c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 1 Simon Rabinovitch, China to Take Shot at Aircraft Duopoly; Aerospace;
Support for local manufacturing; Plan upgrade follows Train crash. Financial
Times, Aug 5, 2011.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f0aab712
-be81-11e0-ab21-00144feabdc0.html
Quote:
"High-speed rail was also in that category [the seven-industry plan].
However, the Shanghai Securities News said aircraft would be 'the most
important part' of high-end equipment manufacturing and made no mention of
high-speed rail.
"In the wake of July’s rail disaster, passengers have reported that first-
class carriages on the new bullet train line between Beijing and Shanghai
have been nearly empty, while airline tickets between the two cities have
been in high demand.
"China’s aircraft ambitions could use an extra boost, having come up short
so far. Its first passenger aircraft, the Comac ARJ21 regional jet,
completed its maiden flight in 2008, three years behind schedule. Deliveries
to customers were further delayed last year when the aircraft’s wing broke
during ground-based testing.
C919 is "[s]till in development * * * [but] Bradley Perrett, a Chinese
aerospace expert at Aviation Week, said that the C919 contained advanced
technology, much of it foreign-made, but that performance was 'not likely to
be optimal' because of Comac’s inexperience as a manufacturer.
Note:
(a) Shanghai Securities News 上海证券报电子版中国证券网
www.cnstock.com
(b) In print there is a side bar (titled "Magnificent seven industries on
the horizon") that has another URL online.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a829dc52-be86-11e0-ab21-00144feabdc0.
--------------------------------Separately
(1) Josh Chin, Latest Black-Eye for China Railways Ministry: Dubious
Statistics. China Real Time, Aug 2, 2011
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2011/08/02
/latest-black-eye-for-china-railways-ministry-dubious-statistics/
(China's Ministry of Railways released statistics Monday (Aug 1), showing
that between its public launch on June 30 and the end of July, Beijing-
Shanghai high-speed rail line "ran at 107% of capacity"--"better-than-
perfect ridership rate"--though "[a]ccounts from passengers suggest China’s
high-speed trains, many of which were struggling to fill seats before the [
July 23 Wenzhou] accident, have been running half-empty in recent days.")
(2) Dinny McMahon, Crash Spotlights China's Train Crisis; The Railways
Ministry, whose products Beijing hoped to export globally, now may need a
bailout. Wall Street Journal, Aug 2, 2011.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405311
1904292504576481800484601640.html
Quote:
"The railways' debt woes * * * could also call into question the economics—
and not just the safety standards—of an industry China had hoped would
become a significant global export. The July 23 collision * * * has likely
weakened the clout of the formerly powerful Railways Ministry—the only
Chinese government agency other than the Finance Ministry allowed to issue
bonds—both within the government and with investors.
"The Railways Ministry's debts have ballooned in recent years. At the end of
the first quarter its obligations totaled 1.98 trillion yuan ($307 billion)
, about 5% of China's gross domestic product, up from about 2% in 2007. In a
prospectus issued July 14 for a planned bond issue, the Railways Ministry
disclosed that its operating costs in the first quarter exceeded its
operating revenue by 3.8 billion yuan * * * 'There is no evidence that
operating revenues can grow significantly faster than operating costs,' said
[Standard Chartered economist Stephen] Green. 'Indeed the evidence at
present suggests the opposite may be true.'
(3) Jason Dean and Jeremy Page, Trouble on the China Express; The wreck of a
high-speed train has enraged the Chinese public and focused attention on
the corruption and corner-cutting behind the country’s breakneck economic
growth. Wall Street Journal, July 30, 2011.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405
3111904800304576474373989319028.html
Paragraphs 3 to 9 inclusive:
"Many Chinese recognized that this was not just a train wreck but a
collision between China’s past and future, between its ambitions and
limitations, and between the necessity of rapid economic growth and the
inability of a political system to change.
"And like any major event in this country of endless over-interpretation,
there has been a chain reaction, in Beijing and beyond, whose consequences
defy the divination of even the most astute China watcher. As a train
carriage dangled perilously over the edge of a damaged track, the fate of
passengers, of politicians, of policies, of visions and of vanities hung in
the balance.
"The past week might be compared to similar events at the start of the 20th
century, when China’s weak and corrupt imperial court made a belated bid to
transform the country into a modern, industrialized power. Its key gambit
was to create a national rail network, using foreign loans.
"Beijing’s attempt to nationalize the few local railways was met, however,
with angry resistance. Investors in the merchant class erupted into riots,
and the newly emerging modern Chinese press helped to spur the violence. The
upheaval contributed to the downfall of the Qing dynasty, a century ago.
"The current crisis over China’s high-speed rail network shows no sign of
directly threatening the current regime. But it has provoked an online media
storm, driven by China’s new middle class, and highlighted the weaknesses
of China’s current leadership, whose rampant corruption and reflexive
secrecy could undermine its rule in the long term.
"Not unlike a century ago, faith in the central government is eroding
rapidly—a deeply troubling parallel for the country’s ruling Communists.
Party leaders are anxious to avoid the fate of Chinese emperors who were
traditionally deemed to have lost the 'mandate of heaven'—the divine right
to rule—in times of national crisis.
"China’s high-speed rail system is an apt metaphor for the country’s
hurtling economy over the past decade: a colossal investment project, born
of the state, steeped in corruption, built for maximum velocity, and imposed
paternalistically on a public that is at once amazed and skeptical. The
rail system has married foreign technology with national ambition in a
network billed as the biggest and most advanced in the world, in a country
whose per capita income ranks below that of Jamaica.
Note:
(a) There is no need to read the rest.
(b) Xinhai Revolution
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinhai_Revolution
Quote from section 4 Wuchang Uprising:
"By the time Wuchang Uprising began, more than 5,000 soldiers had joined
these two organizations [Literature Society 文學社 and Gong Jin Hui 共進會]
—one third of all the troops in the local army units.
"On May 9, 1911 the Qing Government implemented several policies regarding
nationalization of the railroads. The government also announced its plan to
nationalize the Yuehan Railway 粵漢鐵路 and Chunhan Railway 川漢鐵路, which
had been built with private funds. This proposal angered the people of Hubei
, Hunan, Sichuan, and Guangdong. To protect the railroads from seizure, they
launched a movement, which was particularly active in Sichuan.
"On June 17, civilian organizations in Sichuan established the 'Sichuan
Railroad Protection Society' 四川保路同志會 and elected the head of the
local assembly 四川諮議局, Pu Dianjun 蒲殿俊, as the president of the
Society, and his assistant, Ro Run 羅綸, as the vice president. These two
men had notices posted, made speeches at various locales, and even went to
Beijing to protest. From August 5 to September, these civilians held several
demonstrations and strikes. On September 7, the Qing Governor of Sichuan
Zhao Erfeng 四川總督趙爾豐 arrested the leader of the Railroad Protection
Society, and shut down the corporation and the Society. The result of this
move was a large demonstration at the Governor's office. Governor Zhao
ordered soldiers to quell the protest; as a result, 30 civilians were killed
. On September 8, the members of the Society along with the local Ge Lao Hui
哥老會 and Tongmenghui organized an uprising and besieged the provincial
capital. The nearby counties followed the uprising soon after, and the total
number of participants grew to 200,000. On September 25, Wu Yuzhang 吳玉章,
Wang Tianjie 王天傑, and other members of Tongmenghui led another
successful uprising in Rong county 榮縣. Upon realizing that Chengdu was
besieged as a result of the mass uprising, the Qing Government became
alarmed and immediately ordered Duan Fang [渝漢鐵路督辦] 端方 to suppress
the uprising in the province of Sichuan using New Army units that were
stationed in the province of Hubei.
"When Duan Fang led Hubei's New Army units into Sichuan in order to suppress
the uprisings of the Railroad Movement, Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei
province, was left virtually defenseless. The revolutionaries decided that
this was the perfect opportunity for an uprising. The troops remaining in
Wuhan could be relied upon to be sympathetic to the revolution |
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