g****e
发帖数: 1426 | 1 It is way overdone. Dropped over 20% since last ER, slow growth and lower
profit margin are already priced in. Another over 10% sell off seems to me
is really overdone! Not sure it is caused by institutional/HF or panic
investors.
Just my 2 cents. Let's see how aapl will be traded tomorrow. | D******e
发帖数: 11265 | 2 5 Reasons Apple Could Defy Skeptics In 2013 Despite Q1 Earnings Miss3
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Apple CEO Tim Cook (Photo: Getty Images via @daylife)
Thanks to a rare earnings miss in its fiscal first quarter, Apple shares are
falling nearly 11% in after-hours trading, to $458, after rising almost 2%
Wednesday before the close. Investors were disappointed in particular that
iPhone sales weren’t stronger and that Apple’s second-quarter forecast
came in lower than analysts expected.
During the analyst call, CEO Tim Cook took pains to point out that the
results were “extraordinary” and that Apple would continue to focus on
producing industry-leading products. “No technology company has ever
reported these kinds of results,” he said in opening remarks. “We’re
unwilling to cut corners. This will always be the driving force behind Apple
. … Everyone here is laser-focused on creating an unprecedented customer
experience.”
Move up http://i.forbesimg.com t Move down
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Still, as the earnings call proceeded, investors grew even more bearish,
as shares that initially were down 4% continued to fall in extended trading.
Given the company’s and the stock’s incredible run in recent years, a
pullback may be inevitable. But there are several reasons to think that
Apple could do better this year than the skeptics currently believe:
* Its financial guidance may be purposely conservative: I’m not sure even
Apple cares to manipulate its stock price to create a buying opportunity, as
some analysts seem to believe. But it is customarily conservative. The
difference may be that at a time when doubts about Apple’s prospects are
rising and the stock is already off 30% from its peak, investors may be
inclined to believe lowball estimates and punish Apple for them.
What’s more, this quarter and going forward, Apple is changing how it
presents forecasts, moving from a point prediction that it was comfortable
it could meet (and which it almost always beat, by the way) to a range that
it’s comfortable it will hit. One analyst on the call, at least, was
struggling to understand how to interpret the change, and Apple CFO Peter
Oppenheimer didn’t offer much help, which may make analysts themselves more
conservative.
Competitive concerns aren’t unfounded, and no company hits home runs every
time. But it wouldn’t be surprising to see Apple outdo its own dampened
expectations once again.
* Recent reports that Apple has reduced orders to suppliers, assumed to
indicate that the company expected sales growth to ease, look iffy. Cook
himself said it would be “good to question the accuracy” of such reports.
He also said that any order changes could be due to other factors than
anticipation of slower sales, such as better manufacturing yields.
* New products look promising: Despite expectations that the iPhone 5 could
mark a peak for smartphone sales and therefore for Apple, it’s quite
possible that new products–perhaps aimed at the world masses who can’t
afford an existing iPhone–could delay a decline. Indeed, there are various
reports of a cheaper iPhone for emerging markets.
And that’s just the start. Analysts expect several new iPhones, including
one with a bigger screen–one of the chief shortfalls vs. Android devices–
for the next holiday season. Cook noted during the call that the iPhone 5
does feature a larger screen size, but not surprisingly provided no clues to
whether Apple might produce an iPhone with an even larger screen.
There will likely be a new iPad mini, perhaps with a Retina display. Not
least, rumors continue to swirl about an Apple television, and while I’m
doubtful that even if it does materialize it will mean significant sales
this year, even a new Apple TV device with better integration with live TV
and cable would create a lot of excitement.
Not least, it’s clear that Apple is willing to come out with products that
will replace its own if necessary, such as iPads supplanting personal
computers. “I see cannibalization as a huge opportunity,” Cook said on the
call. And clearly more products will continue to come, perhaps even at an
accelerated pace. “We’re working on some incredible stuff,” Cook said on
the call, for what it’s worth. “We feel great about what we have in store.
” Added Oppenheimer, “We feel very confident in our new product pipeline.”
* Apple’s ecosystem of standards-setting products, third-party apps, and
retail stores still present a fearsome competitive advantage. Apple said on
the call that it will continue to invest heavily in retail stores, which no
other rival has. And that operation has a new chief who replaced one that
Cook himself had appointed just nine months earlier, so Apple stores clearly
remain a big priority–and thus a big competitive edge.
* Tim Cook isn’t Steve Jobs, but he’s no idiot either: Another reason some
investors seem down on Apple’s shares is that some analysts aren’t sure
Cook can keep the juggernaut going without Jobs’ famous reality distortion
enhancement field. No one was better than Jobs at making sure Apple products
were elegant packages with magnetic appeal, and even when they fell short
of rival products, he was adept at deflecting criticism.
Cook has been criticized for failing here, either with clear mistakes such
as letting a faulty maps app through, or simply by not coming up with an
iPhone or other product deemed as exciting as previous models. Some say this
kind of thing wouldn’t have happened under Jobs, and even that Cook should
be fired.
That assessment seems both early and harsh, especially since Jobs didn’t do
everything right either. Apple’s size and the scope of its manufacturing
needs means that a strong operations chief like Cook is essential. And if
his more creative folks such as Jony Ives, senior VP of industrial design,
can continue carry on the design and product conception brilliance of Jobs,
that could continue to keep Apple humming.
Nothing’s guaranteed, even for Apple. And who knows what the company’s
share price really should be? Analysts are cutting estimates and target
prices. S&P Capital IQ’s Scott Kessler, for instance, cut his 12-month
target price from $665 to $600, but he’s retaining his strong buy rating.
“Despite results we see as disappointing, we view AAPL as having strong
franchises and growth opportunities,” he wrote in a note to investors.
Indeed, despite today’s rampant doubts, it seems premature to assume Apple
’s long run is over. | k*****a
发帖数: 1463 | 3 People always think after the market move, even these stupid analysts. When
AAPL is aggressively priced for future, the conservatively provide the
guideline. However, if AAPL is set to fail, they aggressively kept the
estimation.
AAPL has ran out of technology know how. It is software competition now.
Hardware is commodity, however, it is the gut of AAPL's profitability.
>>>
"
Indeed, despite today’s rampant doubts, it seems premature to assume
Apple’s long run is over.
"
--- what a piece of loser comment. When the "over" is seen, the price may
bottom out. | D******e
发帖数: 11265 | 4 he said it is premature to assume the over |
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