就看Manafort的功力了。
:另外，不知道我的理解对不对：Lyin' Ted在CO和WY拿到的delegates, 并不是
legally bound, 而是pledged delegates. 所以也不是铁板一块。有些人反水，不是不
无可能。-- |
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t***h
发帖数: 2924 | 37 rubio, carlson等人以前得到的delegates, 在第一轮投票只能投给rubio, carlson吗
，还是可以因为他们退出选举就变成unbound而自由投? |
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 38 If he makes these numbers, Trump would finish the primary season with at
least 1,240 delegates – over the magic number. Obviously, this would be a
perilous path with little margin for error. A loss in Indiana, for instance,
would knock his final number well under 1,237. That said, a stronger win in
California than we’re penciling in here could push him well past 1,237.
More importantly, this does not include the unbound delegates from
Pennsylvania. Again, they’ll be free to change their minds al... 阅读全帖 |
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H***l
发帖数: 1936 | 39 最可能的结果就是拿不到1237，但只差几十，不到一百，然后Trump展示他dealmaker的
本事，从一百多unbounded代表中争取到足够的票补上差额。头一轮投票就结束战斗。
在这个过程中，如何跟Lying Ted斗智斗勇，将会是本年最吸引眼球的大戏。
instance,
in |
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s******r
发帖数: 5309 | 40 疮轮赶紧打恐吓电话去吧。
Curly Haugland, a longstanding RNC official and an unbound delegate from
North Dakota who will be on the convention rules committee in July, told
CNBC that attaining 1,237 during the primaries does not secure the
nomination.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/22/go-ahead-donald-get-1237-it-wont |
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c*******e
发帖数: 5818 | 41 这些都是得等第二轮，现在pa 的 54个 第一轮就inbound 的对trump 更重要，还200左
右unbound的。
trump几乎就靠第一轮，过了就过了，要是不过，broker convention，无论谁，gop ge
必输无疑。
23
,
populists |
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H***l
发帖数: 1936 | 42 不是新理论。
床铺直接拿1237很难，要想拿提名，必须尽量接近这个数，然后在党代会赢unbound
delegates补上差额。差得越远，越难在第一轮胜出。如果第一轮没拿到1237，要投第
二轮，铁定干不过Cruz |
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k********0
发帖数: 585 | 43 难道不是还有FIRST BALLOT？老创的目标是，尽量直接１２３７，如果不成，就看
UNBOUND DELEGATES FROM PA，如果不成，就在FIRST BALLOT成DEAL。在SECOND BALLOT
之前有很
大机会结束战斗。 |
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s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 44 能拿到1237 fully-bound delegates.
但看这星期的情况，各方面的口风，我倒是觉得first ballot搞定基本没问题，靠
unbound delegates. |
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H***l
发帖数: 1936 | 46 这不是新闻。
今天床铺横扫五个州是意料之中的事。 但即使如此， 他在中西部还是斗不过Lyin'
Ted。
最有可能的结果就是拿不到1237，但只差几十，然后Trump必须展示他dealmaker的本事
，从一百多unbound delegate中争取到足够的票补上差额。头一轮投票就结束战斗。因
为如果第一轮没拿到1237，要投第二轮，铁定干不过擅长偷票的Cruz。
所以最关键的就是一周以后的印第安纳。拿下了，就有可能最后超过1200， deal就好
谈。如果输了，而且要是最后到不了1150，就难了。
性！ |
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t*c
发帖数: 8291 | 47 今天可能会大胜，除了马里兰之外，全部超过50%。 滨州的unbound delegate估计3/4
会属于trump阵营。 |
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H***l
发帖数: 1936 | 48 滨州的unbound delegate估计3/4会属于trump阵营？
Lying Ted同意了吗？
4 |
|
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t***h
发帖数: 2924 | 50 没决定的大概是裤子粉装的.但是67%是归于trump的.那些说选得胜者的,就是投给trump
的. |
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