n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: newgumin (新股民), 信区: Stock
标 题: 底应该是已经过了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed May 13 19:13:04 2009)
不是说股指的底，而是经济危机的底。
现在银行能靠自己的力量圈到钱，无论这里面有多少猫腻，至少说明两点：第一，私人
手里还是有钱。第二，私人愿意投钱了。毕竟政府没有拿着枪逼着私人投资吧。
之后的经济走势，V不大可能，，也许是L，也许是U。之后的股市也依然会起起落落。
但去年那样，TLT直冲122的情况不大可能出现了。 |
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 2 不是说股市提前经济6个月吗？
如果上述说法正确，那么：
目前的股市底是3月份，也就是说经济大约9月份前都会比现在差。
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
: 发信人: newgumin (新股民), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: 底应该是已经过了
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed May 13 19:13:04 2009)
: 不是说股指的底，而是经济危机的底。
: 现在银行能靠自己的力量圈到钱，无论这里面有多少猫腻，至少说明两点：第一，私人
: 手里还是有钱。第二，私人愿意投钱了。毕竟政府没有拿着枪逼着私人投资吧。
: 之后的经济走势，V不大可能，，也许是L，也许是U。之后的股市也依然会起起落落。
: 但去年那样，TLT直冲122的情况不大可能出现了。
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 3 开玩笑。
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
: 发信人: newgumin (新股民), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: 底应该是已经过了
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed May 13 19:13:04 2009)
: 不是说股指的底，而是经济危机的底。
: 现在银行能靠自己的力量圈到钱，无论这里面有多少猫腻，至少说明两点：第一，私人
: 手里还是有钱。第二，私人愿意投钱了。毕竟政府没有拿着枪逼着私人投资吧。
: 之后的经济走势，V不大可能，，也许是L，也许是U。之后的股市也依然会起起落落。
: 但去年那样，TLT直冲122的情况不大可能出现了。
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 4 版主我们开个赌局，赌3个月内TLT不会上120如何？赌注500。
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: 开玩笑。
|
h****h
发帖数: 1168 | 5 ft, should be dow, not tlt.
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: 版主我们开个赌局，赌3个月内TLT不会上120如何？赌注500。
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 6
Nah, it's just the warm-up. The sh*t hasn't really started yet.
The coming collapse will be remembered as the double whammy of
the greatest depression + hyperinflation. It's gonna last at
least another 4 years.
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: 版主我们开个赌局，赌3个月内TLT不会上120如何？赌注500。
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 7 我本来就不是说股市的底。再看。
【在 h****h 的大作中提到】
: ft, should be dow, not tlt.
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 8 hehe, what TLT can tell about economy? Eventually economy will go to hell
simply because TLT drops like a hell.
And why do I bet TLT will ever rise above 120?
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: 版主我们开个赌局，赌3个月内TLT不会上120如何？赌注500。
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 9 It's the indicator of sudden-death danger. I think the sudden-death of the
economy, i.e., the acute crash, is highly impossible any more.
The worst case, I think, is another "lost decade".
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: hehe, what TLT can tell about economy? Eventually economy will go to hell
: simply because TLT drops like a hell.
: And why do I bet TLT will ever rise above 120?
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 10 American people dont save as Japanese did
they could not afford a 'lost decade'
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: It's the indicator of sudden-death danger. I think the sudden-death of the
: economy, i.e., the acute crash, is highly impossible any more.
: The worst case, I think, is another "lost decade".
|
|
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 11 It's looking more like it every day. Feb doesn't want big bank
to die, and doesn't want to nationalize them. It would take a
long time for them to repair the balance sheet. The huge money
Fed printed isn't going to consumer's pocket either.
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: It's the indicator of sudden-death danger. I think the sudden-death of the
: economy, i.e., the acute crash, is highly impossible any more.
: The worst case, I think, is another "lost decade".
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 12 政客的利益是只要不出乱子。
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: It's looking more like it every day. Feb doesn't want big bank
: to die, and doesn't want to nationalize them. It would take a
: long time for them to repair the balance sheet. The huge money
: Fed printed isn't going to consumer's pocket either.
|
t********n
发帖数: 71 | 13 That's the most absurd common belief. Do not fall for that.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 不是说股市提前经济6个月吗？
: 如果上述说法正确，那么：
: 目前的股市底是3月份，也就是说经济大约9月份前都会比现在差。
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 14 You under estimate those guys in banks. I believe they could easily bring
back their balance sheets into a very nice pictures and they are doing now.
However that doesn't say the Economy could recover soon, but it will when
the credit markets is keep getting better and better.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: It's looking more like it every day. Feb doesn't want big bank
: to die, and doesn't want to nationalize them. It would take a
: long time for them to repair the balance sheet. The huge money
: Fed printed isn't going to consumer's pocket either.
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 15 They are borrowing huge money at a high rate just to keep enough
liquidation. And they don't dare to lend much at this point, I don't
see how they can come out of this mess quickly.
Let's put it this way, last mild recession, the bear market lasted 3
years. Current 2nd worst recession in the history, 18 months. Fed
printed enough money to keep the market floated, but that doesn't mean
corporates are profitable. What's the big diff between USA of today and
Japan after 1990?
.
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: You under estimate those guys in banks. I believe they could easily bring
: back their balance sheets into a very nice pictures and they are doing now.
: However that doesn't say the Economy could recover soon, but it will when
: the credit markets is keep getting better and better.
|
s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 16 Last mild recession only last like half a year, and we are officially in
this greater recession for 1-1/2 years now.
IMHO, last time the market drops too early before the recession because the
bubble was too big (look at the valuation compared to this one) so that you
get a much longer bear market than then recession.
This time things are different. The market respond too mildly and too late
in the 10/2007-09/2008 period. When we are 1-1/2 years within the recession,
if we project the economy to
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: They are borrowing huge money at a high rate just to keep enough
: liquidation. And they don't dare to lend much at this point, I don't
: see how they can come out of this mess quickly.
: Let's put it this way, last mild recession, the bear market lasted 3
: years. Current 2nd worst recession in the history, 18 months. Fed
: printed enough money to keep the market floated, but that doesn't mean
: corporates are profitable. What's the big diff between USA of today and
: Japan after 1990?
:
: .
|
m**********r
发帖数: 887 | |
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 18 I am not stubborn, I wouldn't mind changing my bearish view when I see
positive GDP growth. Half a year late from the bottom in the bull market
is nothing, I may miss initial 30%-50% but I can easily get double in 5-6
years nontheless, and I would still beat methods like DCA easily, with much
lower risk. I would never buy when the index runs into 200MA and the MA is
lowering.
For now, I'd rather hold my view of too good to be true.
US has been counting on money printing for decades, but I don't
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: Last mild recession only last like half a year, and we are officially in
: this greater recession for 1-1/2 years now.
: IMHO, last time the market drops too early before the recession because the
: bubble was too big (look at the valuation compared to this one) so that you
: get a much longer bear market than then recession.
: This time things are different. The market respond too mildly and too late
: in the 10/2007-09/2008 period. When we are 1-1/2 years within the recession,
: if we project the economy to
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 19 Where does your huge borrowing cost come from? I assume cost of equity
issuance should be zero, right? Corporate spread has been narrowed since
start of the year, and there is still much room for tightening. The picture
is not worse but moderately better.
As to recession cycle, I suggest not to only look at history. This crisis is
much different from any crisis in the history. Global trade has really
picked up in last decade and it should be a matter of all the trading
partners for U.S. to recov
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: They are borrowing huge money at a high rate just to keep enough
: liquidation. And they don't dare to lend much at this point, I don't
: see how they can come out of this mess quickly.
: Let's put it this way, last mild recession, the bear market lasted 3
: years. Current 2nd worst recession in the history, 18 months. Fed
: printed enough money to keep the market floated, but that doesn't mean
: corporates are profitable. What's the big diff between USA of today and
: Japan after 1990?
:
: .
|
S******n
发帖数: 617 | 20 Banks have lost their earning power.
Balance sheets are open to cook whatever they can.
.
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: You under estimate those guys in banks. I believe they could easily bring
: back their balance sheets into a very nice pictures and they are doing now.
: However that doesn't say the Economy could recover soon, but it will when
: the credit markets is keep getting better and better.
|
|
|
s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 21 Agree, their previous strong earning power was just an illusion. They packed
all the future cash flows into derivative products and booked them into
their current profits by selling them out.
Their true earning power was not as strong as it seemed to be, and it has
decreased and will decrease tremendously in the future with the deleveraging
process and more regulations.
Fed's strategy is to keep them float and let them swallow the bad debts
gradually with their humble earnings. It may take decad
【在 S******n 的大作中提到】
: Banks have lost their earning power.
: Balance sheets are open to cook whatever they can.
:
: .
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 22 I do doubt whether know anything about how banks make money.
【在 S******n 的大作中提到】
: Banks have lost their earning power.
: Balance sheets are open to cook whatever they can.
:
: .
|
a**e
发帖数: 5794 | 23 英译汉高手出来解释一下吧。
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: I do doubt whether know anything about how banks make money.
|
S******n
发帖数: 617 | 24 hehe, he meant I don't know banks how to make $$.
【在 a**e 的大作中提到】
: 英译汉高手出来解释一下吧。
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 25 financial institudes are issuings bonds with rate 3% higher than
treasury last time I checked coz stress test said they should raise more.
And the current economy (unemployment rate, GDP) is already worse
than the more adverse stress test, making it a joke.
picture
is
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: Where does your huge borrowing cost come from? I assume cost of equity
: issuance should be zero, right? Corporate spread has been narrowed since
: start of the year, and there is still much room for tightening. The picture
: is not worse but moderately better.
: As to recession cycle, I suggest not to only look at history. This crisis is
: much different from any crisis in the history. Global trade has really
: picked up in last decade and it should be a matter of all the trading
: partners for U.S. to recov
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 26
packed
deleveraging
And doesn't this sound like Japan?
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: Agree, their previous strong earning power was just an illusion. They packed
: all the future cash flows into derivative products and booked them into
: their current profits by selling them out.
: Their true earning power was not as strong as it seemed to be, and it has
: decreased and will decrease tremendously in the future with the deleveraging
: process and more regulations.
: Fed's strategy is to keep them float and let them swallow the bad debts
: gradually with their humble earnings. It may take decad
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 27 Please check how much portion they finance in debt and how much in equity
and calculate the weighted borrowing cost.
Both unemployment rate and GDP are lagginf indicators, very few use to
forecast future economy.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: financial institudes are issuings bonds with rate 3% higher than
: treasury last time I checked coz stress test said they should raise more.
: And the current economy (unemployment rate, GDP) is already worse
: than the more adverse stress test, making it a joke.
:
: picture
: is
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 28 Well, I actually know a little about how banks make money:
1) Banks lend money, and earn interest.
2) Because of 1), the more they lend, the more they earn.
3) Unfortunately, right now total consumer debt level is at
historical low in a while.
4) From 2) and 3), banks don't earn much.
Reasonable? :-)
【在 S******n 的大作中提到】
: hehe, he meant I don't know banks how to make $$.
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 29 They are under 1-25 leverage, in other words, worse than Fed would like
to see in worst situation. In other words, they are insolvent if Fed doesn't
keep them float.
And regarding unemployment rate a lagging indicator, check this out.
I don't necessarily agree all these points, but it's true this is the
first deflational recession since 1930 and you don't take it for granted
either.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/faith-based-economics/
“Normally, labor markets lag the economy because incre
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: Please check how much portion they finance in debt and how much in equity
: and calculate the weighted borrowing cost.
: Both unemployment rate and GDP are lagginf indicators, very few use to
: forecast future economy.
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 30 They can't find enough borrowers they'd trust to repay the money back,
let alone interests. No doubt they aint' issuing many credits.
On the other hand, defaults are happening in every of their products.
Prime, Credit card defaults are all at or near all time high. Much
of their profit they took granted in the past, right now they can't
even get the principle back. And if not Fed changing the rules, they
have no more assets to write down.
Banks can't repair their balance sheet before the GDP gro
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Well, I actually know a little about how banks make money:
: 1) Banks lend money, and earn interest.
: 2) Because of 1), the more they lend, the more they earn.
: 3) Unfortunately, right now total consumer debt level is at
: historical low in a while.
: 4) From 2) and 3), banks don't earn much.
: Reasonable? :-)
|
|
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 31 You only talked one side of the bank business which is the basic business of
commerical bank. Except lending, commericial bank make money by direct
inverstment like corporate equity, real estate investment, etc.
There is another bank model called investment bank, of course no more exists
as a single model in US any more. They make money by providing liquidity to
the market and make commission through trading with investors. Although
this model alone is no more allowed, bank holding Cos still cou
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Well, I actually know a little about how banks make money:
: 1) Banks lend money, and earn interest.
: 2) Because of 1), the more they lend, the more they earn.
: 3) Unfortunately, right now total consumer debt level is at
: historical low in a while.
: 4) From 2) and 3), banks don't earn much.
: Reasonable? :-)
|
S******n
发帖数: 617 | 32 I knew you will bring Goverment Sachs to the discussion,hehe
They are very special in terms of getting in bed with CONgress,Treasury
& Fed. Many bears agree Goverment Sachs directs all of them in fact.
Not long time ago, GS trading desk alone took a huge chunk of
with the WHOLE market.
But still, banks lost both the commissions from passing those shit
securities and their 1:50 leverage.
of
exists
to
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: You only talked one side of the bank business which is the basic business of
: commerical bank. Except lending, commericial bank make money by direct
: inverstment like corporate equity, real estate investment, etc.
: There is another bank model called investment bank, of course no more exists
: as a single model in US any more. They make money by providing liquidity to
: the market and make commission through trading with investors. Although
: this model alone is no more allowed, bank holding Cos still cou
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 33 Housing market hasn't bottomed, we are reducing sp500 earning every
quarter, so where were their profits coming from?
BofA sold Chinese construction bank stocks to put a one time profit on
their ER, GS conveniently omitted december to be an orphan month that
they wrote down 10b. Their profit is cooked and is not sustainable.
We'll eventually come out of this recession or depression. But probably
due to technology advance, not "issuing more credits" like last time.
It's not as convenient and I wo
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: You only talked one side of the bank business which is the basic business of
: commerical bank. Except lending, commericial bank make money by direct
: inverstment like corporate equity, real estate investment, etc.
: There is another bank model called investment bank, of course no more exists
: as a single model in US any more. They make money by providing liquidity to
: the market and make commission through trading with investors. Although
: this model alone is no more allowed, bank holding Cos still cou
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 34 Thanks.
How much is the typical ratio of the basic business vs the
trading business? @_@
of
exists
to
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: You only talked one side of the bank business which is the basic business of
: commerical bank. Except lending, commericial bank make money by direct
: inverstment like corporate equity, real estate investment, etc.
: There is another bank model called investment bank, of course no more exists
: as a single model in US any more. They make money by providing liquidity to
: the market and make commission through trading with investors. Although
: this model alone is no more allowed, bank holding Cos still cou
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 35 I still think lending is the key.
But the difference is to lend to people like me, who is very
遵纪守法 and always pays off, hehe. Once even I feel the need
to borrow money to do something, the economy is indeed quite
good leh.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: Housing market hasn't bottomed, we are reducing sp500 earning every
: quarter, so where were their profits coming from?
: BofA sold Chinese construction bank stocks to put a one time profit on
: their ER, GS conveniently omitted december to be an orphan month that
: they wrote down 10b. Their profit is cooked and is not sustainable.
: We'll eventually come out of this recession or depression. But probably
: due to technology advance, not "issuing more credits" like last time.
: It's not as convenient and I wo
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 36 Where do I mention GS in my post? I am so confused. A lot banks make tones
of money thourgh trading in the first qtr, not just GS. DB, BAC, JPM all did
well in this part and they may continuing doing good through the year from
record trading volume in the market.
There is no cure for the econmy without credit. I wont say real economy is
not important. Earning does matter, however as long as we can see the credit
picks up, recovry is very close. |
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 37 They ain't enough people like you in states. That's why it's
a bubble. They are counting unpayable future debt as current assets,
that's why they'll have more writedown than profit for a long
period if M2M is not modified.
Just to make it worse, people like you will be even fewer if unemployment
rate keeps climbing.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: I still think lending is the key.
: But the difference is to lend to people like me, who is very
: 遵纪守法 and always pays off, hehe. Once even I feel the need
: to borrow money to do something, the economy is indeed quite
: good leh.
|
S******n
发帖数: 617 | 38 Ditto!
There are not enough "good" borrowers to support this "borrowing to
create GDP" model.
And the numbers of these good borrowers are shrinking by week. Look
at the continuing claims, ha!
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: They can't find enough borrowers they'd trust to repay the money back,
: let alone interests. No doubt they aint' issuing many credits.
: On the other hand, defaults are happening in every of their products.
: Prime, Credit card defaults are all at or near all time high. Much
: of their profit they took granted in the past, right now they can't
: even get the principle back. And if not Fed changing the rules, they
: have no more assets to write down.
: Banks can't repair their balance sheet before the GDP gro
|
S******n
发帖数: 617 | 39 Peng to death.
Holy, you literally repeated all my words?
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: They ain't enough people like you in states. That's why it's
: a bubble. They are counting unpayable future debt as current assets,
: that's why they'll have more writedown than profit for a long
: period if M2M is not modified.
: Just to make it worse, people like you will be even fewer if unemployment
: rate keeps climbing.
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 40 puke, you repeated mine.
【在 S******n 的大作中提到】
: Peng to death.
: Holy, you literally repeated all my words?
|
|
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 41 Debt/GDP ratio can't keep climbing as last several decades. At some point
US will be hard to borrow from foreign investors without GDP improvements.
did
from
credit
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: Where do I mention GS in my post? I am so confused. A lot banks make tones
: of money thourgh trading in the first qtr, not just GS. DB, BAC, JPM all did
: well in this part and they may continuing doing good through the year from
: record trading volume in the market.
: There is no cure for the econmy without credit. I wont say real economy is
: not important. Earning does matter, however as long as we can see the credit
: picks up, recovry is very close.
|
s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 42 Very well said. But don't you guys see any way going out of this spiral?
The current method is, the government stands out to keep banks float, keep
corporates float (by government spending and stimulus) and keep consumers
float (by issuing rebate checks, etc.).
As long as we are float, we spend. We cut spending, but doing so less
dramatically. Let's try to pretend we don't carry heavy debts and keep
spending at a level close to we used to. We wait for the technology and
productivity to advance a
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: Housing market hasn't bottomed, we are reducing sp500 earning every
: quarter, so where were their profits coming from?
: BofA sold Chinese construction bank stocks to put a one time profit on
: their ER, GS conveniently omitted december to be an orphan month that
: they wrote down 10b. Their profit is cooked and is not sustainable.
: We'll eventually come out of this recession or depression. But probably
: due to technology advance, not "issuing more credits" like last time.
: It's not as convenient and I wo
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 43 If the unemployment is high, i.e., the "real economy" is weak,
how can they sustain high earnings from trading (or volume)?
They can maneuver the market and scare frogs to hurry up to
buy or sell. But that's a short term trick. Once the frogs
realize that their investment yielded 0% during the last
year, they will either become smarter or be discouraged
to trade often -- because they don't really have new money
to put into the market. A sustainable high volume needs the
support of the economy ah
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: Where do I mention GS in my post? I am so confused. A lot banks make tones
: of money thourgh trading in the first qtr, not just GS. DB, BAC, JPM all did
: well in this part and they may continuing doing good through the year from
: record trading volume in the market.
: There is no cure for the econmy without credit. I wont say real economy is
: not important. Earning does matter, however as long as we can see the credit
: picks up, recovry is very close.
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 44 That's the way, and that's the Japan lost decade way. So even if march
may be a major bottom, market may not see 1500 again in 10 years.
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: Very well said. But don't you guys see any way going out of this spiral?
: The current method is, the government stands out to keep banks float, keep
: corporates float (by government spending and stimulus) and keep consumers
: float (by issuing rebate checks, etc.).
: As long as we are float, we spend. We cut spending, but doing so less
: dramatically. Let's try to pretend we don't carry heavy debts and keep
: spending at a level close to we used to. We wait for the technology and
: productivity to advance a
|
s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 45 I bet it will keep climbing for a couple of more years and then decrease in
the best scenario. To break the downward spiral, they need deficit, huge
deficit. As of now, if they can't borrow from foreign investors, they borrow
from central bank (aka. print).
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: Debt/GDP ratio can't keep climbing as last several decades. At some point
: US will be hard to borrow from foreign investors without GDP improvements.
:
: did
: from
: credit
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 46 This is political science. I am pretty confident you will find out Chinese
still buying US treasury with foreign reserve in next decade the same with
other cash rich developing countries.
Of course US cant keep climbing their debt/gdp ratio, however there is no
second power house in the world which is close to challenge the dollar.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: Debt/GDP ratio can't keep climbing as last several decades. At some point
: US will be hard to borrow from foreign investors without GDP improvements.
:
: did
: from
: credit
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 47 It's gonna take time to balance out. But as we are all seeing, China
is seeking alternative currency in regional trading, increasing domestic
demand etc. Unless US is forcing a war, it's inevitably harder to raise
capital in the long run.
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: This is political science. I am pretty confident you will find out Chinese
: still buying US treasury with foreign reserve in next decade the same with
: other cash rich developing countries.
: Of course US cant keep climbing their debt/gdp ratio, however there is no
: second power house in the world which is close to challenge the dollar.
|
s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 48 I don't think we have a good chance of reaching 1500 in 10 years either,
hehe, unless we have very high inflation.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: That's the way, and that's the Japan lost decade way. So even if march
: may be a major bottom, market may not see 1500 again in 10 years.
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 49 You know how much hot money is waiting there for investing?
Equity market is only the smallest trading business, they make money from
all kinds of investment. FX trading daily volume is close to 3 trillion a
day, they typically charge 1 bps bid ask spread as commission. You could do
the math.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: If the unemployment is high, i.e., the "real economy" is weak,
: how can they sustain high earnings from trading (or volume)?
: They can maneuver the market and scare frogs to hurry up to
: buy or sell. But that's a short term trick. Once the frogs
: realize that their investment yielded 0% during the last
: year, they will either become smarter or be discouraged
: to trade often -- because they don't really have new money
: to put into the market. A sustainable high volume needs the
: support of the economy ah
|
s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 50 I don't think trading profit is sustainable.
They just win money from each other in the long run. You think retail
investors have infinite money to feed those big cows?
do
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: You know how much hot money is waiting there for investing?
: Equity market is only the smallest trading business, they make money from
: all kinds of investment. FX trading daily volume is close to 3 trillion a
: day, they typically charge 1 bps bid ask spread as commission. You could do
: the math.
|
|
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 51 What I think is U.S. realizes globalization is hurting their industrial
business. They will become smart and sell more technology in the furture to
boost their borrowing ablity. |
S******n
发帖数: 617 | 52 I guess it's not news that China is buying very short-term Ts and
probably holding them to maturity (no need to sell).
Today's news:
"Whether influenced or not by the much higher tenders coming in on the Fed
Passes ($45 bln tendered for $7.4 bln bought in today's pass for a
16.2% hit rate), fast money has been >>tattooing<< the bid and especially
so in the belly with the 10-year most leaned on.
Note as well, earlier this week the Bank of England (BoE) gilt pass too
saw a need to offer paper at o
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: This is political science. I am pretty confident you will find out Chinese
: still buying US treasury with foreign reserve in next decade the same with
: other cash rich developing countries.
: Of course US cant keep climbing their debt/gdp ratio, however there is no
: second power house in the world which is close to challenge the dollar.
|
e****g
发帖数: 469 | 53 The current solution is hopeless: US is following exactly what Japan did
20 years ago (and they are still in recession after 20 years). What
happened right now is Gov bailed out those incompetent
banks/corporations/individuals by taxing those competent ones. As a
result, capital does not go to the strong hands, who can actually lead
us out of this mess.
Recession is not a bad thing in the sense that it can clean up excessed
and wipe out weak hands. Then, we will have a sound foundation for the
n
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: Very well said. But don't you guys see any way going out of this spiral?
: The current method is, the government stands out to keep banks float, keep
: corporates float (by government spending and stimulus) and keep consumers
: float (by issuing rebate checks, etc.).
: As long as we are float, we spend. We cut spending, but doing so less
: dramatically. Let's try to pretend we don't carry heavy debts and keep
: spending at a level close to we used to. We wait for the technology and
: productivity to advance a
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 54 First, I don't know how much hot money is waiting there for investing,
and do you know? But I am sure it's much less than two year ago.
Second, economy doesn't come from nowhere. At the end of the day, somebody
has to produce some real goods. Robber can get rich, but robbing is not an
economy.
do
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: You know how much hot money is waiting there for investing?
: Equity market is only the smallest trading business, they make money from
: all kinds of investment. FX trading daily volume is close to 3 trillion a
: day, they typically charge 1 bps bid ask spread as commission. You could do
: the math.
|
s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 55 It's still under debate whether free market works best. But it seems to me
that the mainstream belief is that the government should stand out and take
aggresive deficit during a recession instead of sitting sidelines.
The government is bailing out the incompetent, not by taxing the competent
one, but by increasing its deficit. Hopefully it will tax everybody in the
future, but it will be a disaster doing it now.
IMO, the economy is not a simple evolution competition. The failing
individuals/cor
【在 e****g 的大作中提到】
: The current solution is hopeless: US is following exactly what Japan did
: 20 years ago (and they are still in recession after 20 years). What
: happened right now is Gov bailed out those incompetent
: banks/corporations/individuals by taxing those competent ones. As a
: result, capital does not go to the strong hands, who can actually lead
: us out of this mess.
: Recession is not a bad thing in the sense that it can clean up excessed
: and wipe out weak hands. Then, we will have a sound foundation for the
: n
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 56
You cant quantify the absolute amount. But you could measure the speed of
their flow.
I am not sure about this. Basically most part of redemption from hedge fund
will return to the same place in next couple of years especailly when they
see funds recover the lost much quicker than they thought.
As I said before, economy does matter. However you can't say US produce
nothing. Even they dont do the real manufacturing, they do sell their
products and services in one way or another.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: First, I don't know how much hot money is waiting there for investing,
: and do you know? But I am sure it's much less than two year ago.
: Second, economy doesn't come from nowhere. At the end of the day, somebody
: has to produce some real goods. Robber can get rich, but robbing is not an
: economy.
:
: do
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 57 Seems this is back to a stone age debate --- The money has to exist in one
place or another? or the money can be simply gone forever?
fund
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
:
: You cant quantify the absolute amount. But you could measure the speed of
: their flow.
: I am not sure about this. Basically most part of redemption from hedge fund
: will return to the same place in next couple of years especailly when they
: see funds recover the lost much quicker than they thought.
: As I said before, economy does matter. However you can't say US produce
: nothing. Even they dont do the real manufacturing, they do sell their
: products and services in one way or another.
|
