a***r
发帖数: 146 | 1 失业率和十年期国债收益率已经除以5，道指已经除以10000。
大家可以比较箭头所指的两个位置，失业率显著上升，国债收益率和股市也上升。然后
发生了什么？ 箭头没有标出来，大家可以自行比较2001年后半年和现在的情况。
另外声明，这是月图，所以请不要以此作为短期投机的依据。 |
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 2 Good. Now we just need another 09/11/2001 to trigger that...
【在 a***r 的大作中提到】
: 失业率和十年期国债收益率已经除以5，道指已经除以10000。
: 大家可以比较箭头所指的两个位置，失业率显著上升，国债收益率和股市也上升。然后
: 发生了什么？ 箭头没有标出来，大家可以自行比较2001年后半年和现在的情况。
: 另外声明，这是月图，所以请不要以此作为短期投机的依据。
|
a***r
发帖数: 146 | 3 No. We have already passed 09/11/2001. 09/11/2001 is comparable to 3/9/2009
. What happend after 3/1/2002 is what we are waiting for.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Good. Now we just need another 09/11/2001 to trigger that...
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 4 Layoff may have peaked
http://tiny.cc/qLSqk
This is 4 weeks moving average of new UI claim.
Recovery may be sluggish but downturn may be over. |
a***r
发帖数: 146 | 5 Perfect! We are now around beginning of 2002. 4-week average of initial
claims has peaked, the fast rising phase of unemployment rate is almost over
, but unemployment rate will still gradually increase. Take a look at what
happend to the stock market when this happens.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: Layoff may have peaked
: http://tiny.cc/qLSqk
: This is 4 weeks moving average of new UI claim.
: Recovery may be sluggish but downturn may be over.
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 6 If we are in the beginning of 2002, market will stablize for at least
another 6 months before deteriorate again. It's possible we are at
04/2002. But we'll need to go below 8000 first to confirm.
Anything is possible but as a TA, I'd prefer following the market, not
predicting. We just made a higher high and that's bullish in my book.
over
【在 a***r 的大作中提到】
: Perfect! We are now around beginning of 2002. 4-week average of initial
: claims has peaked, the fast rising phase of unemployment rate is almost over
: , but unemployment rate will still gradually increase. Take a look at what
: happend to the stock market when this happens.
|
P********e
发帖数: 2610 | 7 其实不需要什么TA,FA
小蝌蚪看看就知道了，AMZN, MSFT,BRCM跌成这样
大盘就是跌不下去，还不说明问题啊
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: If we are in the beginning of 2002, market will stablize for at least
: another 6 months before deteriorate again. It's possible we are at
: 04/2002. But we'll need to go below 8000 first to confirm.
: Anything is possible but as a TA, I'd prefer following the market, not
: predicting. We just made a higher high and that's bullish in my book.
:
: over
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 8
What happened after March/02 was tremendous head fake that led to the
collapse of 2008. Are we waiting for that? hoho.
I think it will turn out a depreflation (depression + mass inflation).
【在 a***r 的大作中提到】
: No. We have already passed 09/11/2001. 09/11/2001 is comparable to 3/9/2009
: . What happend after 3/1/2002 is what we are waiting for.
|
j****h
发帖数: 219 | 9 I agree with NeverLearn.
Future will be a long L shape recovery lasting at least 10 years. |
g**y
发帖数: 1106 | 10 can you talk a little bit why unemployment is such a strong indicator of the
stock market now? I am sure it's an important indicator for the strength
and health of the economy, but very lack of knowledge to understand its
relation with the DJI....
help? Thank you thank you!~
over
【在 a***r 的大作中提到】
: Perfect! We are now around beginning of 2002. 4-week average of initial
: claims has peaked, the fast rising phase of unemployment rate is almost over
: , but unemployment rate will still gradually increase. Take a look at what
: happend to the stock market when this happens.
|
N*C
发帖数: 1987 | 11 那还不卷铺盖归了？
【在 j****h 的大作中提到】
: I agree with NeverLearn.
: Future will be a long L shape recovery lasting at least 10 years.
|
k****e
发帖数: 6 | 12 unemployment rate usually is a lagging indicator of economy, which means
unemployment raises after economy gets into recession, and only recovers
after economy gets out of bottom, because the firms will not re-hire until
they are sure that the economy is getting back.
That's why you see stock market goes up while unemployment still peaks. The
investors has more and more confident that economy will become stable by the
end of this year, despite of lagging worse unemployment.
However, this time, i |
S******n
发帖数: 617 | 13 失业率滞后(有商榷)，但是每周工作时间是实时的，33小时/周，呵呵
The
the
【在 k****e 的大作中提到】
: unemployment rate usually is a lagging indicator of economy, which means
: unemployment raises after economy gets into recession, and only recovers
: after economy gets out of bottom, because the firms will not re-hire until
: they are sure that the economy is getting back.
: That's why you see stock market goes up while unemployment still peaks. The
: investors has more and more confident that economy will become stable by the
: end of this year, despite of lagging worse unemployment.
: However, this time, i
|
