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发帖数: 7349 | 1 Messrs Achen and Bartels reckon that few variables matter anywhere near as
much as growth in disposable personal income, adjusted for inflation, in the
six months prior to election day.
Indeed, they note, just two variables—short-run income growth and the
tenure of the incumbent party—represent the most reliable predictors of the
incumbent party’s vote share (see chart). Those measures predict a close
race in 2016. |
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