d**********0
发帖数: 44 | 1 https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/snapchat-ceo-facebook-violently-implode-
nicholas-carlson
Facebook Doomed To Be Yahoo, Says Snapchat CEO
Dec 29, 2014 74,532views 527Likes 226CommentsShare on LinkedInShare
on FacebookShare on Google PlusShare on Twitter
Will Facebook go the way of Yahoo? Snapchat CEO Evan Spiegel thinks so.
During the dot-com boom, Yahoo reached a $128 billion market cap on massive,
fast-growing advertising revenues. Then, when the bubble burst, Yahoo's
market cap shrank to less than $10 billion.
The reason: The companies buying Yahoo's ads weren't traditional brand
advertisers — the kinds of companies that bought TV and magazine ads. They
were dot-coms themselves. They were paying inordinate sums to become Yahoo's
official partners in various sectors, from greeting cards to pet stores to
travel.
The money they were spending on ads wasn't coming from their own revenues,
but from investments made by venture capitalists.
When the bubble burst and venture-capital funding dried up for startups,
Yahoo's source of revenues went away too.
In an email leaked in the recent Sony hack, Spiegel says he thinks a similar
fate awaits Facebook.
He believes Facebook's ad revenues are also overdependent on venture-backed
startups buying traffic and users. Only instead of buying links on the Yahoo
homepage, they're buying app install ads.
Spiegel thinks that if venture-capital funding for startups dries up — and
he believes it might, when the Fed stops printing money and inflating public
tech stocks — Facebook will suddenly, and violently, shrink.
"Facebook has continued to perform in the market despite declining user
engagement and pullback of brand advertising dollars — largely due to
mobile advertising performance, especially app install advertisements," he
writes.
"This is a huge red flag because it indicates that sustainable brand dollars
have not yet moved to Facebook mobile platform and mobile revenue growth
has been driven by technology companies (many of which are VC funded).
"VC dollars are being spent on user acquisition despite unknown [lifetime
value] of users — a recipe for disaster.
"This props up Facebook's share price and continues to justify VC investment
in technology products based on abnormally large market cap companies (i.e.
, "If this company attracts just 5% of users that FB has, it will be HUGE"
— fuels spend on user acquisition as user growth is tied to values).
"When the market for tech stocks cools, Facebook market cap will plummet,
access to capital for unproven businesses will become inaccessible, and ad
spend on user acquisition will rapidly decrease — compounding problems for
Facebook and driving stock even lower."
Spiegel's views on Facebook are unusually bearish. He doesn't seem to
appreciate how many traditional advertisers are switching their spending
from TV, magazines, and billboards to Facebook. They are spending more than
a billion dollars marketing on Facebook every quarter.
At Business Insider's annual conference earlier this month, we asked a
Target executive which she'd cut first: TV ad spending or Facebook spending.
In an upset for Facebook, she said it would be a really hard choice.
Ultimately, she said that TV is more important for establishing Target's
brand, but that Facebook is a crucial and big part of the company's
marketing mix. She said she'd cut spending everywhere else (except TV)
before cutting Facebook.
It's also important to understand the context around Spiegel's email. He was
sending a note to an investor in his company not long after he rejected a $
3 billion acquisition offer from Facebook. It was in his interest at the
time to assure this investor that Snapchat had a better future as an
independent company than it did inside Facebook.
All that said, it is true that Facebook is at least somewhat dependent on
venture-capital-backed startups spending money to buy users who may not
prove to become valuable customers in the long term. The Wall Street Journal
's Mike Shields reports that, generally, Facebook's app-install ad customers
are startups that make mobile games.
The problem for Facebook investors is that the company will not say how
dependent it is on those types of ad buyers.
During Facebook's last conference call with investors and analysts, COO
Sheryl Sandberg was asked how dependent the company is on mobile app ads
sold to "developers" — code for venture-backed app makers.
She said, "Our growth in mobile ads is very broad based. It's across all
market or segments, and it's across all of our different ad formats, and we
talk about our mobile ad business growing. Mobile app ads are a small part
of that, that's growing in line with our total business.
"The other thing that I think people get a little confused about is who is
using mobile app ads," she said. "I think commonly when you think about
mobile app ads, people often think about developers, and developers are
moving them, and we're pleased we're able to help them grow. But they're
also being used by some of the largest branders and marketers in the world."
That's a somewhat informative answer from Sandberg. She's saying Facebook
investors shouldn't feel over-exposed to the venture-capital market. But it'
s an incomplete answer. She should tell investors exactly how exposed they
are. Facebook should, as soon as possible, begin to break out how much of
its revenues are generated by app install ads. |
r**********g
发帖数: 22734 | 2 去年的东西拿出来有意思吗
LinkedInShare
massive,
【在 d**********0 的大作中提到】
: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/snapchat-ceo-facebook-violently-implode-
: nicholas-carlson
: Facebook Doomed To Be Yahoo, Says Snapchat CEO
: Dec 29, 2014 74,532views 527Likes 226CommentsShare on LinkedInShare
: on FacebookShare on Google PlusShare on Twitter
: Will Facebook go the way of Yahoo? Snapchat CEO Evan Spiegel thinks so.
: During the dot-com boom, Yahoo reached a $128 billion market cap on massive,
: fast-growing advertising revenues. Then, when the bubble burst, Yahoo's
: market cap shrank to less than $10 billion.
: The reason: The companies buying Yahoo's ads weren't traditional brand
|
b**********5
发帖数: 7881 | 3 u can say that to every tech company... or every non-tech companies...
or every human...
everything is like a "y = -x^2" curve, u climb, climb, climb and hit the
peak, and going down and down and down... |
S*******w
发帖数: 24236 | 4 facebook成为yahoo不是你要关心的问题 这是mark的问题。。
你只要能升职加薪 赚钱就行了。。 |
S*******w
发帖数: 24236 | 5 facebook成为yahoo不是你要关心的问题 这是mark的问题。。
你只要能升职加薪 赚钱就行了。。 |
T*****9
发帖数: 2484 | 6 facebook发钱很多啊
【在 S*******w 的大作中提到】
: facebook成为yahoo不是你要关心的问题 这是mark的问题。。
: 你只要能升职加薪 赚钱就行了。。
|
s**x
发帖数: 7506 | 7 典型的羡慕嫉妒恨。Google 2002 dot com burst 的危机中逆境崛起， fb 在2009 金
融危机中逆市崛起。
Yahoo 是web 1.0, Google 是2.0 fb 差不多是3.0. |
r**********g
发帖数: 22734 | 8 标准定义Uber和Airbnb才是3.0吧。
【在 s**x 的大作中提到】
: 典型的羡慕嫉妒恨。Google 2002 dot com burst 的危机中逆境崛起， fb 在2009 金
: 融危机中逆市崛起。
: Yahoo 是web 1.0, Google 是2.0 fb 差不多是3.0.
|
s*****r
发帖数: 43070 | 9 狗狗也是1.0，做到极致
【在 s**x 的大作中提到】
: 典型的羡慕嫉妒恨。Google 2002 dot com burst 的危机中逆境崛起， fb 在2009 金
: 融危机中逆市崛起。
: Yahoo 是web 1.0, Google 是2.0 fb 差不多是3.0.
|
T******g
发帖数: 21328 | 10 其实谷歌出道和微软有点像，都是靠傍大款出道，然后等大款发现小三有本事要上位已
经晚了
【在 s**x 的大作中提到】
: 典型的羡慕嫉妒恨。Google 2002 dot com burst 的危机中逆境崛起， fb 在2009 金
: 融危机中逆市崛起。
: Yahoo 是web 1.0, Google 是2.0 fb 差不多是3.0.
|
|
|
x******r
发帖数: 3489 | 11 re
【在 T******g 的大作中提到】
: 其实谷歌出道和微软有点像，都是靠傍大款出道，然后等大款发现小三有本事要上位已
: 经晚了
|
p**f
发帖数: 3549 | 12 一群掩耳盗铃者视而不见潜在问题。。
bubble高峰期，你怎么吹都不为过，因为此时此刻你确实nb。
bubble破的时候，马上看到是谁在裸泳。
有的high-tech根本没参与到泡泡行业里，影响当然有限，传统巨头如MS/Intel/IBM。
你这个every tech company，真是拉一票人下水，其实就只是你们social/mobile类。
FLAG都是广告公司，都是startup烧钱在上面做广告。
等vc把金库停了，startup渴死了，FLAG就死了。
FB广告靠点赞，且不说这玩意scam味道浓浓的，
号称可以targeted群体就是FB marketing想出来骗钱的东西。
真有客户相信网络牛皮癣广告啊。。不管是FB，还是G。。
说了一百遍，social就是个大泡泡，大家使劲吹。
不过马工说了，是不是泡泡不可怕，反正这个泡泡破了， 还有下一个泡泡。
马工一辈子躲在键盘后面，不担心失业。
【在 b**********5 的大作中提到】
: u can say that to every tech company... or every non-tech companies...
: or every human...
: everything is like a "y = -x^2" curve, u climb, climb, climb and hit the
: peak, and going down and down and down...
|
x*******1
发帖数: 28835 | 13 你妈，市值超过walmart，从25一路飙到80。 mitbbs永远是反之，谁信谁倒霉。 |
p**f
发帖数: 3549 | 14 那当然，现在是泡沫期嘛。就像索男吃了伟哥，那硬度是比猛男还要强。药劲过后呢？
【在 x*******1 的大作中提到】
: 你妈，市值超过walmart，从25一路飙到80。 mitbbs永远是反之，谁信谁倒霉。
|
h*****a
发帖数: 1718 | 15 第一是不是泡沫或者泡沫有多大这些东西都是预测，谁也不是神仙。
就算你预测的对，真的有一天泡沫破了，那FLG的员工钱也没少挣，也不比别的行业差
。要不你给学CS的指一条明路？:)
【在 p**f 的大作中提到】
: 那当然，现在是泡沫期嘛。就像索男吃了伟哥，那硬度是比猛男还要强。药劲过后呢？
|
p**f
发帖数: 3549 | 16 我没说伟哥不好啊。
吃了伟哥，不管后面肿么样，当下美女是艹到了，总比下室索男一辈子撸管强，还越撸
越软。
至于美女发现真相后，吃伟哥的索男早跑不见了，继续骗一下个美女。
【在 h*****a 的大作中提到】
: 第一是不是泡沫或者泡沫有多大这些东西都是预测，谁也不是神仙。
: 就算你预测的对，真的有一天泡沫破了，那FLG的员工钱也没少挣，也不比别的行业差
: 。要不你给学CS的指一条明路？:)
|
h*****a
发帖数: 1718 | 17 说的有道理，应该是这样的心态。:)
【在 p**f 的大作中提到】
: 我没说伟哥不好啊。
: 吃了伟哥，不管后面肿么样，当下美女是艹到了，总比下室索男一辈子撸管强，还越撸
: 越软。
: 至于美女发现真相后，吃伟哥的索男早跑不见了，继续骗一下个美女。
|
b**********5
发帖数: 7881 | 18 MS、IBM风光的时候， 你还在尿布里？
【在 p**f 的大作中提到】
: 一群掩耳盗铃者视而不见潜在问题。。
: bubble高峰期，你怎么吹都不为过，因为此时此刻你确实nb。
: bubble破的时候，马上看到是谁在裸泳。
: 有的high-tech根本没参与到泡泡行业里，影响当然有限，传统巨头如MS/Intel/IBM。
: 你这个every tech company，真是拉一票人下水，其实就只是你们social/mobile类。
: FLAG都是广告公司，都是startup烧钱在上面做广告。
: 等vc把金库停了，startup渴死了，FLAG就死了。
: FB广告靠点赞，且不说这玩意scam味道浓浓的，
: 号称可以targeted群体就是FB marketing想出来骗钱的东西。
: 真有客户相信网络牛皮癣广告啊。。不管是FB，还是G。。
|
r**********g
发帖数: 22734 | 19 药劲过了，来跟事后烟走人了。反正已经中出过了。
？
【在 p**f 的大作中提到】
: 那当然，现在是泡沫期嘛。就像索男吃了伟哥，那硬度是比猛男还要强。药劲过后呢？
|
h********3
发帖数: 2075 | 20 确切来说，Facebook未来还不见得能成为Yahoo了。Yahoo这10年做最成功的就是投资了
马云的阿里巴巴。然后未来10年，它每年光是吃阿里巴巴的分红都2多百亿美元收入了
。也就是说，Yahoo啥也不做，也能够活很久。而Facebook没有这种神来之笔。泡沫来
了说倒就倒。 |
|
|
c*******e
发帖数: 8624 | 21 fb的广告很牛啊,毫无痕迹,而且似乎点击率很高
【在 p**f 的大作中提到】
: 一群掩耳盗铃者视而不见潜在问题。。
: bubble高峰期，你怎么吹都不为过，因为此时此刻你确实nb。
: bubble破的时候，马上看到是谁在裸泳。
: 有的high-tech根本没参与到泡泡行业里，影响当然有限，传统巨头如MS/Intel/IBM。
: 你这个every tech company，真是拉一票人下水，其实就只是你们social/mobile类。
: FLAG都是广告公司，都是startup烧钱在上面做广告。
: 等vc把金库停了，startup渴死了，FLAG就死了。
: FB广告靠点赞，且不说这玩意scam味道浓浓的，
: 号称可以targeted群体就是FB marketing想出来骗钱的东西。
: 真有客户相信网络牛皮癣广告啊。。不管是FB，还是G。。
|
e***y
发帖数: 4307 | 22 真的很烦他家，有时第一眼没看清就点了，进去一看原来是广告。。
【在 c*******e 的大作中提到】
: fb的广告很牛啊,毫无痕迹,而且似乎点击率很高
|
l*********8
发帖数: 4642 | 23 "FLAG都是广告公司，都是startup烧钱在上面做广告。"
这是老邢告诉你的？
【在 p**f 的大作中提到】
: 一群掩耳盗铃者视而不见潜在问题。。
: bubble高峰期，你怎么吹都不为过，因为此时此刻你确实nb。
: bubble破的时候，马上看到是谁在裸泳。
: 有的high-tech根本没参与到泡泡行业里，影响当然有限，传统巨头如MS/Intel/IBM。
: 你这个every tech company，真是拉一票人下水，其实就只是你们social/mobile类。
: FLAG都是广告公司，都是startup烧钱在上面做广告。
: 等vc把金库停了，startup渴死了，FLAG就死了。
: FB广告靠点赞，且不说这玩意scam味道浓浓的，
: 号称可以targeted群体就是FB marketing想出来骗钱的东西。
: 真有客户相信网络牛皮癣广告啊。。不管是FB，还是G。。
|
e***y
发帖数: 4307 | 24 其实大的互联网公司没有几个不是广告公司，就是都是靠卖广告活着的。不过他们带来
的附加价值差老远了，像google搜索，地图等还是很有用的。但是像fb,snapchat这些
所谓射交网络对社会产生了什么价值？就是无形中制造出一大堆垃圾“大数据”而已。
例如一个teenager向另一个teenager发了个裸照。然后可以继续忽悠说可以从这里面挖
掘出更好的卖广告的方法。还有人工智能，做好了的确很有用，但这是射交网络公司玩
的过来的东西吗
【在 p**f 的大作中提到】
: 一群掩耳盗铃者视而不见潜在问题。。
: bubble高峰期，你怎么吹都不为过，因为此时此刻你确实nb。
: bubble破的时候，马上看到是谁在裸泳。
: 有的high-tech根本没参与到泡泡行业里，影响当然有限，传统巨头如MS/Intel/IBM。
: 你这个every tech company，真是拉一票人下水，其实就只是你们social/mobile类。
: FLAG都是广告公司，都是startup烧钱在上面做广告。
: 等vc把金库停了，startup渴死了，FLAG就死了。
: FB广告靠点赞，且不说这玩意scam味道浓浓的，
: 号称可以targeted群体就是FB marketing想出来骗钱的东西。
: 真有客户相信网络牛皮癣广告啊。。不管是FB，还是G。。
|
p**f
发帖数: 3549 | 25 FB可以向这两个teenagers定向发放KY，按摩棒，fleshlight，充气娃娃之类的广告。
就看这两个teenagers点裸照的时候是不是也点开了广告，然后被棒子充气娃娃激起了
强烈的欲望，进而下单购买。。。
【在 e***y 的大作中提到】
: 其实大的互联网公司没有几个不是广告公司，就是都是靠卖广告活着的。不过他们带来
: 的附加价值差老远了，像google搜索，地图等还是很有用的。但是像fb,snapchat这些
: 所谓射交网络对社会产生了什么价值？就是无形中制造出一大堆垃圾“大数据”而已。
: 例如一个teenager向另一个teenager发了个裸照。然后可以继续忽悠说可以从这里面挖
: 掘出更好的卖广告的方法。还有人工智能，做好了的确很有用，但这是射交网络公司玩
: 的过来的东西吗
|
e***y
发帖数: 4307 | 26 这种广告，色情网站早做烂了。没见哪个黄网ipo几百亿。。
【在 p**f 的大作中提到】
: FB可以向这两个teenagers定向发放KY，按摩棒，fleshlight，充气娃娃之类的广告。
: 就看这两个teenagers点裸照的时候是不是也点开了广告，然后被棒子充气娃娃激起了
: 强烈的欲望，进而下单购买。。。
|
