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发帖数: 22064 | 1 http://cn.nytimes.com/opinion/20140512/c12yu/
New York Times ChinaFollow the Money, China-Style
By YU HUA May 12, 2014
余华 2014年05月12日
BEIJING — Since China introduced a floating exchange rate on July 21, 2005,
the Chinese yuan has consistently risen in value against the United States
dollar, from a low of 8.28 yuan to the dollar in July 2005 to a high of 6.06
in January of this year. But the appreciation of the yuan has failed to
convince ordinary Chinese people that their money buys more; on the contrary
, they feel it’s worth less.
北京——自2005年7月21日中国实施浮动汇率制度以来，人民币兑换美元一路升值，从
2005年7月的8.28：1，到今年1月最高的6.06∶1。然而对于中国的普通民众，人民币升
值并没有让他们感到钱越来越值钱，反而是钱越来越不值钱。
For the last nine years, while the yuan has appreciated in relation to other
currencies, it has steadily lost value at home. Many attribute this to
excess printing of currency by the central bank. The excess of China’s
money supply (known as “M2”) at the end of 2013 totaled 110.65 trillion
yuan ($17.77 trillion), four times greater than the figure 10 years earlier,
when it stood at 22.1 trillion yuan ($3.55 trillion, at today’s rate).
近9年来，人民币一直走在外升内贬路上。对于内贬的原因，不少人认为是央行货币超
发造成的。根据央行发布的数据，2013年末广义货币(M2)余额110.65万亿元，而2003年
末M2余额22.1万亿元，10年增长超过4倍。
The basic tenets of monetary policy say that for every 1 yuan rise in the
value of the economy, the central bank should add 1 yuan in currency. Any
supply of currency above that rate is excess. Today, the value of Chinese
currency in circulation compared with gross domestic product is at a ratio
close to 2:1 (in 2013, China’s G.D.P. amounted to 56.88 trillion yuan, or $
9.31 trillion).
按照货币学基本原理，一个国家或地区经济每增长出1元价值，作为货币发行机构的央
行也应该供给货币1元，超出1元的货币供应则视为超发。中国货币总量与GDP之比接近2
∶1（2013年中国GDP总值56.88万亿元）。
Because China’s economic growth relies chiefly on investment, it requires
major injections of capital. As the government economist Wu Xiaoling put it,
“In the past 30 years, we have used excessive money supply to rapidly
advance our economy.”
中国的经济增长主要依靠投资，因此需要大量增加的信贷投放。经济学家吴晓灵说：“
过去30年，我们是以超量的货币供给推动了经济的快速发展。”
In most economies, that would lead to rampant inflation, but if we look at
the rise in China’s Consumer Price Index over the last two years, it’s
usually been in the range of 2 to 3 percent, and only occasionally above 3
percent. During the last decade, there have been only two occasions when
prices rose sharply: in 2008, when the increase topped 8 percent, and in
2011, when it peaked at about 6 percent. Why has large-scale monetary
inflation failed to trigger price inflation?
在多数经济体中，这本会导致恶性通货膨胀。可是，我们看看近两年中国CPI增幅，大
致在2%-3%，偶尔突破过3%。回顾近十年，也只有两次物价的大幅度上升，2008年CPI增
幅最高超过8%，2011年最高约6%。大规模的货币超发没有引发通货膨胀，这是什么原因？
From official quarters, we hear denials that China’s money supply is
inflationary. Sheng Songcheng, the head of the central bank’s statistics
and analysis department, said in January that the money supply was large
because the savings rate and the ratio of indirect financial investment (
that is, funding in the form of bank loans) were high. China has one of the
highest household savings rates in the world, surging recently to 50 percent
of disposable income (although it is only a minority of households driving
the trend).
来自官方的声音否认中国货币供应量存在超发现象。央行调查统计司司长盛松成在今年
1月的新闻发布会上表示， M2较大是因为储蓄率高、间接融资（指银行贷款形式的融资
）比重高等造成的。作为现在全球储蓄率最高的国家，中国居民储蓄率已经超过50%（
尽管推动这一趋势的是少数家庭）。
Economists differ as to what this all means, but one professor of literature
has coined a term for it: “the economics of corrupt officialdom.” Corrupt
officials, he argues, have a lot to do with the absence of price inflation.
经济学家的观点不尽相同，我不在此赘述。但一位文学教授发明了“贪官经济学”一词
，他在解释货币超发而没有引起通货膨胀的原因时另辟蹊径，认为庞大的贪官群体功不
可没。
Corrupt officials generally do not spend the huge sums they acquire from
kickbacks, and are loath to deposit their money in banks for fear it will be
discovered. So they hide their money instead. The professor estimates that
as much as 50 percent of the surplus money supply may have been taken out of
circulation for this reason.
贪官们通常不会去花销巨额的受贿款，也尽量不存进银行（担心被发现），而是以各种
方式隐藏起来。这位文学教授大胆估计，M2余额的50%在贪官手上，是不流通的。
China’s Internet commentators have seized on this phenomenon, hailing
dishonest officials’ creative ways of hiding money as performance art.
中国网民注意到这个现象，将贪官五花八门的藏钱方法戏称为行为艺术并罗列出来：
For example, Xie Mingzhong, a former Communist Party secretary of Wenchang
in Hainan Province, was dismissed after he allegedly concealed more than 25
million yuan in safe deposit boxes.
藏密码箱。海南文昌原市委书记谢明中将2500余万元现金藏在19个密码箱。
Yan Dabin, the former chief of the state communications bureau in Wushan
County, Chongqing, hid cardboard boxes containing 9.39 million yuan in the
bathroom of his new apartment, where they were discovered after a water leak.
藏厕所。重庆巫山县交通局原局长晏大彬将4个装有共939万元的纸箱藏于尚未装修的新
居厕所中，因厕所渗水而被发现。
Xu Qiyao, a former chief of the construction department of Jiangsu Province,
accepted some 20 million yuan in bribes. Parts of that sum were wrapped in
layers of plastic and hidden in a hollow tree trunk, beneath an ash heap, in
a rice field and inside a latrine.
藏粪坑。江苏省建设厅原厅长徐其耀贪污受贿近2千余万元，部分现金经层层塑料纸包
装后，藏在树洞内、灰堆内、稻田里、粪坑里。
Li Guowei, the former chief of the highway bureau in Ganzhou, Jiangxi
Province, buried a box stuffed with 2.8 million yuan in a garbage heap next
to a brother’s house. “I was an unlucky dog when I got picked out,” he
said.
藏煤气罐。江西赣州市公路局原局长李国蔚家里有一个高级定制的煤气罐，用来窝藏数
百万赃款。另有藏280万元密码箱埋到其农村三哥房屋旁的垃圾堆下。
Luo Yaoxing, the former chief of the immunization planning office of the
disease control center of Guangdong Province, rented a luxury apartment to
store his booty. He wrapped the notes tightly inside black plastic bags.
Despite protecting his stash with waterproof paper and drying agents, 1.2
million yuan still got moldy.
藏出租屋。广东省疾控中心免疫规划所原所长罗耀星租豪宅专放赃款，现金用黑塑料袋
扎成一捆一捆的，屋内放满防潮纸、干燥剂，但是最终1200万元仍然发霉。
The list goes on. Despite a wave of prosecutions over the past decade, there
is little reason to believe that much has changed. In December, a former
deputy director of the Hohhot Railway Bureau in Inner Mongolia, Ma Junfei,
was given a suspended death sentence for accepting bribes and concealing the
sources of his immense fortune. His annual salary would have been only
about 120,000 yuan ($19,300), but his two houses were stuffed with cash and
gold with a value of more than 130 million yuan ($21.48 million). During his
trial, Ma Junfei admitted that concealing the money he had received in
bribes was a colossal headache.
这个单子还可以继续写下去。过去十年，尽管被控贪腐的官员不在少数，但情况并未得
到太大改变。去年12月，原呼和浩特铁路局副局长马俊飞，因受贿罪和巨额财产来源不
明罪被判死缓。马俊飞年收入不过12万元左右，但他的两所房子却堆满了总价值超过1.
3亿元的钱物。庭审时，马俊飞说，他最头痛的事情就是如何藏钱。
The professor’s estimate that half of the money supply surplus has been
salted away by corrupt officials is a calculation based more on poetic
license than empirical evidence, but I have no doubt that the total of
stolen cash is big enough to play a role in curbing price inflation at a
time of monetary expansion. Like most Chinese, I am sure that those
officials who have been brought to justice represent the tip of an iceberg
of kickbacks and bribes.
这位文学教授所说的“M2余额的50%在贪官手上”不是经济学的数据，我也不敢苟同这
个具有文学色彩50%；但是我相信中国的贪官群体藏起来的不流通现金的数额是惊人的
，在货币超发时能够起到一定的抵消通货膨胀的作用。我和大多数中国民众一样，认为
已被查处的贪官只是中国贪官群体的冰山一角。
Of course, “the economics of corrupt officialdom” can’t stop prices from
rising. That is one change ordinary Chinese have become very conscious of in
recent years: Everything is getting more expensive — only the money gets
cheaper.
当然，“贪官经济学”阻挡不了物价的持续上涨，这些年来中国民众对于生活的变化有
一个真切的感受：什么都越来越贵，只有钱越来越便宜。
Yu Hua is the author of “Boy in the Twilight: Stories of the Hidden China.
” This essay was translated by Allan H. Barr from the Chinese.
余华是《纽约时报》观点撰稿人，即将出版新书《黄昏里的男孩》(Boy in the
Twilight: Stories of the Hidden China)。本文最初用中文撰写，由Allan H. Barr
译成英文，中文译文经余华本人审定。 |
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