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发帖数: 3299 | 1 Home prices remain tepid. The CoreLogic index
stayed flat in November. This print was up 5.6%
from last year. The Case-Shiller index was down
0.2% in October, and continued to see
deceleration in annual returns
• We expect a 3-4% growth rate in national home
prices in 2015, consistent with a 2.7mm net
demand (5.1mm existing home sales - 2.4mm
housing inventory)
• Oil prices have dropped more than half since the
beginning of 2014. While we expect the country
overall will be a net beneficiary, falling oil prices
may hurt some housing markets, particularly in
Texas and North Dakota
• Texas home prices went down over 14% from
early 1986 to the end of 1988 with oil prices
dropping around 50% in the first half of 1986.
This time may be different, but Texas will have a
rough 2015, considering housing in some major
Texas metro areas has been much less affordable
• Recent housing and economic indicators were
mostly disappointing. Net housing demand
dropped to the lowest November level since 2012,
mortgage applications plunged in despite of lower
mortgage rates, and builders’ confidence dipped.
Job creation, however, finished the year on a
strong note
• Nevada, California, and Arizona have
experienced largest home price gains since 2012
(up 51%, 42%, and 35%, respectively), which
gives investors a good motivation to sell and cash
out with a solid return. The continuous pull-back
of investor buyers may challenge those markets
Home price gains expected to moderate |
