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发帖数: 11530 | 1 If Scotland can secede, so can Texas
By Rick Newman September 10, 2014 2:55 PM Yahoo Finance
Global markets are suddenly jittery about the prospect that Scotland, after
307 years as part of the United Kingdom, could become its own country if
Scots vote for independence in a Sept. 18 referendum. If proud but tiny
Scotland can do it — which polls suggest is a distinct possibility — then
America’s 28th state, Texas, will certainly take notice.
If any state is fed up with the rest of America, it’s Texas. Republican Gov
. Rick Perry floated the idea of seceding from the United States in 2009,
though he later backpedaled. A petition for Texas to “withdraw" from the
United States, lodged on the White House’s “We the People” Web page,
gathered 125,000 signatures before voting closed in 2013. A group called the
Texas Nationalist Movement has nearly 190,000 likes on Facebook.
Even as a state, Texas has strong anti-federal leanings. It’s a hotbed of
Tea Party activity and has declined, so far, to participate in the
Affordable Care Act. Perry has called Social Security, the cherished
American retirement program, a Ponzi scheme. Freshman Sen. Ted Cruz, also a
Republican, wants to abolish the IRS. In lieu of a strong federal overlord,
secessionists want to form — or rather, recreate — the Republic of Texas,
which was an independent nation for a decade before Texas joined the union
in 1845.
The case for Texas existing as an independent nation is considerably
stronger than it is for Scotland. Here are some of the reasons Texas might
thrive as an independent nation:
It’s big. With a population of nearly 27 million and GDP of $1.6 trillion,
an independent Texas would be the 13th biggest economy in the world, between
Australia and Spain. That’s plenty of heft to play in the big leagues.
Scotland, by comparison, is puny, with 5.1 million people and GDP equivalent
to about $210 billion--which would rank around 50th.
Texas could lure companies from America. The corporate tax rate in Texas is
0, which would instantly make Texas the most tax-friendly country in the
developed world if it became a country. Instead of fleeing to Canada or
Ireland, U.S. firms seeking a better deal than the federal government’s 35%
corporate rate could just head to Dallas or Houston. Scotland, by contrast,
would have no particular tax advantages as a nation, since its tax rate —
21% for big firms — is the same as in the U.K. overall.
Texas has a healthy, diverse economy. It has energy galore, along with Big
Ag, a tech hub centered on Austin and a few corporate giants such as Exxon
Mobil (XOM), AT&T (T) and American Airlines (AAL). Scotland also enjoys oil
wealth due to long-established wells in the North Sea, but oil extraction is
declining and Scotland has little of the oil infrastructure or home-grown
energy firms Texas does.
Adios, Federal Reserve. Splitting from the United States would allow Texas
to wriggle free of the Fed’s loose-money policies, which have rankled Perry
and other prominent Texans. If Texas adopted a new currency, meanwhile, it
could make it as weak (good for exports) or as strong (good for egos) as
Texans wanted. Scotland will have to wean itself off the Bank of England if
it becomes independent, which is more problematic since the financial sector
is a bigger part of the economy in Scotland than in Texas, and Scottish
financial firms could suffer without the BOE’s implicit backing.
Independence would produce a few disadvantages for Texas, too. Here are the
cons:
No more federal funds. Texas gets a good deal from Washington, receiving
about 43% more from the federal government than its citizens pay in federal
taxes. If it were to become independent and lose highway funding, U.S.
military establishments and other types of federal spending, it might have
to impose corporate taxes after all. Scotland is in a similar position,
since it accounts for more public spending per person than in other parts of
the U.K. and would suffer a net loss if it became sovereign.
The Texas Dept. of Defense. Texas would have to establish its own national
security force to deal with problems such as illegal immigration, coastal
defense, terrorist threats and of course any territorial incursions from New
Mexico, Oklahoma or Louisiana. The good news is Texas has a well-armed
citizenry it can tap to form local militias. (Scotland doesn’t.)
Political opposition. Texas has voted Republican in every presidential
election since 1980. Losing the state’s 38 electoral votes would severely
impair Republican chances of retaking the White House in future elections,
which could make the kind of small-government Republicans who run Texas
intent on keeping the state in the union. In the U.K., leading politicians
want Scotland to stay, too. Threatening to secede is one way to find out who
really cares about you.
Rick Newman’s latest book is Rebounders: How Winners Pivot From Setback To
Success. Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman.
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