L****a
发帖数: 572 | 1 发信人: Laputa (以德糊人), 信区: Stock
标 题: 美股 Solar 概要
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jun 24 22:45:27 2009, 美东)
First Solar (FSLR) : CdTe 薄膜PV, 目前处于行业领先地位. 每瓦特成本即将
低于 $1.0, 目前没有哪家 Solar 厂商能做到这么低的 cost.
SunPower (SPWRA) : SunPower 做 c-Si PV. SunPower 在行业里做到最高的
conversion efficiency.
Evergreen (ESLR) : Evergreen 做 c-Si PV. 但是 Evergreen 拥有自己的技术
叫 String Ribbon. 这个技术提高了转换效率, 但是成本很高. 所以到目前为止
Evergreen 都无法赢利.
Emcore (EMKR) : multijunction III-V solar cell. EMKR 的技术还包括
Lens Concentrated Solar Panel. 这个技术就是把太阳光通过透镜聚焦到PV
的 |
L****a
发帖数: 572 | 2 也许对做 Solar 的人有些用. 不过都是些皮毛, 算抛砖引玉吧. |
H*****l
发帖数: 702 | 3 Emcore 主要是multijunction III-V solar cells.他们的CEO是大陆本科毕业去美国读
PhD的。。。。BS jilin U,PhD UC Davise,这样的人才是我等的榜样阿
它和boeing spectrolab是唯二靠普的MJ III-V SC provider
ECD就是United Solar.他们不算是manufacturer拉，只不过是有比较大的pilot line的
R&D
Sunpower 也不是典型的solar manufacturer,因为他们的产能也能可怜
大牛还是AMAT和SHARP。。。 |
L****a
发帖数: 572 | 4 Expert comments, hehe.
Yes, ECD bought UniSolar a few years ago. But they are currently making
their cells. And it's no longer pilot line (they had pilot line 2 years ago)
.
Their current capacity is about 300 MW. They are trying to ramp up to 1G,
but the current market is bad. They are making money with high gross margin.
Sunpower is also major PV maker. Current capacity exceeds 300MW. They are
making money from their products with high margin.
AMAT does't make PV cells. But they are making PV
【在 H*****l 的大作中提到】
: Emcore 主要是multijunction III-V solar cells.他们的CEO是大陆本科毕业去美国读
: PhD的。。。。BS jilin U,PhD UC Davise,这样的人才是我等的榜样阿
: 它和boeing spectrolab是唯二靠普的MJ III-V SC provider
: ECD就是United Solar.他们不算是manufacturer拉，只不过是有比较大的pilot line的
: R&D
: Sunpower 也不是典型的solar manufacturer,因为他们的产能也能可怜
: 大牛还是AMAT和SHARP。。。
|
f*****0
发帖数: 489 | 5
none of them will survive as a real producer of solar power panels, and
solar power panels will not survive as a reason source of energy in our
life time, and unlikely thereafter: it is just too unreliable.
that doesn't mean you cannot make money off those names, especially in
today's environment.
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: 发信人: Laputa (以德糊人), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: 美股 Solar 概要
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jun 24 22:45:27 2009, 美东)
: First Solar (FSLR) : CdTe 薄膜PV, 目前处于行业领先地位. 每瓦特成本即将
: 低于 $1.0, 目前没有哪家 Solar 厂商能做到这么低的 cost.
: SunPower (SPWRA) : SunPower 做 c-Si PV. SunPower 在行业里做到最高的
: conversion efficiency.
: Evergreen (ESLR) : Evergreen 做 c-Si PV. 但是 Evergreen 拥有自己的技术
: 叫 String Ribbon. 这个技术提高了转换效率, 但是成本很高. 所以到目前为止
: Evergreen 都无法赢利.
|
H*****l
发帖数: 702 | 6 I agree, actually, i can't disagree
and
who cares if it can survive or not as a reasonable source on grid parity...
there are certain areas calling for solar energy application
otherwise, United solar,emcore and spectrolab would die out decades ago...
just like InP or GaN transistor makers..they have a tiny but stable market
to feed in...and
now it provides jobs...esp. good for fresh semiconductor/circuit/optical/
material graduates....who want to stay in U.S. after graduation...
so thanks, sola
【在 f*****0 的大作中提到】
:
: none of them will survive as a real producer of solar power panels, and
: solar power panels will not survive as a reason source of energy in our
: life time, and unlikely thereafter: it is just too unreliable.
: that doesn't mean you cannot make money off those names, especially in
: today's environment.
|
f*****0
发帖数: 489 | 7 I was just at my library that had a quarter million solar panel installed.
the live data computer suggests that it was generating 100w of power, and
today's peak was just over 200w. assuming that it could work 10 hours at its
peak, that's 2kwh a day, or 30 cents. so it is going to take $250,000 / 0.3
= 750,000 days, or about 2000 years, assuming zero operating costs to
recoup the investment. |
L****a
发帖数: 572 | 8 I actually don't like Solar either. I think it's a bubble and hypo.
But I guess there may be sth. wrong with your estimate. 100W for
$250K ?! where did you buy your panel? I guess you confused the rated
power of each module with the total power output of the module array
installed on your library.
its
.3
【在 f*****0 的大作中提到】
: I was just at my library that had a quarter million solar panel installed.
: the live data computer suggests that it was generating 100w of power, and
: today's peak was just over 200w. assuming that it could work 10 hours at its
: peak, that's 2kwh a day, or 30 cents. so it is going to take $250,000 / 0.3
: = 750,000 days, or about 2000 years, assuming zero operating costs to
: recoup the investment.
|
s******m
发帖数: 9 | 9 I believe the major PV market, PV for grid, will keep growing. The module
lifetime can be more than 20 years based on single crystal material, such as
silicon, III-V and so on. The cost is the only issue.
On the other hand, there are several other minor markets, such as PV for
remote area, PV for small systems. You can incorporate a PV module for any
unit which needs power. You can not expect where and when this kind of
market will boom.
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: 发信人: Laputa (以德糊人), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: 美股 Solar 概要
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jun 24 22:45:27 2009, 美东)
: First Solar (FSLR) : CdTe 薄膜PV, 目前处于行业领先地位. 每瓦特成本即将
: 低于 $1.0, 目前没有哪家 Solar 厂商能做到这么低的 cost.
: SunPower (SPWRA) : SunPower 做 c-Si PV. SunPower 在行业里做到最高的
: conversion efficiency.
: Evergreen (ESLR) : Evergreen 做 c-Si PV. 但是 Evergreen 拥有自己的技术
: 叫 String Ribbon. 这个技术提高了转换效率, 但是成本很高. 所以到目前为止
: Evergreen 都无法赢利.
|
h*******y
发帖数: 896 | |
|
|
a*******i
发帖数: 11664 | 11 cigs能不能做到薄膜上有那么大影响么？如果在Mo/glass上做好的话，足够用了。
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: 发信人: Laputa (以德糊人), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: 美股 Solar 概要
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jun 24 22:45:27 2009, 美东)
: First Solar (FSLR) : CdTe 薄膜PV, 目前处于行业领先地位. 每瓦特成本即将
: 低于 $1.0, 目前没有哪家 Solar 厂商能做到这么低的 cost.
: SunPower (SPWRA) : SunPower 做 c-Si PV. SunPower 在行业里做到最高的
: conversion efficiency.
: Evergreen (ESLR) : Evergreen 做 c-Si PV. 但是 Evergreen 拥有自己的技术
: 叫 String Ribbon. 这个技术提高了转换效率, 但是成本很高. 所以到目前为止
: Evergreen 都无法赢利.
|
L****a
发帖数: 572 | 12 一般来讲, 在薄膜上成本可以做的更低, 因为是 roll-to-roll printing process.
做在玻璃上, 这和 c-Si 的 panel 有什么大区别? 而且只有 8-10% 的转换效率.
【在 a*******i 的大作中提到】
: cigs能不能做到薄膜上有那么大影响么？如果在Mo/glass上做好的话，足够用了。
|
H*****l
发帖数: 702 | 13 CIGS最大的问题是化合物太复杂了
没人知道是怎么回事
很难控制process,很难scale up
CIGS的champion是21%，module只能到13%，似乎还是mini module
相比之下CdTe的champion是16.5%,Vapor transport可以到15%
而First solar的量产module 都有12% 了
对比一下，suntech的pulton 可以到20%，但是panel现在
稳定在15.5%-16%，他们号称量产的电池是18%
Gatech搞了好多年，终于可以用screen print和no LDD（一般的POCL3 single step diffusion)做到20% 的R&D，但是suniva的156cm2的solar cell 现在很难上17%
赫赫，我觉得最有前途的还是超高concentrated的MJ III-V...
不过Sarah Krutz最近说，如果你想玩〉500x的concentration,最好先问自己
why can you make it?....
【在 a*******i 的大作中提到】
: cigs能不能做到薄膜上有那么大影响么？如果在Mo/glass上做好的话，足够用了。
|
H*****l
发帖数: 702 | 14 玻璃是必要之恶阿
你需要一种透光够robust,够harsh的材料保护你的solar cell
就算能长在foil上面，也要encapsulate 玻璃的
最近在NREL，看他们经常和玻璃厂的人沟通
现在的玻璃没有为solar cell做优化，生产流程也没有optmize
if you go to check the write papers by that bankrupted " solar city " (sorry
, forget the name...) several years ago, you will see the issue....they did
many details to depth research on this...
基本上现在NREL毕业1个搞光的PhD，就有5-6个玻璃厂跑过来要人。。。
赫赫
【 在 Laputa (以德糊人) 的大作中提到: 】 |
L****a
发帖数: 572 | 15 但是象 UniSolar 那样的 module 就不需要玻璃啊 (20 年 warranty).
他们有玻璃的产品, 但基本上不生产了. 因为玻璃产品没法和 c-Si 竞争.
或者是因为 CIGS 的 thin-film 必须玻璃保护?
其实我也是怀疑 Ascent solar 的产品, 最终 durability 会有问题.
sorry
did
【在 H*****l 的大作中提到】
: 玻璃是必要之恶阿
: 你需要一种透光够robust,够harsh的材料保护你的solar cell
: 就算能长在foil上面，也要encapsulate 玻璃的
: 最近在NREL，看他们经常和玻璃厂的人沟通
: 现在的玻璃没有为solar cell做优化，生产流程也没有optmize
: if you go to check the write papers by that bankrupted " solar city " (sorry
: , forget the name...) several years ago, you will see the issue....they did
: many details to depth research on this...
: 基本上现在NREL毕业1个搞光的PhD，就有5-6个玻璃厂跑过来要人。。。
: 赫赫
|
L****a
发帖数: 572 | 16 这个倒是很有用的信息. 能否快速的 scale up
对公司来说非常重要. 所以象 ascent 那样的,
现在还不好说.
Emcore 是做的 MJ III-V, 但是他们的赢利很差.
我觉得加了 lens 是主要原因. 实际应用中
转换效率并非决定性因素.
diffusion)做到20% 的R&D，但是suniva的156cm2的solar cell 现在很难上17%
【在 H*****l 的大作中提到】
: CIGS最大的问题是化合物太复杂了
: 没人知道是怎么回事
: 很难控制process,很难scale up
: CIGS的champion是21%，module只能到13%，似乎还是mini module
: 相比之下CdTe的champion是16.5%,Vapor transport可以到15%
: 而First solar的量产module 都有12% 了
: 对比一下，suntech的pulton 可以到20%，但是panel现在
: 稳定在15.5%-16%，他们号称量产的电池是18%
: Gatech搞了好多年，终于可以用screen print和no LDD（一般的POCL3 single step diffusion)做到20% 的R&D，但是suniva的156cm2的solar cell 现在很难上17%
: 赫赫，我觉得最有前途的还是超高concentrated的MJ III-V...
|
a*******i
发帖数: 11664 | 17 8-10%你说的是cell还是module？cell绝对不止。
有很多公司做cigs on glass，都还不错。
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: 一般来讲, 在薄膜上成本可以做的更低, 因为是 roll-to-roll printing process.
: 做在玻璃上, 这和 c-Si 的 panel 有什么大区别? 而且只有 8-10% 的转换效率.
|
a*******i
发帖数: 11664 | 18
nod，玻璃厂最近很active
sorry
did
【在 H*****l 的大作中提到】
: 玻璃是必要之恶阿
: 你需要一种透光够robust,够harsh的材料保护你的solar cell
: 就算能长在foil上面，也要encapsulate 玻璃的
: 最近在NREL，看他们经常和玻璃厂的人沟通
: 现在的玻璃没有为solar cell做优化，生产流程也没有optmize
: if you go to check the write papers by that bankrupted " solar city " (sorry
: , forget the name...) several years ago, you will see the issue....they did
: many details to depth research on this...
: 基本上现在NREL毕业1个搞光的PhD，就有5-6个玻璃厂跑过来要人。。。
: 赫赫
|
a*******i
发帖数: 11664 | 19
~~~~ I can't
agree with this.
玻璃有玻璃的问题，薄膜有薄膜的问题，现在还不好说那个更好。但是我看在大的
module上，玻璃不差。和c-Si比的话，
这两个现在都没法竞争。将来怎么样也很难说。
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: 但是象 UniSolar 那样的 module 就不需要玻璃啊 (20 年 warranty).
: 他们有玻璃的产品, 但基本上不生产了. 因为玻璃产品没法和 c-Si 竞争.
: 或者是因为 CIGS 的 thin-film 必须玻璃保护?
: 其实我也是怀疑 Ascent solar 的产品, 最终 durability 会有问题.
:
: sorry
: did
|
j**y
发帖数: 7014 | 20 版主一定要把这个thread tzt保留一下哈
t
【在 a*******i 的大作中提到】
:
: ~~~~ I can't
: agree with this.
: 玻璃有玻璃的问题，薄膜有薄膜的问题，现在还不好说那个更好。但是我看在大的
: module上，玻璃不差。和c-Si比的话，
: 这两个现在都没法竞争。将来怎么样也很难说。
|
|
|
j********1
发帖数: 628 | 21 I alwayas have a question regarding roll-to-roll on stainless steel: thermal
expanison.
Stainless steel has a much higher thermal expansion coefficient than either
a-Si or cigs films.
When the these cell are subject to heating and cooling cycles everyday for
twenty years, how is durability and degradation going to play out? Film
cracking due to different thermal expansion or peeling off?
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: 一般来讲, 在薄膜上成本可以做的更低, 因为是 roll-to-roll printing process.
: 做在玻璃上, 这和 c-Si 的 panel 有什么大区别? 而且只有 8-10% 的转换效率.
|
L****a
发帖数: 572 | 22 That's an interesting point. I actually have no idea. I think only UniSolar' s people know how to handle this. But indeed, UniSolar's module has shorter warranty than other c-Si's panels. I also suspect Ascent's module has similar problem. They make cigs thin-film on plastic substrate, rather than stainless steel. How long will it last for plastic substrate? Is there any distortion problem due to daily expansion and contraction? Ascent just started their manufactruring, so we don't know yet
the
【在 j********1 的大作中提到】
: I alwayas have a question regarding roll-to-roll on stainless steel: thermal
: expanison.
: Stainless steel has a much higher thermal expansion coefficient than either
: a-Si or cigs films.
: When the these cell are subject to heating and cooling cycles everyday for
: twenty years, how is durability and degradation going to play out? Film
: cracking due to different thermal expansion or peeling off?
|
H*****l
发帖数: 702 | 23 that is why i said United solar is not a typical manufacturer
just big sized pilot line
UniSolar' s people know how to handle this. But indeed, UniSolar's module
has shorter warranty than other c-Si's panels. I also suspect Ascent's
module has similar problem. They make cigs thin-film on plastic substrate,
rather than stainless steel. How long will it last for plastic substrate? Is
there any distortion problem due to daily expansion and contraction? Ascent
just started their manufactruring, so
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: That's an interesting point. I actually have no idea. I think only UniSolar' s people know how to handle this. But indeed, UniSolar's module has shorter warranty than other c-Si's panels. I also suspect Ascent's module has similar problem. They make cigs thin-film on plastic substrate, rather than stainless steel. How long will it last for plastic substrate? Is there any distortion problem due to daily expansion and contraction? Ascent just started their manufactruring, so we don't know yet
: the
|
a*******i
发帖数: 11664 | 24 ft, cigs的生长温度和annealling温度是几百度，然后cool down到room temperature,
主要的mismatch是在这里吧。
thermal
either
【在 j********1 的大作中提到】
: I alwayas have a question regarding roll-to-roll on stainless steel: thermal
: expanison.
: Stainless steel has a much higher thermal expansion coefficient than either
: a-Si or cigs films.
: When the these cell are subject to heating and cooling cycles everyday for
: twenty years, how is durability and degradation going to play out? Film
: cracking due to different thermal expansion or peeling off?
|
