c*****4 发帖数: 1777 | 1 共和党众院2号人物,议长博纳的最大威胁下台了。扭腰时报认为CIR希望更为渺茫。我
的看法相反。
1、Cantor不再是博纳的威胁,博纳可以放开手脚表决CIR而不用担心丢掉议长的位子
2、Cantor已经下台,不排除在坡脚丫会期支持CIR。
3、三号人物来自加州,一个一贯同情劳模的州,反CIR的压力不大。
不要说Pro CIR的不阴险。搬板凳看戏了。 |
t*******y 发帖数: 21396 | 2 Cantor完蛋给共和党的信号就是草根反对CIR,剩下的更不敢乱动了。CIR死了,但不排
除CIR死了以后小法案,特别是给STEM的小法案通过的可能性。 |
c*****4 发帖数: 1777 | 3 CIR过不过和我没关系。只是看热闹好玩。
一个前民主党州长的幕僚摇身一变成为茶党候选人(在党内初选?)没钱做广告的前提
下击败共和党二号人物。比纸牌屋更纸牌屋、无间道更无间道。
怕就是背后民主党人使坏等级为共和党人去投票。这一计量在总统初选中屡见不鲜。也
怕是博纳暗里使了手段和什么大佬们谈妥了什么deal也不一定。
【在 t*******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Cantor完蛋给共和党的信号就是草根反对CIR,剩下的更不敢乱动了。CIR死了,但不排 : 除CIR死了以后小法案,特别是给STEM的小法案通过的可能性。
|
g******e 发帖数: 1258 | 4 Lindsey Graham反而顺利通过primary了。 |
o********0 发帖数: 2145 | 5 不能以一场输赢定成败,共和党初选,4场三温和胜茶党候选人,最不会输的Cantor输
了,博纳有没有使手段真不知道,不过有评论认为他脱离选区太多,也是个因素 |
x**********7 发帖数: 973 | 6 只能说如果当初奥巴马推动CIR的时候,如果众院没有cantor,那么CIR 通过的可能性
大增
现在事过人非,虽然可能给博纳捅刀子的人没了,但是CIR的势头也没了,现在越来越
多人觉着CIR有没有没啥。
就跟当初禁枪一样
【在 c*****4 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 共和党众院2号人物,议长博纳的最大威胁下台了。扭腰时报认为CIR希望更为渺茫。我 : 的看法相反。 : 1、Cantor不再是博纳的威胁,博纳可以放开手脚表决CIR而不用担心丢掉议长的位子 : 2、Cantor已经下台,不排除在坡脚丫会期支持CIR。 : 3、三号人物来自加州,一个一贯同情劳模的州,反CIR的压力不大。 : 不要说Pro CIR的不阴险。搬板凳看戏了。
|
o********0 发帖数: 2145 | 7 前几天媒体大批Cantor,说他受到两党的指责,这下好,直接报应了 |
c*****4 发帖数: 1777 | 8 我说的CIR指piece meal。因为即使是一党一统两院,直接表决另一院的法案也罕见。
博纳早前已经被Pro CIR组织评为移民之友。三号党鞭麦卡锡?早就和媒体说好几个
piece meal早已通过委员会可以提交全院。一直就被(Cantor)拖着。
现在压力转向博纳了。看这个老狐狸是不是真是移民之友,找什么由头了。
【在 x**********7 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 只能说如果当初奥巴马推动CIR的时候,如果众院没有cantor,那么CIR 通过的可能性 : 大增 : 现在事过人非,虽然可能给博纳捅刀子的人没了,但是CIR的势头也没了,现在越来越 : 多人觉着CIR有没有没啥。 : 就跟当初禁枪一样
|
o********0 发帖数: 2145 | 9 权益人士:反对移民改革最强硬者是众议院共和党领袖坎托
http://news.sinovision.net/politics/201405/00295195.htm
这篇文章比较清晰地勾画了Cantor在移民问题上的一些言行,估计两党都不爽此人,于
是挂了。嗅出了一丝阴谋的味道 |
x**********7 发帖数: 973 | 10 也许有希望吧
但是piece meal 的问题是, 两党都先推自己的法案,结果被对方毙掉
【在 c*****4 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我说的CIR指piece meal。因为即使是一党一统两院,直接表决另一院的法案也罕见。 : 博纳早前已经被Pro CIR组织评为移民之友。三号党鞭麦卡锡?早就和媒体说好几个 : piece meal早已通过委员会可以提交全院。一直就被(Cantor)拖着。 : 现在压力转向博纳了。看这个老狐狸是不是真是移民之友,找什么由头了。
|
|
|
t*******y 发帖数: 21396 | 11 这次确实有个民主党登报让民主党去投Brat的票了。因为VA是Open Primary,谁都可
以去投,民主党也可以冒充共和党去投票。
【在 c*****4 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : CIR过不过和我没关系。只是看热闹好玩。 : 一个前民主党州长的幕僚摇身一变成为茶党候选人(在党内初选?)没钱做广告的前提 : 下击败共和党二号人物。比纸牌屋更纸牌屋、无间道更无间道。 : 怕就是背后民主党人使坏等级为共和党人去投票。这一计量在总统初选中屡见不鲜。也 : 怕是博纳暗里使了手段和什么大佬们谈妥了什么deal也不一定。
|
o********0 发帖数: 2145 | |
t*******y 发帖数: 21396 | |
h**u 发帖数: 146 | |
o********0 发帖数: 2145 | |
t*******y 发帖数: 21396 | 16 应该和这封信没啥太大关系,Cantor在自己选区声望不好。
民主党应该和Cantor有内幕交易的。前阵子Cantor在自己选区发传单,说自己是国会反
移民的中坚;同一天众院最坚定的移民改革支持者芝加哥的民主党人古铁雷斯特地跑到
Cantor的选区开新闻发布会控诉Cantor反移民。这个巧合很奇怪,开新闻发布会哪儿都
能开,哪天都能开,为啥非要跑那么远去开,又是同一天呢?合理的解释就是民主党明
里反对,暗中支持Cantor。Brat攻击Cantor支持移民,民主党出来证明Cantor反对移民
,配合Cantor造势。因为Cantor经常阳奉阴违地反对移民改革,暗里和民主党通气。
【在 o********0 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : : 谢谢链接,牛!一封信干翻Cantor,这么说,是利好移民改革。
|
c*****4 发帖数: 1777 | 17 纯理性讨论。当然也不排除没有任何阴谋论。
1、如果Cantor过了初选,即使有秘密deal,11月之前CIR都不会有希望。
2、古铁雷斯去踢场更多象是动员民主党选民搞掉Cantor。
3、无论名声怎么样,选民将一个重量级人物搞掉是很罕见的。因为重量级人物能够为
选区带来很多政治经济上的好处。即使茶党把茶党的选上去了,一个政治新兵蛋子的国
会根本没人理会。
4、舒默、巴马有什么内幕能够下令等待?当然舒默牛皮吹了很多(既没有参院70票;
也没有几十万人游行)。但时机也太巧合了一点,连移民组织都不闹了。至少会有共和
党的桌子底下说了些什么。否则过不了秋后算账没闹事谁负责任?
5、这其实也给共和党议员们一个警告。反对博纳、党鞭和党是没有什么好下场的。
6、我自己的私货:小小布什要挑战希拉里,CIR一定要过,否则没有希望。民主党已经
旧事重提借肯尼迪遇刺开火攻击布什家族是纳粹党了。当年因为这个,老布什当年两次
选参议院都没有成功。
【在 t*******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 应该和这封信没啥太大关系,Cantor在自己选区声望不好。 : 民主党应该和Cantor有内幕交易的。前阵子Cantor在自己选区发传单,说自己是国会反 : 移民的中坚;同一天众院最坚定的移民改革支持者芝加哥的民主党人古铁雷斯特地跑到 : Cantor的选区开新闻发布会控诉Cantor反移民。这个巧合很奇怪,开新闻发布会哪儿都 : 能开,哪天都能开,为啥非要跑那么远去开,又是同一天呢?合理的解释就是民主党明 : 里反对,暗中支持Cantor。Brat攻击Cantor支持移民,民主党出来证明Cantor反对移民 : ,配合Cantor造势。因为Cantor经常阳奉阴违地反对移民改革,暗里和民主党通气。
|
H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 18 他败给谁的?茶党!茶党反对CIR比他坚决多了,所以两害相权取其重,龛秃只是小害
,小害去了大害来,这才是为什么说CIR不行了。
(BN) Cantor Loss Upends Republican Ranks, Dims Immigration Bill
2014-06-11 11:46:05.930 GMT
By Derek Wallbank and Jonathan Allen
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. House Majority Leader Eric
Cantor’s historic loss in yesterday’s Virginia primary sent
shock waves through the Republican Party, creating an opening
for a Tea Party-backed candidate to vie for a leadership post
and likely cementing Washington gridlock for years.
Cantor is highly unlikely to quit his leadership post,
according to a Republican familiar with his plans.
House Speaker John Boehner, an Ohio Republican, already
struggled to marshal his caucus behind basic bills to fund the
government and to support such business priorities as rewriting
the nation’s immigration laws. His job was made harder by
insurgent David Brat’s 56 percent to 44 percent victory over
Cantor, the House’s second-highest ranking Republican leader.
“It is stunning on so many levels,” said Ari Fleischer,
the former press secretary to President George W. Bush and a
onetime House aide. “The most important is it likely means that
there is no chance that immigration reform gets on the House
floor this summer.”
Cantor’s loss could also have long-range market
repercussions, as the seven-term House veteran was an ally for
Wall Street on issues ranging from the 2008 Troubled Asset
Relief Program to defending the Export-Import Bank. Those
connections also made him vulnerable to the challenge from the
small-government movement that emerged after Congress passed the
bank bail-out in response to the 2008 financial collapse.
‘First Shot’
House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling,
a Texas Republican who had positioned himself as a rival to
Cantor on issues affecting Wall Street, is being promoted as a
possible successor to him by several Republican lawmakers. He
has said the U.S. should “exit the Ex-Im.”
“It’s going to speed up the process of Tea Party members
positioning themselves for a leadership run,” said Ron Bonjean,
an aide to former House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, an Illinois
Republican. “This stunning news could be the first shot in an
all-out-war between the establishment and Tea Party over
leadership control.”
The upset marks a shift in this year’s momentum in the
intraparty power struggle between the small-government movement
and Republicans aligned with the business community. Until
Cantor’s loss, the pro-business forces had protected almost all
of the incumbents targeted by the Tea Party.
The defeat of Cantor, 51, will add momentum to the campaign
of Tea-Party endorsed Chris McDaniel in his bid to unseat
Republican U.S. Senator Thad Cochran in a June 24 runoff primary
in Mississippi.
Business Priorities
Cantor’s upset also will embolden movement-aligned members
who have blocked House votes on such issues as changing
immigration policy and funding for infrastructure, two
priorities for the business community. Cantor came under attack
for considering debate on rewriting the nation’s immigration
laws and for lifting the debt ceiling to end a partial
government shutdown last October.
Finally, Cantor’s loss may also be taken as a warning to
2016 Republican presidential hopefuls that straying from
orthodoxy on immigration or other issues can be politically
fatal in primaries. Florida Republicans Senator Marco Rubio and
former Governor Jeb Bush, both prospective presidential
contenders, have faced criticism for supporting efforts to
provide legal status for undocumented immigrants.
In a shorter timeframe, one thing is clear: “This rocks
the Republican conference, for sure,” said Representative
Patrick McHenry of North Carolina in a reference to the party’s
House leadership line-up.
Leadership Shuffle
Cantor had been considered the front-runner to become the
next speaker. With his defeat, House Majority Whip Kevin
McCarthy of California, the chamber’s third-ranking Republican
and one of the Virginian’s closest allies, is expected to vie
for the No. 2 job, one lawmaker said.
McCarthy didn’t address his own plans in a statement
praising Cantor’s “graciousness and leadership.”
Another prospect may be Representative Pete Sessions of
Texas, chairman of the House Rules Committee who previously
headed the political committee that works to elect Republicans
to the chamber.
Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana, chairman of the
Tea Party-aligned House Republican Study Committee, may make a
bid for the whip’s job if McCarthy vacates it, according to a
party aide who requested anonymity since he wasn’t authorized to
discuss the intraparty divisions.
As members jockeyed for position, Tea Party groups reveled
in the victory by Brat, 49, who teaches economics at Randolph-
Macon College in Ashland, Virginia.
Amnesty ‘Repudiation’
“This is a victory to the people of his district, this is
a repudiation of amnesty,” said Jenny Beth Martin, co-founder
of the Georgia-based Tea Party Patriots, a group that opposed
changes to the nation’s immigration laws to deal with millions
of undocumented residents living here. “The people like Eric
Cantor in leadership in Congress are focused on flooding our job
market with more people and it will make it more difficult for
people to get jobs in America.”
Boehner’s position also could be threatened if he fails to
heed the lesson from Cantor’s loss, Martin said. “If he
continues to push for amnesty and does not pay attention to what
concerns Americans, there will be a challenge to Boehner’s
speakership,” she said.
“Folks are looking for a change,” said Representative Tim
Huelskamp, a Kansas Republican and one of the most vocal critics
of his party’s House leadership. “ I think we should toss them
all out and start over.”
Boehner’s Reaction
After finishing dinner at a Capitol Hill restaurant,
Boehner, 64, lamented Cantor’s loss -- the first-ever primary
defeat of a House majority leader since the post was created in
1899, according to Eric Ostermeier, a political analyst with the
University of Minnesota.
“Eric Cantor and I have been through a lot together. He’s
a good friend and a great leader, and someone I’ve come to rely
upon on a daily basis as we make the tough choices that come
with governing,” Boehner said in a statement.
Democrats sought to pair Cantor’s loss with the Republican
primary victory of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham in South Carolina
yesterday to argue that the House should embrace a Senate-passed
bill that would tighten border security, rewrite temporary-
worker rules and create a path for illegal immigrants already in
the country to become citizens.
‘Winning Big’
“Cantor’s problem wasn’t his position on immigration
reform, it was his lack of a position,” White House senior
adviser Dan Pfeiffer wrote on Twitter. “Graham wrote and passed
a bill and is winning big.”
Graham, who helped shepherd a bill the Senate passed last
June to revise U.S. immigration laws, defeated six opponents to
win nomination to a third term.
Bonjean said it will be more difficult to pass the
Democratic bill because House Republicans will be spooked by
Brat’s use of the issue to beat Cantor.
“It’s going to be a tough case to make that immigration is
going to be brought to the House floor anytime soon,” he said.
Brat, a Tea Party activist who earned a doctoral degree in
economics from American University, also had criticized Cantor
as part of the Washington establishment.
“It’s disappointing, sure, but I believe in this country.
I believe there is opportunity around the next corner for all of
us,” Cantor said last night in conceding defeat.
‘Main Street’
Brat, during an interview on Fox News, said he ran on
Republican principles, and faulted the party for “paying way
too much attention to Wall Street and not enough attention to
Main Street.”
“The Republican Party has been kind of taking it to the
grassroots, and the grassroots is rightly upset,” said Brat,
who’s married and has two children. “The only problem with the
Republican principles is that no one’s following them.”
Brat will face Democrat Jack Trammell, also a teacher at
Randolph-Macon, in the November election. The Republican-leaning
district takes in part of Richmond and some of its suburbs.
Brent Bozell, head of ForAmerica, a limited-government
group specializing in social media, said in a statement: “Eric
Cantor’s loss tonight is an apocalyptic moment for the GOP
establishment. The grassroots is in revolt and marching.”
Cantor’s polling expert, John McLaughlin, whose last survey
showed the incumbent comfortably ahead, blamed the loss on
Virginia Democrats. Since the state doesn’t register voters by
party, it’s legal for partisans to cast ballots in another
party’s primary.
More than 65,000 votes were cast in Cantor’s race, an
increase from the 46,300 cast in the 2012 primary that he won
with 79 percent of the vote.
“To lose by this margin and with this kind of turnout,
Democrats had to be playing games,” McLaughlin said in an
interview. “I guarantee these voters were not on our lists.”
For Related News and Information:
Tea Party Revived as Cochran Runoff Looms Before House Races (2)
NSN N6NXJQ6S9728
Tea Party Losses Tilt Republican Civil War to Business Wing (1)
NSN N5XIPX6KLVRA
Chamber-Backed Candidates Thwart Tea Party in U.S. Primary Tests
NSN N56TS46TTDS0
Top Stories: TOP
Top government news: TOP GOV
--With assistance from Greg Giroux, Annie Linskey, Michael C.
Bender and Roxana Tiron in Washington and Mark Halperin in New
York.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Derek Wallbank in Washington at +1-202-654-1240 or
d*******[email protected];
Jonathan Allen in Washington at +1-202-654-4360 or
j*******[email protected]
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Jeanne Cummings at +1-202-654-7390 or
j*********[email protected]
Steve Geimann |
a***g 发帖数: 2402 | 19 上网搜了一下,发现这个Cantor是个很有意思的人物
到了他这个地位,感觉应该是个白头发老头了,可人家不是--身高一米八八,体型匀
称,51岁看着像四十出头。出身保守派犹太人家庭,祖上从东欧移民到美国,父亲是
房地产商,本人毕业于哥伦比亚大学。这典型高富帅啊
他投票记录显示他是个保守派人物,可他老婆是个坚定的民主党自由派,支持同性结婚
(Cantor反对)。很好奇他们两口子是怎么调和的。
还有件趣事,Cantor上大学时就进了当时众议员Tom Bliley 的团队,给 Tom Bliley
当司机,后来成了 Tom Bliley的继任者。看来司机上位并不是中国的专利
【在 c*****4 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 共和党众院2号人物,议长博纳的最大威胁下台了。扭腰时报认为CIR希望更为渺茫。我 : 的看法相反。 : 1、Cantor不再是博纳的威胁,博纳可以放开手脚表决CIR而不用担心丢掉议长的位子 : 2、Cantor已经下台,不排除在坡脚丫会期支持CIR。 : 3、三号人物来自加州,一个一贯同情劳模的州,反CIR的压力不大。 : 不要说Pro CIR的不阴险。搬板凳看戏了。
|
a***x 发帖数: 26368 | 20 扑哧
【在 c*****4 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 共和党众院2号人物,议长博纳的最大威胁下台了。扭腰时报认为CIR希望更为渺茫。我 : 的看法相反。 : 1、Cantor不再是博纳的威胁,博纳可以放开手脚表决CIR而不用担心丢掉议长的位子 : 2、Cantor已经下台,不排除在坡脚丫会期支持CIR。 : 3、三号人物来自加州,一个一贯同情劳模的州,反CIR的压力不大。 : 不要说Pro CIR的不阴险。搬板凳看戏了。
|
|
|
a***x 发帖数: 26368 | 21 扑哧
【在 t*******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : Cantor完蛋给共和党的信号就是草根反对CIR,剩下的更不敢乱动了。CIR死了,但不排 : 除CIR死了以后小法案,特别是给STEM的小法案通过的可能性。
|
w****P 发帖数: 80 | 22 我觉得piece meal可能性增加,但是不管是CIR还是piece meal今年都过不去,所以短
期是利空 |
c*****4 发帖数: 1777 | 23 也许是概率从千分之一到百分之一。当然也可以看成是零乘以千分之一到零乘以百分之
一的。我就是自干五义务给老邢骗流量的。
今天读LA时报:
1、博纳并没有露面,他的助手表示对结果震惊
2、第三顺位麦卡锡没有露面
3、有人宣布对麦卡锡(R-CA,具体搞piece meal的)的位子有兴趣
4、麦卡锡被认为最有可能官升一级的,如果不被保守派搞掉(我相信不会)
5、评论不知道Cantor是否应该做完任期,因为毫无先例
6、周三共和党会讨论此事:如果Cantor现在丢掉第二,那更是重磅炸弹,CIR由零乘以
百分之一上升到零乘以百分之二以上
另背景:
五月底的民调是62% vs 28%,竞选支出是40-to-1,茶党候选人只有两位工作人员,用
Walmart的paid电话。
最终结果是Cantor输了十几二十个点。说明民调样本错了。有巨大的无论Cantor说什么
干什么都一定要把他搞下去的去投票了。
只有两种可能:
1、VA有大量的极极右地下茶党。也从不抱怨Cantor,就是潜水民调时说好话选举时一
起协同把Cantor搞下去。
2、Cantor给民主党阴了。
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 他败给谁的?茶党!茶党反对CIR比他坚决多了,所以两害相权取其重,龛秃只是小害 : ,小害去了大害来,这才是为什么说CIR不行了。 : (BN) Cantor Loss Upends Republican Ranks, Dims Immigration Bill : 2014-06-11 11:46:05.930 GMT : By Derek Wallbank and Jonathan Allen : June 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. House Majority Leader Eric : Cantor’s historic loss in yesterday’s Virginia primary sent : shock waves through the Republican Party, creating an opening : for a Tea Party-backed candidate to vie for a leadership post : and likely cementing Washington gridlock for years.
|
t*******y 发帖数: 21396 | 24 根据广泛流传的说法,Cantor对移民改革是嘴上反对,暗里支持,做了不少小动作。所
以他倒下对CIR是利空。当然就算他不倒CIR基本也是死了,昨天的Primary只是压垮CIR
的最后一根稻草。
CIR要想活过来,只有一种结局:就是民主党在11月中选保住上院,下院翻盘,那么下
届国会重新投票CIR,明年过。昨天Cantor倒下,让民主党看到了希望。
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 他败给谁的?茶党!茶党反对CIR比他坚决多了,所以两害相权取其重,龛秃只是小害 : ,小害去了大害来,这才是为什么说CIR不行了。 : (BN) Cantor Loss Upends Republican Ranks, Dims Immigration Bill : 2014-06-11 11:46:05.930 GMT : By Derek Wallbank and Jonathan Allen : June 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. House Majority Leader Eric : Cantor’s historic loss in yesterday’s Virginia primary sent : shock waves through the Republican Party, creating an opening : for a Tea Party-backed candidate to vie for a leadership post : and likely cementing Washington gridlock for years.
|
C********g 发帖数: 1548 | 25 cantor被DEM干掉了。选票从上一次的40K+上升到这次的60K+。这多出来的票我感觉至
少有50%是民主党的,并且完全投给了Brat了。
所有的民调都宣示Cantor领先至少9个百分点。这些民调都是针对有GOP倾向的选民。被
逆转完全是因为DEM选民突然加入。 |
k*****o 发帖数: 1972 | 26 感觉欧8马有阴谋(个人觉得他挺有谋略,也能忍)
这样做,有可能是为选票,
也有可能是想移民法案过。
好像两条都对民主党有利。
应该水很深,着急的应该是共和党人
【在 C********g 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : cantor被DEM干掉了。选票从上一次的40K+上升到这次的60K+。这多出来的票我感觉至 : 少有50%是民主党的,并且完全投给了Brat了。 : 所有的民调都宣示Cantor领先至少9个百分点。这些民调都是针对有GOP倾向的选民。被 : 逆转完全是因为DEM选民突然加入。
|
t*******y 发帖数: 21396 | 27 不一定是民主党,今年年初政府关门,民众可能怨气很大。一般满足现状的时候大家倾
向于呆家里,有怨气就倾向出去投票了
【在 C********g 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : cantor被DEM干掉了。选票从上一次的40K+上升到这次的60K+。这多出来的票我感觉至 : 少有50%是民主党的,并且完全投给了Brat了。 : 所有的民调都宣示Cantor领先至少9个百分点。这些民调都是针对有GOP倾向的选民。被 : 逆转完全是因为DEM选民突然加入。
|
t*******y 发帖数: 21396 | 28 俺比较偏好Politico的政论,比较深入和靠谱。
今天Politico的观点是:
Eric Cantor loss kills immigration reform
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/06/2014-virginia-primary-eri
【在 c*****4 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 也许是概率从千分之一到百分之一。当然也可以看成是零乘以千分之一到零乘以百分之 : 一的。我就是自干五义务给老邢骗流量的。 : 今天读LA时报: : 1、博纳并没有露面,他的助手表示对结果震惊 : 2、第三顺位麦卡锡没有露面 : 3、有人宣布对麦卡锡(R-CA,具体搞piece meal的)的位子有兴趣 : 4、麦卡锡被认为最有可能官升一级的,如果不被保守派搞掉(我相信不会) : 5、评论不知道Cantor是否应该做完任期,因为毫无先例 : 6、周三共和党会讨论此事:如果Cantor现在丢掉第二,那更是重磅炸弹,CIR由零乘以 : 百分之一上升到零乘以百分之二以上
|
R****i 发帖数: 538 | 29 今天的新闻宣布,Cantor下台宣布移民法已死。
不知楼主还在分析什么? |
c*****4 发帖数: 1777 | 30 我同意CIR死了。我说了我就是闲得没事干自带干粮为老邢骗流量的。
最新消息:USA Today几分钟之前,共和党回忆结束了(?):Cantor will step down
at the end of July。
根据6月9号的GOP House Negotiator的文章认为CIR是50/50。但需要国庆节之前提起。
八月是休会期。
大伙备好干粮板凳7月再见。
【在 R****i 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 今天的新闻宣布,Cantor下台宣布移民法已死。 : 不知楼主还在分析什么?
|
|
|
t*******y 发帖数: 21396 | 31 这个primary结果更Confirm了共和党的认识:之前还是不够conservative,之后共和党
会更全面右转。CIR不可能了,Cantor支持的piece meal也不太可能了,因为被证明失
败了。
down
【在 c*****4 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我同意CIR死了。我说了我就是闲得没事干自带干粮为老邢骗流量的。 : 最新消息:USA Today几分钟之前,共和党回忆结束了(?):Cantor will step down : at the end of July。 : 根据6月9号的GOP House Negotiator的文章认为CIR是50/50。但需要国庆节之前提起。 : 八月是休会期。 : 大伙备好干粮板凳7月再见。
|
a********s 发帖数: 2356 | 32 我前几天还问了这哥们几个问题,没想到这么快
down
【在 c*****4 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我同意CIR死了。我说了我就是闲得没事干自带干粮为老邢骗流量的。 : 最新消息:USA Today几分钟之前,共和党回忆结束了(?):Cantor will step down : at the end of July。 : 根据6月9号的GOP House Negotiator的文章认为CIR是50/50。但需要国庆节之前提起。 : 八月是休会期。 : 大伙备好干粮板凳7月再见。
|
c*****4 发帖数: 1777 | 33 如果麦卡锡升级No. 2,我就宣布移民改革的希望从零乘以2%升到零乘以4%。
【在 a********s 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 我前几天还问了这哥们几个问题,没想到这么快 : : down
|
t*******y 发帖数: 21396 | 34 这次移民改革背后的推动力量非常强大,移民改革从去年Boehner宣布众院不支持开始
就被宣判死刑了,到现在还死而不僵,貌似还越挫越勇。不知道会不会有奇迹发生
【在 c*****4 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 如果麦卡锡升级No. 2,我就宣布移民改革的希望从零乘以2%升到零乘以4%。
|
t*******y 发帖数: 21396 | 35 今天新闻Idaho的茶党Paul Labrador说可能会出来竞选Majority Leader。Labrador虽
然是茶党,但是移民改革的支持者(得益于他Latino的背景),曾经是众院起草移民改
革Bill的8人帮成员,他支持给非法移民身份,但要求他们自己承担Health Cost。无论
麦卡锡还是Labrador上台,对移民改革的态度都好过Eric Cantor。但Eric因为口头部
分支持移民改革下台,共和党反移民势力抬头。最后会怎么走不好说。
【在 c*****4 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 如果麦卡锡升级No. 2,我就宣布移民改革的希望从零乘以2%升到零乘以4%。
|
c*****4 发帖数: 1777 | 36 麦卡锡已经内部宣布手里有足够的票升级了。主霉已经用纸牌屋里东木头来告诉听众他
原来的职位是啥。麦卡锡11月选举后可能会再上一层楼成为议长。因为博纳已经说了不
打算连任。无论如何,众院两党领袖都来自加州。通过一些东西可能性还是很大的。不
过可能是明年了。
因此球又踢回参院。最理想就是参院重回共和党手里(50-50)。寄望麦康纳比里德靠
谱。
我觉得只要西裔有汤喝(如参军入籍和临时身份)巴马是会签的。毕竟这是巴马名垂史
册的最后一件事:结束战争;克林顿没办到的医改;小布什没办到的移改;减税。
【在 t*******y 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png) : 今天新闻Idaho的茶党Paul Labrador说可能会出来竞选Majority Leader。Labrador虽 : 然是茶党,但是移民改革的支持者(得益于他Latino的背景),曾经是众院起草移民改 : 革Bill的8人帮成员,他支持给非法移民身份,但要求他们自己承担Health Cost。无论 : 麦卡锡还是Labrador上台,对移民改革的态度都好过Eric Cantor。但Eric因为口头部 : 分支持移民改革下台,共和党反移民势力抬头。最后会怎么走不好说。
|