b**y
发帖数: 16 | 1 看看文章最后老先生在twitter上的联系方式，俺那滔滔的江水，啊！！。。。
URL： http://digicha.com/index.php/2011/06/if-sina-is-cooking-its-books-ill-eat-this-blog/
If Sina Is Cooking Its Books I’ll Eat This Blog
Posted by bbishop on June 5th, 2011
And wash it down with a nasty bottle of cheap baijiu.
On Friday Sina’s stock took a huge fall on more than double average daily
volume, closing at 113.87, a drop of more than 11% from its intraday high of
128.17.
There was a rumor circulating that Sina ($SINA) has been cooking its books.
I say bullshit. I don’t think management needs to falsify numbers, I don’t
think they would even if the business had issues, and if they are making
numbers up they are doing a bad job, given Sina’s results and guidance over
the last few quarters.
Investors probably have a hair trigger after the epidemic of Chinese frauds,
and especially after Longtop and now Sino-Forest, which appears to have
fooled John Paulson and cost him several hundred million dollars.
So what happened Friday? Some guesses:
1. The rumors are true, Sina has a financial mess on its hands, and
therefore the world, or at least the world of US-listed Chinese stocks, is
going to end. I don’t buy it, see above;
2. A few days ago Sina looked to be headed below $100, then had a strong
bounce. Some short sellers were in extreme pain and took advantage of the
twitchy paranoia of China stock investors to spread a rumor to crush the
stock:
3. In the wake of the Longtop and Sino-Forest messes, hedge funds with China
exposure are reevaluating and starting to dump their China holdings until
they can be sure they know what they are doing here. (I do occasionally take
consulting gigs…) I saw an investor with a large position in Longtop a few
days ago. Let’s just say that the fund leadership realized some of their
assumptions about Chinese stocks listed overseas were incorrect. I have no
idea if this fund started liquidating their China positions (I doubt it, as
they are staffing up out here), but it is possible other funds who jumped on
the China bandwagon decided it was better to leap off before another one of
the wheels exploded;
4. Sina has had a great run, it does not look so cheap, Sina Weibo has
competition, and so some big holders decided that in this increasingly risky
environment it is better to take profits while they can;
5. Alibaba’s restructuring of Alipay and the ongoing dispute with Yahoo
have made investors realize that accounting fraud is not the only material
risk that needs to considered when investing in China.
I have no idea if Sina’s stock will recover or keep dropping, and I have no
position in it. But if Sina shares keep falling, I do not believe it will
be due to an accounting scandal. There are plenty of other more likely
frauds out there.
You can follow me @Bill on Stocktwits, @Niubi on Twitter and @Billbishop on
Sina Weibo. |
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