k*******n
发帖数: 2399 | 1 In the future, historians may likely mark the 2010 midterm elections as the
end of the California era and the beginning of the Texas one. In one stunni
ng stroke, amid a national conservative tide, California voters essentially
ratified a political and regulatory regime that has left much of the state u
nemployed and many others looking for the exits.
California has drifted far away from the place that John Gunther described i
n 1946 as "the most spectacular and most diversified American state . so rip
e, golden." Instead of a role model, California has become a cautionary ta
le of mismanagement of what by all rights should be the country's most prosp
erous big state. Its poverty rate is at least two points above the national
average; its unemployment rate nearly three points above the national averag
e. On Friday Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was forced yet again to call an eme
rgency session in order to deal with the state's enormous budget problems.
This state of crisis is likely to become the norm for the Golden State. In c
ontrast to other hard-hit states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada, which a
ll opted for pro-business, fiscally responsible candidates, California voter
s decisively handed virtually total power to a motley coalition of Democrati
c-machine politicians, public employee unions, green activists and rent-seek
ing special interests.
In the new year, the once and again Gov. Jerry Brown, who has some conservat
ive fiscal instincts, will be hard-pressed to convince Democratic legislator
s who get much of their funding from public-sector unions to trim spending.
Perhaps more troubling, Brown's own extremism on climate change policy-backe
d by rent-seeking Silicon Valley investors with big bets on renewable fuels-
virtually assures a further tightening of a regulatory regime that will slow
an economic recovery in every industry from manufacturing and agriculture t
o home-building.
Texas' trajectory, however, looks quite the opposite. California was recentl
y ranked by Chief Executive magazine as having the worst business climate in
the nation, while Texas' was considered the best. Both Democrats and Republ
icans in the Lone State State generally embrace the gospel of economic growt
h and limited public sector expenditure. The defeated Democratic candidate f
or governor, the brainy former Houston Mayor Bill White, enjoyed robust busi
ness support and was widely considered more competent than the easily re-ele
cted incumbent Rick Perry, who sometimes sounds more like a neo-Confederate
crank than a serious leader.
To be sure, Texas has its problems: a growing budget deficit, the need to ex
pand infrastructure to service its rapid population growth and the presence
of a large contingent of undereducated and uninsured poor people. But even c
onceding these problems, the growing chasm between the two megastates is evi
dent in the economic and demographic numbers. Over the past decade nearly 1.
5 million more people left California than stayed; only New York State lost
more. In contrast, Texas gained over 800,000 new migrants. In California, fo
reign immigration-the one bright spot in its demography-has slowed, while th
at to Texas has increased markedly over the decade.
A vast difference in economic performance is driving the demographic shifts.
Since 1998, California's economy has not produced a single new net job, not
es economist John Husing. Public employment has swelled, but private jobs ha
ve declined. Critically, as Texas grew its middle-income jobs by 16%, one o
f the highest rates in the nation, California, at 2.1% growth, ranked near t
he bottom. In the year ending September, Texas accounted for roughly half of
all the new jobs created in the country.
Even more revealing is California's diminishing preeminence in high-tech and
science-based (or STEM-Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) jo
bs. Over the past decade California's supposed bulwark grew a mere 2%-less t
han half the national rate. In contrast, Texas' tech-related employment surg
ed 14%. Since 2002 the Lone Star state added 80,000 STEM jobs; California, a
mere 17,000.
Of course, California still possesses the nation's largest concentrations of
tech (Silicon Valley), entertainment (Hollywood) and trade (Port of Los Ang
eles-Long Beach). But these are all now declining. Silicon Valley's Google e
ra has produced lots of opportunities for investors and software mavens conc
entrated in affluent areas around Palo Alto, but virtually no new net jobs o
verall. Empty buildings and abandoned factories dot the Valley's onetime ind
ustrial heartland around San Jose. Many of the Valley's tech companies are e
xpanding outside the state, largely to more business-friendly and affordable
places like Salt Lake City, the Research Triangle region of North Carolina
and Austin.
Hollywood too is shifting frames, with more and more film production going t
o Michigan, New Mexico, New York and other states. In 2002, 82% of all film
production took place in California-now it's down to roughly 30%. And plans
by Los Angeles County, the epicenter of the film industry, to double permit
fees for film, television and commercial productions certainly won't help.
International trade, the third linchpin of the California economy, is also u
nder assault. Tough environmental regulations and the anticipated widening i
n 2014 of the Panama Canal are emboldening competitors, particularly across
the entire southern tier of the country, most notably in Houston. Mobile, Al
a., Charleston, S.C., and Savannah, Ga., also have big plans to lure high-pa
id blue collar jobs away from California's ports.
Most worrisome of all, these telltale signs palpable economic decline seem
to escape most of the state's top leaders. The newly minted Lieutenant Gover
nor, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, insists "there's nothing wrong with C
alifornia" and claims other states "would love to have the problems of Calif
ornia."
But it's not only the flaky Newsom who is out of sync with reality. Jerry Br
own, a far savvier politician, maintains "green jobs," up to 500,000 of them
, will turn the state around. Theoretically, these jobs might make up for lo
sses created by ever stronger controls on traditional productive businesses
like agriculture, warehousing and manufacturing. But its highly unlikely.
Construction will be particularly hard hit, since Brown also aims to force C
alifornians, four-fifths of whom prefer single-family houses, into dense urb
an apartment districts. Over time, this approach will send home prices soari
ng and drive even more middle-class Californians to the exits.
Ultimately the "green jobs" strategy, effective as a campaign plank, represe
nts a cruel delusion. Given the likely direction of the new GOP-dominated Ho
use of Representatives in Washington, massive federal subsidies for the sola
r and wind industries, as well as such boondoggles as high-speed rail, are l
ikely to be scaled back significantly. Without subsidies, federal loans or
draconian national regulations, many green-related ventures will cut as oppo
se to add jobs, as is already beginning to occur. The survivors, increasingl
y forced to compete on a market basis, will likely move to China, Arizona or
even Texas, already the nation's leader in wind energy production.
Tom Hayden, a '60s radical turned environmental zealot, admits that given th
e current national climate the only way California can maintain Brown's "gre
en vision" will be to impose "some combination of rate heights and tax reven
ues." Such an approach may help bail out green investors, but seems likely
to drive even more businesses out of the state.
California's decline is particularly tragic, as it is unnecessary and largel
y unforced. The state still possesses the basic assets-energy, fertile land,
remarkable entrepreneurial talent-to restore its luster. But given its curr
ent political trajectory, you can count on Texans, and others, to keep picki
ng up both the state's jobs and skilled workers. If California wishes to com
mit economic suicide, Texas and other competitors will gladly lend them a kn
ife. | j******6
发帖数: 1476 | 2 I heart Texas. I am sooooo gonna move back to TX. CA sucks! | c**********e
发帖数: 3298 | 3 I love TX too... hope i can live there:0
【在 j******6 的大作中提到】
: I heart Texas. I am sooooo gonna move back to TX. CA sucks!
| T****7
发帖数: 1613 | 4 TX是不是特热啊？又热又潮的？
这个是很早以前的文章了。 |
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