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发帖数: 620 | 1 [the Washington Post]
Various real estate entities have weighed in with their prognostications for
the 2017 housing market. Most observers expect home sales and prices to
moderate in the coming year. They say suburbs will make a comeback while the
days of low mortgage rates are over.
Of course, a lot depends on the actions of the new administration. Although
President-elect Donald Trump said little about housing during the campaign,
some of the issues he highlighted will have an effect on the residential
real estate market, such as infrastructure spending, regulatory and tax
reform, and immigration policies.
[Mortgage rates move higher for the seventh week in a row]
Below is a roundup of what the experts say buyers, sellers and renters can
expect in 2017:
Realtor.com predicts “a year of slowing, yet moderate growth.” The listing
service for the National Association of Realtors compiled five housing
trends for 2017:
Millennials and boomers will dominate the market. Realtor.com expects these
two massive demographic groups to power demand for the next decade.
Midwestern cities will continue to be hotbeds for millennials. According to
Realtor.com, millennials are clamoring to live in Madison, Wis.; Columbus,
Ohio; Omaha; Des Moines; and Minneapolis.
Slowing price appreciation. Realtor.com forecasts home prices will grow at 3
.9 percent annually, compared to an estimated 4.9 percent in 2016.
Fewer homes on the market and fast-moving markets. Inventory is down an
average 11 percent in the top 100 metro markets, and it is not expected to
improve next year. Homes are selling 14 percent faster.
Western cities will continue to lead the nation in prices and sales. Realtor
.com predicts prices to increase 5.8 percent and sales to increase 4.7
percent in this region.
[More homes sold in the D.C. area last month than any November in the past
seven years]
One prediction you can always count on: No matter what’s happening with the
economy, NAR is always going to say it’s a great time to buy. Its fourth
quarter Housing Opportunities and Market Experience survey found that 70
percent of people say now is a good time to buy a home. NAR also predicts
the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage will rise to 4.6 percent by the end of
2017.
Zillow says the homeownership rate will bounce back even as renting becomes
more affordable. The real estate data firm also sees a reversal of a recent
trend, predicting that “more Americans will drive in from the affordable
suburbs for work, despite urban development efforts.” Its seven predictions
are:
Cities will focus on denser development.
More millennials will become homeowners.
Rental affordability will improve.
Buyers of newly built homes will have to spend more to cover rising costs of
construction.
The percentage of people who drive to work will rise for the first time in a
decade as homeowners move farther into the suburbs seeking affordable
housing.
Home values will grow 3.6 percent.
“Those looking for more affordable housing options will be pushed to areas
farther away from good transit options, in turn leading more Americans to
drive to work,” said Svenja Gudell, Zillow chief economist. “Renters
should have an easier time in 2017. Income growth and slowing rent
appreciation will combine to make renting more affordable than it has been
for the past two years.”
Redfin predicts “strong buyer interest, better access to credit and a
modest and much needed increase in inventory will allow home sales to grow
but not as much in 2016.” The national real estate brokerage made six
predictions:
The housing market will continue to grow but at a slower pace. Redfin
expects median home sale prices to rise 5.3 percent annually in 2017
compared to 5.5 percent this year and existing home sales to increase 2.8
percent annually in 2017 compared to 3.4 percent last year. Although Redfin
predicts inventory will be up slightly, it noted that “because we haven’t
seen any increase in supply in the most affordable third of the housing
market in more than eight months, we expect most of next year’s increase to
be in the most expensive third of the market.”
2017 will be the fastest real estate market on record. Homes stayed on the
market an average of 52 days this year, according to Redfin. It expects them
to sell even faster in 2017.
New-construction growth will slow. Construction is “much lower than
historical averages due largely to labor shortages. Given that nearly one in
four construction workers are foreign-born, stricter immigration policies
from the Trump administration are likely to make the problem worse.”
Mortgage rates will increase but not too much. Redfin expects mortgage rates
to rise but no higher than 4.3 percent on the 30-year fixed rate next year.
More people will have access to home loans. Next year, Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac will raise its loan limits for the first time since 2006,
increasing them to $424,100 for most of the country and to $636,150 for more
expensive markets. “This change makes it easier for more homebuyers to
qualify for a mortgage in high-priced markets,” Redfin said.
Millennials will move to second tier-cities. According to Redfin, among the
places millennials are looking to buy are Raleigh, N.C.; Austin; and North
Port, Fla.
The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts mortgage rates will rise slightly
but remain low, purchase applications will increase and refinance
applications will decrease.
“Strong household formation coupled with further job growth, rising wages
and continuing home price appreciation will drive strong growth in purchase
originations in the coming years,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s chief
economist.
MBA expects rates on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to remain below 5
percent through the end of 2018.
“Historically low and, in some cases, negative rates around the world
continue to put downward pressure on long-term U.S. [bond] rates, keeping
them lower than the domestic growth environment would otherwise warrant,”
Fratantoni said.
Many times over the past few years the refinance boom has been declared over
only to have world events conspire to revive it. Although he adds a caveat
to his expectation, Fratantoni said he expects fewer refinances in the
coming year.
“The world is an uncertain place, and there is always a chance that rates
could drop again in response to global turmoil,” Fratantoni said. “But we
expect that refinance volume will most likely be much lower over the next
few years as homeowners have repeatedly had the opportunity to lower their
rates, and there will be fewer households with an incentive to refinance if
rates follow the path we are projecting.” |
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