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发帖数: 158 | 1 http://dragonflycap.com/2011/06/10/catching-the-chinese-cleaver
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Catching the Chinese Cleaver
Posted by Greg Harmon
on June 10th, 2011
Like the US Economy, Sina.com (ticker: $SINA) has hit its own little ‘rough
patch’ lately. It has fallen so far so quickly that traders are now
looking for a bottom or at least a tradeable bounce. But the story behind
this stock in the charts only looks worse the farther you step back in
timeframe. This makes it more like catching a falling Cleaver than catching
a Knife. Look at the daily timeframe chart below. Here you can see that it
has retraced about 50% of the move higher from the May
SINA – Daily
2010 low at 32.00. It has pushed out of the lower Bollinger band and seems
to have a support range from 88 to 89.56 with the next support lower at 83.
50 and then the 200 day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 81.31 followed by 78.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is becoming oversold, but not extended,
yet the Moving Average Convergence Divergence is growing more negative. So
it could stop here or perhaps $10 lower. But a look at the weekly chart
shows a more disturbing picture. Here the same short term levels of support
between 78 and 83.50 appear but then 74.95
SINA – Weekly
and then 67.26 to 69.15 below that. The RSI on the weekly is steeply lower
and the MACD growing rapidly negative. This looks to be in the middle of a
correction. But then the Monthly chart is even worse. There is no real
support on the monthly chart until the previous double top at 59.80 and then
46 below that. So are you sure you want to try to catch this falling
Chinese Cleaver? My suggestion, wait for a confirmed bounce to go long.
SINA – Monthly |
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