m**m
发帖数: 5500 | 1 its Mar 375call is $1.14, 345 put is $2.29. Why is put's implied volatility
much higher? does it make sense considering AAPL is gaining uptrend momentum
? Thanks. |
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l**r
发帖数: 9 | 2 Recent high: 25.xx
10 wks ma: 22.xx
50 wks ma:14.xx
200 wks ma:17.xx
If it continues drop, it'll reach (?) before uptrend:
(a) abound 17
(b) 14-17
(c) around 14
(d) below 14
Please offer your thoughts here. |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 3 As soon as current uptrend breaks, LVS is a short
with downside target currently estimated at
39.05 - 2.49 = 36.5 (approx.)
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
LVS, 20110323, 39.0500, -2.4924, -6.4 Peaking Soon
LVS, 20110322, 38.1400, -1.1273, -3.0
LVS, 20110321, 38.8000, -1.7672, -4.6
LVS, 20110318, 36.2900, 0.4425, 1.2
LVS, 20110317, 37.2000, 0.1867, 0.5
LVS, 20110316, 36.9800, 1.0599, 2.9 BUY |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 4 【 以下文字转载自 TraderSuccess 俱乐部 】
发信人: MB80528 (肥猫(Contrarian)[食MM而肥]), 信区: TraderSuccess
标 题: Re: LVS: 两阳夹一阴? (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Mar 25 02:56:42 2011, 美东)
Short-squeeze detected. Downside target is adjusted
upward to about $39, as shown in the latest forecast
below: (Sell/short on break of uptrend for -6% move)
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
LVS, 20110324, 41.9900, -2.7971, -6.7
LVS, 20110323, 39.0500, -2.4924, -6.4
LVS, 20110322, 38.1400, -1... 阅读全帖 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 5 【 以下文字转载自 TraderSuccess 俱乐部 】
发信人: MB80528 (肥猫(Contrarian)[食MM而肥]), 信区: TraderSuccess
标 题: Re: Is MCP Over-Extended? (at > $50)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Mar 25 03:00:48 2011, 美东)
Continued short-squeeze detected. However, stock
remains bearish with downside target reduced to
55.62 - 6.03 = 49.6 (approx)
Sell/short only upon uptrend line break.
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
MCP, 20110324, 55.6200, -6.0371, -10.9
MCP, 20110323, 51.4000, -4.3230, -8.4
MCP, ... 阅读全帖 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 6 【 以下文字转载自 TraderSuccess 俱乐部 】
发信人: MB80528 (肥猫(Contrarian)[食MM而肥]), 信区: TraderSuccess
标 题: Re: 最新卖空机会 -- 红帽 （RHT) 今天的高峰价 47+ 现在是 46.85
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Mar 25 03:12:29 2011, 美东)
..........................
Today's short-squeeze is mostly offset by an increase
in downside, making RHT an even more attractive short
once the uptrend line breaks.
Downside target: 47.25 - 5.19 = 42 (approx.)
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
RHT, 20110324, 47.2500, -5.1930, -11.0
RHT, ... 阅读全帖 |
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d********0
发帖数: 5142 | 7 Yes I am one of them ,
But do you think it was related to japan ?
That affects market to uptrend?
看空的 |
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n**8
发帖数: 123 | 8 Usually that's an indicator for an uptrend.
Believe or not, it's your choice. |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 9 【 以下文字转载自 TraderSuccess 俱乐部 】
发信人: MB80528 (肥猫(Contrarian)[食MM而肥]), 信区: TraderSuccess
标 题: Stocks Being Tracked For Potential Downside
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Mar 28 12:48:25 2011, 美东)
Need to use uptrend line to help trigger and
pinpoint price peak:
RHT, 20110325, 46.5600, -4.9484, -10.6
MELI, 20110325, 74.2000, -5.0402, -6.8
CRM, 20110325, 128.0000, -5.2334, -4.1
FFIV, 20110325, 95.6700, -5.2341, -5.5
CMG, 20110325, 256.2400, -5.5341, -2.2
BWEL... 阅读全帖 |
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k****n
发帖数: 1334 | 10 同学。。
无论怎样你都不能all in啊
AMR以现在的经济环境看，中长期不会狠好
关键是短期有向下的momentum，你all in也all in一个在uptrend的行不 |
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t****n
发帖数: 10724 | 11 it's the beginnig of uptrend. Expect to see $155 this week. |
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H********i
发帖数: 699 | 12 Is Soros Right to Get Out of Gold?
Major players, including George Soros, are reportedly pulling back from gold
and silver has recorded yet another collapse.
The Federal Reserve remains dovish, the US macroeconomic picture looks shaky
, but gold has still fallen back, so should investors stick with precious
metals?
The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday morning that George Soros'
eponymous fund has been easing itself out of the yellow metal and is also
getting out of silver (Exchange: XAG=... 阅读全帖 |
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g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 13 Paulson 没有SLV吧？!
Paulson GLD建仓早，现在跌得也不算多。俺mastress说法，uptrend intact. |
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C****a
发帖数: 1639 | 14
I stay cautiously bullish, after all, the uptrend is still intact.
But I guess we would see a breakdown on Monday. a breakdown, not a meltdown
, hehe
Anyway, I doubled TLT yesterday, but did not sell any longs. |
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b*****l
发帖数: 161 | 15 （3）. 初级站友: 长线进阶
资金: $50k-$100k (March 2011-current)
BKM 0.4: IBD选股, 波段操作
成果: TBD
Risk Mitigation: active pattern analysis, only trade in uptrend, take profit
regularly and stop loss
阅读材料:
1. Japanese Candle Stick Charting Techniques: Steve Nison
2. Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets, John Murphy
3. 庄家克星 :邵道明 （温州老乡!）
短线操作熟练以后, 开始琢磨finalize自己的手法，准备做长线稳定收益。之前读
O’NEIL的书不得其道，原因是操作上没法入手。象IBD50&100这么人气旺盛的股票，等
到EMA10-50相交的时候，只怕是曲终人散了。准备修订我的BKM0.3。
eIBD每天还读着，看到好的TICKER就展... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****l
发帖数: 161 | 16 谢谢小母牛双黄包，今天一气写完三集了。欢迎大家指导，讨论，图例在跟贴上。
(1): 新手上路
资金: $4k-$10k (Oct. 2009 – Nov. 2010)
BKM 0.1: 宁可错过, 不可错了；买低卖高, 有赚就好
Risk Mitigation: Buy only Blue Chip stock and Index ETF
成果: 20多笔trades ，100% profitable ,平均每笔trade收益 5.54%, Overall
gain > 50%
Tickers: INTC, SCHA, IJK
阅读材料:
1. 不哭教条 1-6: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t2/Stock/31817193.html
2. The intelligent Investor by Graham
首先是迈出第一步，对我来说有点困难： 不习惯做自己每把握的事；也没有看到
谁炒股一夜暴富的”励志”故事。工作第一年还很忙，虽然有心投入股市，却没有时间
迈出第一步。 说来算是福气，躲过了2008年的market ... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****l
发帖数: 161 | 17 （3）. 初级站友: 长线进阶
资金: $50k-$100k (March 2011-current)
BKM 0.4: IBD选股, 波段操作
成果: TBD
Risk Mitigation: active pattern analysis, only trade in uptrend, take profit
regularly and stop loss
阅读材料:
1. Japanese Candle Stick Charting Techniques: Steve Nison
2. Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets, John Murphy
3. 庄家克星 :邵道明 （温州老乡!）
短线操作熟练以后, 开始琢磨finalize自己的手法，准备做长线稳定收益。之前读
O’NEIL的书不得其道，原因是操作上没法入手。象IBD50&100这么人气旺盛的股票，等
到EMA10-50相交的时候，只怕是曲终人散了。准备修订我的BKM0.3。
eIBD每天还读着，看到好的TICKER就展... 阅读全帖 |
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w******s
发帖数: 16209 | 18 金属走好。USD已经breakdown 了uptrend 了吧？就一小支撑说破就破了。 |
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Z****g
发帖数: 13731 | 19 the damage was done, it takes time to heal, simple as that.
In comparison, Gold may get back to uptrend sooner. |
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f****s
发帖数: 315 | 20 good company taking a certain amount of market shares.. was in a great
uptrend in 2009, but experienced an entire down year in 2010... I am afraid
of serveral big gap down...
It seems to break out a long term based bottom.. Chart looks good. |
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H******e
发帖数: 4682 | 21 $1.31 now.
Does heat go uptrend now? |
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f**********8
发帖数: 326 | 22 Out of SINA at 100.5 since volume is contracting. It seems that SINA is
waiting for another uptrend conformation. Better to bank some coins and stay
cash. Not being greedy.Waiting for SINA to Break 102, then I would consider
to get in. |
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w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 23 你咬字眼的原因可能来自于一种误解, 就是右侧一定赚，
因为是马后炮看到低点才说那是右侧，其实相反，
右侧追求的不是利润最大化，而是风险最小化。
简单一点说,从你下单的习惯看,buy limit, sell limit order都是左侧，
因为你在猜底和顶,buy stop 和sell stop都是右侧，
所谓的涨要涨到他不动开始下跌，跌要跌不动开始上涨。
Buy stop就是买高不买低，因为你没办法判断是不是最低，
Sell stop就是卖低不卖高，因为你没办法判断是不是最高。
其实trailing stop就最好的体验这一点了。
不过这里有个前提，是trend market.如果是range market
怎么做都容易失去利润甚至两面抽，至于怎么判断是否trend,
又回到上面那个话题了。还有一点非常非常重要的是，你一定要
明白并执行自己的交易周期，因为日线的down trend有可能是30
分钟图的uptrend。 |
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o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 24 先说说目前的形势，QE2这个月底就结束了，FED暂时承诺不会有QE3。如果不立即出现
QE3的结果就是股市下跌，金银不上不下。当股市下跌20%以上，FED自然还是会说这样
下去不是办法，还是只有量化宽松，再来一剂吗啡才能缓解痛苦，于是换个名称挂羊头
卖狗肉。正如教授预测，"QE3"会在金秋10月出来，这个偶表示十分赞同。
会有QE在我来看本来就没有悬念，因此不是这里的重点。接下来的QE和以前的QE会有几
个方面的不同
1. 投资者的sentiment和三年前完全不同了，99年Jim Rogers看好commodities，08年
Peter Schiff说金融股是toxic的时候，很多人都觉得他们是nuts。去amazon看看，08
年前出来的投资方面的书籍，谈commodities的是少数，说美元崩溃的更是少数。可是
现在你去看，满眼都是这种书。这代表的意思就是相当多的人和这个板上的人想法都一
样，那就是美元贬值是将来10年投资的主线，这已经是old idea了。如果现在才意识到
的话，那代表可能只能catch剩下50%一下的uptrend了。
2. QE1使股市上涨的幅度大于QE2... 阅读全帖 |
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w******s
发帖数: 16209 | 25 uptrend capital。。
是yahoo的那个么？ |
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e***z
发帖数: 7126 | 26 呵呵。 这么简单的道路可乐竟然没弄明白
让我对她的uptrend capital 产生了巨大的怀疑。呵呵 |
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w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 27 //幸福的家庭都是一样的，不幸的各有各的不幸。
你说的这些都各有其FA上的原因。一直都是在downtrend的，
中概这一轮之前都是在uptrend的。
现在其实讨伐最厉害的是那些Reverse Merge的小中概。
我觉得跟下面那些最大的不同是，你说的那些是多杀多，而小中概
完全是空杀多。
其实如果有些中概是被错杀的(大中概，正规IPO上来的),
长远看，现在是个好deal.这也是我那个时间机器文章的出发点。 |
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s*********8
发帖数: 901 | 28 The China uptrend is cracking.
That's bad news for some of China's highest-flying momentum stocks,
including Internet companies like Baidu, Sina, and Sohu.
The latest data from the China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC)
shows total Internet users in China reached over 457 million at the end of
2010, a 19% growth rate over the past year…
That's huge in comparison to the stagnant U.S. market. But it's down from a
30% growth rate a year ago.
Even worse for China's online giants, the majo... 阅读全帖 |
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s*****y
发帖数: 466 | 29 The official statement from DOL.
It seems that we do not need to worry about this "Black Friday" any more...
If tomorrow's unemployment data is not that bad, the uptrend may be still
kept, though the momentum may not be that strong. |
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s***l
发帖数: 149 | 35 have been at bottom for more than a month
lowest price since 09
uptrend in index
no huge obstacle in the future
TAwise, just breaked and retested 13days line,
short term TA, 13 line crossed above 50 line after testing 200 line
next big catalyst for the price: Fed allows dividend hike |
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b*******e
发帖数: 24532 | 36 it is still in uptrend :) |
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w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 37 其实如果你打开现在的日线图，没有人告诉你是日线图，
而跟你说是15分钟图/30分钟图，你会怎么操作?
明明就是Uptrend intact嘛
所以我反复说，一定要明白你自己的操作周期。 |
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w******s
发帖数: 16209 | 38 intraday uptrend 破了呀
应该可以多hold？
呵呵 |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 39 假设uptrend继续的话，119是一个入点。下一个是116。 |
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l**********o
发帖数: 9952 | 40 帮主你太执着了。。。。
我看 correction + uptrend |
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D****6
发帖数: 3429 | 41 if it formed another hammer today then I think uptrend is confirmed |
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w****l
发帖数: 6122 | 42 the volume of VXX and TVIX has reached to near their highest levels, usually
it is a capitulation sign for VIX, which means the uptrend will be reversed
.
unless there will be a huge market crash, it is time to consider to unload
your VXX,or maybe some of your VXX.
But if you like to read charts, you can keep your VXX until no daily closed
high of VXX is made. |
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d*******r
发帖数: 301 | 43 anywhere from 300 to 500
Reason : this is the last chance wallstreet can send the "warning sign" to
congress
Put pressure for politics over the weekend.
Next week if no positive news over the wekend continue huge drops
However , damage is already done
AAA to AA certainly will happen
Sell off certainly will happen regardless passs or not
Back uptrend week later ..
Bond down
Dollar down
Interest potentially will up |
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i*u
发帖数: 299 | 44 对，你说的没错，TA第一原则，never traded against the trend。
但，现在的整体是个uptrend（09-present），呵呵。 |
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V********n
发帖数: 3061 | 45 good job, buddy!
market neutral的pair trading这么成熟的概念肯定没搞头，能做的机会早被大机构做
掉了，剩下的盈利率可能还不如买个公寓去出租赚的钱多。
你做牛股的alpha，take点儿risk，收益不会差。如果是随便一个股票的话，这个alpha的
volatility其实也不好控制，上够margin的话，可能等价于直接炒一个新的股票一样，波动
性差不了多少。可是如果能够精心选择股票的话，就会好很多，过滤是市场风险之后，那个
alpha的Uptrend可能会相当滴明显。 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 46 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
发信人: MB80528 (肥猫(Contrarian)[食MM而肥]), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: Re: SPY 的最新预测，包括其它八千个股票的最新预测。 (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Aug 12 18:41:10 2011, 美东)
....................
预测一般是会早一点，甚至早一两天。
可以分批进出，或用 TrendLine 补助。
Uptrend Line 一破，即下跌的开始。
而下跌量就如预测或稍微更低。 |
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a******1
发帖数: 4654 | 47 uptrend is consolidated! |
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k*********l
发帖数: 1218 | 48 这波从低点起来的uptrend现在还没有破
现在可继续shoot上去，也可以跌，但是不会大跌（250点以上） |
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Z****g
发帖数: 13731 | 49 shorting into the uptrend will easily get burned badly. Don't do that. |
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u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 50 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
wavelets (thinking loud) 于 (Fri Jun 10 22:07:24 2011, 美东) 提到:
不明白，求解释。
比如捞底，
没反弹就进场就是左X么？
反弹后再找进场就是右X么？
右X比较容易保护和设立stop？
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
alundut (alun) 于 (Fri Jun 10 22:10:16 2011, 美东) 提到:
搬个椅子等着。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
hobohobo (面壁) 于 (Fri Jun 10 22:10:37 2011, 美东) 提到:
左侧：指在DJ下跌的末端，底部还没有完全探明时，分仓买入，右侧：DJ的均线系统修
复完成，走出多头排列后，再选择股票买入。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
hobohobo (面壁) 于 (Fri Jun 10... 阅读全帖 |
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