p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 1 by pattaya and CO
Department of Visa Bulletin, Mitbbs University
Introduction
This study is to predicate the VB for EB2CI in the next few months based on the simple calculation.
MY prediction for EB2IC is based on the average 485 numbers on 2007/10, 2007/11 and 2007/12 . My prediction for other categories is based on the real number in 2010 and 2011.
I would not do calculation on EB3 as this study is specifically for EB2IC.
I believe this number can reflect and match the real number.
Materials and methods
Projected demand until 2010/12 was calculated as below.
Rule 1: The average demand in each category (EB2I and EB2C) is the average 485 number from 2007/10 to 2007/12. The demand for other categories (EB1 and EB2Row) is based on the real number in 2010 and 2011.
Rule 2: EB4 and Eb5 can’t see any demand from the inventory. So we
arbitrarily allocate 1000 to each category. (Correct me if wrong).
Rule 3: 2008 demand is A X 12; 2009 demand is A X 12 X 0.8; 2010 demand is A X 12
Rule 4: Total demand is the sum of 485 numbers among these three years + old inventory – 2008 published inventory (as the data is due on Jan 12, 2012).
Projected visa supply for FY2012 was estimated according to the visa numbers in each category and possible spill over in each fiscal year.
Results
All of the calculation is estimated for FY2012 and can only be round to 100.
DEMAND EXCEPT EB2CI
EB1 demand up to 2012/09: 24000
EB2Row demand up to 2012/09: 18000
EB4 demand up to 2012/09: 1000 (rough estimates as very less inventory)
EB5 demand up to 2012/09: 5000 (rough estimates as very less inventory)
Total demand for EB1 + EB2Row + EB4 + EB5 up to 2012/09 is 44000
SPILLOVER
EB1 SO up to 2012/09: 40000-24000=16000
EB2ROW SO up to 2012/09: 40000*0.86-18000=16400
EB4 SO up to 2012/09: 0
EB5 SO up to 2012/09: 10000-5000=5000 (correct me if wrong)
Total spillover is 37400.
TOTAL VISA NUMBER AVAILABLE FOR EB2CI
Based on abovementioned data, we can get the total visa number in FY2012 for
EB2CI is 37400+5600 = 43000
*******************************************
EB2C demand up to 2012/09: 9400
EB2I demand up to 2012/09: 43000
Total EB2CI demand up to 2012/09: 43000+9400=52400
Conclusion:
Visa demand for EB2CI 52.4K; Visa supply for EB2CI 43K.
In FY2012, the visa number available for EB2CI is not enough to
allocate to all of 2010 PD. However, considering that USCIS need extra 485 cases in the inventory for FY2013, VB advances to 2010/12 within the next two VB has a distinct possibility. Second half of 2010 PD can expect to get GC in early FY2013. Retrogression in the summer has moderate chance. If retrogression, it will not be significant.
Reference
I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics (updated January 12,
2012) |
s********z
发帖数: 5411 | 2 zan!
2007
number
【在 p*****a 的大作中提到】
: by pattaya and CO
: Department of Visa Bulletin, Mitbbs University
: Introduction
: This study is to predicate the VB for EB2CI in the next few months based on the simple calculation.
: MY prediction for EB2IC is based on the average 485 numbers on 2007/10, 2007/11 and 2007/12 . My prediction for other categories is based on the real number in 2010 and 2011.
: I would not do calculation on EB3 as this study is specifically for EB2IC.
: I believe this number can reflect and match the real number.
: Materials and methods
: Projected demand until 2010/12 was calculated as below.
: Rule 1: The average demand in each category (EB2I and EB2C) is the average 485 number from 2007/10 to 2007/12. The demand for other categories (EB1 and EB2Row) is based on the real number in 2010 and 2011.
|
z********o
发帖数: 3895 | |
l********7
发帖数: 1089 | |
w*******t
发帖数: 2459 | |
p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 6 caution for what?
【在 w*******t 的大作中提到】
: Ding with caution...
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e**s
发帖数: 856 | |
v**m
发帖数: 706 | |
a*******d
发帖数: 4846 | |
b***d
发帖数: 288 | 10 进步真快啊，都会用数字了，hehe
给你2个包子。
on the simple calculation.
2007/11 and 2007/12 . My prediction for other categories is based on the
real number in 2010 and 2011.
average 485 number from 2007/10 to 2007/12. The demand for other
categories (EB1 and EB2Row) is based on the real number in 2010 and 2011.
【在 p*****a 的大作中提到】
: by pattaya and CO
: Department of Visa Bulletin, Mitbbs University
: Introduction
: This study is to predicate the VB for EB2CI in the next few months based on the simple calculation.
: MY prediction for EB2IC is based on the average 485 numbers on 2007/10, 2007/11 and 2007/12 . My prediction for other categories is based on the real number in 2010 and 2011.
: I would not do calculation on EB3 as this study is specifically for EB2IC.
: I believe this number can reflect and match the real number.
: Materials and methods
: Projected demand until 2010/12 was calculated as below.
: Rule 1: The average demand in each category (EB2I and EB2C) is the average 485 number from 2007/10 to 2007/12. The demand for other categories (EB1 and EB2Row) is based on the real number in 2010 and 2011.
|
l***r
发帖数: 206 | 11 Zan analysis. Probably low estimation for PD 2010. I would like to say your
analysis is more realistic if including only the 1st half of PD 2010. The
cut-off date in March and April visa bulletin may include PD up to July 2010
, then the 2nd half of PD 2010 will be concurrent around Sep. 2012 because
FY 2013 starts.
on the simple calculation.
2007/11 and 2007/12 . My prediction for other categories is based on the
real number in 2010 and 2011.
average 485 number from 2007/10 to 2007/12. The demand for other
categories (EB1 and EB2Row) is based on the real number in 2010 and 2011.
【在 p*****a 的大作中提到】
: by pattaya and CO
: Department of Visa Bulletin, Mitbbs University
: Introduction
: This study is to predicate the VB for EB2CI in the next few months based on the simple calculation.
: MY prediction for EB2IC is based on the average 485 numbers on 2007/10, 2007/11 and 2007/12 . My prediction for other categories is based on the real number in 2010 and 2011.
: I would not do calculation on EB3 as this study is specifically for EB2IC.
: I believe this number can reflect and match the real number.
: Materials and methods
: Projected demand until 2010/12 was calculated as below.
: Rule 1: The average demand in each category (EB2I and EB2C) is the average 485 number from 2007/10 to 2007/12. The demand for other categories (EB1 and EB2Row) is based on the real number in 2010 and 2011.
|
i********n
发帖数: 338 | 12 Rule 3: 2008 demand is A X 12; 2009 demand is A X 12 X 0.8; 2010 demand is
A X 12
这个A是什么东东？ |
p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 13 A is average 485 numbers on 2007/10, 2007/11 and 2007/12
is
【在 i********n 的大作中提到】
: Rule 3: 2008 demand is A X 12; 2009 demand is A X 12 X 0.8; 2010 demand is
: A X 12
: 这个A是什么东东？
|
