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l******n
发帖数: 9344 | 1 题目是decision making的inference，需要根据给定的条件判断给出信息的可信度。有
点像GRE的逻辑题，但是思维过程不一样。
题目如下：
Statement:
Studies have shown that there is relatively much more heart
disease among people living in the north of England than
people living in the south of England. There is little if any
difference, however, in rate of heart disease between
northerners and southerners who have the same level of
income. The average income of southerners in England is
considerably higher than the average income of northerners.
Proposed inferences:
1. The easiest way to eliminate heart disease in England would be to
raise the general standard of living.
2. People in high income brackets are in a better position to avoid
developing heart disease than people in low income brackets.
3. There is a lower rate of heart disease among northerners with
relatively high incomes than among northerners with much lower
incomes.
4. Whether northerners have high incomes or low incomes makes
no difference to the likelihood of their developing heart disease.
用T(True),PT(Possibly True),ID(Insufficient data), PF(Possibly False),F(
False)来作答。具体规则如下：
An inference is a conclusion a person can draw from certain observed or
supposed facts. For example, if the lights are on in a house and voices can
be heard coming from the house, a person might infer that someone is at home
. But this inference may or may not be correct. Possibly the people in the
house did not turn the lights and the television off when they left the
house.
In this test, each exercise begins with a statement of facts that you are to
regard as true. After each statement of facts you will find several
possible inferences—that is, conclusions that some persons might draw from
the stated facts. Examine each inference separately, and make a decision as
to its degree of truth or falsity. For each inference you will find spaces
on the answer sheet labeled T, PT, ID, PF, and F. For each inference make a
mark on the answer sheet under the appropriate heading as follows:
T if you think the inference is definitely TRUE; that it properly follows
beyond a reasonable doubt from the statement of facts given.
PT if, in the light of facts given, you think the inference is PROBABLY
TRUE; that it is more likely to be true than false.
ID if you decide that there are INSUFFICIENT DATA; that you cannot tell
from the facts given whether the inference is likely to be true or false; if
the facts provide no basis for judging one way or the other.
PF if, in the light of the facts given, you think the inference is PROBABLY
FALSE; that it is more likely to be false than true.
F if you think the inference is definitely FALSE; that it is wrong, either
because it misinterprets the facts given, or because it contradicts the
facts or necessary inferences from those facts.
Sometimes, in deciding whether an inference is probably true or probably
false, you will have to use certain commonly accepted knowledge or
information that practically every person has. | R******6
发帖数: 609 | | l******n
发帖数: 9344 | 3 你只答对1题
【在 R******6 的大作中提到】
: 23是T,14是F
| R******6
发帖数: 609 | 4 讲讲？
就甭等晚上了，愿意做的人不会急着看答案的。都好几楼了。 | R******6
发帖数: 609 | 5 啊，3大概是F或者ID PF or whatever，因为可能有competing risk，可能有quadratic
trend。 | p******e
发帖数: 528 | 6 我觉得1是ID，因为这里说的是‘eliminate heart disease’。即使收入的增加可以导致
发病率的降低，但是还是有可能当收入增加到一定的时候发病率就不再降低了。所以
现有数据不能告诉我们这个threshold是否存在。
2也是ID，因为可能是由于没有心脏病，收入才会更高。所以不能说高收入就‘avoid
developing heart disease’。
3我觉得是T
4我觉得是F
【在 l******n 的大作中提到】
: 题目是decision making的inference，需要根据给定的条件判断给出信息的可信度。有
: 点像GRE的逻辑题，但是思维过程不一样。
: 题目如下：
: Statement:
: Studies have shown that there is relatively much more heart
: disease among people living in the north of England than
: people living in the south of England. There is little if any
: difference, however, in rate of heart disease between
: northerners and southerners who have the same level of
: income. The average income of southerners in England is
| c*****h
发帖数: 61 | | l******n
发帖数: 9344 | 8 答案是：
1 ID
2 PT
3 T
4 F
【在 l******n 的大作中提到】
: 题目是decision making的inference，需要根据给定的条件判断给出信息的可信度。有
: 点像GRE的逻辑题，但是思维过程不一样。
: 题目如下：
: Statement:
: Studies have shown that there is relatively much more heart
: disease among people living in the north of England than
: people living in the south of England. There is little if any
: difference, however, in rate of heart disease between
: northerners and southerners who have the same level of
: income. The average income of southerners in England is
| p******e
发帖数: 528 | 9 请问怎么来区分PT和ID呢？如果现有数据有可能倾向于支持支持某个结论，但是也不能
否定相反的结论。那么我是否可以说需要更多的数据来进行分析，从而认为是ID而不是
PT呢？
【在 l******n 的大作中提到】
: 答案是：
: 1 ID
: 2 PT
: 3 T
: 4 F
| l******n
发帖数: 9344 | 10 Sometimes, in deciding whether an inference is probably true or probably
false, you will have to use certain commonly accepted knowledge or
information that practically every person has.
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: 请问怎么来区分PT和ID呢？如果现有数据有可能倾向于支持支持某个结论，但是也不能
: 否定相反的结论。那么我是否可以说需要更多的数据来进行分析，从而认为是ID而不是
: PT呢？
| p******e
发帖数: 528 | 11 我明白你的意思了。就像Bayesian分析一样。双方必须有一样的prior才行。那么请问
对于第二个问题。是不是说大家一般都先验的认为收入高容易导致医疗条件好，所以
发病率就低。这样一来就不会出现象我所列举的那种因果倒置的情况发生。
【在 l******n 的大作中提到】
: Sometimes, in deciding whether an inference is probably true or probably
: false, you will have to use certain commonly accepted knowledge or
: information that practically every person has.
| R******6
发帖数: 609 | 12 什么书的point?
【在 l******n 的大作中提到】
: 答案是：
: 1 ID
: 2 PT
: 3 T
: 4 F
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