t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 1 几个月前用空做了一个simulation, 假设投资15, 14, 13, 12, 11, or 10年至今。
starting allocation: 20% VBTLX; 80% VFIAX
Scenarios:
1. never rebalance
2. rebalance every 6 months
3. rebalance every 12 months
4. rebalance when allocation is 3% of my target (20/80)
5. rebalance when allocation is 5% of my target (20/80)
6. rebalance when allocation is 10% of my target (20/80)
最后结果，各个scenario 之最终的收益，几乎没有差别。
结论，
(1) rebalance 没有什么大用。
(2) rebalance 也没有什么大坏处。
（我假设钱在IRA里，没有考虑税的问题。） |
z****l
发帖数: 5282 | 2 how about the following?
11/1 money market -> spy
5/1 spy -> money market
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: 几个月前用空做了一个simulation, 假设投资15, 14, 13, 12, 11, or 10年至今。
: starting allocation: 20% VBTLX; 80% VFIAX
: Scenarios:
: 1. never rebalance
: 2. rebalance every 6 months
: 3. rebalance every 12 months
: 4. rebalance when allocation is 3% of my target (20/80)
: 5. rebalance when allocation is 5% of my target (20/80)
: 6. rebalance when allocation is 10% of my target (20/80)
: 最后结果，各个scenario 之最终的收益，几乎没有差别。
|
B*********t
发帖数: 105 | |
p**h
发帖数: 1105 | 4 My understanding on rebalance is:
(1) buy when oversold
(2) sell when overbought
(3) However, high could be higher high and low could be lower low, so I have
never all-in in one time, the % of every action is about 30% of position |
t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 5 why money market, not agg?
【在 z****l 的大作中提到】
: how about the following?
: 11/1 money market -> spy
: 5/1 spy -> money market
|
z****l
发帖数: 5282 | 6 bond利率太低，增值空间小，风险大。
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: why money market, not agg?
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t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 7 Big Bull, we are talking about long term investment (>10 years). You think
10 year return of agg will be lower than money market (e.g VMMXX)?
【在 z****l 的大作中提到】
: bond利率太低，增值空间小，风险大。
|
z****l
发帖数: 5282 | 8 I was talking about:
buy stocks from 11/1 to 4/30
keep money in MM from 5/1 to 10/31
Would you please test with past 30 years's data?
I heard the average return in 6 months 11/1 to 4/30 would be 20+%. the other
6 months would be 2+%.
think
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: Big Bull, we are talking about long term investment (>10 years). You think
: 10 year return of agg will be lower than money market (e.g VMMXX)?
|
l*u
发帖数: 2090 | 9 同意你说的周期性
不过 是不是因为春夏季SP500下跌 才应该在 05/01到10/31期间大批买入股票和股票
基金
？
other
【在 z****l 的大作中提到】
: I was talking about:
: buy stocks from 11/1 to 4/30
: keep money in MM from 5/1 to 10/31
: Would you please test with past 30 years's data?
: I heard the average return in 6 months 11/1 to 4/30 would be 20+%. the other
: 6 months would be 2+%.
:
: think
|
k****n
发帖数: 1334 | 10 it didnt work in your specific simulation, doesnt mean not working for
others.
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: Big Bull, we are talking about long term investment (>10 years). You think
: 10 year return of agg will be lower than money market (e.g VMMXX)?
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|
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m**********r
发帖数: 887 | 11 10% off target is very limited. Let the bullet fly!
30-40% off target is proper. |
t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 12 30~40% off target!
good idea, then we only need to re-balance maybe every 5 years.
【在 m**********r 的大作中提到】
: 10% off target is very limited. Let the bullet fly!
: 30-40% off target is proper.
|
t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 13 correct. past performance may not predict the future.
【在 k****n 的大作中提到】
: it didnt work in your specific simulation, doesnt mean not working for
: others.
|
c**********0
发帖数: 624 | 14 What you said = the investment strategy you chose is making nonsense at all.
So you leave the portfolio to odds
几个月前做了一个simulation, 假设投资15, 14, 13, 12, 11, or 10年至今。
starting allocation: 20% VBTLX; 80%........
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: correct. past performance may not predict the future.
|
t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 15 of course investment strategy is important.
the scope of my research is limited. only looked into a few re-balance
scenarios for the last 10~15 years. The observation was that the re-balance
at least would not hurt you.
all.
【在 c**********0 的大作中提到】
: What you said = the investment strategy you chose is making nonsense at all.
: So you leave the portfolio to odds
:
: 几个月前做了一个simulation, 假设投资15, 14, 13, 12, 11, or 10年至今。
: starting allocation: 20% VBTLX; 80%........
|
c**********0
发帖数: 624 | 16 Have you thought about tax and fees?
of course investment strategy is important.the scope of my research is
limited. only loo........
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: of course investment strategy is important.
: the scope of my research is limited. only looked into a few re-balance
: scenarios for the last 10~15 years. The observation was that the re-balance
: at least would not hurt you.
:
: all.
|
f*******g
发帖数: 377 | 17 Rebalance using new money for taxable accounts...
For tax-deferred accounts, tax does not matter & fees in most cases are low.
..
【在 c**********0 的大作中提到】
: Have you thought about tax and fees?
:
: of course investment strategy is important.the scope of my research is
: limited. only loo........
|
m****a
发帖数: 2593 | 18 Professor David Swensen of Yale in his book “Unconventional Success: A
Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment” states that proper rebalancing
can add 0.4% to your returns.
Munnell, Orlova, and Webb from the Boston College Center for Retirement
Research took three different approaches to evaluate the impact of asset
allocation and came to the same conclusions. See what they had to say in
this article
http://crr.bc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/wp-2012-13.pdf |
t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 19 原帖已经说明了， 假设钱都在 IRA 里， 没有考虑税 和 交易成本。
【在 c**********0 的大作中提到】
: Have you thought about tax and fees?
:
: of course investment strategy is important.the scope of my research is
: limited. only loo........
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 20 rebalance 有没有用得看这期间有没有什么宏观上的大趋势，使得其中一种资产长期
持续outperform 另一种资产。如果没有这样的trend，rebalance 也许多少有用，能够
降低deviation （所以你的试验应该看deviation而不光是return）；可是如果出现这
样的trend，rebalance 只是让你把winner 换成loser
而已，为什么能帮到你呢？
Vanguard的research report:
https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/icrpr.pdf
https://institutional.vanguard.com/iwe/pdf/FAIPRTP.pdf
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: 原帖已经说明了， 假设钱都在 IRA 里， 没有考虑税 和 交易成本。
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 21 Reblance is mostly about risk control.
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: 原帖已经说明了， 假设钱都在 IRA 里， 没有考虑税 和 交易成本。
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