v***0
发帖数: 5096 | 1 年底打算rebalance一下，各位觉得挪到哪个基金上避险比较好？ |
J***J
发帖数: 6000 | |
v***0
发帖数: 5096 | 3 国债明年不知道走势如何
【在 J***J 的大作中提到】
: 我每个种类选一个
: 放那不管
: 都N年了
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 4 短期国债可以，长期几年利率要升，没戏。
股市在我看来，新兴国家基金是不二的选择。
【在 v***0 的大作中提到】
: 国债明年不知道走势如何
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J***J
发帖数: 6000 | 5 从来没选过国债
都是搞agressive的
large cap/mid cap/small cap
每个选一个growth的
外加一个emergent market(这个今年不行)
【在 v***0 的大作中提到】
: 国债明年不知道走势如何
|
B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 6 美国房地产指数很有前途。我喜欢TIAA CREF的Real estate，我有时拿它避险。 |
k******a
发帖数: 2436 | 7 Most likely none of the mutual funds available are safe harbor. Check "beta"
. The goal you have "避险", is best achieved with a low or negative beta.
Money market fund is not the solution. Money market fund nowadays has the
expense ratio in 0.15% - 0.50% that is far more than the return of 0.01%. It
is losing money for certain.
In my opinion (just my opinion, I take no responsibility) if you want to
achieve "避险" and sacrifice some growth you should diversify and invest
maybe 40% of your portfolio in (1) international stocks fund/ETF (2)
commodity ETF, and (3) possibly international bond fund
In my opinion one apparent trap is domestic bond fund in the coming years.
Their main feature is the interest rate risk. With fed rate at 0.25% they
already took a beating this year mostly due to speculation. Imagine what
would happen when fed rate is raised to normal level of 4-5%. The bond fund
price could approach near 0.
Disclaimer, I am not an expert and I was proven wrong many times. I am just
in a bearish sentiment these days. Good luck!
【在 v***0 的大作中提到】
: 年底打算rebalance一下，各位觉得挪到哪个基金上避险比较好？
|
k******a
发帖数: 2436 | 8 Be very careful about REIT, now is not 2010 any more. We are currently in a
mini real estate bubble. Just see house flipping is coming back. MBS total
asset is higher than pre-2008 levels.
Nobody learned anything from last bubble. Sometimes I wonder those experts
in FED are delusional or they always attempt to out-smart everyone. Risk is
pretty high in real estate securities. Your local real estate market is a
very different story.
【在 B**********r 的大作中提到】
: 美国房地产指数很有前途。我喜欢TIAA CREF的Real estate，我有时拿它避险。
|
B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 9 TIAA CREF的Real estate不是reit。
它更象房价指数。
http://www1.tiaa-cref.org/public/performance/retirement/profile
我在2008年10月底几乎最高点，把它全换成几乎到底的股票。
a
is
【在 k******a 的大作中提到】
: Be very careful about REIT, now is not 2010 any more. We are currently in a
: mini real estate bubble. Just see house flipping is coming back. MBS total
: asset is higher than pre-2008 levels.
: Nobody learned anything from last bubble. Sometimes I wonder those experts
: in FED are delusional or they always attempt to out-smart everyone. Risk is
: pretty high in real estate securities. Your local real estate market is a
: very different story.
|
k******a
发帖数: 2436 | 10 You mean you want VA in your 401k? I imagine they must have high redemption
fees? How does it work when you want to get out? I have no idea about it.
Insurance level is a personalized decision.
I would say the entire real estate sector is on a bubble (maybe smaller than
S&P). Definitely you should keep some asset in real estate as a hedge.
However you can get exposure through REIT funds or ETF; maybe that is easier?
【在 B**********r 的大作中提到】
: TIAA CREF的Real estate不是reit。
: 它更象房价指数。
: http://www1.tiaa-cref.org/public/performance/retirement/profile
: 我在2008年10月底几乎最高点，把它全换成几乎到底的股票。
:
: a
: is
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