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发帖数: 11265 | 1 Apple's mixed Q1 2013 results: What the analysts are saying
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt January 23, 2013: 9:13 PM ET
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The analysts weren't as freaked out as the traders seemed to be
Note after-hours trading. It was worse a couple hours earlier.
FORTUNE (Koh Ngai, Thailand) -- There was mild disappointment here and
there, but most analysts reacted calmly to a holiday quarter report that
carved more than $50 billion off Apple's (AAPL) market cap in after-hours
trading.
A sampling of the notes to clients posted Wednesday evening:
Peter Misek, Jefferies: First thoughts. GM, and EPS exceeded consensus but
fell short of our estimates. In particular iPhone shipments of 47.8M (JEF
53M, St 48.3M) were disappointing. Typically conservative revenue and GM
guidance was better than many feared for, though implied EPS may be a bit
light.
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray: Quick Take On Apple's December Quarter
Earnings. While iPhone numbers were mildly disappointing, our initial look
at Apple's December quarter results does not sway our long term confidence
in the iOS ecosystem. The December iPhone number, which we believe is the
most important number for the company, came in at 47.8 million compared to
the 50 million buy side bogey we talked about in our previous note. For
March, the company guided to $41-43 billion in revenue compared to our
expectation for a $41 billion guide. Net-net, while we believe the iPhone
number may appear disappointing, the slightly better guide implies that
investors may not need to continue to worry about noise regarding continued
iPhone build decreases for March. Reiterate $875 price target.
Gokul Hariharan, JP Morgan: Guidance lackluster; prefer iPad over iPhone
plays and EMS over high margin components in supply-chain. We believe the
iPhone supply chain is likely to remain challenged through 1Q13, given the
sharp qoq unit growth for iPhone 5. Strength in iPad mini should mean that
the iPad supply chain should fare better in the next two quarters. With
clearer indicators of Apple moving towards mainstream products (already in
iPads and potentially in iPhones), we believe that it is also consolidating
the supply chain towards EMS players, which increases the profit pool that
EMS vendors can address, while cutting costs for Apple.
Ben Reitzes, Barclays: Apple Delivers Relatively in line Results, Macs take
away the upside – Outlook Mixed. Apple reported fiscal 1Q13 EPS (December
quarter) of $13.81, which was above our estimate of $13.38, above consensus
of $13.48 and above Apple's original guidance of $11.75. The beat vs. our
expectations was largely due to lower-than-expected operating expenses and
modestly higher revenue than expected. Revenue of $54.5 billion beat our
estimates by about $500 million due to slight upside on iPhones and iPads vs
. our expectations. However, many investors likely desired a few more
millions of upside in iPhones. It was downside in Macs that was the real
surprise – contributing to a $1.3 billion shortfall, likely due in part to
iMac shortages. We believe some of this Mac revenue is pushed into the March
quarter and would like to see better execution in this segment. Reiterate $
740 price target.
Brian White, Topeka: Apple Delivers its Signature Conservative Outlook. For
2QFY13, Apple expects revenue of $41 billion to $43 billion (Street is at $
45.38 billion) and inline with our $41.9 million projection. Our estimates
and price target are currently under review. As we indicated in early
January, we expect the next iPhone to launch in June (or possibly in May)
and we believe an iPad refresh (i.e., iPad 5 and next generation iPad mini)
is planned for March. Given this shorter launch cycle for the iPhone and
iPad, we recently adjusted the seasonality in our model and particularly for
the March quarter, which jibes with the outlook that Apple provided this
evening. Reiterate Street-high $1,111 price target.
ISI's Brian Marshall: Low-Priced iPhone is Paramount to Financial Re-
acceleration. Despite the ... penetration statistics for AAPL and the
horrific technicals in the stock, we believe the AAPL story isn't over quite
yet. In our view, AAPL should bring to market a lower-price iPhone (perhaps
wholesale price of ~$300 with GM of ~40% vs. the current iPhone family at ~
$600 and ~50% GM) targeted at the international markets in 2H13. If this
action were to occur (we think ~70% chance), it would likely drive
significant international iPhone adoption (from quarterly penetration rate
of ~4% in Dec-12 to more in-line with AAPL's domestic quarterly postpaid
penetration rate of ~8% in Dec-12). We believe the end result would be price
elasticity kicking-in and driving a new phase of revenue/earnings re-
acceleration and AAPL shares would likely get their "mojo" back. Lowers
price target to $600 from $710.
Trip Chowdhry, Global Equities Research: Quick Take. 1) Apple beats its
guidance. 2) The Apple Stock has been down from its near time high of about
$700 to now about $500, and in our view the Apple stock at $500 was
reflecting a miss to its guidance, which has not happened. 3) The only
explanation of the stock being down in the After hours market is the
dividend curse. Most of the technology stocks that have paid dividends have
underperformed the market. Reiterate $650 price target.
See also: Apple burned by analysts' overheated expectations |
