w******s
发帖数: 16209 | | c******g
发帖数: 1611 | 2 蛋定！
【在 w******s 的大作中提到】
: 太牛查了。
: 奔1300了
| B****t
发帖数: 3129 | | l******g
发帖数: 743 | 4 是9:1日么
是的话应该可以有1，2个月好日子
【在 w******s 的大作中提到】
: 太牛查了。
: 奔1300了
| w****k
发帖数: 10542 | 5 牛啥啊，一天的行情用了三天才走完，k。
【在 w******s 的大作中提到】
: 太牛查了。
: 奔1300了
| v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 6 很有可能啊，dow应该全绿。今天收盘比上次反弹强太多了
【在 l******g 的大作中提到】
: 是9:1日么
: 是的话应该可以有1，2个月好日子
| w****k
发帖数: 10542 | 7 qe2还是6月30日结束吗？
【在 v*****k 的大作中提到】
: 很有可能啊，dow应该全绿。今天收盘比上次反弹强太多了
| w**********l
发帖数: 8501 | | v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 9 为啥不是？
【在 w****k 的大作中提到】
: qe2还是6月30日结束吗？
| a*****e
发帖数: 1717 | 10 我订的newsletter里面提到了这种可能性.
In focus: Bears growing stronger
Plus: DTG, KKD, and CBOE equity-only put-call ratio
Stories You Might Like
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The current downtrend in the market remains intact, as rallies are
getting
shorter in time (one-day affairs, mostly) and downward moves are faster
and
larger. This is further evidence of the fact that the primary trend is
down.
In fact, considering the hype behind yesterday’s oversold rally, it is
actually an even more negative sign that it was obliterated so quickly.
The
chart of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index SPX +1.34% is in a downtrend,
and
that is the most important thing. SPX is once again nearly three
standard
deviations below its 20-day moving average (an oversold condition).
Oversold
rallies are possible, back to the declining 20-day moving average,
which is
now at about 1308.
Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals. They are getting
quite
high on their charts, which is an oversold condition, but there won’t be
a
buy signal until they roll over and start to trend downward. The total
put-
call ratio continues to be above 1.00 on most days, so it is also
oversold
and in the process of eventually setting up a buy signal.
There has been a lot of talk about volatility, and VIX in particular, on
TV
and in the media. Our position has been that the relatively low level of
VIX
that has accompanied this market decline so far is a sign of
complacency —
not any sign of positive divergence. Now, VIX is accelerating upward at
a
faster rate, trading above 20 and then 21 for the first time since mid-
March
. This will be the third time in the last four days that VIX made a new
relative closing high. The rising trend of VIX is shown on the chart
below,
and that is bearish for stocks.
Breadth has been extreme — following the market — on most days.
Yesterday
was wildly positive; today, wildly negative. On Monday, though, the
market
was up all day but breadth was negative, and that is a bearish
divergence.
In any case, these days of extreme breadth and volume are more akin to a
bear market than a bull. Breadth indicators are oversold and have
actually
given a couple of short-lived buy signals recently. Such buy signals
should
not be heeded unless accompanied by a buy signal in another indicator.
The VIX futures are rising today, of course, but nowhere near as fast as
VIX
itself. Today is the first day that the July futures are the front
month,
and they are trading at a very slight discount of 22 cents. The August
futures are trading at a premium. The term structure continues to slope
upward, so the other futures are trading at even larger premiums. A
solid
buy signal — such as that in mid-March of this year — occurs when all of
the VIX futures are at a discount. We are nowhere near that setup, and
as a
result, we are beginning to feel that the continued positive slope to
the
term structure during this bearish market phase is another sign of
complacency.
In summary, we are intermediate-term bearish. The fact that yesterday’s
rally was so brief is further confirmation of that opinion. It is likely
going to be the case that this decline won’t end until the complacency
is
wiped out, and panic sets in. That will be evident with VIX spiking much
higher and all of the VIX futures trading at discounts.
【在 w******s 的大作中提到】
: 太牛查了。
: 奔1300了
| w****k
发帖数: 10542 | 11 这个newsletter挺靠谱，到上周四的时候，确实有一批二傻子做空美股了。
可惜A股就没有这么多二傻子，k。
【在 a*****e 的大作中提到】
: 我订的newsletter里面提到了这种可能性.
: In focus: Bears growing stronger
: Plus: DTG, KKD, and CBOE equity-only put-call ratio
: Stories You Might Like
: By Lawrence G. McMillan
: The current downtrend in the market remains intact, as rallies are
: getting
: shorter in time (one-day affairs, mostly) and downward moves are faster
: and
: larger. This is further evidence of the fact that the primary trend is
|
|
