f*******8 发帖数: 1430 | 1 这次Newtown的枪击案,把gun control的议题再次放入公众的关注中,可以想象下一届
国会就职后,肯定会就这个议题花很多时间讨论和立法。
对于gun control的立法活动,肯定会或多或少的影响到对于immigration reform的
push. 由于immigraton reform可能通过的window非常窄,原来很多CIR的积极推动者希
望在新国会一就职就马上开始CIR的立法,甚至有人预计Easter之前都能通过CIR。可是
这次枪击案可能会打乱他们的计划,因为gun control可能是下届国会就职后的首要议
题。
如果immigration reform的讨论因此而延后,那么通过的可能性就小多了。拖过2013年
,如果到了2014年,面临中期选举,那么移民这样有争议的议案更不可能通过。 | c*********g 发帖数: 116 | 2 两个都是很难通过的法案
会不会同时讨论,成为两党讨价还价的筹码,最终一个法案被通过,另一个法案被放弃 | d****n 发帖数: 97 | 3 Let's face the reality,
1 in 2014, dem's win control of congress and hold at least 57 seats of
senate, a form of cir will be passed with terms benefiting both illegal and
legal immigrants
Chance of DEM's win: < 20% (no need to blame those eb2/3c fooled by GOP,
since their contribution is zero)
Chance of Cir after the Win: 75%
Overall chance: < 15%
2 otherwise, a divided and entrenched congress will do nothing just as what
happened in past. Of course, many bills will be proposed to fool those
newbies.
Chance of divided congress: > 80%
Chance of collaboration between GOP and dem to pass stem or brain acts: <1%
Overall chance <1% |
|