f****g
发帖数: 23666 | 1 http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2013/09/23/iphone-5c-cha
iPhone 5c Channel Fill Helped Apple To Report Nine Million Units Sold
42 comments, 28 called-out
Comment Now
Follow Comments
As is well known by now Apple AAPL +0.46% reported that it sold nine million
iPhone 5c’s and 5s’ in the first three days it was available. Apple analy
st Gene Munster from Piper Jaffray and Keith Bachman from BMO Capital have r
eports this morning that attribute some if not a large number of the nine mi
llion to channel fill of the 5c. (Note that my family and I own Apple shares
).
Second Half 2013 iPhone Sales Should Reach 90 Million Or More Chuck Jones Ch
uck Jones Contributor
Apple Seen Boosting Production Of Gold iPhone Due To Strong Demand Parmy Ols
on Parmy Olson Forbes Staff
Morgan Stanley Projecting September Quarter iPhone Sales Could Hit 34.5 Mill
ion Chuck Jones Chuck Jones Contributor
Apple 'Back on Track' After iPhone Debut Sets New Sales Record Connie Guglie
lmo Connie Guglielmo Forbes Staff
Munster believes that upwards to 3.5 million 5c’s were channel fill which w
ould make the sell-through number around 5.5 million or in-line with Street
estimates but still above my 3-4 million projection. This helps to explain t
o a good degree why the lead-times for the 5c decreased to 24 hours on the A
pple and U.S. wireless carriers websites in the first three days the phone w
as available. I have a Google GOOG +0.41% Doc that is keeping track of the 5
c and 5s lead-times on these websites (Apple,Verizon, AT&T T -0.32% and Spri
nt) and have information for the iPhone 5 and 4S also via this link.
While the shares are still up about $20 to $487 today this is probably the r
eason they have pulled back $10 from its opening high.
It wouldn’t be too unreasonable for the 5c to have 3.5 million units of cha
nnel inventory as long as Apple decided to produce that many and they were b
uilt. The company had 11.2 million units of channel inventory at the end of
June, which was in-line with its planned 4 to 6 weeks of sales, so the 5c w
ould account for about 30% of it.
This note isn’t to mean that the launch was disappointing as it looks like
there was still very strong demand, especially for the 5s. Since the 5s did
not have a pre-order window it is even more impressive since the vast majori
ty of 5s’ sold were to customers and not channel fill. Even at 5.5 million
this is still 10% higher than a year ago when there was a lot of pent up dem
and for a larger screen iPhone. This is a positive indicator for sales throu
gh the end of the year as the lead times for the 5s range from one to seven
weeks.
The next data point should be when Apple reports its September quarter resul
ts around October 22.
You can follow me on Twitter @sandhillinsight or find my other Forbes posts
here.
42 comments, 28 called-out
Comment Now
Follow Comments
Print
Report Corrections
Reprints & Permissions
From Around the Web
New Exercises Can Strengthen Brain
New Exercises Can Strengthen Brain
5 Dumb Mistakes That Will Destroy Your Retirement
5 Dumb Mistakes That Will Destroy Your Retirement
How Small Investors are Making Huge Returns Trading Penny Stocks
How Small Investors are Making Huge Returns Trading Penny Stocks
How New iPads are Selling for Under $40
How New iPads are Selling for Under $40
These 5 Signs Warn You That Cancer Is Starting Inside Your Body
These 5 Signs Warn You That Cancer Is Starting Inside Your Body
Tricks Car Insurance Agents Don't Want You to Know
Tricks Car Insurance Agents Don't Want You to Know
These 7 Things Activate Alzheimer's in Your Brian
These 7 Things Activate Alzheimer's in Your Brian
How Cruise Lines Fill All Those Unsold Cruise Cabins
How Cruise Lines Fill All Those Unsold Cruise Cabins
?
ADVERTISER VIDEO
Post Your Comment
Please log in or sign up to comment.
Enter Your Comment
Forbes writers have the ability to call out member comments they find partic
ularly interesting. Called-out comments are highlighted across the Forbes ne
twork. You'll be notified if your comment is called out.
Comments
Called-Out
Expand All Comments
Follow Comments
alhorrigan alhorrigan 19 hours ago
The only 5s inventory on hand at the Apple Store in Tampa on Sunday mid-
day were a few Sprint.
Called-out comment
Reply
Author
Chuck Jones Chuck Jones, Contributor 19 hours ago
Since it looks like Apple is counting units sold when they ship there wo
uld also be some in transit that would add to the total.
Called-out comment
Reply
marv08 marv08 19 hours ago
Well, Apple did not say “it sold nine million iPhone 5c’s and 5s’ ove
r the weekend”, they said that three days after launch they sold nine milli
on. This is quite some difference, since the 5c was available for pre-order
an entire week longer, and the 5s in China for two more days (since the 18th
).
3.5 million channel fill at launch seems awfully high.
Called-out comment
Reply
Author
Chuck Jones Chuck Jones, Contributor 19 hours ago
Thanks for clarifying that it is since the launch vs. them only being av
ailable over the three days (and being able to be ordered for ten). The Chin
a site was taking reservations starting on the 18th to pick up in the stores
to avoid the riots they had with the 4S launch.
3.5 million could be high that is why it at least seemed reasonable at 3
0% of total potential channel inventory. There will be a lot of moving parts
to this since the 5 would have been drawn down and little 5s so it would pr
obably be a higher percent if the 3.5 million is accurate. But overall somet
hing that could have happened.
Called-out comment
Reply
lazyposter lazyposter 12 hours ago
@Jones,
This is getting old. In 2008, it was Toni Sacconaghi who claimed tha
t Apple was channel-stuffing to inflate sales numbers and since then, Apple
has always announced “SELL-THROUGH”.
Until Apple has told the press otherwise, do not change the program
with meaningless reinterpretation.
Please do not cite quarterly call discussion of channel inventory, t
hat is TOTALLY DIFFERENT than “sold”, “sell”, “sell-through”, “sold t
o users”. Apple discusses channel inventory during quarterly call as “Chan
nel Inventory”.
Note the difference in words?
Forget about the other SEC statements. THey are vague and Apple has
so far shown itself to be doing one better by announcing only what they actu
ally sell to a customer.
So let us end this nonsense, shall we?
First, there is question about why Apple did not announce any number
.
Now that we have the number, you all want to make this sound like ch
annel “stuffing”.
What will you do next when THAT claim is proven false?
Apple is secretly hiding iPhones in warehouses? As Sacconaghi once c
laimed? Or Apple is secretly giving them away for free?
Tiresome.
Reply
twodales twodales 19 hours ago
Gene is full of BS. Apple always reports actual sales, after all they kn
ow the activations. This “channel fill” is a cover for missing the estimat
e. What was the channel fill when he estimated 5 million in sales?
Called-out comment
Reply
Author
Chuck Jones Chuck Jones, Contributor 19 hours ago
His note said that he was not including channel fill (nor was I in my lo
w estimate). Here is some information from Apple’s 2012 10-K filing.
‘The Company recognizes revenue when persuasive evidence of an arrangem
ent exists, delivery has occurred, the sales price is fixed or determinable,
and collection is probable. Product is considered delivered to the customer
once it has been shipped and title and risk of loss have been transferred.
For most of the Company’s product sales, these criteria are met at the time
the product is shipped.
Looks like at least some shipments are counted as sales.
Called-out comment
Reply
David Ordoubadian David Ordoubadian 17 hours ago
You misunderstand what “shipments” are, whether intentionally or not.
When referring to a company like Samsung, that reports shipments numbers, th
is means Samsung has shipped phones to stores that sit on the shelf waiting
to sell. Apple doesn’t do this. By shipment, Apple means someone has ordere
d the phone and it is paid for or in the process of being paid for. Samsung’
s phones can be returned from the retailer’s shelf to Samsung. Apple’s pho
ne sales are final and they represent money in the bank. In other words, the
y are sales. Period.
Called-out comment
Reply
Author
Chuck Jones Chuck Jones, Contributor 16 hours ago
While Apple reports sales they also report channel inventory. If only th
e 5s was announced and available it probably would have been wash with the i
Phone 5′s channel inventory a year ago. Having the iPhone 5c, whose demand
seems to be below expectations, did create sales for Apple but a lot are sit
ting in the channel. Apple’s revenue and EPS will be driven by how may they
shipped and are in inventory, the key will be how quickly they will sell th
rough and if they don’t will lead Apple to lower its build numbers for the
5c.
Below is a quote from Peter Oppenheimer from the June 2013 conference ca
ll “As for the details of the quarter, I’d like to begin with iPhone. We s
old 31.2 million iPhones compared to 26 million in the year ago quarter, an
increase of 5.2 million, or 20%. We had a sequential decrease of about 600,0
00 iPhones in channel inventory in the June quarter translating to iPhone se
ll-through of about 31.8 million units.’
Called-out comment
Reply
Leapday William Leapday William 16 hours ago
The transcript you just quoted seems to indicate for Apple “sold”
means “sold” and does not include “channel inventory.” That’s why chann
el inventory was added to the amount “sold” to calculate “sell-through.”
Don’t you agree?
Reply
Leapday William Leapday William 10 hours ago
Also, don’t you think that for this type of article you had a journ
alistic responsibility to attempt to contact Apple to confirm whether Gene M
unster’s assumption is correct? Is it really enough to say that there are “
reports” describing “beliefs” when the headline is presented as fact?
Reply
grey02 grey02 8 hours ago
He was explaining the quarter so you are saying Apple is lying about
the 9 million iPhones sold.
Can you offer proof that there is 3.5 million iPhones in the warehou
ses and not in the hands of users and btw Apple is talking about worldwide s
ales.
Reply
Eric Eric 19 hours ago
Don’t pull out “My family and I have Apple shares” every time you nee
d to bash Apple. Your true interest must be short based on all the negative
articles you wrote. Most analysts are clueless when it comes to covering App
le. The company has a vast and complex supply chain that renders most so cal
led “channel checks” unreliable. Those analysts got it wrong already. Yet
you report something that’s only been brought up by those analysts who got
it wrong in the first place.
Called-out comment
Reply
Author
Chuck Jones Chuck Jones, Contributor 19 hours ago
I believe if you review the notes I have written that you will find that
most are positive, especially in the long-term, regarding Apple. I don’t h
ave any short-term investments in Apple.
You are correct that their supply chain is extremely complex. I was basi
ng my judgement on the lead-times and Apple having to sell the 5s starting w
ith orders or purchases on Friday and not having a pre-order window which li
mited sales (but not to the degree I was expecting).
I have only seen those two notes and if others were available I would ha
ve included their comments.
Called-out comment
Reply
Eric Eric 19 hours ago
Would you mind telling us how your got your original 4 million estim
ate?
Reply
1
2
3
Follow Comments
Most Read on Forbes
News
People
Places
Companies
Obamacare Will Increase Health Spending By $7,450 For A Typical Family o
f Four +278,822 views
Trouble Using iOS 7? Here Are 15 Tricks To Make The Transition Easier +2
47,320 views
Five Banned Books That You Should Read (That You Probably Haven't) +52,3
88 views
Understanding The Healthcare Exchanges +46,778 views
Top 100 Inspirational Quotes +38,807 views
iOS 7 Bug Lets Anyone Bypass iPhone's Lockscreen To Hijack Photos, Email
, Or Twitter +38,346 views
23 Things Every Entrepreneur Must Know +34,143 views
Demand For Gold iPhone 5s Is Apple-Bashing Fodder +32,383 views
Emmy Winners 2013: Complete List +26,954 views
Carl Icahn's Bet On 'Grand Theft Auto V' Paying Off As Sales Top $1 Bill
ion +23,745 views
+ show more
(contributor_data.name)!?html Chuck Jones Contributor
Follow (65)
+ show more
I provide independent research of technology companies including mobile and
SaaS Enterprise Applications. I was a buy-side technology analyst at Atlanti
c Trust (Invesco's high net worth group) for seven years and one of two anal
ysts that determined the technology holdings for a firm with $15 billion und
er management. My primary focus was hardware, software, services and Interne
t companies. Before joining Atlantic Trust I was the Internet Security Softw
are analyst for Smith Barney. I authored the most comprehensive industry rep
ort “Internet Security Software: The Ultimate Internet Infrastructure” and
an innovative analysis of deferred revenue “Breaking the Code on Deferred
Revenue”. My first entree to the financial community was at Salomon Brother
s following the Enterprise Server Hardware companies such as IBM, Hewlett-Pa
ckard and Sun Microsystems. Prior to becoming an equity analyst I spent sixt
een years at IBM in a variety of sales and manufacturing positions. I have a
B.S. in Industrial Engineering from Stanford University and a Postgraduate
Diploma in Economics from the University of Sussex, England. My email addres
s is c***[email protected]
The author is a Forbes contributor. The opinions expressed are those of the
writer.
Chuck Jones’ Popular Posts
Piper Jaffray Expects The iPhone 5S And 5C To Generate Earnings Growth I
n The March Quarter 71,308 views
iPhone 5s Lead Times Are Showing October For All Models 39,012 views
Google Guides December Quarter Estimates Down 36,432 views
Apple Vs. Samsung: Who Could Win The Smartphone War? 31,175 views
Apple's iPad Market Share Slips Farther Below 50% 28,581 views
More from Chuck Jones
Follow Forbes Writers and Topics
Get email alerts when new posts are published.
Sign up now ? | O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 2
million
analy
r
mi
shares
尼玛这傻叉 上周预计销量3-4m 脸都给扇烂了 现在很有更傻的人转载 lol
【在 f****g 的大作中提到】
: http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2013/09/23/iphone-5c-cha
: iPhone 5c Channel Fill Helped Apple To Report Nine Million Units Sold
: 42 comments, 28 called-out
: Comment Now
: Follow Comments
: As is well known by now Apple AAPL +0.46% reported that it sold nine million
: iPhone 5c’s and 5s’ in the first three days it was available. Apple analy
: st Gene Munster from Piper Jaffray and Keith Bachman from BMO Capital have r
: eports this morning that attribute some if not a large number of the nine mi
: llion to channel fill of the 5c. (Note that my family and I own Apple shares
| m**********j
发帖数: 8645 | 3 一定是托写的。
怎么可能。
版上很多人不都表示了他们自己周围的人根本没人谈及5s和5c。
一定是托写的。
million
analy
r
mi
shares
【在 f****g 的大作中提到】
: http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2013/09/23/iphone-5c-cha
: iPhone 5c Channel Fill Helped Apple To Report Nine Million Units Sold
: 42 comments, 28 called-out
: Comment Now
: Follow Comments
: As is well known by now Apple AAPL +0.46% reported that it sold nine million
: iPhone 5c’s and 5s’ in the first three days it was available. Apple analy
: st Gene Munster from Piper Jaffray and Keith Bachman from BMO Capital have r
: eports this morning that attribute some if not a large number of the nine mi
: llion to channel fill of the 5c. (Note that my family and I own Apple shares
| y***l
发帖数: 6963 | 4 5.5m sell through
所以比去年增长10%，
该人假定去年没有channel fill?
还得假设今年的channel fill没有卖出一台
lol
million
analy
r
mi
shares
【在 f****g 的大作中提到】
: http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2013/09/23/iphone-5c-cha
: iPhone 5c Channel Fill Helped Apple To Report Nine Million Units Sold
: 42 comments, 28 called-out
: Comment Now
: Follow Comments
: As is well known by now Apple AAPL +0.46% reported that it sold nine million
: iPhone 5c’s and 5s’ in the first three days it was available. Apple analy
: st Gene Munster from Piper Jaffray and Keith Bachman from BMO Capital have r
: eports this morning that attribute some if not a large number of the nine mi
: llion to channel fill of the 5c. (Note that my family and I own Apple shares
| a****a
发帖数: 3905 | 5 前几年不都是发售那几天都缺货？
现在5c不是到处有货？
【在 y***l 的大作中提到】
: 5.5m sell through
: 所以比去年增长10%，
: 该人假定去年没有channel fill?
: 还得假设今年的channel fill没有卖出一台
: lol
:
: million
: analy
: r
: mi
|
|
