d*******r
发帖数: 3875 | 1 Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Dow Stalls Out at 12,400 Yet Again
Bottom line, Dow cash has trouble breathing above 12,400. I continue to be
short here, looking for a correction own to 12,100 to take some profits, and
then again at 11,800 on a flush lower. Time will tell.
In the grains, I am wary of being long going into Friday's Supply and Demand.
After corn has had a $1.00 rally after last Thurdays's USDA planting number,
the market looks over done. Corn stocks lost 200 Million bushels, but the
market rally has adjusted for that with the sharp rally.
Corn has gained $1.00 on soybeans in 3 days... Goes to show the pro's lose
money too.
The general feel was to be short corn and long beans going into that number.
The resultant flip on the spread was fueled by large spec funds taking
their medicine and bailing on a losing position.
Now that they have bailed, a good short term play, in my opinion, is to fade
them.
Sell corn and buy beans now as a spec going into Friday's number.
If you don't want to get nailed w/ margin calls, try buying a bean call and
buying a corn put.
That limits your potential downside to the price of the options.
A longer term trade I like is buying wheat. Wheat is going to be looked at
as food source instead of corn as livestock producers look to feed cattle.
Take a look at the wheat corn spread in the past month. That's a trend I
think has some more room to grow.
The high in cold was 1,440. I am patiently waiting to sell 1450 gold. I am
patiently waiting to sell silver at 40.00
That is all for today. | d*******r
发帖数: 3875 | 2 Corn is the most volatile commodity around
First things first.
Gold: the 1450 target was reached. I exited a small long position, flipped
and am now short. I am looking for a pull back down to 1428 and then 1418.
If, however, we rotate up to to a new high, I will be stopped out with a
small loss.
Dow cash traded up to 12,438 today for a high. Dow Futures have yet to trade
above 12,377. The old high on Feb 18th in the futures was 12,379. I am
being patient with my short position. However, if we have a sharp up move, I
will be stopped out, and losses will be taken.
For Crude, June futures, I would be inclined to sit tight. We have spiked 7
bucks in 6 trading days. That seems ridiculous to me, but then again, no one
ever got a medal stepping in front of a freight train.
We are in interesting territory. The number everyone is looking at is the 08
high at 142.77.
Far be it from me to say we can't go there. We are already at 4.00 gas in
Chicago. 5.00 sometime this Summer seems a given.
I would use breaks as an opportunity to buy cheap calls.
On the monthly charts, 109.70 in CL K should be sold. Its a 62% retracement
of the larger move which topped out in July 07 at 142.91 and melted down to
55.81 in Feb 09. 109.70 is a 62% retracement of that move and should be sold.
Corn is the most volatile commodity around. We have seen a 1.05 rally from
last Wednedsay's low to today's high. My gut tells me we are closer to the
top than the bottom. However, as with every bubble, the eventual top could
very well be a surprise to us all. Corn now is acting as if we won't have a
crop this year, and the crop has yet to be planted. It seems like a rally to
be sold, especially after the move we have had in the past week.
That being said, sell it at your own risk. You'd better be disciplined. This
is a market that if you are a weak short, you will be discovered and
liquidated.
Successfully trading these commodity markets requires Imagination and
Discipline. That is all. | d*******r
发帖数: 3875 | 3 Friday, April 8, 2011
Gold and Crude rotate to the upside
Both Gold and Crude rotate up through resistance, opening the door to much
higher prices in both those commodities. 110.00 was resistance in corn, 1450
was resistanc in Gold. I have been stopped out of my gold shorts, and have
flipped long.
I am still sitting short the dow futures against 12,400.
Time will tell. | d*******r
发帖数: 3875 | 4 Tuesday, April 12, 2011
When in Doubt, Bail and Re Group
The short Dow position looks good. Now I have moved stops to guarantee a
push at worse.
Crude oil looks dicey. I am going to exit my longs on a sell stop here if we
get a move below 106.50.
Better to exit and re group than to get sliced and diced.
I still have some puts on in the crude which looked pretty negative 4 days
ago, but in the end, may come back to be a good risk reward.
When gold tests 1450 to 1445, I would look for a buying opportunity.
Right now, these crude prices are subject to the vagaries of the dollar, the
vagaries of plate tectonics and the vagaries of rebels and crazy dictators
in Libya.
If you've been reading this blog, about 2 or 3 weeks ago, I got bullish the
dollar, made a small amount on a bounce, but never got the bounce up from 75
to 80-82 which is what I was looking for.
Right now, I like buying some cheap calls here in the dollar index, or at
least building a long position here, risking one point to potentially make 4
or 5 to the upside.
On a contrarian note... We have reached the point of media interest/panic/
fascination.... with gas prices. When Katie Couric tells me we are going to
5 or 6 dollar a gallon gas, it makes me want to load up the other way...
But that's just me.. | d*******r
发帖数: 3875 | 5 Thursday, April 14, 2011
Get Short Cotton on any rally
I like selling rallies now in Cotton.
Last Thursday, on the 31st, Cotton got very bullish numbers on that crop
report.
Since then it has moved sideways to lower. When a market gets bullish news
and does not rally, that is a sign of weakness.
For a good spec, consider buying CN 168 or 155 puts for the CN 168 put will
cost you 4k. the 155 put will cost you 2K.
Today is April 14th. These options expire in 57 days on Jun 10th.
I think in the next 57 days these will be profitable to own.
That is All.
CER
Posted by Christian Robinson at 11:44 AM 0 comments Links to this post
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Short the Dow, Long Gold
Right now, I am very pleased with the Dow Short position I am sitting on.
Ditto on the buy for Gold. Tuesday afternoon, Gold dipped down to 1445. I
had buys at 1450 and 1475. Right now gold is on its high at 1468. I am
taking some profits, and moving my sell stops up to insure a guaranteed
winner.
For the time being, I think crude oil, while a choppy whippy trade. I had a
resting buy order in may crude at 105.25, but it never traded there. I could
see us trading in a 10 dollar range here between 105 and 115, but that's
just my opinion.
With gas around me at 4.05, the next level of pain will be 4.50 a gallon and
then 5.00 a gallon. I can't see any reason why we don't get there this
summer. I read an article this morning about the rise in Chinese demand for
air travel. More planes, more cars, 1.3 billion people want the middle class
lifestyle. In the end, we could all be riding bicycles here in the US and
gas will still be 5.00 a gallon.
Demand from China and India will keep prices firm.
Again, this is just my opinion. | d*******r
发帖数: 3875 | 6 Friday, April 15, 2011
Friday April 15th--Position Update
Today, I exited the 2/3 of the long gold position. 40 bucks in 3 days was a
great pop.
I have taken profits on the short Dow position, and remain net short a small
position. I still don't think this market can get above the 12,400 level. I
continue to look for a sell off down to the 11,900 level, or the 11,650
level.
I like buying July beans at 1330, and may beans at 1320. we are due for a
nice 50 cent bounce higher after the dollar sell off we saw over the past 11
trading days.
Crude oil remains a frustrating trade for me. I had longs on from 108, got
out at 106.50, could not get filled at 105.25 on a resting buy order. Today,
we are back at the 110 level, hovering at 109.57.
Sometimes the timing isnt there, and sometimes, your stops are in the wrong
place.
I still believe that the trend for oil is up. I want to see if we can break
above the 113.00
Being a contrarian, I am going to have some sell orders up there right above
113.00
level, however.
For Corn, we are into the weather market. Too wet, Too dry, all are bullish
for corn. Look at CZ new crop corn. Its telling us on the charts, that the
top has not been reached. Buy dips, but be very disciplined in your sell
stops to insure your exit point as soon as you establish a long.
That is all.
Have a great weekend. | d*******r
发帖数: 3875 | 7 Monday, April 18, 2011
Dow Short Pays off- lower protective buy stops and look for the 11,900 level
Dow short pays off our patience. 12,400 looks like a massive double top on
the charts.
We took profits on Friday. Now I am going to just lower buy stops every time
we break 50 points. I am not sure if 12,000 will hold, or if we break down
to 11,600-11,500 level.
Gold did not reach the target yet to sell at 1500. However, its nice to
still be long a small amount from 45 bucks lower... I think 1500 is a sell
the first time up.
New crop CZ is leading the way as we start with the weather market of 2011..
Continue to buy dips in CZ.
That is all for now.
CER |
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