g*******r
发帖数: 192 | 1 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/next-stop-dow-20000-2011-06-02
By James Altucher
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The market fell like a brick on Wednesday. People
can’t handle any piece of bad news without saying “this is the big one.”
We have visceral memories of May through July 2010, just a year ago. We have
visceral memories of 2008, when it seemed like no end was in sight. Nobody
wants to be caught trying to catch that knife with their mouths like in a
circus act. You get cut up that way, and the blood isn’t pretty.
But it’s not going to happen. Even God took one day to rest. The market
every now and then needs a day or two to rest. Maybe even more than a day or
two. But over the next 12 to 18 months I expect to see Dow 20,000 DJIA -0.
08% .
Here are some reasons:
1) QE2 has not started. WHAT? You might say? I thought not only has it
started last November, it’s about to end? Not true at all. Federal stimulus
takes 6 to 18 months before even one dollar hits the U.S. economy in a
meaningful way. So expect that $600 billion or more to start hitting toward
the end of 2011.
DJIA 12,280.23, -9.91, -0.08%
Dow Jones Industrial Average
15,000
12,500
10,000
7,500
5,000
07
08
09
10
11
2) Then why is the market going up? One major reason is because we are in
the third administration of George W. Bush. The tax cuts got extended. This
signaled that Barack Obama was going to pay lip service to his constituents
while still keeping an eye on the stock market. The guy wants to get re-
elected, after all.
3) Multiplier effect. Once the stimulus hits the economy, it’s not just $
600 billion. It’s probably more like $3 trillion. How come? Because when
you buy that coffee with $1 at the local deli, what does that deli guy do
with it? He buys a newspaper? And then that guy buys a donut. The multiplier
effect is up to 10X. To be honest, I’m more worried about a bubble in 2013
then I am worried about a economic slowdown.
4) Nonfinancial companies are at their highest cash levels ever. Almost $2
trillion dollars. They were hoarding the cash just in case bad times were
going to happen again. Guess what? They didn’t. But what good is that? Well…
Click to Play
Dow suffers biggest drop in a year
Stocks plunged Wednesday, suffering their biggest drop in almost a year, as
a slew of downbeat reports prompted fears the economic recovery was running
out of steam. Dave Kansas, Dave Callaway and Dennis Berman discuss.
5) They are spending it. Stock buy-backs are at their highest levels in
history. Let me tell you the rule of every market on the planet that we
learned in Economics 101: Price is ruled by supply and demand. Demand has
been down for the past two years. But that’s OK, supply is now going to
start going down right when demand picks up. $2 trillion is a lot of supply
of shares to scoop up.
6) What about unemployment? Well, according to the Bureau of Labor
Statistics, temp workers are at levels not seen since before 2009. Companies
hire temp workers first before they hire full-time workers. That happens in
every recession in history.
7) Corporate profits are at their highest levels ever. Did you know this is
the first recession in history where cash levels in corporate America
increased quarter-over-quarter every single quarter of the recession? And
now profits are at their highest ever. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to
come in at $95 next year. What if (as usual) they are too conservative and
the number comes in at $100. Slap in a 20x multiple (could happen when the
stimulus kicks in), and we have an S&P 500 at 2,000 and a Dow probably at 20
,000.
8) Major stocks are dirt cheap. Apple AAPL +0.42% trades for 12 times
forward earnings and has $65 billion in cash and no debt in the bank.
Microsoft MSFT +0.12% trades for around 10 times forward earnings. Intel
INTC +0.59% trades for around 8 times forward earnings. These are high
market-cap companies. By the way, all the major indices are market-cap
weighted. So if the big guys go up, the indices go up. All of these big guys
can easily double or triple.
9) Innovation. Barely a year ago the iPad came out. Now what’s the number
of people who have iPads? 20 million? 10 Read 10 Unusual Things I Didn’t
Know About Steve Jobs.
10) Major demographic changes are occurring that are going to affect stocks
for the next 25 years. What are they? Check my article here next week. Or,
perhaps more importantly, follow me on twitter where I engage in ongoing
discussions on these things. Follow me!
The fight never stops between the bulls and the bears. Last summer was
personally grueling for me. The market was falling on worries of Greece, an
economy the size of Rhode Island, and every day it seemed a new blogger was
using this as an excuse to write a blog specifically trashing me. It’s
usually a bad idea to personally attack someone to get your point across. It
’s never really necessary, and it’s lazy and bad writing. And yet, my kids
would Google their last name, and there would be post after post insulting
me personally for my opinions.
The market is up some 25% since then. My feeling for the next year is
similar: BRING IT ON. | s*****2
发帖数: 1035 | 2 先看看这些人自己的仓位再说.
14.7 T 的 DEBT, 还想上20000, 做梦呢?
People
one.”
We have
Nobody
in a
market
day or
【在 g*******r 的大作中提到】
: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/next-stop-dow-20000-2011-06-02
: By James Altucher
: NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The market fell like a brick on Wednesday. People
: can’t handle any piece of bad news without saying “this is the big one.”
: We have visceral memories of May through July 2010, just a year ago. We have
: visceral memories of 2008, when it seemed like no end was in sight. Nobody
: wants to be caught trying to catch that knife with their mouths like in a
: circus act. You get cut up that way, and the blood isn’t pretty.
: But it’s not going to happen. Even God took one day to rest. The market
: every now and then needs a day or two to rest. Maybe even more than a day or
|
|
