p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 1 Fed, FDIC won't change Treasurys treatment ( SP = SB) | p**8
发帖数: 3883 | | s******8
发帖数: 4192 | 3 SP降级对美国Fed可能的确影响不大。但是S&P会对美国地方政府和与政府相关企业接着
降级，那才是大问题。因为这些政府和企业，债券人不会特别了解，只能根据评级来确
定风险和利率。 | p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 4 U.S. officials notified S&P that it had made a $2 trillion mathematical
error.
---
S&P Downgrades US Credit Rating to AA-Plus
S&P, STANDARD'S AND POOR, KATE KELLY, U.S., UNITED STATES, CREDIT DOWNGRADE,
MOODY'S, MCO, FITCH
CNBC.com | 05 Aug 2011 | 10:02 PM ET
The United States lost its top-notch triple-A credit rating from Standard &
Poor's Friday, in a dramatic reversal of fortune for the world's largest
economy.
S&P cut the long-term U.S. credit rating by one notch to AA-plus on concerns
about growing budget deficits.
"The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that
Congress and the administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in
our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt
dynamics," S&P said in a statement.
"More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness,
stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political
institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic
challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative
outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011," the statement said.
The outlook on the new U.S. credit rating is negative, the S&P said in its
statement, a sign that another downgrade is possible in the next 12 to 18
months.
On Aug. 2, President Barack Obama signed legislation designed to reduce the
fiscal deficit by $2.1 trillion over 10 years. But that was well short of
the $4 trillion in savings S&P had called for as a good "down payment" on
fixing America's finances.
The political gridlock in Washington and the failure to seriously address U.
S. long-term fiscal problems came against the backdrop of slowing U.S.
economic growth and led to the worst week in the U.S. stock market in two
years.
"I did not expect this to happen this soon. This is something they gave the
criteria on and I guess they stuck to it," said George Goncalves, chief
Treasury strategist for Nomura Americas. "I really thought they'd take the
two-stage approach and see how further cuts would come along."
This came after a confusing day of reports: Standard & Poor's told the U.S.
government early Friday afternoon that it was preparing to downgrade the U.S
.'s triple-A credit rating but U.S. officials notified S&P that it had made
a $2 trillion mathematical error.
The error was in the calculation of the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio over time and
was based on a misreading of what the correct congressional baseline was,
government sources indicated. They said that once informed of the error S&P
revised its rate-cut rationale to emphasize the political aspects of the
country's debt situation.
"A judgment flawed by a $2 trillion error speaks for itself," a Treasury
spokesperson said.
Throughout Friday, markets were rife with speculation that S&P, which has
had a negative outlook on the U.S. since April 18, would downgrade the
country’s credit from its current triple-A level and that it could come as
early as Friday night.
Goncalves said the downgrade could hit market confidence.
U.S. Treasurys, once undisputedly seen as the safest investment in the world
, are now rated lower than bonds issued by countries such as the UK, Germany
, France or Canada.
On July 14, S&P put the government on a credit watch with negative
implications, meaning there was at least a one in two chance the U.S.’s
long-term debt would be downgraded within 90 days.
Earlier Friday an S&P spokesman declined to comment on any possible plans
for a downgrade or statement.
On Tuesday, both Fitch and Moody's backed their triple-A rating on the U.S.
—but with caveats.
Fitch warned that the U.S. rating "will remain under pressure for some time,
" while Moody's went so far as to slap the U.S. with a negative outlook.
— John Harwood, Patti Domm, Allen Wastler and Kate Kelly contributed to
this report.
© 2011 CNBC.com
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/44039103/ | s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 5 http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110805-718199.html
Fed, FDIC, Bank Regulators: S&P Downgrade Won't Affect Risk-Based Capital
By Michael R. Crittenden
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Washington (Dow Jones)--Standard & Poor's downgrade of the U.S. government'
s debt will not affect the risk-based capital requirements for U.S. banks,
federal regulators said Friday evening.
The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and other federal
banking regulators said in a statement that the lowering of the U.S.
government debt rating from AAA to AA+ "will not change" the risk weights
for Treasury securities and other securities issued or guaranteed by the U.S
. government or government agencies.
"The treatment of Treasury securities and other securities issued or
guaranteed by the U.S. government, government agencies, and government-
sponsored entities under other federal banking agency regulations, including
, for example, the Federal Reserve Board's Regulation W, will also be
unaffected," the regulators said.
【在 p**8 的大作中提到】
: Fed, FDIC won't change Treasurys treatment ( SP = SB)
| s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 6 http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110805-718199.html
Fed, FDIC, Bank Regulators: S&P Downgrade Won't Affect Risk-Based Capital
By Michael R. Crittenden
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Washington (Dow Jones)--Standard & Poor's downgrade of the U.S. government'
s debt will not affect the risk-based capital requirements for U.S. banks,
federal regulators said Friday evening.
The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and other federal
banking regulators said in a statement that the lowering of the U.S.
government debt rating from AAA to AA+ "will not change" the risk weights
for Treasury securities and other securities issued or guaranteed by the U.S
. government or government agencies.
"The treatment of Treasury securities and other securities issued or
guaranteed by the U.S. government, government agencies, and government-
sponsored entities under other federal banking agency regulations, including
, for example, the Federal Reserve Board's Regulation W, will also be
unaffected," the regulators said.
【在 p**8 的大作中提到】
: Fed, FDIC won't change Treasurys treatment ( SP = SB)
| M*********t
发帖数: 257 | 7 Will this downgrade has any impact on how US repurchase market operate?
Do we need to worry about money market funds at all?
【在 p**8 的大作中提到】
: Fed, FDIC won't change Treasurys treatment ( SP = SB)
| p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 8 政府会让SP降级 没有影响
【在 M*********t 的大作中提到】
: Will this downgrade has any impact on how US repurchase market operate?
: Do we need to worry about money market funds at all?
| z*****x
发帖数: 2370 | 9 你当fixed income的人是傻子 看sp买债券？ rating agency从来都是behind the
curve,我们不当真的。 | p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 10 yes.
【在 z*****x 的大作中提到】
: 你当fixed income的人是傻子 看sp买债券？ rating agency从来都是behind the
: curve,我们不当真的。
| | | p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 11 发信人: p838 (挣钱快乐！), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 准备好啦 周1再准备1w刀输掉
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Aug 6 00:22:27 2011, 美东)
the rumors came out this morning, then big down, then big UP. | p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 12 S&P's $2 Trillion Error Didn't Change Rating Cut Decision
MARKET, DEBT, US, FED, TREASURY, STANDARD & POOR'S, S&P, DOWNGRADE, $2
TRILLION, MARKETS, WALL STREET, CNBC, STEVE LIESMAN
Posted By: Steve Liesman | Senior Economics Reporter
CNBC.com | 06 Aug 2011 | 01:05 AM ET
Told they had a $2 trillion error in their calculation of US deficits over a
10-year period, Standard and Poor’s scrambled in the afternoon Friday to
reconsider its historic decision to downgrade the United States government.
Sources familiar with the situation say S&P had to rouse several of its
European committee members from bed to hold an emergency conference call as
markets headed toward their close in the US.
The outcome: the agency affirmed the decision the committee had made just
that morning, yanking its triple-A rating from the United States and
downgrading it one notch to AA+.
The error and the time the ratings agency took to reconsider its downgrade
are among the controversies surrounding the ultimate decision to downgrade
the United States, which has held the agency’s top triple-A rating since
1941.
Also at issue is whether the new data shows the US eventually meeting the S&
P’s criteria of a sustainable deficit level and whether the agency should
have included state and local government debt in its rating of US sovereign
debt. Neither side provided the data Friday evening that was at issue.
What is not at issue is that sometime in the early afternoon Friday, S&P
informed the US Treasury that its committee had decided to downgrade US
sovereign debt. Ratings agencies typically inform issuers of their decision
before a press release is issued. But US officials quickly noticed an error
in the agency’s calculations. This resulted in a change in the projected
debt to GDP ratio. Instead of the 87 percent in 2021 miscalculated by S&P,
it should have been 79 percent, a roughly $2 trillion mistake.
Neither side disputes the error.
But there are different versions of how long S&P then took after learning of
its mistake to reconsider its downgrade. One source familiar with thinking
inside the government says officials were stunned when S&P returned just an
hour or two later and told them they were going ahead with the downgrade
despite the mistake. The source says this suggested the agency was committed
to the downgrade regardless of the data. The source adds that the new data
showed the US achieving a sustainable deficit in the ten-year window.
Yet, a person familiar with the thinking in S&P said the agency took
considerably more time and carefully considered the new information. It went
to great lengths to convene its entire committee and consider the matter.
This person says the conclusion was the same: while the rate of the growth
in debt slowed and was lower than first calculated, it never stopped growing
and became sustainable, the criteria by which S&P had said last month it
would judge the US. It had said it was looking for $4 trillion of cuts but
the debt ceiling deal produced only about $2.7 trillion.
S&P did not release data with its press release on Friday. But Amid the
controversy, it put out a statement after midnight saying that it's primary
focus in judging creditworthiness is 3 to 5 years, not 10 years.
In that time frame, the error only added 2 percentage points to the debt to
GDP tatio, or about $350 billion. "The primary focus remained on the current
level of debt, the trajectory of debt as a share of the economy, and the
lack of apparent willingness of elected officials as a group to deal with
the U.S. medium term fiscal outlook," the statement said. "None of these key
factors was meaningfully affected by the assumption revisions ..."
What the data will show is that S&P’s review of the United State sovereign
debt includes state and local debt. This is commonplace around the world
because in many countries local debt is centralized through the national
government. But government sources say this is not the case in the US
because state and local municipalities have their own political and taxing
authority to raise debt. No deal in Washington can change the amount of
state and local debt issued or retired.
S&P contends that it’s appropriate when judging the creditworthiness of a
country to include all the government debt since its all paid by the same
taxpayers. Still, it acknowledges that its methodology means an additional 1
percentage point of debt to GDP when compared to calculating just the
Federal government alone.
S&P says it had ample time to consider the situation, even though a deal to
raise the debt ceiling was only struck on Tuesday. Sources familiar with the
matter say Treasury officials wonder what the rush was and question whether
the ratings agency had sufficient time to crunch the data. They suggested
the error made by the agency shows it did not.
© 2011 CNBC.com | p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 13 Fed Officials Say It's Business as Usual
CNBC.com | 06 Aug 2011 | 01:33 AM ET
Federal Reserve officials publicly declared it was business as usual in the
face of Standard and Poor’s downgrade of US government debt, but privately
they acknowledged these were unchartered waters.
Within 90 minutes of S&P’s decision, a joint release from US banking
regulators declared that, despite the downgrade of US paper, there would be
no change in the risk-weighting of treasury bills, bonds and notes or any
paper guaranteed by the US government. In other words, banks do not have to
post any additional capital against their Treasury positions.
Regulators also announced that the treatment of US treasuries at the Fed’s
discount window would be unchanged. Typically, the riskier an asset, the
more collateral banks have to post to borrow from the Fed’s emergency
lending facility.
Fed officials met in the past two days to consider the impact of a downgrade
on markets. They concluded that, other than the unknowable impact on
sentiment, there would be little impact.
They suggested that there was not much money that would have to "
mechanically" sell treasuries because of investment restrictions. So they
didn’t expect much, if any, forced selling.
Even if there were, they concluded that interest rates were so low that any
potential rise in rates would cause little economic damage. They noted that
treasury yields actually fell during the debt ceiling debate with its threat
of default and downgrade because the US is still considered a safe haven.
In addition, they say that the S&P downgrade provides little new information
about the US debt situation that the markets didn’t have already. And
markets have been on notice from S&P for several weeks of a possible change.
But Fed officials acknowledge they cannot quantify the potential
psychological impact on markets of the downgrade.
© 2011 CNBC.com | l**********o
发帖数: 9952 | | p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 15 Aug. 6, 2011, 5:24 p.m. EDT
Don’t panic: Why S&P’s downgrade means nothing
Commentary: Washington still useless, Treasuries still a safe haven
By Jeff Reeves
ROCKVILLE, Md. (MarketWatch) — After the Standard & Poor’s downgrade of U.
S. debt, America now carries a rating of AA-plus instead of the coveted AAA
rating on its Treasury bonds. Austria, Norway, Germany and Australia are no
longer our peers ratings-wise — we are, instead, in the company of Japan,
China, Spain, Taiwan and Slovenia.
Market watchers have suspected a downgrade was in the works for a while. Not
to toot my own horn, but last week in my column about five ugly truths
about the debt ceiling, one of my takeaways from the deal was that a credit
downgrade was in the works regardless of the fact we avoided default. Looks
like my prediction, and the prediction of other financial journalists who
made the same call of a credit downgrade, didn’t take long to come true.
Read 5 ugly truths about the debt ceiling.
But now that the inevitable has happened, what does it mean for the market
and for individual investors?
Interestingly enough, not much. Washington is still useless. The stock
market will continue the correction that began two weeks ago. And Treasury
bonds, strangely enough, will remain a safe haven for investors.
Why this doesn’t change the narrative in Washington
S&P ain’t breaking any news here. Its reasons for the downgrade include “
political brinkmanship” in Washington. “America’s governance and
policymaking becoming less stable, less effective and less predictable than
we previously believed,” said S&P. It went on to say $2.1 trillion in cuts
“fell short” of the needed reforms. Shocking revelations, I know. Read the
full story on S&P’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.
While the downgrade is not to be taken lightly, it’s just a confirmation of
spending problems that have been slowly eating away at the creditworthiness
of America for some time. And for those of you who think this will shake
our fat-cat legislators by the lapels and wake them up… well, just look at
the quotes that emerged over the weekend.
Predictably, the GOP blames the Obama administration for the downgrade —
with Sen. Jim DeMint even calling for Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s
resignation. The Democrats are pointing fingers, too, with those pesky tea
party extremists to blame for everything. Read why Congress is killing jobs,
not creating them, on InvestorPlace.com.
Sorry America, but the downgrade is just the latest development in this
asinine game of chicken that Congress is playing to decide the White House
in 2012.
Why this doesn’t change the stock market outlook
And that outlook, in case you’ve been living under a rock, is ugly.
The state of the stock market was already grim last week before the U.S.
credit downgrade — and got worse after Thursday’s gut-wrenching slide that
marked the worst decline since 2008. All told, we have endured an 11%
rollback in the S&P 500 (SNC:SPX) across the last 11 trading days as
investors headed for the hills. Read about why there will be no rally
anytime soon on InvestorPlace.com.
So the biggest question isn’t how much the S&P downgrade is going to affect
the stock market on Monday, but how many dominoes will continue to fall as
part of the broader crisis of confidence. The downgrade surely won’t help
— but it’s just one more log thrown on the fire that is already burning
pretty darn hot.
Why this doesn’t change the safe haven status of Treasury bonds
The U.S. credit downgrade shouldn’t have much of an impact on the perceived
security Treasury bonds provide. Why? Well, consider the alternatives out
there right now.
Stocks? CDs that barely keep pace with the rate of inflation? Corporate
bonds or muni bonds that rank even more poorly than the AA+ ranking Standard
& Poor’s now applies to Treasuries? Not likely alternatives, any of these.
Read about 6 solid picks to dumpster dive for on InvestorPlace.com.
Investors haven’t stopped buying T-notes lately, and shouldn’t on Monday
morning. Just take a look at Friday’s news that the 10-year Treasury yield
dropped by the largest amount in one week since 2009. In the last month
alone, yields on the 10-year note has plummeted from 3.2% to a bit over 2.3%
.
Those aren’t exactly junk-bond rates. If folks were shunning Treasuries
then the government would have to entice investors with bigger yields to
offset the perception of bigger risks. Yes, the downgrade means that T-notes
are riskier than they were before. But relatively, they are a much safer
bet in the minds of many investors considering this difficult economic
environment. | p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 16 不要把没关系的事放在一起。
---
发信人: p838 (挣钱快乐！), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 沙特股市周六开盘，跌了5%已经
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Aug 7 09:13:26 2011, 美东)
和S&P downgrade 没关系！！
花点时间好好学习吧！ | p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 17 发信人: p838 (挣钱快乐！), 信区: Stock
标 题: 大牛们 不要在这 欺骗青蛙了。（无知 or 无耻）
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Aug 7 11:59:08 2011, 美东)
不知道你们是无知还是无耻。
无知:你们不知怎么看国际市场。
无耻：你们知到怎么看国际市场，可是你们在这欺骗青蛙。 | h******o
发帖数: 6113 | | p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 19 What was most responsible for this week’s record volatility?
39% Differing opinions of global economy.
16% Deciphering the S&P downgrade.
45% High frequency trading.
Total Votes: 931
http://www.cnbc.com/id/21013048/
【在 p**8 的大作中提到】
: Fed, FDIC won't change Treasurys treatment ( SP = SB)
| v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 20 大师，认个错很难么？
【在 p**8 的大作中提到】
: What was most responsible for this week’s record volatility?
: 39% Differing opinions of global economy.
: 16% Deciphering the S&P downgrade.
: 45% High frequency trading.
: Total Votes: 931
: http://www.cnbc.com/id/21013048/
|
|
