s******r
发帖数: 5309 | 1 Why China could withstand the trade war far longer than Trump thinks
A man monitors stock prices at a brokerage house in Beijing. The Shanghai
Composite Index, China’s main stocks gauge, is down 23 percent this year,
making it the world’s worst-performing major exchange. (Andy Wong/AP)
By David J. Lynch
September 13 at 9:56 PM
President Trump insisted Thursday that he was “under no pressure to make a
deal with China,” signaling a readiness to escalate his trade war with
Beijing.
“They are under pressure to make a deal with us,” Trump tweeted in
reference to China. “Our markets are surging, theirs are collapsing.”
The president’s statement sought to downplay any hope that the United
States would extend a hand toward reconciling the trade conflict, amid word
that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had invited Chinese officials to
return to talks.
Trump’s view that the Chinese are suffering while the U.S. thrives helps
explain his confidence that Beijing ultimately will buckle. But the
president’s expectation that financial hardship will prompt Chinese
President Xi Jinping to cave in a fresh round of diplomatic talks is
misplaced, analysts said.
“There’s a lot of overly wishful thinking on the American side,” said
Jeff Moon, a former U.S. trade negotiator. “Every economy has problems. We
have -trillion-dollar deficits. That doesn’t mean either economy is in
fundamental danger. It’s a massive miscalculation.”
[U.S. companies in China are suffering in trade war, survey says]
The Shanghai Composite Index, China’s main stocks gauge, is down 23 percent
this year, making it the world’s worst-
performing major exchange.
But unlike in the United States, the ups and downs of the Chinese stock
market affect relatively few people, meaning sell-offs are unlikely to
translate into pressure on Chinese leaders.
Less than 10 percent of China’s adult population owns shares, according to
Fraser Howie, the Singapore-based author of three books on the Chinese
financial system. In the United States, the comparable figure is more than
half, according to Gallup.
In addition, Chinese share prices move with little regard for what is
happening in the real economy. In 2008, for example, stocks fell by more
than 65 percent even as the economy grew by nearly 10 percent.
“It’s wrong to think the market fully equals winning the trade war,”
Howie said.
Likewise, any wobble in the Chinese economy thus far has been modest. Though
China has slowed from the double-digit growth rates it recorded earlier
this decade, its economy grew by an annual rate of 6.7 percent in the second
quarter.
“To the extent that Trump is looking at that and thinking he has China by
the neck, he’s wrong,” said economist Andrew Polk, a partner at Trivium, a
Beijing-based advisory firm. “China’s economy has its own issues. It’s
slowing down, but it’s not about to blow up. Trump has less leverage than
he thinks.”
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at a news conference
Thursday that officials had received the White House’s invitation for talks
and the two sides are working out the details.
“China has always held that an escalation of the trade conflict is not in
anyone’s interests,” Geng said.
On Friday morning in Beijing, the front page of the state-backed China Daily
read: “US offer for trade talks welcomed.”
The president has imposed tariffs on $50 billion worth
of Chinese imports, mostly -industrial goods, and says he
will soon slap levies on an additional $200 billion. American consumers will
feel the sting of that move as prices rise for Chinese-made refrigerators,
air conditioners, furniture and clothing.
Trump says the tariffs are aimed at compelling China to abandon a host of
unfair trade practices, including forcing U.S. companies to surrender their
trade secrets in return for access to the Chinese market.
The Chinese government has retaliated with equivalent tariffs, targeting
American agricultural products in politically important states ahead of the
November congressional elections as well as American multinationals with
factories in China.
On Thursday, the largest U.S. business groups in China pleaded with Trump to
cease fire. Nearly two-thirds of more than 430 U.S. companies in China say
the duties Trump imposed this summer have damaged their businesses,
according to a survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing and
Shanghai.
Nearly half of the respondents — in retail, food and manufacturing —
reported that their production costs have climbed, while 42 percent said
sales were down. Just 6 percent, meanwhile, said they would consider moving
factories to U.S. soil, an administration goal.
“The U.S. administration runs the risk of a downward spiral of attack and
counterattack, benefiting no one,” said William Zarit, the president of the
American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing.
Most of the tariffs that have been imposed have hit U.S. companies, not the
Chinese, according to economist Mary Lovely of Syracuse University. She
found, for example, that 87 percent of the computer and electronics parts
subject to Trump’s levies were produced by American companies.
Trade-war uncertainty has contributed to a cloud over Chinese investing. But
this year’s losses in the casino-like Chinese stock market also are
nothing new — the market fell by almost half over a six-month period that
ended in early 2016.
Apart from trade worries, there are a number of domestic considerations that
have hurt Chinese stocks.
China’s market is closely tied to the amount of money available for
investing. This year, Chinese officials have tightened credit in a bid to
wean the economy from its dependence upon debt-fueled growth. That’s meant
allowing more Chinese companies to default on their corporate debt, a change
from previous years when state-owned banks would have kept them afloat.
The collapse of several peer-to-peer online lending networks also spooked
Chinese investors.
The market has been hurt by concerns about Chinese companies’ use of their
stock as collateral for loans, which leaves share prices vulnerable if they
get into financial trouble and are forced to sell. Chinese financial
institutions had nearly $220 billion in such loans at the end of July, down
about 8 percent from the recent peak in January, according to Bloomberg.
“China’s markets have dropped by close to 25 percent,” Trump said at the
White House last week. “Their markets have gone down. I don’t like to see
that. But I can tell you that the United States has picked up about $10
trillion in worth. And China would like to be in our position. They would
like to be in our position.”
But the president’s repeated crowing about China’s financial woes is
contributing to a nationalist backlash that may prolong the dispute, with
the Chinese concluding that Trump is seeking more than just a level playing
field for trade.
“The way we’re going about it makes it harder for Chinese leaders to make
concessions,” said David Loevinger, a former financial officer at the U.S.
Embassy in Beijing. “The U.S. has a one-pronged strategy — keep raising
the pain threshold until the other side cries uncle.”
Some of the president’s top advisers see the financial market slump as a
reflection of broader economic problems in China. “What are these stock
markets telling you?” Lawrence Kudlow, director of the National Economic
Council, said on CNBC last week. “China is moving lower in their economy.
The U.S. is moving higher. We’re the hottest place in the world.”
It is true that the U.S. economy is hitting on all cylinders. The 3.9
percent unemployment rate is approaching half-century lows, while the
expansion that began in June 2009 shows no sign of losing steam. Optimism
among small-business owners recently hit a 45-year record.
“The Economy is soooo good, perhaps the best in our country’s history (
remember, it’s the economy stupid!),” Trump boasted earlier this week on
Twitter.
China’s gradual slowing comes as the government is attempting to engineer a
shift from growth based on heavy investment in infrastructure and exports
to an economy powered by domestic consumption, according to William Overholt
, a senior fellow at Harvard University’s Asia Center.
Uncertainty arising from Trump trade policies will lead to a global slowdown
in growth next year, according to BNP Paribas. The bank’s latest forecast,
released this week, calls for China’s economy to grow at an annual rate of
6.1 percent next year vs. 1.8 percent for the United States.
Many analysts point to drops in retail sales and investments as an
indication that China’s economy is downshifting. But Nicholas Lardy, a
China expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said he
doubts the economy is genuinely slowing. The Chinese government is changing
the way it collects and reports key economic data, including retail sales
and investments, making it difficult to draw conclusions.
But China imported almost 19 percent more goods in August than it did in the
same month last year.
“The underlying demand in the economy is fairly strong,” Lardy said.
The administration’s confidence that China is being hurt also overstates
the country’s dependence upon trade, he said.
Since the 2008 financial crisis, China has reduced its dependence upon trade
by one-third, according to Lardy.
Danielle Paquette in Beijing contributed to this report.
David J. Lynch
David J. Lynch is a staff writer on the financial desk who joined The
Washington Post in November 2017 after working for the Financial Times,
Bloomberg News and USA Today. Follow | a*****y
发帖数: 33185 | 2 尼玛，习大大连任期都可以延长，川巨巨还真以为自己怼的过习大大？ | a*******1
发帖数: 1 | | m********i
发帖数: 5 | 4 不清楚
偶是纯人形
物质体的纠纷不到偶
【在 a*******1 的大作中提到】
: 尼玛，华盛顿邮报是谁的？
: 不读报纸才是高大上！
| m*******n
发帖数: 4186 | | M******a
发帖数: 6723 | 6 花钱买的版面。
唉，资本家办的报纸这点不好，版面可以卖。
如果是别有用心的人，买你版面发文章，目的就是要搞垮你的报纸，估计你也会卖，就
好像马克思说的，有300%的利润，资本家可以出售绞死自己的绞索。 | K****s
发帖数: 1660 | 7 英语你过四级了吗？
【在 M******a 的大作中提到】
: 花钱买的版面。
: 唉，资本家办的报纸这点不好，版面可以卖。
: 如果是别有用心的人，买你版面发文章，目的就是要搞垮你的报纸，估计你也会卖，就
: 好像马克思说的，有300%的利润，资本家可以出售绞死自己的绞索。
| M******a
发帖数: 6723 | 8 没有。
我老那个年代，英语没有级。
【在 K****s 的大作中提到】
: 英语你过四级了吗？
| f******t
发帖数: 19544 | |
|
